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Boston IBD Meetup
Rose and Thorn
January 11, 2023
John S. Pocorobba
rainkingbullbear@gmail.com
Twitter: Rain King@JPoco722
This presentation is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation or
guarantee of specific security or a particular methods results
John S. Pocorobba is an amateur, individual growth investor, not affiliated with IBD or Marketsmith
CAN SLIM Methodology for 18+ years
Attended:
Marketschool
Chart School
IBD Masters Program 4x
Founder of BlueSky Investing Event
All Presenters tonight are amateur individual investors.
This presentation contains registered trademarks of Investor’s Business Daily, Inc., William O’Neil + Co.,
Inc. and their affiliates: CAN SLIM®, Investor’s Business Daily®, IBD®, SmartSelect®, SMR®, Acc/Dis Rtg®,
Stocks on the Move™, The William O’Neil + Co. 197 Industry Groups® and MarketSmith®.
Boston IBD Meetup Announcements:
• February 7, Boston IBD Meetup:
Brian Shannon “Favorite Ways to Use the Anchored VWAP”
• J. Pocorobba, Molly’s World, March 25, “Model Stock Simulation: SHOP”
• Model Book Research: 2020 – ‘21 Winners (group project)
• J. Pocorobba - Two Part Series: Jesse Livermore: Roses and Thorns Illustrated
• BlueSky6 Investing Event – October TBD
• Have an Idea for Speaker? Meetup Topics? Email rainkingbullbear@gmail.com
Boston IBD Meetup:
• https://bit.ly/2p1GXbv
• Importance of Post Analysis
• Six Volunteers – Rose and Thorn
• General Mkt Update (if time permits)
YouTube: @RainKingLLC (latest Mkt Update from Jan 7)
Post Analysis, Risk Management, Trade Management
Best Practice #1: Conducting Post Analysis
• Handwritten, Paper
• Annotations on Digital Chart
• Video Recording: Can SaveTime (even use your phone recorder)
• Capture trade in your own words within a week (3-5min)
• Instructor Role; Describe the ‘play by play’ of the trade; Self Coaching
• Dump in a Folder and then review Quarterly
Boston Meetup Archives: Post Analysis Checklist https://bit.ly/2p1GXbv
© 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved
SELF AWARENESS: BEST PRACTICES
“The only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track
your trades and study your mistakes.” Jesse Livermore
Post Analysis
Critical Step to improving your results
Like watching paint dry…..
Analyze all your decisions
……trying to identify repetitive mistakes
1. Maintain a Trading Log
• Organize your Trades
2. Individual Trade Questions
• Where are the stocks now?
• Repetitive Mistakes,
• Lost Opportunities, New Rules
3. Portfolio Questions
4. Study Past Leaders
5. Detailed Checklist (posted)
https://bit.ly/2p1GXbv
© 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved
Simmons Precision 1964 -’65
Bill did extensive post analysis
One of the foundational
elements of CAN SLIM
Research the best past winners
Sell all on way up
“Climax Top” on
3/1 split. Do Not
Sell Short
Now have another qtr out and it shows 3 qtrs
of dramatic EPS acceleration from 25% to
67% to 175%. Must hold stocks that shows 3
qtrs. of accel and up 100% to 150% or more
thru the first real correction even if it has a
week or two of big vol first time selling
V.I.P Special Hold Rule
No stock can be extended no matter
what you or even your computer thinks
if it has giant earning acceleration for 3
qtrs. and you are only out of the initial
base by 9 or 10 wks!
© 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved
Post Analysis
Example:
Square (SQ)
Daily 2017
• (+) Bought perfectly from
Cup Base
• (+)Sold on Shakeout but
bought right back on fast
recovery
• (+)Sold Half Before
earnings report to protect
gains (+32% in 6 wks)
• (+) Recognized Upper
Channel Break sell signal
and sold another 25%
• (+) Recognized Climax Top
and controlled emotions
and sold the rest (+72%
gain)
Celsius (CELH) 2020
© 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved
Best Practice #2: Know what you have Actually Done
Plot Equity Curve, Exposure Levels vs. Nasdaq Index
© 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved
SELF AWARENESS: BEST PRACTICES
Exposure 110%
(10% margin)
Steep drawdown,
still 110%
exposure
(10% margin)
80% exposure
20% drawdn too much
Got scared.
Sold down
25% Exposure
Strong Mkt Rally
Slow to get back in
50% exposure. Felt
Fear
Late.
100% exposure but
market corrected
85% exposure (15%
drawdown)
115% exposure
125% exposure
Reduce to 90%
exposure. Flexibility
was a positive
Nasdaq Index
Your Equity Curve
PLOT your Exposure Levels on Equity Curve vs Nasdaq…….what can you learn?
Best Practice #3: TrackYour Stats
ExamineTrends, Strengths, Weakness
© 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved
SELF AWARENESS: BEST PRACTICES
2
0 0 0
4
0
2
0
1
7
6
4
12
13
8
3
14
3 3 3
1
2
3 3
1 1
0 0 0
1 1
0
3 3
2 2
0
4
0
1
0 0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Number
of
trades
Percent Gains-Losses
Distribution of Gains & Losses
Performance (closed trades) +53%
Ave Gain: 20.4%
Ave Days Held (Gains): 27.4d
Ave Loss: -5.2%
Ave Days Held (Losses): 7.3d
Dist curve needs to be moved to
the right
9 trades with losses >8%
Self Awareness: Know your Stats!
Self Awareness:
Entry Set Up Analysis
86% win rate
Pullback entries
0% win rate
Earnings Gap Ups
All VCP Trades
were winners
2023 Rose and Thorn
• Thank you to all volunteers!
• Self Improvement - Commitment
• “Rose” – Best Trade
• “Thorn” – Worst Trade
• Learning Lessons for All
2023 Rose and Thorn
• Greg Morton, Greenville Meetup
• Logan Moss, Houston Meetup
• Victor Rossin – Boston Meetup
• Steve Swetz – All Meetups, Veteran Can Slim’er
• Ashish Dave – Sunnyvale Meetup
• Ermen Abelgas – Tickermonkey
2023 Rose and Thorn
• Thanks again to all volunteers!
• Questions?
• Slides: https://bit.ly/2p1GXbv
• John’s Gen Market Updates
@RainKingLLC
rainkingbullbear@gmail.com
Twitter: Rain King @JPoco722

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Rose and Thorn - John Pocorobba 1-11-23.pdf

  • 1. Boston IBD Meetup Rose and Thorn January 11, 2023 John S. Pocorobba rainkingbullbear@gmail.com Twitter: Rain King@JPoco722
  • 2. This presentation is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation or guarantee of specific security or a particular methods results John S. Pocorobba is an amateur, individual growth investor, not affiliated with IBD or Marketsmith CAN SLIM Methodology for 18+ years Attended: Marketschool Chart School IBD Masters Program 4x Founder of BlueSky Investing Event All Presenters tonight are amateur individual investors. This presentation contains registered trademarks of Investor’s Business Daily, Inc., William O’Neil + Co., Inc. and their affiliates: CAN SLIM®, Investor’s Business Daily®, IBD®, SmartSelect®, SMR®, Acc/Dis Rtg®, Stocks on the Move™, The William O’Neil + Co. 197 Industry Groups® and MarketSmith®.
  • 3. Boston IBD Meetup Announcements: • February 7, Boston IBD Meetup: Brian Shannon “Favorite Ways to Use the Anchored VWAP” • J. Pocorobba, Molly’s World, March 25, “Model Stock Simulation: SHOP” • Model Book Research: 2020 – ‘21 Winners (group project) • J. Pocorobba - Two Part Series: Jesse Livermore: Roses and Thorns Illustrated • BlueSky6 Investing Event – October TBD • Have an Idea for Speaker? Meetup Topics? Email rainkingbullbear@gmail.com
  • 4. Boston IBD Meetup: • https://bit.ly/2p1GXbv • Importance of Post Analysis • Six Volunteers – Rose and Thorn • General Mkt Update (if time permits) YouTube: @RainKingLLC (latest Mkt Update from Jan 7)
  • 5. Post Analysis, Risk Management, Trade Management
  • 6. Best Practice #1: Conducting Post Analysis • Handwritten, Paper • Annotations on Digital Chart • Video Recording: Can SaveTime (even use your phone recorder) • Capture trade in your own words within a week (3-5min) • Instructor Role; Describe the ‘play by play’ of the trade; Self Coaching • Dump in a Folder and then review Quarterly Boston Meetup Archives: Post Analysis Checklist https://bit.ly/2p1GXbv © 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved SELF AWARENESS: BEST PRACTICES
  • 7. “The only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trades and study your mistakes.” Jesse Livermore
  • 8. Post Analysis Critical Step to improving your results Like watching paint dry….. Analyze all your decisions ……trying to identify repetitive mistakes 1. Maintain a Trading Log • Organize your Trades 2. Individual Trade Questions • Where are the stocks now? • Repetitive Mistakes, • Lost Opportunities, New Rules 3. Portfolio Questions 4. Study Past Leaders 5. Detailed Checklist (posted)
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  • 11. Simmons Precision 1964 -’65 Bill did extensive post analysis One of the foundational elements of CAN SLIM Research the best past winners Sell all on way up “Climax Top” on 3/1 split. Do Not Sell Short Now have another qtr out and it shows 3 qtrs of dramatic EPS acceleration from 25% to 67% to 175%. Must hold stocks that shows 3 qtrs. of accel and up 100% to 150% or more thru the first real correction even if it has a week or two of big vol first time selling V.I.P Special Hold Rule No stock can be extended no matter what you or even your computer thinks if it has giant earning acceleration for 3 qtrs. and you are only out of the initial base by 9 or 10 wks!
  • 12. © 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved
  • 13. Post Analysis Example: Square (SQ) Daily 2017 • (+) Bought perfectly from Cup Base • (+)Sold on Shakeout but bought right back on fast recovery • (+)Sold Half Before earnings report to protect gains (+32% in 6 wks) • (+) Recognized Upper Channel Break sell signal and sold another 25% • (+) Recognized Climax Top and controlled emotions and sold the rest (+72% gain)
  • 15. © 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved
  • 16. Best Practice #2: Know what you have Actually Done Plot Equity Curve, Exposure Levels vs. Nasdaq Index © 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved SELF AWARENESS: BEST PRACTICES
  • 17. Exposure 110% (10% margin) Steep drawdown, still 110% exposure (10% margin) 80% exposure 20% drawdn too much Got scared. Sold down 25% Exposure Strong Mkt Rally Slow to get back in 50% exposure. Felt Fear Late. 100% exposure but market corrected 85% exposure (15% drawdown) 115% exposure 125% exposure Reduce to 90% exposure. Flexibility was a positive Nasdaq Index Your Equity Curve PLOT your Exposure Levels on Equity Curve vs Nasdaq…….what can you learn?
  • 18. Best Practice #3: TrackYour Stats ExamineTrends, Strengths, Weakness © 2022, Copyright Rain King LLC. All Rights Reserved SELF AWARENESS: BEST PRACTICES
  • 19. 2 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 1 7 6 4 12 13 8 3 14 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 3 2 2 0 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Number of trades Percent Gains-Losses Distribution of Gains & Losses Performance (closed trades) +53% Ave Gain: 20.4% Ave Days Held (Gains): 27.4d Ave Loss: -5.2% Ave Days Held (Losses): 7.3d Dist curve needs to be moved to the right 9 trades with losses >8% Self Awareness: Know your Stats!
  • 20. Self Awareness: Entry Set Up Analysis 86% win rate Pullback entries 0% win rate Earnings Gap Ups All VCP Trades were winners
  • 21. 2023 Rose and Thorn • Thank you to all volunteers! • Self Improvement - Commitment • “Rose” – Best Trade • “Thorn” – Worst Trade • Learning Lessons for All
  • 22. 2023 Rose and Thorn • Greg Morton, Greenville Meetup • Logan Moss, Houston Meetup • Victor Rossin – Boston Meetup • Steve Swetz – All Meetups, Veteran Can Slim’er • Ashish Dave – Sunnyvale Meetup • Ermen Abelgas – Tickermonkey
  • 23. 2023 Rose and Thorn • Thanks again to all volunteers! • Questions? • Slides: https://bit.ly/2p1GXbv • John’s Gen Market Updates @RainKingLLC rainkingbullbear@gmail.com Twitter: Rain King @JPoco722