Spillovers Into Morocco and Tunisia

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Spillovers from Europe into Morocco and
Tunisia, IMF, by

Reinout De Bock, Daniel Florea, and
Joël Toujas-Bernaté.
This paper examines the economic and financial linkages between Morocco and Tunisia and their European partners. Using structural vector autoregressions, we find that growth shocks in European partner countries generate significant responses on growth in Morocco and Tunisia. For Tunisia, exports and, to a much lesser extent, tourism appear to be the major transmission channels. In Morocco, exports, remittances and tourism play relatively equal roles. An analysis with sectoral data supports these results.

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Spillovers Into Morocco and Tunisia

  1. 1. ! ! ! "#$%%&'()*!+)&,!-.)&#(!$/0&!1&)&22&!3/4! 5./$*$3! ! Reinout De Bock, Daniel Florea, and Joël Toujas-Bernaté ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! WP/10/238
  2. 2. ! 6!7898!:/0()/30$&/3%!1&/(03);!<./4! =>?98?7@A!! ! ! IM F Working Paper ! ! ! 1$44%(!-3*0!3/4!B(/0)3%!C*$3!D(#3)0,(/0!! ! Spillovers from Europe into Morocco and Tunisia1 ! Prepared by Reinout De Bock, Daniel Florea, and Joël Toujas-Bernaté ! C.0E&)$F(4!+&)!4$*0)$G.0$&/!G;!H&I%!5&.J3*KL()/30M! ! N20&G()!7898!! ! Abstract! ! This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the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`*!-K13$%!C44)(**[!!)4(G&2Qa$,+U&)RW!43/$(%U+%&)(3a+$/3/2(*UR&.'UX2U23W! J0&.J3*G()/30(a$,+U&)R!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 9 !=(!0E3/Q!#3)0$2$#3/0*!&+!0E(!7898!Bb-1(4!=&)Q*E&#!&/!Economies of the Mediterranean and the Euro- Mediterranean Process!30!0E(!V/$'()*$030!>&,#(.!<3G)3!+&)!E(%#+.%!4$*2.**$&/*U!=(!3%*&!G(/(+$00(4!+)&,! 2&,,(/0*!+)&,!>30)$2$3!C%&/*&Kc3,&W!b3%#E!BE3,$W!1&E3,,(4!D3d)$W!H.3/!B3)%&*!H3)3,$%%&!3/4!"34&Q!b&.3$U! C%%!())&)*!3)(!0E(!*&%(!)(*#&/*$G$%$0;!&+!0E(!3.0E&)*U!
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  5. 5. ! ^! 5E(!#3#()!$*!&)R3/$F(4!3*!+&%%&O*U!5E(!+$)*0!*.G*(20$&/!&+!*(20$&/!::!#)&'$4(*!G32QR)&./4! $/+&),30$&/!&/!0E(!(2&/&,$2!#&%$2;!&+!G&0E!2&./0)$(*!$/!0E(!#3*0!4(234(*!3/4!0E(!)&%(!&+!0E(! -.)&#(3/!V/$&/!3*!3/!(P#&)0!4(*0$/30$&/W!3/4!3!*&.)2(!&+!0&.)$*,!)('(/.(*W!)(,$003/2(*!3/4!<D:U! 5E(!*(2&/4!*.G*(20$&/!4(*2)$G(*!0E(!cD>!4303!3/4!%&&Q*!30!2&/0(,#&)3/(&.*!2&))(%30$&/*! G(0O((/!0E(!4$++()(/0!R)&O0E!)30(*U!:/!*(20$&/!:::!O(!(*0$,30(!0E(!*#$%%&'()*!.*$/R!3!"fCb! 3/3%;*$*!3/4!O(!2E(2Q!0E(!)&G.*0/(**!&+!0E(!)(*.%0*!(P3,$/$/R!3/!3%0()/30$'(!$4(/0$+$230$&/! *2E(,(!+&)!0E(!*0).20.)3%!*E&2QU!"(20$&/!:f!3/3%;F(*!0E(!)&%(!&+!4$++()(/0!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%*W! OE$%(!$/!"(20$&/!f!O(!3)(!)(4&$/R!0E(!"fCb!3/3%;*$*!O$0E!*(20&)3%!4303U!<$/3%%;W!"(20$&/!f:! $4(/0$+$(*!3!/.,G()!&+!#&%$2;!$**.(*!$/!%$RE0!&+!0E(*(!)(*.%0*W!OE$%(!03Q$/R!$/0&!322&./0!R)&O0E! +&)(23*0*!+&)!-.)&#(U!"(20$&/!f::!2&/2%.4(*U!! II. BA C K GR OUND AND DA T A DESCRIPTION A. Economic Policy and Links with Partner Countries :/!0E(!#3*0!4(234(*!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!E3'(!03Q(/!*$R/$+$23/0!*0(#*!$/!&#(/$/R!.#!0E($)! (2&/&,$(*U!C*$4(!+)&,!3!*$,$%3)!R(&R)3#E$23%!#&*$0$&/W!G&0E!2&./0)$(*!3)(!*,3%%!&#(/!(2&/&,$(*! O$0E!$,#&)03/0!E$*0&)$23%!3/4!2.%0.)3%!0$(*!O$0E!-.)&#(U!5./$*$3!*$R/(4!3/!3**&2$30$&/!3R)((,(/0! O$0E!0E(!-.)&#(3/!V/$&/!$/!9ee!3/4!$,#%(,(/0(4!$0!$/!9eeAU!1&)&22&!*$R/(4!3/!3**&2$30$&/! 3R)((,(/0!$/!9eegW!OE$2E!(/0()(4!$/0&!+&)2(!$/!7888!SL&P!9TU!L&0E!3R)((,(/0*!3)(!#3)0!&+!3! G)&34()!3##)&32E!&+!0E(!-.)&#(3/!V/$&/!S-VT!0&O3)4*!O$4(/$/R!$0*!)(%30$&/*!O$0E!/($REG&)$/R! 2&./0)$(*!+)&,!0E(!*&.0E!&+!0E(!1(4$0())3/(3/!3/4!3$,$/R!30!0E(!%&/RK0(),!&GJ(20$'(!&+!G.$%4$/R! 3!-.)&K1(4$0())3/(3/!(2&/&,$2!3)(3U!5E(!$,#%(,(/030$&/!&+!0E(!3**&2$30$&/!3R)((,(/0*! #)&4.2(4!$,#&)03/0!2E3/R(*!+&)!0E(!0O&!(2&/&,$(*U!"$/2(!0E(/!0)34(!+%&O*!$/2)(3*(4! (P#&/(/0$3%%;!S<$R.)(!9TU! !C%0E&.RE!&0E()!+320&)*W!*.2E!3*!R%&G3%$F30$&/!3/4!*0).20.)3%!)(+&),*! 34&#0(4!$/!G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!3+0()!7888W!3)(!3%*&!30!#%3;W!0E(!$,#320!&+!0E(!3**&2$30$&/! 3R)((,(/0*!&/!G&0E!2&./0)$(*!3##(3)*!0&!G(!*$R/$+$23/0U! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !V/%(**!&0E()O$*(!*#(2$+$(4W!G;!(P#&)0*W!O(!./4()*03/4!(P#&)0*!&+!R&&4*U!
  6. 6. ! ! <$R.)(!9U!5&03%!:,#&)0*!3/4!-P#&)0*!! S1$%%$&/*!&+!V"DW!9ee8i788AT! ! ! "&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! -P#&)0*W!0&.)$*,!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!3)(!*$F3G%(!$/!G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3W!3%0E&.RE!0E($)! $,#&)03/2(!'3)$(*!G(0O((/!0E(!0O&!2&./0)$(*!S<$R.)(!7TU!b(%30$'(!0&!cD>W!(P#&)0*!3)(! *.G*03/0$3%%;!E$RE()!$/!5./$*$3!0E3/!$/!1&)&22&U!:/!2&/0)3*0W!0&.)$*,!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!3##(3)!0&!G(! ,&)(!$,#&)03/0!$/!1&)&22&U!<&)!(P3,#%(W!0E(!)30$&!&+!)(,$003/2(*!0&!cD>!$/!1&)&22&!$*!4&.G%(! 0E(!)30$&!$/!5./$*$3U!! <$R.)(!7U!"E3)(*!&+!-P#&)0*W!5&.)$*,W!3/4!b(,$003/2(*W!788A!! S:/!#()2(/0!&+!cD>T!! "&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! ! ! ! 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Exports FOB Imports CIF Exports to the EU (a) Morocco  Association Agreement  with the EU 0 10000 20000 30000 Exports FOB Imports CIF Exports to the EU (b) Tunisia  Association Agreement  with the EU 22.4 8.0 8.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Exports Tourism Remittances (a) Morocco  42.7 6.1 4.4 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Exports Tourism Remittances (b) Tunisia 
  7. 7. ! g! Box 1. Association Agreements (a) The Association Agreement Between Morocco and the European Union 5E(!-VK1&)&22&!C**&2$30$&/!CR)((,(/0!O3*!*$R/(4!$/!<(G).3);!9eeg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m34'3/2(4!*030.*m!)(%30$&/*W!3!,&'(!OE$2E!#)&'$4(*!R)(30()!322(**!0&!0E(!-Vk*! $/0()/3%!,3)Q(0!3/4!OE$2E!#%32(*!1&)&22&!3!/&02E!3G&'(!0E(!,(,G()*!&+!0E(!m/($REG&)E&&4!#&%$2;Um! V/4()!0E(!0(),*!&+!0E(!34'3/2(4!*030.*W!1&)&22&!O$%%!3%*&!#3)0$2$#30(!$/!-.)&#(3/!2$'$%!3/4!,$%$03);!2)$*$*! ,3/3R(,(/0!&#()30$&/*W!3*!O(%%!3*!$/!3!/.,G()!&+!-.)&#(3/!3R(/2$(*W!*.2E!3*!-.)&#&%W!0E(!-.)&#(3/!C$)! "(2.)$0;!CR(/2;W!3/4!0E(!-.)&#(3/!1&/$0&)$/R!B(/0()!+&)!D).R*!3/4!D).R!C44$20$&/U! (b) The Association Agreement between Tunisia and the European Union 5./$*$3!*$R/(4!3!G$%30()3%!C**&2$30$&/!CR)((,(/0!O$0E!0E(!-V!$/!H.%;!9ee!3/4!$,#%(,(/0(4!$0!$/!13)2E! 9ee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`*! )(R.%30&);!+)3,(O&)Q!O$0E!0E(!&/(!$/!#%32(!$/!0E(!-VW!#3)0$2.%3)%;!+&)!0)34(K)(%30(4!#&%$2$(*W!/&),*!3/4! *03/43)4*!$/2%.4$/R!$/!0)3/*#&)0!3/4!0(%(2&,,./$230$&/*W!322&./0$/R!3/4!+$/3/2$3%!*()'$2(*W!3/4!*030$*0$2*U! 5E$)4W!$0!#)&'$4(4!*.##&)0!+&)!*(20&)*!+32$/R!,&)(!4$++$2.%0$(*!0&!34J.*0!0&!0E(!0)34(!%$G()3%$F30$&/!S0E(! n,$*(!o!/$'(3.” pr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`*! 3'()3R(!*E3)(!$/!1&)&223/!(P#&)0*!+&)!0E(!#()$&4!788i8A!O3*!h8!#()2(/0U!<&)!5./$*$3!0E$*!*E3)(! $*!*%$RE0%;!E$RE()W!30!hh!#()2(/0U!5E(!-V!#%3;*!3/!('(/!,&)(!#)&,$/(/0!)&%(!OE(/!$0!2&,(*!0&!
  8. 8. ! h! 0&.)$*,!3/4!)(,$003/2(*U!5E(!3'()3R(!*E3)(*!+&)!0&.)$*,!)('(/.(*!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!&)$R$/30$/R! +)&,!0E(!-V!4.)$/R!0E(!*3,(!#()$&4!S788i8AT!3)(!G(0O((/!A8!#()2(/0!3/4!e8!#()2(/0U! 1&)(&'()W!0E(*(!*E3)(*!3##(3)!0&!G(!)(%30$'(%;!*03G%(!&'()!0$,(U! <$R.)(!@U!-V!"E3)(*!$/!-P#&)0*W!5&.)$*,!3/4!b(,$003/2(*!! S:/!#()2(/0W!3'()3R(!788i8AT! ! "&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*! ! N0E()!2E3//(%*!,$RE0!3%*&!G(!(P#%&)(4!0&!(P3,$/(!0E(!$/0())(%30$&/!G(0O((/!0E(!-.)&#(3/!V/$&/! 3/4!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3`*!(2&/&,$(*W!*.2E!3*!$,#&)0*W!+&)($R/!4$)(20!$/'(*0,(/0!S<D:T!+%&O*W! 3*!O(%%!3*!+$/3/2$3%!%$/Q3R(*U!b(R3)4$/R!<D:W!3%0E&.RE!0E(*(!+%&O*!3)(!R(/()3%%;!'&%30$%(W!<$R.)(! ^!*.RR(*0*!0E30!0E(;!)(#)(*(/0!3!#&0(/0$3%%;!$,#&)03/0!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%!G(0O((/!0E(!-V!3/4! 0E(!1&)&223/!3/4!5./$*$3/!(2&/&,$(*U!=(!2&/*$4()!E&O('()!0E30!0E(!(++(20!&+!<D:!$*!,3$/%;! *0).20.)3%!3/4!,3/$+(*0*!$0*(%+!$/!0E(!,(4$.,!0&!%&/R!0(),U!C*!*.2EW!$0!$*!%(**!*.$0(4!+&)!3/! 3/3%;*$*!2(/0()(4!&/!G.*$/(**!2;2%(*!2&))(%30$&/*U!! <$R.)(!^U!<D:!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!! SC'()3R(!788i8AT! "&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! ! EU 70 EU 79 EU 87 Other 30 Other 21 Other, 13 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Exports Tourism Remittances (a) Morocco EU 77 EU 85 EU 88 Other 23 Other, 15 Other, 12 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Exports Tourism Remittances (b) Tunisia 4.9 6.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Morocco Tunisia (a) In percent of GDP EU 80 EU 58 Other 20 Other 42 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Morocco Tunisia (b) EU share in total FDI
  9. 9. ! A! 5.)/$/R!0&!0E(!0)3/*,$**$&/!&+!*E&2Q*!0E)&.RE!+$/3/2$3%!2E3//(%*W!0E(!1&)&223/!3/4!5./$*$3/! G3/Q$/R!*;*0(,*!E3'(!%$,$0(4!%$/Q*!O$0E!$/0()/30$&/3%!,3)Q(0*U!L3/Q$/R!320$'$0$(*!3)(!+./4(4!$/! %3)R(!#3)0!O$0E!4&,(*0$2!4(#&*$0*!Sh!#()2(/0!&+!G3/Q*`!)(*&.)2(*!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!A8!#()2(/0!$/! 5./$*$3T!3/4!2)&**KG&)4()!+$/3/2$/R!$*!*,3%%U!:/!788e!*E&)0K0(),!+&)($R/!%$3G$%$0$(*!&+!1&)&223/! 3/4!5./$*$3/!G3/Q*!0&!(P0()/3%!2&./0()#3)0*!)(#&)0(4!0&!0E(!L3/Q!+&)!:/0()/30$&/3%!"(00%(,(/0*! SL:"T!)(#)(*(/0(4!&/%;!@U@!3/4!9U7!#()2(/0!&+!0E($)!)(*#(20$'(!cD>!S53G%(!9TU!1&)(&'()W!$/!G&0E! 2&./0)$(*!0E(!23#$03%!322&./0!$*!&/%;!#3)0$3%%;!&#(/U!"('()3%!)(*0)$20$&/*!3##%;!0&!0)3/*320$&/*!$/! +&)($R/!2.))(/2;W!+&)($R/!G&))&O$/R!3/4!+&)($R/!$/'(*0,(/0!G;!4&,(*0$2!+$),*!SL&P!7TU!! ! 53G%(!9U!L3/Q*`!-P0()/3%!D(G0!"030$*0$2*W!7888i8e! S:/!#()2(/0!&+!cD>T! !! "&.)2([!L3/Q!+&)!:/0()/30$&/3%!"(00%(,(/0*W!B&./0);!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!23%2.%30$&/*U! <&)($R/!G3/Q*!E3'(!/&/K/(R%$R$G%(!#)(*(/2(*!$/!0E(!0O&!2&./0)$(*`!G3/Q$/R!*;*0(,*U!13J&)$0;K &O/(4!+&)($R/!G3/Q*!322&./0(4!+&)!79U^!#()2(/0!&+!0&03%!G3/Q$/R!3**(0*!$/!1&)&22&!S788AT!3/4! +&)!7eU^!#()2(/0!$/!5./$*$3!S788eTU!5E$*!#)(*(/2(!,$RE0!#%3;!3!)&%(!$/!0(),*!&+!$/2)(3*(4! 2&,#(0$0$&/W!$,#)&'(4!G3/Q$/R!#)320$2(*!3/4!4$'()*$+$230$&/!&+!+./4$/R!*&.)2(*!G.0W!3*!$/!0E(! 23*(!&+!$,#&)0*!3/4!<D:*W!0E(*(!(++(20*!3)(!,&)(!%$Q(%;!0&!3##(3)!$/!0E(!%&/R!)./U!Z('()0E(%(**W! 0E(!$,#320!&+!0E(!&#(/$/R!&+!0E(!4&,(*0$2!,3)Q(0!0&!+&)($R/!G3/Q*!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!$*!3! *.GJ(20!0E30!4(*()'(*!3!,.%0$#%(K3/R%(4!3/3%;*$*!OE$2E!R&(*!G(;&/4!0E(!#.)#&*(!&+!&.)!#3#()U! ! ! ! 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Morocco  Liabilities to BIS banks 17.7 16.1 15.3 11.9 10.8 8.9 7.5 7.9 8.4 9.8 S‐T Liabilities to BIS banks 4.8 5.3 4.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.2 2.9 2.1 3.3 Tunisia Liabilities to BIS banks 7.7 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 5.6 6.1 5.7 5.2 4.8 S‐T liabilities to BIS banks 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.2
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  11. 11. ! 98! 5./$*$3 WTUN NA tg Ug !5E(*(!*()$(*!3)(!*(3*&/3%%;!34J.*0(4!3/4!3'3$%3G%(!&/!3!X.3)0()%;!G3*$*U!<&)!0E(! -VW!3!2&./0);K*#(2$+$2!2&,#&*$0(!cD>!R)&O0E!)30(! S TEU tg !$*!23%2.%30(4!3*!3!O($RE0(4!3'()3R(! &+!R)&O0E!)30(*!&+!0E(!,3$/!-V!#3)0/()*!G3*(4!&/!0E(!O($RE0*!0E(*(!2&./0)$(*!03Q(!$/!1&)&22&`*! 3/4!5./$*$3`*!(P#&)0*!&+!R&&4*!)(*#(20$'(%;U! 5E(!2&./0);!O($RE0*!3)(!2&/*0).20(4!G;!0E(!:1<!+&)! 0E(!c%&G3%!-2&/&,$2!-/'$)&/,(/0!Sc--TU!5E(!3##(/4$P!2&/03$/*!0E(!+&),.%3!+&)! S TEU tg !3/4! 03G%(*!O$0E!0E(!c--!O($RE0*!.*(4!+&)!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3U! 53G%(!7U!f&%30$%$0;!3/4!B&))(%30$&/!B&(++$2$(/0*!&+!c)&O0E!b30(*W!7888l9i788el^! ! ! WMOR NA tg ! S TEU tg MOR ! WTUN NA tg ! S TEU tg TUN ! S Ttg Oil ! WMOR NA tg ! 1.69 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! S TEU tg MOR ! 8U^g! 2.08 ! ! ! ! S@U79T! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! WTUN NA tg ! ! ! 1.59 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! S TEU tg TUN ! ! ! 8Ug@! 2.05 ! ! ! ! SU8gT! ! ! S Ttg Oil ! 8U9g! ! K8U8h! ! 14.60 ! S8UeAT! ! SK8U^@T! ! ! "&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! "03/43)4!4('$30$&/*!3)(!&/!0E(!4$3R&/3%!3/4!2&))(%30$&/*!&++K4$3R&/3%U!L(0O((/!G)32Q(0*!3)(!0E(!5K*030*!+&)! 0E(! /.%%!E;#&0E(*$*!0E30!3! *$/R%(!2&))(%30$&/!2&(++$2$(/0!$*! (X.3%!0&!F()&U! Oil!$*!0E(!*#&0!#(0)&%(.,!#)$2(! S3'()3R(!&+!<30(EW!L)(/0!3/4!=5:T!$/!V"q!*23%(4!G;!V"!B>:U! ! 53G%(!7!*E&O*!3!*0)&/R!#&*$0$'(!2&))(%30$&/!G(0O((/!0E(!R)&O0E!)30(* S TEU tg MOR 3/4 WMOR NA tg !3/4 S TEU tg TUN O$0E WTUN NA tg Uh !5E$*!2&))(%30$&/!$*!^g!#()2(/0!+&)!1&)&22&!3/4!g@!#()2(/0!+&)!5./$*$3U! "030$*0$23%!0(*0*!)(J(20!0E(!E;#&0E(*$*!0E30!0E(*(!2&))(%30$&/*!3)(!(X.3%!0&!F()&U!5E(!03G%(!3%*&! *E&O*!0E30!0E()(!$*!/&!*0)&/R!2&))(%30$&/!G(0O((/!R)&O0E!$/!)(3%!#(0)&%(.,!*#&0!#)$2(*W! S Ttg Oil W! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! g !=(!(P2%.4(!3R)$2.%0.)3%!&.0#.0!+)&,!cD>!3*!0E$*!2&,#&/(/0!)(,3$/*!%3)R(%;!4(#(/4(/0!&/!2%$,30$2!+320&)*!$/!G&0E! 2&./0)$(*U!:/!OE30!+&%%&O*W!./%(**!&0E()O$*(!*#(2$+$(4W!O(!./4()*03/4!/&/3R)$2.%0.)3%!cD>!OE(/!)(+())$/R!0&! 1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3`*!cD>U!! h !=(!+&./4!*$,$%3)!/.,G()*!OE(/!23%2.%30$/R!0E(!2&))(%30$&/!&+!1&)&223/!3/4!5./$*$3/!R)&O0E!)30(*!O$0E!(.)&F&/(! cD>!)(#&)0(4!G;!-.)&*030U!!
  12. 12. ! 99! 3/4!1&)&223/!&)!5./$*$3/!R)&O0E!)30(*U!5E$*!*.RR(*0*!0E30!0E(!2&))(%30$&/*!&+! WMOR NA tg !3/4 WTUN NA tg !O$0E!R)&O0E!$/!0E($)!-.)&#(3/!#3)0/()*!3)(!/&0!E$4$/R!0E(!(++(20!&+!3!R%&G3%!2;2%(UA ! III. ESTIM A TING T H E SPIL L O V ERS A. Identification Scheme =(!#)&2((4!O$0E!3!fCbKG3*(4!$4(/0$+$230$&/!*2E(,(!$/!&)4()!0&!(*0$,30(!0E(!$,#320!&+!3/! $//&'30$&/!$/!-V!R)&O0E!&/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!/&/3R)$2.%0.)3%!cD>!R)&O0EU!1&)(! *#(2$+$23%%;W!+&)!2&./0);!JW!0E(!'3)$3G%(*!$/2%.4(4!$/!0E(!G3*(%$/(!fCb!3)([!! W S TW kUEU j NA t t tZ g j g    ! 5E(!)(4.2(4K+&),!fCb!$*[!! WTkSW 9 VuuEuZBcZ p j tttjtjt    ! OE()(!2!$*!3!2&/*03/0!3/4! tZ !$*!0E(!,30)$P!O$0E!'3)$3G%(*U!5E(!)(4.2(4K+&),!)(*$4.3%*! tu 3)(! ,3##(4!$/0&!0E(!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*! t !G;!0E(!*0).20.)3%!,30)$P oA [! 8 Ut tA u  ! =(!.*(!0E(!$/'()*(!&+!0E(!BE&%(*Q$!+320&)!&+!0E(!'3)$3/2(K2&'3)$3/2(!,30)$P!V!0&!$4(/0$+;! *0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*!0E30!3)(!&)0E&R&/3%!0&!(32E!&0E()W!   IE tt k W!OE()(!I!$*!0E(!$4(/0$0;!,30)$PU! 5E$*!2&))(*#&/4*!0&!0E(!3**.,#0$&/!0E30!&/!$,#320!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*!$/!5./$*$3!E3'(!3!F()&!(++(20! &/!*E&2Q*!$/!-.)&#(3/!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*U!:0!$*!$,#&)03/0!0&!/&0(!0E30!2E3/R$/R!0E(!&)4()$/R!&+!0E(! '3)$3G%(*!$/!Z!4$4!/&0!2E3/R(!&.)!)(*.%0*U! B. Responses to External Growth Shock <&)!(32E!2&./0);!O(!.*(!0E(!%&/R(*0!3'3$%3G%(!X.3)0()%;!4303!+&)!0E(!fCb!(*0$,30$&/U!<&)! 1&)&22&W!0E(!*3,#%(!2&'()*!0E(!#()$&4!9ee8l9!0&!788el^W!OE()(3*!+&)!5./$*$3!0E(!4303*(0!$*! +)&,!7888l9!0&!788el^U!e !D(*#$0(!2&'()$/R!3!)(%30$'(%;!*E&)0!0$,(!*#3/W!0E(*(!4303*(0*!3%%&O!.*! 0&!23#0.)(!0E(!)(2(/0!#()$&4!&+!E$RE!R)&O0E!O$0E!$,#&)03/0!*0).20.)3%!2E3/R(*!+&%%&O(4!G;!0E(! 34'()*(!*E&2Q!&+!788Ai8eU!=(!$/2%.4(!0O&!%3R*!$/!0E(!(*0$,30(4!fCb*U!C22&)4$/R!0&!0E(! "2EO3)F!$/+&),30$&/!2)$0()$3W!0E$*!$*!0E(!&#0$,3%!%3R!%(/R0E!+&)!G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3U! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A !5K0(*0*!3%*&!+3$%!0&!)(J(20!0E(!E;#&0E(*$*!0E30!2&))(%30$&/*!&+!1&)&223/!&)!5./$*$3/!cD>!R)&O0E!)30(*!O$0E!V"!)(3%! cD>!R)&O0E!3)(!*$R/$+$23/0%;!4$++()(/0!+)&,!F()&U! e !"$,.%30$&/*!)./!+&)!1&)&22&!&/!0E(!7888l9i788el^!0$,(!$/0()'3%!%(34!0&!'();!*$,$%3)!)(*.%0*!0&!0E(!&/(*! #)(*(/0(4!$/!0E$*!#3#()U!
  13. 13. ! 97! <$R.)(!!*E&O*!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(!+./20$&/!S:b<*T!&+!R)&O0E!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!0&!3!&/(! *03/43)4!4('$30$&/!*E&2Q!$/!0E(!R)&O0E!&+!cD>!$/!0E(!(2&/&,$2!#3)0/()*U!5E(!R)3#E!3%*&!$/2%.4(*! *03/43)4!())&)!G3/4*!(/2&,#3**$/R!0E(!e!#()2(/0!2&/+$4(/2(!$/0()'3%U!5E(!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(!&+! G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!cD>!R)&O0E!0&!-V!cD>!R)&O0E!$*!*$R/$+$23/0%;!4$++()(/0!+)&,!F()&!$/! 0E(!+$)*0!+&.)!X.3)0()*U!C!'3)$30$&/!&+!&/(!#()2(/03R(!#&$/0!$/!-V!cD>!R)&O0E!#)&4.2(*!3!*$,$%3)! #(3Q!)(*#&/*(!$/!1&)&22&!S8Ue!$/!0E(!*(2&/4!X.3)0()T!2&,#3)(4!0&!5./$*$3!S8Ug7!$/!0E(!0E$)4! X.3)0()T!G.0!R(/()30(*!3!,&)(!3G).#0!3/4!*E&)0!%$'(4!)(*#&/*(!+&)!1&)&22&W!OE$%(!0E(!)(*#&/*(!$*! ,&)(!#()*$*0(/0!$/!0E(!23*(!&+!5./$*$3U!! C*!3!)&G.*0/(**!2E(2QW!O(!3%*&!)('()*(4!0E(!&)4()!&+!0E(!R)&O0E!)30(*!$/!0E(!fCbW!3/4!+&./4! *$,$%3)!)(*.%0*U!C*!(P#(20(4W!$/!3%%!0E(!"fCb*W!R)&O0E!*E&2Q*!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!R(/()30(! /&/*$R/$+$23/0!)(*#&/*(*!&/!R)&O0E!$/!0E(!-V!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*U98 ! <$R.)(!U!b(*#&/*(!&+!D&,(*0$2!c)&O0E!0&!3/!-P0()/3%!c)&O0E!"E&2Q! "&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! 5E(!'3)$3/2(!4(2&,#&*$0$&/*!)(#&)0(4!$/!53G%(!@!*E&O!E&O!,.2E!&+!0E(!+&)(23*0!())&)!'3)$3/2(! &+!3!2&./0);`*!cD>!R)&O0E!23/!G(!(P#%3$/(4!G;!0E(!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*!0&!cD>!R)&O0E!$/!-V! #3)0/()!2&./0)$(*U!5E(!*E3)(!(P#%3$/(4!G; S TEU tg MOR 3/4! S TEU tg TUN $/2)(3*(*!30!%&/R()! E&)$F&/*U!C0!3!98KX.3)0()!+&)(23*0!E&)$F&/W!*E&2Q*!0&! S TEU tg MOR (P#%3$/!99!#()2(/0!&+! 1&)&22&`*!cD>!R)&O0E!OE()(3*!*E&2Q*!0& S TEU tg TUN !(P#%3$/!@A!#()2(/0!&+!5./$*$3`*!cD>! R)&O0EU!! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 98 !<.)0E(),&)(W!+&)(23*0!())&)!'3)$3/2(!4(2&,#&*$0$&/*!*E&O!0E30!0E(!*E&2Q*!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!4&!/&0!(P#%3$/! 0E(!*E&2Q*!$/!-V!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*U!! ‐1 ‐0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 10Q (a) Morocco 0.55 ‐1 ‐0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 10Q (b) Tunisia 0.59
  14. 14. ! 9@! 53G%(!@U!<&)(23*0!-))&)!f3)$3/2(!D(2&,#&*$0$&/*!! -P#%3$/(4!G;! S TEU tg  !S$/!rT! Quarter  Morocco  Tunisia  1  0.49  3.78  2  6.01  17.20  3  8.12  28.94  4  9.91  34.55  5  10.51  36.71  6  10.71  37.28  7  10.74  37.31  8  10.74  37.36  9  10.74  37.58  10  10.75  37.90  ! !!!!"&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! C. Alternative Identification of Shocks =(!3/3%;F(!0E(!)&G.*0/(**!&+!0E(!(3)%$()!)(*.%0*!G;!2&/*$4()$/R!3!%&/RK)./!$4(/0$+$230$&/!*2E(,(! +&)!0E(!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*!$/!-V!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*U!"#(2$+$23%%;W!)30E()!0E3/!$4(/0$+;$/R!0E(! *0).20.)3%!*E&2Q!$/!-V!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*!G;!$,#&*$/R!3!F()&!)(*#&/*(!&/!$,#320W!O(!$4(/0$+;!0E$*! *E&2Q!G;!3**.,$/R!0E30!R)&O0E!$/!1&)&22&!&)!5./$*$3!E3*!/&!%&/RK)./!$,#320!&/!cD>!$/!#3)0/()! 2&./0)$(*U!5E$*!3**.,#0$&/!23/!G(!,&0$'30(4!G;!0E(!*$F(!&+!1&)&22&!&)!5./$*$3`*!(2&/&,;! 2&,#3)(4!0&!0E30!&+!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*U!<&%%&O$/R!L%3/2E3)4!3/4!l.3E!S9eAeTW!0E(!'3)$3G%(*! $/2%.4(4!$/!0E(!G3*(%$/(!fCb!3)(!&)4()(4!3*!G(+&)([!! W S TW kUEU j NA t t tZ g j g    ! 5E(!%&/RK)./!(++(20*!&+!0E(!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*!3)(!R$'(/!G;[!! tZ    U! 5E(!$4(/0$+$230$&/!3**.,#0$&/!+&)!0E(!%&/RK)./!)(*0)$20$&/!$*!0E(/[!! S9W[T s S9W9T 8t   ! <$R.)(!g!*E&O*!0E30!0E(!:b<*!0&!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*!$/!-V!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*!$4(/0$+$(4!.*$/R!0E$*! %&/RK)./!)(*0)$20$&/!*2E(,(!)(*(,G%(!0E(!*E&2Q*!$4(/0$+$(4!$/!0E(!*E&)0K)./!$4(/0$+$230$&/!*2E(,(U! =(!3%*&!344(4!:b<*!0&!3!&/(!*03/43)4!4('$30$&/!*E&2Q!&+!0E(!)(4.2(4K+&),!)(*$4.3%W!*&!O$0E&.0! ,3Q$/R!3/;!$4(/0$+;$/R!)(*0)$20$&/!&/!0E(!2&))(%30$&/!,30)$P!&+!0E(!)(*$4.3%* tu U!5E(!+$R.)(! *.RR(*0*!0E30!G&0E!0E(!*E&)0K)./!3/4!%&/RK)./!)(*0)$20$&/*!4&!/&0!$,#&*(!G$R!0)3/*+&),30$&/*U!! ! !
  15. 15. ! 9^! <$R.)(!gU!"E&)0Kb./!'()*.*!Y&/RKb./!b(*0)$20$&/*! "&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! IV. DE C O MPOSIN G T H E SPIL L O V ERS BY TRANSMISSION CH ANNE LS 5&!R(0!3!*(/*(!&+!0E(!)(%30$'(!$,#&)03/2(!&+!4$++()(/0!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%*!O(!+&%%&O!0E(! 3##)&32E!#)&#&*(4!$/!L3;&.,$!3/4!"O$*0&/!S788eTU!5E(!"fCb*!3)(!3.R,(/0(4!&/(!30!3!0$,(! O$0E!4303!&/!0)34(W!0&.)$*,!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!3*!(P&R(/&.*!'3)$3G%(*U!5E(!#&0(/0$3%!2&/0)$G.0$&/! kc ! &+!3!#3)0$2.%3)!2E3//(%!k!$*!0E(/!23%2.%30(4!3*[!! Uk kc r r  ! 5E(!2&/0)$G.0$&/! kc !$*!0E(!4$++()(/2(!G(0O((/!0E(!)(*#&/*(*!&+!R)&O0E!$/!1&)&22&!&)!5./$*$3!0&! R)&O0E!$/!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*!SrT!,$/.*!0E(!)(*#&/*(!&+!R)&O0E!OE(/!0E(!*#$%%&'()!$*!$/2%.4(4!3*!3/! (P&R(/&.*!'3)$3G%(!S kr TU!5E(!$4(3!$*!0E30!344$/R!0E(!(P&R(/&.*!'3)$3G%(!0&!0E(!fCb!%(3'(*!$/! kr ! 0E(!#3)0!&+!0E(!)(*#&/*(!0E30!$*!/&0!3**&2$30(4!O$0E!0E(!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%!k!S<$R.)(!hTU!! ! <$R.)(!hU!L3;&.,$!3/4!"O$*0&/!C##)&32E! ! "&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! ! 5E$*!3##)&32E!4&(*!/&0!(P2%.4(!0E(!(P$*0(/2(!&+!&0E()!)(%('3/0!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%*!3/4!4&(*! /&0!322&./0!+&)!0E(!2&%%$/(3)$0;!G(0O((/!0E(!4$++()(/0!2E3//(%*U!5E$*!3%*&!$,#%$(*!0E30!0E(!*&.)2(*! &+!*#$%%&'()*! kc ! 3)(!/&0!/(2(**3)$%;!)(X.$)(4!0&!*.,!.#!0&!0E(!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(!rU!C*!*.2EW!O(! ‐1 ‐0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 10Q (a) Morocco Short‐run Long‐run Reduced ‐1 ‐0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 10Q (b) Tunisia Short‐run Long‐run Reduced
  16. 16. ! 9! #)(+()!0&!0E$/Q!&+!0E$*!0(2E/$X.(!3*!3!R3.R(!#)&'$4$/R!3/!$/4$230$&/!&+!0E(!)(%30$'(!$,#&)03/2(!&+! 0E(!,3J&)!2E3//(%*!3/4!/&0!3*!3!#)(2$*(!G)(3QK4&O/!&+!0E(!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(U!99 !!! <$R.)(!AU!B.,.%30$'(!b(*#&/*(*!0&!c)&O0E!://&'30$&/!$/!>3)0/()!B&,#&*$0(! "&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! <$R.)(!A!*E&O*!0E(!2.,.%30$'(!$,#320!&+!0E(!4$++()(/0!2&/0)$G.0$&/*! kc !4(0(),$/(4!O$0E!0E$*! ,(0E&4!+&)!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3W!OE()(!0E(!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*!3)(!$4(/0$+$(4!3*!$/!"(20$&/!:::UCU! =(!3%*&!$/2%.4(!0E(!2.,.%30$'(!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(!+./20$&/!&+!0E(!"fCb*!(*0$,30(4!$/!"(20$&/! :::ULU!5E(!3/3%;*$*!*.RR(*0*!0E30W!$/!0E(!23*(!&+!5./$*$3W!(P#&)0*W!3/4!0&!3!,.2E!%(**()!(P0(/0! 0&.)$*,W!3)(!0E(!,3J&)!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%*U!b(,$003/2(*!*((,!0&!#%3;!3!'();!%$,$0(4!)&%(!30! 0E(*(!+)(X.(/2$(*U!<&)!1&)&22&W!0E(!)(*.%0*!*E&O!0E30!G(*$4(*!(P#&)0*W!OE$2E!*0$%%!#%3;!3/! $,#&)03/0!)&%(W!)(,$003/2(*!3/4!0&.)$*,!3)(!3%*&!,3J&)!0)3/*,$**$&/*!2E3//(%*!+&)!*#$%%&'()*U! B)&**K2&))(%30$&/*!G(0O((/!0E(!0E)((!+%&O*!3)(!*$R/$+$23/0!$/!0E(!23*(!&+!1&)&22&U! 5E(*(!)(*.%0*!3)(!$/!%$/(!O$0E!0E(!320.3%!('&%.0$&/*!$/!(P#&)0*W!0&.)$*,!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!&G*()'(4! 4.)$/R!0E(!)(2(/0!*%&O4&O/!$/!-.)&#(!S<$R.)(!eTU!:/!1&)&22&!3%%!0E(!0E)((!'3)$3G%(*!*0)&/R%;! )(*#&/4(4!0&!0E(!*E3)#!4)&#!$/!-V!cD>U97 !:/!5./$*$3W!&/!0E(!&0E()!E3/4W!(P#&)0*!O()(!0E(!,&*0! 3++(20(4U!5&.)$*,!)(2($#0*!$/!5./$*$3!O()(!%(**!3++(20(4W!OE$%(!)(,$003/2(*!*E&O(4!3!)(,3)Q3G%;! *0)&/R!)(*$%$(/2(U!! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 99 !<&)!,&)(!4(03$%*!&/!0E$*!3##)&32EW!*((!L3;&.,$!3/4!"O$*0&/!S788eTU!! 97 !5&03%!(P#&)0!#()+&),3/2(!$/!1&)&22&!$*!3%*&!$/+%.(/2(4!G;!*E3)#!+%.20.30$&/*!$/!$/0()/30$&/3%!#)$2(*!3/4!'&%.,(*! &+!#E&*#E30(!(P#&)0*U!5E(!*E3)(!&+!#E&*#E30(!$/!0&03%!(P#&)0*!O3*!A!#()2(/0!$/!788hW!9^!#()2(/0!$/!788AW!3/4! h!#()2(/0!$/!788eU!l.3/0$0$(*!4(2)(3*(4!9g!#()2(/0!$/!788A!3/4!8!#()2(/0!$/!788eW!OE()(3*!#)$2(*!,&)(!0E3/!0)$#%(4! $/!788A!3/4!+(%%!^9!#()2(/0!$/!788eU!! 0.18 0.40 0.68 1.02 1.37 1.69 0.10 0.37 0.75 1.21 0.00 1.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 (a) Morocco Remittances Tourism Exports (IR) RHS 4.16 (1.52) 0.75 1.47 1.97 2.28 2.44 2.46 2.39 0.28 0.37 0.41 0.41 0.38 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 (b) Tunisia Remittances Tourism Exports (IR) 2.88 (2.31)
  17. 17. ! 9g! <$R.)(!eU!b(320$&/*!0&!0E(!b(2(/0!"%&O4&O/!$/!-.)&#(! S@!,&/0E!,&'$/R!3'()3R(!;K&K;!R)&O0E!)30(*!&+!'3)$3G%(*!$/!%&23%!2.))(/2;W!$/!#()2(/0T! "&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! ! V. SE C T ORA L ANA L YSIS :/!0E$*!*(20$&/!O(!0(*0!0E(!)&G.*0/(**!&+!0E(!#)('$&.*!)(*.%0*!G;!(P3,$/$/R!0E(!)(*#&/*(!&+!R)&O0E! $/!4$++()(/0!*(20&)*!0&!R)&O0E!*E&2Q*!$/!-V!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*U!5&!0E$*!3$,W!O(!)(K)./!0E(!"fCb! 3/4!)(#%32(!0E(!/&/3R)$2.%0.)3%!cD>!R)&O0E!)30(*!+&)!5./$*$3!3/4!1&)&22&!O$0E!0E(!cD>!R)&O0E! )30(*! Wj SECTOR tg !$/!#3)0$2.%3)!*(20&)*U!C*!$/!"(20$&/!:::!LW!0E(!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(!,(3*.)(*!0E(! )(320$&/!&+!0E(*(!*(20&)*`!'3%.(!344(4!R)&O0E!)30(!0&!0E(!2&./0);K*#(2$+$2!-V!cD>!2&,#&*$0(U! <&)!2&./0);!JW!0E(!'3)$3G%(*!$/2%.4(4!$/!0E(!fCb!3)(!0E(/[!! ! W W S T kUj SECTOR EU t t tZ g g j    ! ! :/!%$/(!O$0E!0E(!)(*.%0*!#)(*(/0(4!$/!"(20$&/!:fW!<$R.)(!98!*E&O*!0E30!$/!1&)&22&!*()'$2(K)(%30(4! *(20&)*W!OE$2E!3)(!,&)(!*$R/$+$23/0%;!$/+%.(/2(4!G;!0&.)$*,!3/4!0)3/*+()*W!3##(3)!0&!G(!,&)(! *(/*$0$'(!0&!0E(!-.)&#(3/!2;2%(U!"(20&)*!*.2E!3*!,3/.+320.)$/RW!2&/*0).20$&/W!,$/$/R!3/4!(/()R;! 4&!/&0!*((,!0&!G(!*$R/$+$23/0%;!$/+%.(/2(4U!L;!2&/0)3*0W!$/!5./$*$3!(P#&)0K&)$(/0(4!*(20&)*W!*.2E! 3*!,3/.+320.)$/R!3/4!(/()R;W!3)(!0E(!,&*0!)(*#&/*$'(U!CR)$2.%0.)(W!,$/$/R!3/4!&0E()!*()'$2(*! *E&O!O(3Q!)(320$&/*!0&!0E(!'3)$30$&/*!$/!-V!cD>U! ! <$R.)(!98U!B.,.%30$'(!b(*#&/*(!&+!"(20&)!c)&O0E!0&!3/!-P0()/3%!c)&O0E!"E&2Q! "&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! ‐50 ‐30 ‐10 10 30 50 Jun‐08 Oct‐08 Feb‐09 Jun‐09 Oct‐09 Feb‐10 Exports Tourism  receipts Remittances (a) Morocco ‐50 ‐30 ‐10 10 30 50 Jun‐08 Oct‐08 Feb‐09 Jun‐09 Oct‐09 Feb‐10 Exports Tourism  receipts Remittances (b) Tunisia 0 1 2 3 4 5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 (a) Morocco   Commerce Other   Services Transports &Telecom Non‐responsive  sectors: ‐ Manufacturing ‐ Agriculture ‐ Mining ‐ Construction ‐ Energy 0 4 8 12 16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 (b) Tunisia  Manufacturing Energy Transports &Telecom Construction Non‐responsive  sectors: ‐ Agriculture ‐ Mining ‐ Other services
  18. 18. ! 9h! VI. PO LIC Y IMPLIC A TIONS 5E(!(2&/&,(0)$2!3/3%;*$*!4(,&/*0)30(*!0E30W!+&)!G&0E!5./$*$3!3/4!1&)&22&`*!(2&/&,$(*W!0E(! -.)&#(3/!V/$&/!#%3;*!3!Q(;!)&%(U!N.)!3/3%;*$*!2&/+$),*!0E(!)&G.*0/(**!&+!0E$*!2&//(20$&/!3/4! (P3,$/(*!)(%30$'(!$,#&)03/2(!&+!$0*!4$++()(/0!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%*U!=E$%(!0E(*(!2%&*(!0$(*!O$0E! 0E(!-.)&#(3/!V/$&/!E3'(!G((/!3!2(/0)3%!+320&)!2&/0)$G.0$/R!0&!0E(!#)&2(**!&+!&#(/$/R!.#!0E(!0O&! (2&/&,$(*!3/4!$,#)&'$/R!0E($)!2&,#(0$0$'(/(**W!0E(;!,$RE0!3%*&!)(#)(*(/0!3!2E3%%(/R(!+&)!0E(! +.0.)(U!! b(3%!&.0#.0!4)&##(4!G;!,&)(!0E3/!^!#()2(/0!$/!0E(!-.)&!C)(3!$/!788eU!1&)(&'()W!2.))(/0! +&)(23*0*!3)(!0E30!0E(!)(G&./4!$/!0E(!-V!3)(3!O$%%!G(!,&4(*0!3/4!*%&OU!c)&O0E!$/!G&0E!4&,(*0$2! 4(,3/4!3/4!)(3%!cD>!O$%%!*03;!G(%&O!0E($)!#)(K2)$*$*!%('(%*!$/!0E(!;(3)*!0&!2&,(!S<$R.)(!99TU! b(2(/0!2&/2()/*!3G&.0!*&'()($R/!4(G0!3/4!0E(!*.*03$/3G$%$0;!&+!#.G%$2!+$/3/2(*!$/!"&.0E()/! -.)&#(3/!2&./0)$(*!344!+.)0E()!4&O/*$4(!)$*Q*!0&!0E$*!&.0%&&QU! <$R.)(!99U!-.)&!C)(3jb(3%!cD>!3/4!b(3%!:,#&)0*!c)&O0E! S:/!#()2(/0T! ! ! "&.)2([!:1<W!=&)%4!-2&/&,$2!N.0%&&Q!SC#)$%!7898T!3/4!=&)%4!-2&/&,$2!N.0%&&Q!V#430(!SH.%;!7898TU! Z&0!&/%;!O$%%!)(3%!cD>!R)&O0E!$/!-.)&#(!G(!%&O()W!G.0!0E(!(/R$/(*!&+!R)&O0E!$/!-.)&#(!3)(! (P#(20(4!0&!2E3/R(W!O$0E!%(**!2&/0)$G.0$&/!2&,$/R!+)&,!0E(!4&,(*0$2!4(,3/4U!C*!3!)(*.%0W! R)&O0E!$/!-.)&#(3/!$,#&)0*jOE$2E!)(#)(*(/0*!0E(!,3$/!*&.)2(!&+!(P0()/3%!4(,3/4!+&)!1&)&22&! 3/4!5./$*$3j$*!#)&J(20(4!0&!G(!%(**!0E3/!E3%+!2&,#3)(4!0&!0E(!#)(K2)$*$*!#()$&4!$/!7898!3/4!7899! S<$R.)(!99TU!! :0!$*!/&0(O&)0E;!0E30!+&%%&O$/R!0E(!3**&2$30$&/!3R)((,(/0*!0E(!,3)Q(0!*E3)(*!&+!1&)&22&!3/4! 5./$*$3!$/!-V!,()2E3/4$*(!$,#&)0*!E3'(!/&0!$/2)(3*(4!*$/2(!9eeeU!53G%(!^!*E&O*!0E30!0E(*(! ,3)Q(0!*E3)(*!E3'(!)(,3$/(4!+3$)%;!*03G%(!&)!*%$RE0%;!4(2)(3*(4!&'()!0E(!#3*0!4(234(U!"('()3%! +320&)*!23/!(P#%3$/!0E$*!('&%.0$&/W!*.2E!3*!0E(!$/2)(3*(4!%$G()3%$F30$&/!&+!O&)%4!0)34(!./4()!0E(! =5N!3R)((,(/0*!3/4!0E(!+$()2(!2&,#(0$0$&/!+)&,!+3*0KR)&O$/R!(P#&)0()*!*.2E!3*!BE$/3!3/4! -3*0()/!-.)&#(U!CR3$/*0!0E$*!G32Q4)&#W!,3$/03$/$/R!,3)Q(0!*E3)(!$*!,&)(!0E3/!E&/&)3G%(U!! ! ‐4.1 1.0 1.8 1.7 ‐12 ‐10 ‐8 ‐6 ‐4 ‐2 0 2 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Real GDP (growth rates, in percent)Average 2000‐07: 2.1 Forecast ‐12.2 2.2 2.4 4.4 ‐14 ‐12 ‐10 ‐8 ‐6 ‐4 ‐2 0 2 4 6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Real Imports of goods  (growth rates, in percent) Average 2000‐07: 5.8 Forecast
  19. 19. ! 9A! 53G%(!^[!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!"E3)(*!$/!-V!:,#&)0*!! S:/!#()2(/0T! EU (27 countries)  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  Morocco  0.8  0.6  0.7  0.7  0.7  0.6  0.8  0.5  0.6  0.5  Tunisia  0.7  0.6  0.6  0.7  0.7  0.7  0.6  0.6  0.6  0.6  "&.)2(![!-.)&*030U!D303!(P2%.4(*!$/0)3K-V!0)34(!+%&O*U! 1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!E3'(!O(30E()(4!0E(!)(2(/0!*%&O4&O/!$/!-.)&#(!O(%%W!4.(!0&!)(%30$'(%;! $/*.%30(4!+$/3/2$3%!*;*0(,*W!3/!(P2(#0$&/3%!3R)$2.%0.)3%!#)&4.20$&/!3/4!*0)&/R!4&,(*0$2!4(,3/4! $/!788eU!:/!+320W!R)&O0E!322&./0$/R!(P()2$*(*!*.RR(*0*!0E30!4&,(*0$2!4(,3/4!E3*!G(2&,(!3!,&)(! 4;/3,$2!*&.)2(!&+!R)&O0E!$/!G&0E!2&./0)$(*!+)&,!788A!&/O3)4*U!p&O('()W!$/2)(3*$/R! 2&,#(0$0$'(/(**!3/4!3!+.)0E()!4$'()*$+$230$&/!&+!0)34(!+%&O*!)(#)(*(/0!Q(;!2E3%%(/R(*!0&!*.*03$/! R)&O0E!$/!0E(!+.0.)(U!! <$R.)(!97!*E&O*!0E(!*E3)(*!&+!0E(!-V!3/4!13RE)(G!$/!(P#&)0*W!$,#&)0*!3/4!0E(!4(*0$/30$&/K *#(2$+$2!2&'()!)30$&!S(P#&)0*!0&!&'()!$,#&)0*!+)&,!3!)(R$&/TU!5E(!+$R.)(!*E&O*!0E30!0)34(!O$0E! &0E()!13RE)(G!2&./0)$(*!$*!,3)R$/3%!+&)!G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3W!3/4!)(#)(*(/0*!3/! ./(P#%&$0(4!#&0(/0$3%W!(*#(2$3%%;!$/!0E(!2&/0(P0!&+!0E(!,&)(!*.G4.(4!R)&O0E!#)&J(20$&/*!+&)!0E(! -.)&#(3/!,3)Q(0U! <$R.)(!97U!-V!3/4!V1C!"E3)(*!$/!:,#&)0*W!-P#&)0*!3/4!B&'()!b30$&W!788A! S:/!#()2(/0T! ! ! V1C!u!V/$&/!4.!13RE)(G!C)3G(!SC%R()$3W!Y$G;3W!13.)$03/$3W!1&)&22&W!5./$*$3TU! "&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! VII. CONC LUSI ON =(!E3'(!*E&O/!0E30!+&)!G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!/&/3R)$2.%0.)3%!cD>!R)&O0E!)30(*!3)(! *$R/$+$23/0%;!$/+%.(/2(4!G;!0E(!'3)$30$&/*!$/!cD>!&+!0E($)!,3$/!-.)&#(3/!#3)0/()*U!p&O('()W!0E(! 0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%*!3##(3)!0&!G(!4$++()(/0!G(0O((/!0E(!0O&!2&./0)$(*U!:/!0E(!23*(!&+!5./$*$3W! R)&O0E!*E&2Q*!3)(!,3$/%;!0)3/*,$00(4!0E)&.RE!(P#&)0*!3/4W!0&!3!,.2E!%(**()!(P0(/0W!0&.)$*,U! -P#&)0*W!0&.)$*,!)(2($#0*!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!#%3;!(X.3%%;!$,#&)03/0!)&%(*!$/!1&)&22&U!5E(*(!)(*.%0*! 3)(!2&/+$),(4!G;!0E(!('&%.0$&/!&+!(P#&)0W!0&.)$*,W!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!$/!0E(!O3Q(!&+!0E(!)(2(/0! 0 20 40 60 80 100 Exports Imports  Cover  (a) Morocco EU UMA 0 20 40 60 80 100 Exports Imports  Cover  (b) Tunisia EU  UMA
  20. 20. ! 9e! *%&O4&O/!$/!-.)&#(U!C!*$,$%3)!(P()2$*(!30!0E(!*(20&)3%!%('(%!$/4$230(*!0E30!0E(!*(20&)*!)(%30(4!0&! *()'$2(*!3)(!0E(!,&*0!)(*#&/*$'(!0&!-V`*!cD>!$/!1&)&22&W!OE$%(!$/!5./$*$3!0E(!,&*0!)(*#&/*$'(! *(20&)*!3)(!,&)(!(P#&)0K&)$(/0(4U!! =E$%(!&.)!+$/4$/R*!*E&O!3!)(,3)Q3G%(!2&E()(/2(W!0E()(!3)(!3!/.,G()!&+!%$,$030$&/*!0&!Q((#!$/! ,$/4!OE(/!$/0()#)(0$/R!0E(*(!)(*.%0*U!<$)*0W!$0!*E&.%4!G(!(,#E3*$F(4!0E30!3!fCb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
  21. 21. ! 78! APPENDIX. Trade Weights from the Global Economic Environment (G E E) ! c%&G3%!-2&/&,$2!-/'$)&/,(/0!Sc--T!4303!3)(!R)&.#!2&,#&*$0(*W!G3*(4!&/!O($RE0(4!3'()3R(*!&+! *(%(20(4!=&)%4!-2&/&,$2!N.0%&&Q!S=-NT!'3)$3G%(*!+)&,!0E(!2&./0);!4303G3*(*U!5E(!0)34(! O($RE0*!3)(!4()$'(4!+)&,!0E(!:1<`*!D$)(20$&/!&+!5)34(!SDN5T!4303G3*(U!-'();!2&./0);!E3*!+&.)! *(0*!&+!0)34(!O($RE0*W!$U(UW!0E(!$,#&)0*!3/4!(P#&)0*!O($RE0*!+&)!3%%!2&./0)$(*!3*!#3)0/()*W!3/4!0E(! $,#&)0*!3/4!(P#&)0*!O($RE0*!+&)!&/%;!0E(!34'3/2(4!(2&/&,$(*U!5E(!O($RE0*!3)(!23%2.%30(4!+)&,! 0E(!c--!)(#&)0$/R!2&./0);`*!0)34(!O$0E!#3)0/()!OE$2E!2&,#)$*(!e!#()2(/0!&+!0E(!)(#&)0()`*!0&03%! (P#&)0*!&)!$,#&)0*U!5E(!344$0$&/3%!!#()2(/0!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*!&+!0E(!)(#&)0()`*!0)34(!4303!4&!/&0! O3))3/0!3/;!$,#)&'(,(/0!$/!0E(!&'()3%%!0)34(!O($RE0*U!5E(!c--!23%2.%30(*!3!)(#&)0$/R!2&./0);k*! *()$(*!/&0!+)&,!0E(!)(#&)0$/R!2&./0);k*!4303!G.0!+)&,!0E(!3RR)(R30(4!*.,!&+!0E(!O($RE0(4! #()2(/03R(!2E3/R(*!&+!$0*!#3)0/()*k!4303!+&)!3!R$'(/!=-N!*()$(*U! ! 5E(!3G&'(!03G%(*!*E&O!0E(!c--!O($RE0*!.*(4!+&)!23%2.%30$/R!0E(!2&./0);K*#(2$+$2!2&,#&*$0(!-V! R)&O0E!)30(* S TEU tg U!C*!O(!O3/0!0&!300)$G.0(!O($RE0*!0&!0E(!cD>!R)&O0E!&+!0E(!-V!2&./0)$(*W!0E(! -V!2&./0)$(*`!O($RE0*!E3'(!G((/!/&),3%$F(4!*.2E!0E30!0E(!*.,!$*!988U!5E(!2&./0);K*#(2$+$2! 2&,#&*$0(!cD>!R)&O0E!)30(! S TEU tg !23/!G(!(P#)(**(4!3*!+&%%&O*W!G3*(4!&/!0E(!O($RE0* i t !0E(!-V! 2&./0)$(*!03Q(!$/!1&)&22&`*!3/4!5./$*$3`*!(P#&)0*!&+!R&&4*W!)(*#(20$'(%;W!3/4!&/!0E(*(!2&./0)$(*`! R)&O0E!)30(*!R$ [!  9 9 S T U n i i tEU i t n i i g g        ! ! ! ! ! ! Morocco France 36.36 Spain 33.42 United Kingdom 8.22 Italy 7.87 Belgium 5.33 Germany 5.20 Netherlands  3.60 Total 100 Tunisia France 42.2 Italy 29.1 Germany 10.9 Spain 7.6 Belgium 3.7 United Kingdom 3.5 Netherlands  2.9 Total 100
  22. 22. ! 79! References ! C)(FQ$W!bUW!bU!BE()$+W!3/4!HU!>$&0)&O*Q$W!788eW!n5&.)$*,!"#(2$3%$F30$&/!3/4!-2&/&,$2! D('(%&#,(/0[!-'$4(/2(!+)&,!0E(!VZ-"BN!=&)%4!p()$03R(!Y$*0,” :1<!=&)Q$/R!>3#()! 8e?9hg!S=3*E$/R0&/[!:/0()/30$&/3%!1&/(03);!<./4TU! ! L3P0()W!1UW!3/4!1U!_&.#3)$0*3*W!788W!nD(0(),$/3/0*!&+!L.*$/(**!B;2%(!B&,&'(,(/0[!3!b&G.*0! C/3%;*$*,”!Journal of Monetary EconomicsW!f&%U!7S9TW!H3/.3);W!##U99@ihU! ! L3;&.,$W!5U!3/4!CU!"O$*0&/W!788eW!n<&)($R/!-/03/R%(,(/0*]!-*0$,30$/R!0E(!"&.)2(!3/4!"$F(!&+! "#$%%&'()*!C2)&**!:/4.*0)$3%!B&./0)$(*,”!IMF Staff PapersW!f&%U!gS7TW!##U!@@iA@U! ! L%3/2E3)4W!NU!3/4!DU!l.3E!S9eAeTW!n5E(!D;/3,$2!-++(20*!&+!CRR)(R30(!D(,3/4!3/4!".##%;! D$*0.)G3/2(*,”!American Economic ReviewW!f&%U!heS^TW!##U!gih@U! ! B3/&'3W!<UW!3/4!pU!D(%%3*W!9ee@W!n5)34(!:/0()4(#(/4(/2(!3/4!0E(!:/0()/30$&/3%!L.*$/(**!B;2%(,”! Journal of International EconomicsW!f&%U!@^!S<(G).3);TW!##U!7@i^hU! ! c3#(/!1U!5UW!CU!3/4!&0E()*W!788eW!nD&!=&)Q()*`!b(,$003/2(*!>)&,&0(!-2&/&,$2!c)&O0E?” :1<! =&)Q$/R!>3#()!8e?9@!S=3*E$/R0&/[!:/0()/30$&/3%!1&/(03);!<./4TU! ! :,G*W!H(3/!S788^TW!n5)34(W!<$/3/2(W!"#(2$3%$F30$&/W!3/4!";/2E)&/$F30$&/,”!Review of Economics and StatisticsW!f&%U!Ag@W!##Uh7@i@^U! ! _&*(W!1UCUW!BU!N0)&QW!3/4!BUpU!=E$0(,3/W!788@W!n:/0()/30$&/3%!L.*$/(**!B;2%(*[!=&)%4W! b(R$&/W!3/4!B&./0);K*#(2$+$2!<320&)*W” American Economic ReviewW!f&%Ue@!S^TW!##U!979gi @eU! ! 5&.J3*KL()/30MW!H&(%W!L&$%(3.!Y&Q&W!3/4!D&,$/$X.(!"$,3)4W!788eW!n:/'(*0$R30$/R!c)&O0E! "#$%%&'()*!+)&,!-.)&#(,”!5./$*$3!"(%(20(4!:**.(*!>3#()W!:1<!B&./0);!b(#&)0!! Z&U!98?98eU!! ! ! !

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