2. AGENDA
1 Introduction
2 Background
3 Event Analysis
4 Actions Taken
5 Conclusion
CT&T Capital
6 Appendix
CONFIDENTIAL
CT&T Capital 1
3. INTRODUCTION: Recap of Our Investment Strategy
CT&T Capital seeks to obtain an attractive rate of return through investing in long
term macro trends and focusing on key geographies and asset classes
3 Key Investment Themes Target Investors
Investors with high risk appetite seeking
Alternative Energy for high returns for an investment time
1 - Ongoing Climate issue horizon of 10 years
- Government Stimulus
- Technological Advancement Theme Funds Selection S$
Frontier Market 1 HSBC GIF Climate Change $1m
2 - Superior Growth Prospect
- Lower valuations in Frontier Market ING (L) Invest Middle East &
2
2
North Africa
$3m
Commodities FORTIS L FUND Bond Best
3 2
2
Selection World Emerging
$1m
- Agriculture: Increasing population and
decreasing arable land DWS Global Agribusiness A2
- Metals: Increase urbanization and 3
3
SGD
$1m
construction activities
Schroder AS Gold and Metals A
3
3 $3m
Acc SGD
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4. BACKGROUND: US and New York State
United States New York State
World GDP by PPP, 2008 Description
Gross GDP of USD 1.14tr in 2008
20.4% 16th largest economy in the world, 8th highest
per capita income
11.3%
53.0%
NYC – largest and most populous city in US
6.2% A global, iconic hub for
4.9% financial, cultural, transportation and
4.2%
manufacturing activities
US China Japan India Germany Rest of world
World imports & exports, USD trillion 2008 Top 5 industries of New York State
Exports Imports
16%
Japan 78 Japan 76 42%
15%
US 129 China 113
SE Asia 141 Germany 120
9%
China 143 SE Asia 143
10% 7%
Germany 146 US 217
Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing
- 50 100 150 200 0 100 200 300 Professional and technical services Health care and social assistance
Government All others
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5. BACKGROUND: Historical Disasters Analysis
Impact on financial markets is driven mainly by investor’s expectation, severity of
disaster and size/significance of the affected region’s economy
1 Investor Expectations 2 Severity of Disaster 3 Region’s Economy
• Unexpected events and • Increase severity would lead • Key economic regions will
mismatch expectations would to greater disruption and increase impact to financial
increase impact on financial recovery/rebuilding efforts markets
markets
•Sept 11 Attacks •Hurricane Katrina •Hurricane Katrina
Unexpected event which cause USD 82 Billion in property Gulf of Mexico contributes to
huge market fluctuations damage and destruction of over 50% of US gasoline
state‟s infrastructure production
Led to rise in oil prices
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6. EVENT ANALYSIS: General
We expect NY Windstorm to surpass Katrina’s total economic impact
Property Damages and Economic Costs Impacts on Global Markets
USD bn
350
? 1 Impact on Global Economy
300
- Key US industries affected
250
200 - Contagion effect to rest of world
150
150
109
100 81.2 78 2 Impact on Global Financial
35 41
Markets
50 26.8
0 - Capital Markets
Hurricane
Hurrican Hurricane
Hurrican Ike Sept 11 2010 NY - Equities, Bonds
Katrina Ike Attacks Windstorm
- Currencies and Commodities
Property damages Total economic impact
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7. EVENT ANALYSIS: Industry Analysis
Construction sector first to benefit from reconstruction efforts
Negative - Positive +
• Insurance: Increase liability claims • Construction: Reconstruction efforts and
increase in demand of construction equipments
• Financials: Disruption of operations of major • Consumer Durables: Restocking by consumers
finance companies and decreasing investor‟s risk
appetites
• Resources Mining: Demand for raw materials
such as base metals for reconstruction
• Tourism/Entertainment: Drop in tourist arrivals
and hotel occupancy
•Transportation: Reconstruction efforts would
involve moving of supplies e.g. trucking companies
• Aviation/Shipping: Disruption of airport and
seaport services
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8. EVENT ANALYSIS: Government Reaction
We expect central banks and governments to react swiftly and decisively
Sept 11 attacks Subprime crisis 2010 NY Windstorm
Monetary Monetary Monetary
Fed funds rate lowered by Fed funds rate lowered from Fed funds to be maintained at
175bp over 3 months 5.25% to range of 0 – 0.25% 0 – 0.25%
Quantitative easing and More special lending facilities
extraordinary lending facilities may be created / restarted
Quantitative easing
Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal
USD 40bn to fund relief efforts A total of USD 955 bn stimulus More fiscal stimulus in the form
package in 2008/9 of tax cuts, government
Further tax cuts and stimulus expenditures etc.
bill were made in Q1, 2002 TARP fund. USD 700 bn used
specifically for financial Specific programs for property
institutions and business owners
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CT&T Capital 7
9. EVENT ANALYSIS: Immediate Impact
Analysis of past disasters – Sept 11 Attacks and Hurricane Katrina
Sept 11 Attacks Hurricane Katrina
110
120
Gold rose
4.2% from 10- Gold remains
17 Sept 105 stable
115
Oil suffers a Oil went up
100 3% from 23-28
large drop in
the aftermath 110 Aug
of event 95 Metals went
up 10% in 4
Equities went 105 weeks after 23
down an 90 Aug
average 5%
globally when 100 Equities
US Markets 85 remains
first open on stable
17 Sept
80 95
Year Year
2001 2005
23 Aug 2005: Hurricane struck Bahamas
Market closes from 11-16 Sep 2001
28 Aug 2005: Hurricane struck Louisiana
S&P 500 MSCI World MSCI Emerging Metals Gold Oil
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10. EVENT ANALYSIS: Immediate Impact
Market volatility increases, gold has upside potential whereas broad equities
indices and oil fall
Commodities Impact Reasons/ Market Speculations
Gold Flight to safety
Oil Slow down of US economy
Base Metals Reconstruction efforts
Equities Impact Reasons
US Equities
Global Equities US economic impact spreads globally
Emerging/Frontier Equities
Currency Impact Reasons
US Dollar Index Selling of US assets, economic growth stalls
Fixed Income Impact Reasons
US Treasuries NA Historically not closely correlated
Global Treasuries NA
Market Volatlity Impact Reasons
VIX Index Market volatility increases due to uncertainty
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11. ADDITION #1: Fullerton Global Bond Fund (FGLOB)
The Fund has the flexibility to invest in sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, REITs and other fixed
income instruments. The Fund Manager may invest in futures and derivatives for hedging purposes
and efficient portfolio management.
Reasons for Inclusion Fund description
Lowest Annual Expense Ratio Asset Allocation – Credit Ratings
1 The fund has the lowest annual
expense ratio (0.36%) among its 12
peers (average of 5.8%)
Low Risk
2 48% of portfolio in AAA rating bonds
Currency exposure
3 Relatively low exposure to USD
•Only 24.4% in USD (Rare for low risk
bond denominated funds)
Offers a great hedge to our current
portfolio amid volatile period
Source: Fund Factsheet (Dec 2009)
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12. ADDITION #2: Global Construction Portfolio
4 stocks to invest to capitalize on the reconstruction efforts
1 3
• Relevant experience as the only • Good long-term relationships with
construction company working at governments and contractors
both the Pentagon and WTC disaster • Ability to take on contract risks and
sites during 9/11 stress test projects
• Debt free • Debt-free
2 4
• World's largest manufacturer of • World„s 8th largest construction
construction equipment company
• Strong business model, consistent • Key markets in US
positive free cash flow • Low debt/equity level (c.15%) and
High ROE (c.18.4%)
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13. SUMMARY OF IMMEDIATE ACTIONS TAKEN
We seek to take advantage of event-driven opportunities
Portfolio Allocation
Immediate
Theme Funds Selection Current
Action
Alternative
HSBC GIF Climate Change $2m $0.5m
Energy
Frontier Markets
ING MENA $3m $1.5m
(Equities)
Frontier Markets
FORTIS Emerging Bond $1m $0.5m
(Bonds)
Commodities
DWS Global Agribusiness $1m $1m
(Agriculture)
Commodities
Schroder Gold and Metals $3m $4.5m
(Gold & Metals)
Safe Assets
Fullerton Global Bond - $1m
(NEW)
Construction 4 Global Construction
- $1m
Equities (NEW) Companies
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14. EVENT ANALYSIS: Med to Long Term Impact
We are positive on the economic recovery story as markets stabilize
V-shape Recovery
1 Emerging Markets to recover faster than US
US Government increase fiscal spending
2 US Government to issue more debt to fund reconstruction, stimulate economy
Downside pressure on US dollars
Commodities – Gold to correct, demand for base metals strong
3
Gold prices to correct as market conditions stabilize
Base metal fundamentals to be strong due to emerging market growth
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15. EVENT ANALYSIS: Med to Long Term Impact on Funds
Our portfolio would revert largely to our original 3 key investment themes
We expect lesser climate change
1 HSBC GIF Climate Change
commitments from Gov‟t
2 ING MENA
Emerging markets to recover faster
3 FORTIS Emerging Bond
4 DWS Agribusiness Agriculture fundamentals remain intact
Industrialization & Urbanization gather
5 SCHRODER Gold & Metals
momentum
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16. SUMMARY OF POST EVENT ACTIONS TAKEN
We seek to maximise returns on long term macro trends
Portfolio Allocation
Immediate
Theme Funds Selection Current Post Event
Action
Alternative
HSBC GIF Climate Change $2m $0.5m $1m
Energy
Frontier Markets
ING MENA $3m $1.5m $3m
(Equities)
Frontier Markets
FORTIS Emerging Bond $1m $0.5m $2m
(Bonds)
Commodities
DWS Global Agribusiness $1m $1m $1m
(Agriculture)
Commodities
Schroder Gold and Metals $3m $4.5m $3m
(Gold & Metals)
Safe Assets
Fullerton Global Bond - $1m -
(NEW)
Construction 4 Global Construction
- $1m -
Equities (NEW) Companies
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17. CONCLUSION
We adopt an opportunistic approach in the immediate aftermath of the windstorm
S$‟m Portfolio Allocation*
6
Agriculture 5
Metals & Gold 4
Frontier
3
Climate
Treasuries 2
Construction 1
0
Pre-Event
Pre-Event Reaction
Reaction Market Stabilise
Market Stabilize
Capitalize on
Ride on Economic Economic recovery
reconstruction
recovery especially story continues in
efforts
on Emerging Emerging Market
Investment Theme
economies
Underweight on
Global Equities
Overweight on
Metals & Gold
*Our present portfolio allocation is based on our base case scenario analysis
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18. CONCLUSION
3 investment themes for the next decade
Climate Change Frontier Markets Agriculture and Metals
High potential returns from High potential returns from low High potential returns from
increasing investments and base, low PE rising urbanization and
government support in population
alternative energies
MPT + Optimize Sharpe ratio
Fund with strong capability and potential of generating the alpha performance in the next decade
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19. CT&T Capital
The alpha to your investment needs
Q&A
CT&T Capital
CONFIDENTIAL
CT&T Capital 18
20. Appendix
Event
CT&T Capital
CONFIDENTIAL
CT&T Capital 19
21. SCENARIO ANALYSIS: Immediate Actions
We seek to maximise returns on long term macro trends
Portfolio Allocation
Theme Funds Selection Pessimistic Base Optimistic
Alternative
HSBC GIF Climate Change - $0.5m $1m
Energy
Frontier Markets
ING MENA - $1.5m $3m
(Equities)
Frontier Markets
FORTIS Emerging Bond - $0.5m $1m
(Bonds)
Commodities
DWS Global Agribusiness $1m $1m $1m
(Agriculture)
Commodities
Schroder Gold and Metals $4m $4.5m $3m
(Gold & Metals)
Safe Assets
Fullerton Global Bond $5m $1m -
(NEW)
Construction 4 Global Construction
- $1m S1m
Equities (NEW) Companies
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22. SCENARIO ANALYSIS: Med to Long Term
We seek to maximise returns on long term macro trends
Portfolio Allocation
Theme Funds Selection Pessimistic Base Optimistic
Alternative
HSBC GIF Climate Change - $1m $2m
Energy
Frontier Markets
ING MENA $1m $3m $3m
(Equities)
Frontier Markets
FORTIS Emerging Bond $1m $2m $1m
(Bonds)
Commodities
DWS Global Agribusiness $1m $1m $1m
(Agriculture)
Commodities
Schroder Gold and Metals $4m $3m $3m
(Gold & Metals)
Safe Assets
Fullerton Global Bond $3m - -
(NEW)
Construction 4 Global Construction
- - -
Equities (NEW) Companies
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23. New York State
Profile
Demographics and Social Economic
3rd most populous state in the US, estimated Gross GDP of USD 1.14tr in 2008
pop. of 19.5m as of July 2009 16th largest economy in the world, 8th highest
per capita income
Highly urbanised. 92% of residents living in
urban areas Projected state deficit of USD 8.2bn in
2010/2011
New York City Top five industries as percent of GDP, 2008
Geographically largest city in the state and
16%
most populous in the US
43% 15%
A global hub for
financial, cultural, transportation and 10% 7%
9%
manufacturing activities
Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional and technical services Health care and social assistance
Location of the NYSE, largest stock Government All others
exchange in the world Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce
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22
24. United States
Profile
GDP in PPP and nominal $ Economic
Current USD PPP
Largest national GDP in the world –
23% 20%
USD14.4 trillion
51% 7% 54% 11%
6% 5%
8%
4%
5%
6%
Largest importer of goods and 3rd largest
exporter in the world
US China Japan France Germany Rest US China Japan India Germany Rest
Services contribute 67.8% of GDP in 2009
3rd largest producer of oil in the world and
Global exports largest importer
[] World‟s top producer of corn and soybeans
9.2%
10.2%
5.6% NYSE – world‟s largest by dollar volume
60.5%
4.3% Budget deficit of 9.8% of GDP
10.3%
Gross national debt in 2009: 83.4% of GDP
US China Japan France Germany Rest
_____ CONFIDENTIAL
23
25. Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina (Aug 2005) - 4th most severe hurricane and greatest economic damage
What Happened?
• Worst affected states in US: Louisiana (Ranked
24th in Gross State Product in US), Mississippi
(Ranked 35th), Alabama (Ranked 25th)
•Total Fatalities: 1,836 confirmed, 705 missing
• Total Damage to Property: USD 81.2 Billion
•Total Economic Impact: Up to USD 150 Billion
• Industries Affected (Immediate):
•Oil Production in the Gulf Coast (over 50% of
US gasoline production)
• Shipping (Bulk of US agriculture shipped
from the Gulf)
•Forestry (about USD 2 Billion loss)
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26. 9/11 – September 11th Attacks
September 11th 2001 - Most deadly attack on US soil since Pearl Harbor
What Happened?
• Main Cities Affected: New York City (GDP: Over
USD 1trillion)
•Total Fatalities: 2,973 victims
•Total economic Impact:
• GDP Declined in NYC: USD 27.3 Billion
• Insurance lost: up to USD 40 Billion
• Industries Affected (Immediate):
• Finance
• NYSE, NASDAQ, NYMEX, bond
market cease trading
• Tourism
• Airlines/Aviation
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27. NY State Disaster 2010
Worst Wind Storm to hit New York State
What Happened?
• Main Areas Affected: New York State
•Total Fatalities: Minimal
•Total economic Impact (Estimated):
• Damage to property: Over 100 USD Billion
• GDP decline: ??
• Industries Affected (Immediate):
• Finance
• NYSE, NASDAQ, NYMEX, bond
market cease trading
• Transport
•Airlines
•Shipping
•Tourism
•
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28. NY State Disaster 2010 – Damage to Infrastructure
Heavy damage to property, major sea ports and airports
• Main Areas Affected: New York State
• Property:
• NYC: $796.6 billion (2010)
• Major Airports Affected:
1. John F. Kennedy International Airport
2. LaGuardia Airport
3. Newark Liberty International Airport
4. Stewart International Airport,
5. Teterboro Airport
• Major Port Affected:
1. Auto Marine Terminal
2. Brooklyn Port Authority Marine Terminal
3. Howland Hook Marine Terminal
4. Port Newark-Elizabeth Marine Terminal
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29. Natural Disasters and Economic Growth
Natural Disasters: Short term economic pain but long term growth?
Sichuan Earthquake (May 2008) Case Study
• 80,000 dead, almost apocalyptic devastation in China
• Massive rebuilding effort and billions of dollars it would pump into the Chinese economy would far
outweigh the economic losses from the quake
• Bump up national economic growth by 0.3 percent
Other Studies
•Studies have found that earthquakes in California and Alaska helped spur economic activity there, and
that countries with more hurricanes and storms tend to see higher rates of growth. Some of the most
recent studies have found a link between disasters and subsequent innovation.
• Possible long term economic growth after initial destruction
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30. New Fund – Fullerton Global Bond Fund (FGLOB)
The Fund has the flexibility to invest in sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, REITs and other fixed
income instruments. The Fund Manager may invest in futures and derivatives for hedging purposes
and efficient portfolio management.
Fund description Peer comparison
Asset Allocation – Credit Ratings
The fund has the lowest annual expense ratio
(0.36%) among its 12 peers (average of 5.8%)
The fund has the 3rd highest 1-year return (12.3%)
among its peers (average of 5.38%)1
1 As of 19 March 2010
Geographical exposure Currency Exposure
Relative lower
exposure to USD
currency compared
to other low risk
bond denominated
funds
Source: Fund Factsheet (Dec 2009)
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CT&T Capital 29
31. New Fund – Fullerton Global Bond Fund (FGLOB)
The Fund has the flexibility to invest in sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, REITs and other fixed
income instruments. The Fund Manager may invest in futures and derivatives for hedging purposes
and efficient portfolio management.
Fund Description
Description Details Top 5 Positions % portfolio
Currency SGD France Government 4.25%
2.2%
Oct 2023
Manager Fullerton Fund Management
Bank Nederlandse
Launch 16 November 2009 Gemeenten 4.125% 2.0%
Jun 2016
Management Fee 0.75% (Annual)
Korea Treasury Bond 5.75%
Fundsupermart 1.9%
2- Low Risk Sep 2018
Risk Rating
US Government 2.75%
1.9%
Feb 2019
Bundes Republick
Deutschland 5.625% 1.9%
Jan 2028
Source: Fund Factsheet (Feb 2010)
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32. DJ Home Construction Index vs S&P500, post 9/11
Construction sector outperformed S&P500 strongly post 9/11 attacks
_____ CONFIDENTIAL
31
33. Caterpillar Inc.
Caterpillar Inc.. The Group's principal activities are
designing, manufacturing and marketing construction
machinery and engines. The Group operates through
three business segments: Machinery, Engines and
Financial Products. Machinery segment designs,
manufactures and markets construction, mining and
forestry machinery and related parts. Engines segment
designs, manufactures and markets electric power
generation systems, on-highway vehicles and
locomotives, marine, petroleum, industrial, agricultural
and related parts. Financial Products segment provides
financing to customers and dealers for the purchase and
lease of equipment, offers operating and finance leases,
installment sale contracts, wholesale financing plans
and insurance services. The Group's products are sold
under the brand names Caterpillar, Cat, Solar Turbines,
MaK, Perkins, FG Wilson and Olympian. It operates in
the United States, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia
Pacific, Latin America and North America.
Source: Worldscope.
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34. AMEC
AMEC p.l.c.. The Group's principal activity is providing
consultancy, engineering and project management
services to the energy, power and process industries. It
designs, delivers and maintains strategic and complex
assets for its customers. The Group operates through
four businesses. Natural Resources designs, manages,
maintains and upgrades production assets for a range
of oil and gas companies globally. Power and Process
designs, enhances and maintain electricity and gas
infrastructure in the United Kingdom, and power and
industrial plant in selected markets in North America.
Earth and Environmental provides environmental,
geotechnical, materials and water fields services.
Investments and others focuses on identifying sites,
undertaking environmental studies and developing
planning applications, site engineering and design,
economic modelling. In Nov 2008, the Group acquired
OEST Associates, Inc.
Source: Worldscope.
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35. KBR
Kbr, Inc.. The Group's principal activity is to provide
engineering, construction services, supporting the
energy, petrochemicals, government services and civil
infrastructure sectors. The Group provides wide range of
services through six business segments, Upstream,
Services, Downstream, Technology Ventures and
Government and Infrastructure. The Upstream
Downstream and Technology segment designs and
constructs energy and petrochemical projects, including
large, technically complex projects in remote locations
around the world. The Government and Infrastructure
segment delivers on-demand support services across
the full military mission cycle from contingency logistics
and field support to operations and maintenance on
military bases.
Source: Worldscope.
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36. SKANSKA
Skanska AB. The Group's principal activity is to provide
construction services related to building and civil
projects and in-house project development. The Group's
operations are carried out in four segments,
Construction, Residential Development, Commercial
Development and Infrastructure Development. The
Construction segment refers to building construction
(both non-residential and residential) and civil
construction. The Residential Development segment
develops residential projects for immediate sale.
Commercial Development segment initiates, develops,
leases and divests commercial property projects.
Infrastructure Development segment develops and
invests in privately financed infrastructure projects such
as roads, hospitals and power generation plants. The
Group operates in Sweden, Other Nordic countries,
Other Europe, the United States and Other markets.
The Group acquired Tekri Oy in 2008.
Source: Worldscope
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38. Global economic recovery is off to a strong start
Global GDP growth Global production and trade
%, qoq, annualized Annualized %, Annualized %,
change of 3- Industrial change of 3- Merchandise
Emerging and month moving production month moving exports
developing economies average average
10
25 Emerging and 80
developing economies Emerging and World
World 60 developing economies
15
5
40
5
20
0 -5 2005 0
2006 2007 2008 2009
2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
-20 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Advanced economies -15
-5 World
-40
-25 Advanced -60
economies Advanced
-10 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook update, Jan 2010 -35 -80 economies
• Following the deepest global downturn recent history, global economic growth has returned to nearly pre-crisis levels,
largely led by key emerging economies in Asia
• Global production and trade have bounced back, largely driven by the turn in inventory cycle in advanced economies and
normalization of global trade. Leading indicators such as PMI and ISM have all registered accelerating growth recently
• Financial markets have also recovered faster than expected. Money markets have stabilized and the tightening of bank
lending standards has moderated. Equity markets and corporate bond issuance have surged since the 2009Q1
• IMF expects GDP of most emerging and developing economies to rise about 6 percent in 2010 and a further acceleration in
2011. Growth will be largely driven by strong economic frameworks and buoyant internal demand
• Fiscal and monetary policies in advanced economies are expected to remain accommodative due to the still-low levels of
capacity utilization and low inflation expectations
• The strong revival of commodity prices is further evidence of the global economic recovery. Global demand, particularly
from emerging economies, will help support growth in commodity producers, for example GCC countries, Australia, Canada,
Russia and Brazil
• The high-upside potential underscores our recommendation in a high-risk, high-return fund
CONFIDENTIAL
CT&T Capital 37
39. Introduction
CT&T Capital seeks to obtain an attractive rate of return through investing in long
term macro trends and focusing on key geographies and asset classes
Asset and Geographical Allocation Target Investors
Investors with high risk appetite seeking
for high returns for an investment time
horizon of 10 years
Funds Selection Amount
* 1 DWS Global Agribusiness A2 SGD $1m
2 Schroder AS Gold and Metals A $3m
Acc SGD
3 ING (L) Invest Middle East & North $3m
Africa
4 FORTIS L FUND Bond Best $1m
Selection World Emerging
* Excludes Holdings on Schroder AS Gold and Metals
5 HSBC GIF Climate Change $2m
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40. Investment Strategy
3 Major macro trends which shaped our investment strategy
Alternative Energy - Inevitable Climate Change
The ongoing climate issue and eventual regulation on emission levels would lead to
1
substantial growth in industries involved with Climate Change. Government stimulus and
technological advancement will continue to make this investment attractive.
Frontier Market – The Next Emerging Market
2 Emerging Market will enjoy a superior growth rate compared to develop market in the next
decade. With BRIC equities looking increasingly expensive, we believe that the lower base
and lower valuations in the frontier market will be the best bet for high returns.
Commodities – The Rising Asset Class
3 We are positive with the outlook of agriculture and metal commodities due to the increase
in population coupled, decrease in arable land and increasing urbanization trend.
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41. Alternative Energy - Inevitable Climate Change
Climate Change debate is gaining momentum leading to strong growth for clean energy
•Climate Change Heating Up. Climate Change
debate is gaining momentum. Inroads were made
in Copenhagen Summit and more commitments
expected to be achieve in upcoming summits.
•Strong Government Stimulus. Governments
allocated more than US$ 430 billion in fiscal
stimulus globally to “climate change themes” and
US$ 177 billion of stimulus to clean energy in 2009.
Source: New Energy Finance
•Advancement in Clean Energy Technology. In
the past 18 months, price of clean energy has
dropped significantly. Government stimulus and
increased R&D efforts would make clean energy
more viable.
Source: New Energy Finance
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42. Alternative Energy - Nuclear Energy
Strong Growth Expected for Nuclear Energy
World Nuclear Generating Capacity by
Region, 2006, 2015, 2030
OECD Europe
President Obama‟s efforts to promote nuclear
140 energy would be a strong boost to the industry.
120 OECD North
America The recent US$8bn in loan guarantees for the first
Gigawatts
100
OECD Asia nuclear power plant to be built in three decades in
80
60 Non-OECD the United States was “only the beginning” as up
40 Europe/Eurasia
20
China to US$54 in loan guarantees is included in 2011
0 India budget request
2006 2015 2030
Rest of World
Source: Energy Information Administration In addition, countries such as France, Japan and
China’s Nuclear Electricity Power Generation in
especially China have increased their investments
kilowatt-hours in nuclear energy
70
60
50
9.4% of fund invested in nuclear energy related
40 companies and 3rd highest holding of fund is in
30 Exelon
20
10
0
Source: EIU 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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CT&T Capital 41
43. Alternative Energy - Government Stimulus
Clean Energy Stimulus might decrease significantly after 2011
Expected Clean Energy Stimulus Spending by Year, Almost every major government worldwide
US$ billions (% of total)Year, US$ billions (% of announced a fiscal stimulus package with
total) significant portion earmarked for „green‟
initiative
The flow of stimulus spending will strengthen
to around US$ 60 billion during 2010 and
drive overall investment in clean energy into
record territory as much as US$ 200 billion
Clean energy stimulus projected to decrease
sharply after 2011
However, with increasing political will on
climate change and more legislative action,
continual government support is very likely
CONFIDENTIAL
CT&T Capital 42
44. Fund 1 – HSBC GIF Climate Change
The fund seeks long term capital growth by investing in a diversified portfolio of
equities of companies’ developing activities related to climate change
Fund description Fund analysis
Geographical Allocation • Focus on Alternative Energy. Over 50% of fund
invested in clean energy and nuclear energy
production
• Exposure in key geographical areas. Main
investments in countries with strong growth in
Source: Fund Factsheet (Dec 2009) climate change industries
Industry Allocation
Risk analysis
• Reduction in government stimulus.
Governments face questions on how to stop
stimulus without causing the industry to suffer
• Increasing Interest Rates. For clean energy
industries, bulk of the cost to be borne up-front,
Source: Fund Factsheet (Dec 2009)
more sensitive to higher net interest than fossil fuels
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45. Fund 1 – HSBC GIF Climate Change
The fund seeks long term capital growth by investing in a diversified portfolio of
equities of companies’ developing activities related to climate change
Fund Description Peer comparison
Description Details % YTD Returns
0.00%
Currency SGD Schroder ISF Gb HGIF Climate DWS Glb Climate
-2.00% Climate Change Change
HSBC Global Asset
Manager -4.00%
Management
-6.00% -4.73% -5.02%
Launch 9 November 2007
-6.61%
-8.00%
Management Fee 1.50% (Annual)
1 As of 5 March 2010
Fundsupermart * Excludes performance fee of 10% of absolute return subject to a high
9-Higher Risk water mark
Risk Rating
% Annual Expense Ratio
2.05% 2.00%
1.99%
2.00%
1.95%
1.90% 1.85%
1.85%
1.80%
1.75%
Schroder ISF Gb HGIF Climate DWS Glb Climate
Climate Change Change
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46. Frontier Market- The Next Emerging Market
Exposure to Frontier Market is recommended for investors seeking high returns
List of Frontier Market Countries
Frontier market is a subset of the larger emerging market (EM)
Smaller, less liquid and less developed markets in the EM sphere
Categorized by higher returns, higher risk and lower correlation with the developed markets
Middle East & Africa Americas Asia Eastern Europe
Bahrain Kuwait Pakistan Argentina Kazakhstan Bulgaria Romania
Botswana Lebanon Qatar Jamaica Sri Lanka Croatia Serbia
Ghana Mauritius Saudi Arabia Vietnam Estonia Slovenia
Jordan Nigeria Tunisia Lithuania Ukraine
Kenya Oman UAE
Source: MSCI Barra (Sept 2009)
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47. Frontier Market- The Next Emerging Market
Frontier market provides attractive returns with cheaper valuation
Best-Performing World Equity Indices (2000-09) •Historical Outperformance in Equity Market
Economic, security and social developments across
these underdeveloped markets pose a great
catalyst to its equities returns
•Lower Correlation with the Developed Market
Correlation S&P Extended Other Developing and
with Frontier 150 Developed Market Indices
S&P 500
56% 75-95%
Source: Bloomberg Strong long-term diversification potential and ability
Average PE (2007-2009) to hold on its own despite an uncertain recovery of
the developed world
•Lower Valuations than Emerging Markets
Median Frontier Emerging Developed
Stock Market Market Market
Market Economies Economies Economies
Cap. over
GDP 24% 50% 88%
Source: ArabFinance, Bloomberg
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48. Frontier Market- The Next Emerging Market
Frontier market provides attractive returns with cheaper valuation
Worst-Performing World Equity Indices (2000-09)
•Historical Outperformance in Equity Market
Economic, security and social developments across
these underdeveloped markets pose a great
catalyst to its equities returns
•Lower Correlation with the Developed Market
Correlation S&P Extended Other Developing and
with Frontier 150 Developed Market Indices
S&P 500
56% 75-95%
Source: Bloomberg Strong long-term diversification potential and ability
Average PE (2007-2009) to hold on its own despite an uncertain recovery of
the developed world
•Lower Valuations than Emerging Markets
Median Frontier Emerging Developed
Stock Market Market Market
Market Economies Economies Economies
Cap. over
GDP 24% 50% 88%
Source: ArabFinance, Bloomberg
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49. Frontier Markets - S&P Extended Frontier 150
Index consists of the 150 largest and most liquid companies from over 30 countries
List of Countries
ME&A Americas Europe
Bahrain Colombia Bulgaria
Botswana Ecuador Croatia
Cote d'Ivoire Jamaica Estonia
Ghana Panama Georgia
Kenya Trinidad & Tobago Latvia
Kuwait Lithuania
Lebanon Slovak Republic
Jordan Asia
Slovenia The index uses a modified market capitalization
Oman Romania
Bangladesh scheme to ensure that no country has a weight
Qatar Cambodia Ukraine
Pakistan greater than 15% in the index and no security is
Kazakhstan
Namibia Mauritius over 10% of the index
Nigeria Sri Lanka
Tunisia Vietnam
U.A.E
Zimbabwe
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50. Frontier Markets - MENA
MENA region has the 2nd highest regional GDP growth forecast for the next 5 years
Egypt, with its diverse economy and large
World Nominal GDP Growth* population, coupled with minimal penetration
rates across sectors and low levels of leverage,
sets the scene for strong internal growth driving
opportunities
Qatar is the fastest growing economy in the
region with the third largest gas reserves in the
world
Saudi Arabia is one of the strongest domestic
* Measured in USD Terms
markets with one of the least geared GCC
economies
Oman, with its massive upcoming government
infrastructure projects, is pose to enjoy
stimulated growth in various industries
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51. Fund 2 – ING (L) Invest Middle East & North Africa
The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of equities in or with exposure to the Middle
East and North Africa market
Fund description Fund analysis
Geographical Allocation • Well diversified
• Strong catalyst for Internal Growth categorize by
large population (Egypt), low leverage (Egypt and
Saudi) and large government spending in
infrastructure
Industry Allocation Risk analysis
• Significant drop in oil price affected GCC
exports. Mitigated by strong Gov‟t reserves and
Gov‟t directives to diversify economy
• Dubai Crisis escalating. Mitigated by strong
balance sheet of GCC Gov‟t and its willingness to
intervene in stimulating the economy
Source: Fund Factsheet (Jan 2010)
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52. Fund 2 – ING (L) Invest Middle East & North Africa
The fund invests in emerging markets fixed-income securities with an emphasis on
long-term strategically driven exposures at the country level
Fund Description Peer comparison
Description Details
Currency USD
ING Investment
Manager
Management (Dubai) Ltd
Launch 13 January 2008
Management Fee 1.50% (Annual)
Fundsupermart
9-Higher Risk
Risk Rating
Top 3 Holdings
Equities Sector Holdings
National Shipping Co Energy 5.88%
Ras Al Khaimah
Industrials 4.26% N/A
Ceramics
Oman Telecom Co Telecoms 4.10%
Source: Fundsupermart
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53. Fund 3 – FORTIS L World Emerging Bond
The fund invests in emerging markets fixed-income securities with an emphasis on
long-term strategically driven exposures at the country level
Fund description Fund analysis
Geographical Allocation • Exposure into attractive emerging economies
• EM bonds are less co-related
• Narrowing spreads due to increased investors‟
confidence
• EM currencies upsides due to lower fiscal deficits
and public debt ratios
Fiscal Emerging Market Developed Market
Source: Fund Factsheet (Dec 2009) Deficits 3% 7-8%
GDP* Growth (2008-2014) Public Debt
40% 90%
Ratio
* Nominal GDP
# Countries include Kazakhstan,
Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil, Russia,
Indonesia, Peru Risk analysis
• Double dip recession. Might cause a flight to
safety assets. Mitigated by recent favorable
economic indicators and the willingness of
governments to intervene
Source: IMF (Jan 2010)
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54. Fund 3 – FORTIS L World Emerging Bond
The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of equities in or with exposure to the Middle
East and North Africa market
Fund Description Peer comparison
Description Details
Currency USD
Manager Fortis Investments
Launch 27 May 1998
Management Fee 1.50% (Annual)
Fundsupermart
5-Moderate Risk
Risk Rating
Top 3 Holdings
Bond Maturity Holdings
Elec De Caracas Fin B
04/2018 7.83 %
8.5 (Venezuela)
Argentina 8.28 12/2033 6.90 % N/A
Turanalem Finance Bv
01/2037 5.00 %
8.25 (Netherlands)
Source: Fundsupermart
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55. Commodities – The Rising Asset Class
The secular uptrend in commodities is underway
Cumulative returns since Dec 2003
• Outstanding historical returns.
% cumulative change Commodities have provided outstanding returns as
200% compared to equities in the last decade
150%
• Secular trend to continue.
100% Growing demand for commodities, particularly
50%
emerging countries will support this secular trend
0% • Exposure recommended for target investors.
Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09
-50%
Investors with greater risk tolerance and long-term
horizon should have exposure to this asset class
-100%
Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index • Agriculture and Metals may outperform.
S&P500 Index
We believe Agriculture and Metals will outperform
Source: Thomson Reuters/ Jefferies/ Bloomberg other commodity classes.
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56. Commodities – Global Agriculture
Fundamentals provide strong impetus for global demand boom in agricultural products
Demand and supply trends
Area (million Ha) • World’s population is expected to increase to
1414
World arable land area 8.01 billion by 2025 from the current 6.91 billion
1412
1410
• Global arable land is shrinking since 2005 due
1408
to rising urbanization
1406
1404 • Global stocks-to-use ratio have held steady,
1402 providing a fundamental support for prices
1400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
• Global demand for agri. products will rise.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Demand for this human necessity and key
%
alternative to energy resource will continue to rise
Global Stocks-to-Use* ratio in key
agricultural markets
*Measures the carryover stock over the amount used in the
past year. Gauges the relative supply/demand balance
Source: World Bank, 2009
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57. Fund 4 – DWS Global Agribusiness A2 SGD
The fund invests in opportunities at various points along the “food chain” ranging from agricultural
commodities to consumer products. Areas include land and plantation, seed and fertiliser, protecting
and irrigation, food processing and manufacturing companies.
Fund description Peer comparison
Sector Allocation % 1–year return1 % Annual expense ratio
80 70.9 70.4 4
3.47
70 3.5
60 3
50 2.5 1.98 2.01
40 33.51 2 1.58*
30 1.5
20 1
10 0.02 0.5
0 0
DWS Global Schroder DWS Global BNP Paribas DWS Global Schroder Golden DWS Global BNP Paribas
Agribiz A2 Golden Agribiz A2 Agriculture Agribiz A2 SGD Blossom Fund Agribiz A2 USD Agriculture (SGD)
SGD Blossom USD (SGD) Fund Fund
Fund
1 As of 5 March 2010
* Excludes management fee of 4.1% charged upfront
Geographical exposure Risk analysis
• Due to the focus on the agricultural sector, fund volatility is
expected to be higher than traditional global equity funds
• The globally-diversified nature of the underlying assets means
that currency risk is mitigated
Source: Fund Factsheet (Jan 2010)
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58. Fund 4 – DWS Global Agribusiness A2 SGD
The fund invests in opportunities at various points along the “food chain” ranging from agricultural
commodities to consumer products. Areas include land and plantation, seed and fertiliser, protecting
and irrigation, food processing and manufacturing companies
Fund Description
Description Details Principal Holdings % Portfolio
Currency SGD Monsanto Co. 6.20%
Manager DWS Investment S.A.
Viterra Inc. 4.30%
Launch 15 April 2007
Management Fee 1.50% (Annual) Archer Daniels Midland Co. 3.20%
Fundsupermart Agrium Inc. 2.60%
9-Higher Risk
Risk Rating
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59. Commodities – Global Metals
Base and precious metals display signs of strong demand and weak supply
Demand and supply trends of base metals
• Robust demand for base metals, the building
Global metal consumption
90% blocks of development, is supported by strong
fiscal stimulus spending on infrastructure as well as
60%
increasing urbanization
30%
0% • Precious metals seen as a safeguard against
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
geopolitical risk and are less volatile than most
Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel
commodities and equity indices, bringing
Tin Zinc Steel
diversification benefits to our portfolio
Global metal stock
300%
• Downward movement of global stocks of base
metals towards 1996 levels or below it are further
200%
evidence of continued strong demand for base
100% metals
0%
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
-100%
Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc
Source: EIU
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60. Commodities - Global metals: Gold
Unique properties of gold provide diversification benefits to our portfolio
Demand and supply trends of gold
• Spot gold price has went up by 20.7% over the
past year, surpassing US$1200/oz at one time,
fears of overvaluation of gold is intensifying
• Gold‟s role as a store of wealth and hedge against
financial turmoil has been tested and proven
• For the past 38 years, the world has been
engaged in a monetary system based on a single
currency – the US dollar
• Given the US‟s high budget deficit and debt levels,
more economists and central banks are calling for
the re-look into a new global reserve currency, gold
is the most viable alternative now
• Jewelry currently accounts for up over 60% of total
gold demand. As the economy improves, jewelry
demand will follow suit as well
Source: World Gold Council
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61. Fund 5 – Schroder AS Gold and Metals A Acc SGD
The Fund invests predominantly in a range of metal-related derivative instruments, principally
comprising futures and other commodity-linked derivative instruments (e.g. swaps on physical
commodities) and, to a lesser extent equities in metal-related industries.
Fund description Peer comparison
% 1–year return1 %
Asset Allocation 60
Annual expense ratio
52.78
48.78 2.5
50 2.05
1.91
36.36 2
40
1.5
30
20 1
0.4*
10 0.5
0 0
Schroder AS United Gold & General DWS Noor Prec Metals Schroder AS United Gold & General DWS Noor Prec Metals
Gold&Metals A Acc Fund CL J SGD Gold&Metals A Acc Fund CL J SGD
8% SGD SGD
1 As of 5 March 2010
* Excludes performance fee of 10% of absolute return subject to a high water mark
Portfolio exposure Risk analysis
• The volatility of this fund is expected to be higher than more
diversified regional/sector equity funds due to the asset class-
focus
• Nonetheless, the mandate for the fund not to employ leverage
or engage in short selling caps the risks for investors
• As most metals are priced in USD, hence the currency
exposure is mainly to the USD. The fund does currency hedging
as well, mitigating foreign exchange risks.
Source: Fund Factsheet (Dec 2009)
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