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Rose and Thorn - John Pocorobba 1-11-23.pdf
1. Boston IBD Meetup
Rose and Thorn
January 11, 2023
John S. Pocorobba
rainkingbullbear@gmail.com
Twitter: Rain King@JPoco722
2. This presentation is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation or
guarantee of specific security or a particular methods results
John S. Pocorobba is an amateur, individual growth investor, not affiliated with IBD or Marketsmith
CAN SLIM Methodology for 18+ years
Attended:
Marketschool
Chart School
IBD Masters Program 4x
Founder of BlueSky Investing Event
All Presenters tonight are amateur individual investors.
This presentation contains registered trademarks of Investor’s Business Daily, Inc., William O’Neil + Co.,
Inc. and their affiliates: CAN SLIM®, Investor’s Business Daily®, IBD®, SmartSelect®, SMR®, Acc/Dis Rtg®,
Stocks on the Move™, The William O’Neil + Co. 197 Industry Groups® and MarketSmith®.
3. Boston IBD Meetup Announcements:
• February 7, Boston IBD Meetup:
Brian Shannon “Favorite Ways to Use the Anchored VWAP”
• J. Pocorobba, Molly’s World, March 25, “Model Stock Simulation: SHOP”
• Model Book Research: 2020 – ‘21 Winners (group project)
• J. Pocorobba - Two Part Series: Jesse Livermore: Roses and Thorns Illustrated
• BlueSky6 Investing Event – October TBD
• Have an Idea for Speaker? Meetup Topics? Email rainkingbullbear@gmail.com
4. Boston IBD Meetup:
• https://bit.ly/2p1GXbv
• Importance of Post Analysis
• Six Volunteers – Rose and Thorn
• General Mkt Update (if time permits)
YouTube: @RainKingLLC (latest Mkt Update from Jan 7)
7. “The only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track
your trades and study your mistakes.” Jesse Livermore
8. Post Analysis
Critical Step to improving your results
Like watching paint dry…..
Analyze all your decisions
……trying to identify repetitive mistakes
1. Maintain a Trading Log
• Organize your Trades
2. Individual Trade Questions
• Where are the stocks now?
• Repetitive Mistakes,
• Lost Opportunities, New Rules
3. Portfolio Questions
4. Study Past Leaders
5. Detailed Checklist (posted)
11. Simmons Precision 1964 -’65
Bill did extensive post analysis
One of the foundational
elements of CAN SLIM
Research the best past winners
Sell all on way up
“Climax Top” on
3/1 split. Do Not
Sell Short
Now have another qtr out and it shows 3 qtrs
of dramatic EPS acceleration from 25% to
67% to 175%. Must hold stocks that shows 3
qtrs. of accel and up 100% to 150% or more
thru the first real correction even if it has a
week or two of big vol first time selling
V.I.P Special Hold Rule
No stock can be extended no matter
what you or even your computer thinks
if it has giant earning acceleration for 3
qtrs. and you are only out of the initial
base by 9 or 10 wks!
13. Post Analysis
Example:
Square (SQ)
Daily 2017
• (+) Bought perfectly from
Cup Base
• (+)Sold on Shakeout but
bought right back on fast
recovery
• (+)Sold Half Before
earnings report to protect
gains (+32% in 6 wks)
• (+) Recognized Upper
Channel Break sell signal
and sold another 25%
• (+) Recognized Climax Top
and controlled emotions
and sold the rest (+72%
gain)
17. Exposure 110%
(10% margin)
Steep drawdown,
still 110%
exposure
(10% margin)
80% exposure
20% drawdn too much
Got scared.
Sold down
25% Exposure
Strong Mkt Rally
Slow to get back in
50% exposure. Felt
Fear
Late.
100% exposure but
market corrected
85% exposure (15%
drawdown)
115% exposure
125% exposure
Reduce to 90%
exposure. Flexibility
was a positive
Nasdaq Index
Your Equity Curve
PLOT your Exposure Levels on Equity Curve vs Nasdaq…….what can you learn?
19. 2
0 0 0
4
0
2
0
1
7
6
4
12
13
8
3
14
3 3 3
1
2
3 3
1 1
0 0 0
1 1
0
3 3
2 2
0
4
0
1
0 0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Number
of
trades
Percent Gains-Losses
Distribution of Gains & Losses
Performance (closed trades) +53%
Ave Gain: 20.4%
Ave Days Held (Gains): 27.4d
Ave Loss: -5.2%
Ave Days Held (Losses): 7.3d
Dist curve needs to be moved to
the right
9 trades with losses >8%
Self Awareness: Know your Stats!
20. Self Awareness:
Entry Set Up Analysis
86% win rate
Pullback entries
0% win rate
Earnings Gap Ups
All VCP Trades
were winners
21. 2023 Rose and Thorn
• Thank you to all volunteers!
• Self Improvement - Commitment
• “Rose” – Best Trade
• “Thorn” – Worst Trade
• Learning Lessons for All
22. 2023 Rose and Thorn
• Greg Morton, Greenville Meetup
• Logan Moss, Houston Meetup
• Victor Rossin – Boston Meetup
• Steve Swetz – All Meetups, Veteran Can Slim’er
• Ashish Dave – Sunnyvale Meetup
• Ermen Abelgas – Tickermonkey
23. 2023 Rose and Thorn
• Thanks again to all volunteers!
• Questions?
• Slides: https://bit.ly/2p1GXbv
• John’s Gen Market Updates
@RainKingLLC
rainkingbullbear@gmail.com
Twitter: Rain King @JPoco722