Global economics prospects

1. Global Economic Prospects
January 2022
www.worldbank.org/gep

2. Global Economic Prospects – January 2022
2

3. 3
Underlying data and charts can be found at
www.worldbank.org/gep
Global Economic Prospects – January 2022

4. Global Growth Forecasts
Substantial Slowdown
4
GDP growth
(Percent)

5. Regional Growth Forecasts
Slowing Growth in Several Regions
5
GDP growth, by region
(Percent)

6. Uneven Global Recovery
Weak Output and Investment; Lasting Scarring
6
Deviation of output with pre-pandemic trends by 2023
(Percent)
Deviation of investment from pre-pandemic trends
(Percent)

7. Risks
Multiple; Possibility of Hard Landing
7

8. Interconnected Risks
Higher Inflation; Tightening Financial Conditions
8
Inflation surprises
(Index, >0 = upside data surprise)
Financing conditions
(Index; January 1, 2021 = 100)

9. Income Inequality
Increase Across and Within Countries
9
Change in between-country income inequality
(Point change; annualized)
Change in Gini index, 2020
(Points)

10. Commodity Cycles
Dependence on Commodity Exports; Sharp Rebound in 2020; Larger Booms than Slumps
10
Commodity exports in EMDEs
(Percent of exports)
Energy prices and global recessions
(Percent change from previous year)
Amplitude of commodity cycles
(Percent)

11. Lessons from Past Debt Restructurings
Elevated Debt in LICs; Past Restructurings Offered Substantial Debt Relief
11
Government debt in LICs
(Percent)
Debt relief granted
(Percent of stock of debt)
Number of debtor countries included
(Number)

12. Policy Priorities
Measures to Ensure Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Growth
12

13. Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Policy Tightening Underway; Space Limited
13
Policy rates in EMDEs
(Percent)
Fiscal impulse in EMDEs
(Percentage points of potential GDP)

14. Climate Challenges
High Emissions Underscore Need for Green Transition
14
Change in greenhouse gas emissions
(Percent)
Share of renewables in global energy supply
(Percent)

15. Global Economic Prospects
January 2022
www.worldbank.org/gep
15

16. Select Publications by EFI Prospects Group
16
• Global Economic Prospects – January 2022
(January and June)
• Commodity Markets Outlook – October 2021
(April and October)
• Global Monthly
• One-Stop Source: Global Database of Inflation – July 2021
• Inflation During the Pandemic “What Happened? What is Next?” – July 2021
• The Aftermath of Debt Surges – September 2021
• A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic – October 2021
• What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami – November 2021