Renewable Energies In Mena Region

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Renewable Energies in the MENA Region:
Potential for Sustainable Energy Provision and
Export to Europe. by Hans Müller-Steinhagen and Franz Trieb
Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center(DLR).

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Renewable Energies In Mena Region

  1. 1. MED-CSP TRANS-CSP AQUA-CSPRenewable Energies in the MENA Region:Potential for Sustainable Energy Provision andExport to EuropeHans Müller-Steinhagen and Franz TriebInstitute of Technical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR) Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  2. 2. Project PartnersGerman Aerospace Center (Germany)National Energy Research Center (Jordan)University of Aden, (Yemen)University of Sana’a, (Yemen)University of Bahrain, (Bahrain)Prof. Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna, formerly at CNR (Morocco) IFEEDIntern. Forschungszentrum für Erneuerbare Energien e.V. (Germany)Kernenergien – The Solar Power Company (Germany)Nokraschy Engineering GmbH (Germany)Deutsche Gesellschaft Club of Rome (Germany)House of Water and Environment (Palestine)Center for Solar Energy Studies (Libya)Centre de Developpement des Energies Renouvelables (Morocco)University of Bremen (Germany)New Energy Algeria (Algeria)New and Renewable Energy Authority (Egypt)Hamburg Institute of International Economics (Germany)Honorat SatoguinaMASDAR (Abu Dhabi) Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  3. 3. 50 countries analysed within the MED-CSP and TRANS-CSP Studies Scandinavia Western Europe Eastern Europe South-Eastern Europe Western Asia North Africa Arabian Peninsula Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  4. 4. Parameters considered in the analyses! Annual electricity demand! Annual load curve! Available fossile and renewable resources! Existing power plants in 2000 and their expected lifetime! Cost of fossil fuels (oriented at IEA Scenario)! Maximum production growth rates of RE industries! Existing grid infrastructure! 100% power availability! Peaking power demand and 25 % reserve capacity! Sustainability criteria! Opportunities of financing! Policies and energy economic boundary conditions Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  5. 5. Gross electricity demand in the analysed MENA countries 4500 Turkey Historical Data Scenario Closing the Gap / High Efficiency Spain 4000 Portugal Malta Second Slowdown: Italy 3500 Demand Stabilisation GreeceGross Electricity Consumption TWh/a Tunisia 3000 Morocco Libya Egypt 2500 Algeria First Slowdown: Yemen 2000 Efficiency Gains UAE & Liberalisation Syria Saudi Arabia 1500 Qatar Oman 1000 Lebanon Kuwait Jordan 500 Israel Iraq 0 Iran 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Cyprus Year Bahrain Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  6. 6. Gross electricity demand in the analysed European countries Switzerland Norway 4500 Historical Data Scenario TRANS-CSP Iceland Bosnia-Herzegowina 4000 Serbia & Montenegro Romania Macedonia 3500 BulgariaGross Electricity Consumption TWh/y Turkey Sweden 3000 Croatia Finland Greece 2500 Hungary Slowenia Slowac Republic 2000 Czech Republic Poland 1500 Italy Ireland United Kingdom 1000 Denmark Germany Netherlands 500 Luxembourg Belgium Austria 0 France 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Portugal Year Spain Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  7. 7. Electricity production of power plants already existing in 2000 and deficit to be covered by new plants until 2050, in the European countries analysed within TRANS-CSP 4500 4000Electricity Production in TWh/y 3500 3000 2500 Deficit 2000 Old Plants 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  8. 8. Renewable energy resources in Europe and MENA Biomass (1) In brackets: (max. yield in GWhel / km! /y) Geothermal (1) Wind (50) Hydropower (50) A solar power plant of the size of Lake Nasser equals the total Middle East oil production Solar (250) Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  9. 9. Area Required to Provide the Electricity Demand of the World, EU-25 and Germany WORLD EU-25 GER Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  10. 10. SEGS 350 MW, California Planta Solar 10 MW, Seville Solar Thermal Power Plants Novatec MAN/SPG Lorca Almeria Nevada Solar I, 64 MW Andasol 2 x 50 MW, Guadix Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  11. 11. Solar Electricity Cost of Concentrating Solar Power Plants 45 900 40 800 Solar Electricity Cost [ct/kWh] Installed Capacity [GW] 35 700 30 600 25 500 20 400 15 300 10 200 5 100 0 0 2000 2015 2020 2035 2005 2010 2025 2030 1980 2040 1985 1990 1995 2045 2050 Year SEGS Cost CSP Cost Spain CSP Cost Egypt Worldwide Installed CSP Capacity Source: EU-IP NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  12. 12. Economic renewable electricity potentials vs. demand in Europe and MENA > 630000 16000 14000 Solar Electricity in TWh/y Geothermal 12000 Hydro 10000 8000 ? Wind Biomass 6000 Wave/Tide Desalination 4000 MENA 2000 Europe 0 Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050 Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  13. 13. Options for solar electricity transfer over 3000 km distance Solar Power Hydrogen AC / HVAC HVDC Line Transfer by: Losses 75 % 45 % / 25 % 10 % Cost very high high low Adaptation to has to be directly has to be Consumers transformed to transformable transformed to (Transformer) AC first AC first Over Sea by tankers or not over 30 km standard Transport pipelines solution Visibility Impact very low high low Materials and moderate moderate low Emissions Preferred eventually fuel regional and long distance Application for transport local power power transfer Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  14. 14. Concept of a EU-MENA Renewable Energy LinkUsing HVDC Power Transmission Technology Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  15. 15. Analysed Examples for EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection 3 x 5 GW x 7000 h/y = 105 TWh/y Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  16. 16. Scenario for total EU-MENA HVDC interconnection 2020 – 2050 * Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Capacity GW 2x5 8x5 14 x 5 20 x 5 Transfer TWh/y 60 230 470 700 Capacity Factor 0.60 0.67 0.75 0.80 Land Area CSP 15 x 15 30 x 30 40 x 40 50 x 50 km x km HVDC 3100 x 0.1 3600 x 0.4 3600 x 0.7 3600 x 1.0 Investment CSP 42 134 245 350 Billion " HVDC 5 16 31 45 * All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  17. 17. Expected Water Deficits by Country 160 Bahrain Yemen 140Freshwater Deficit [billion m!/y] UAE Saudi Arabia 120 Qatar Kuwait 100 Oman Iran 80 Iraq 60 Syria Lebanon 40 Jordan Israel 20 Palestine Egypt 0 Libya 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Tunisia Algeria Year Morocco Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  18. 18. Concentrating Solar Thermal Power for Seawater Desalination (Options)Heat Only Power Only Combined Heat & PowerSolar Field Storage Solar Field Storage Solar Field Storage solar solar heat fuel heat fuelsolar gridheat Power Power Plant Plant fuel heat MED RO MED Water Power Water Power Water Power MED: Multi-Effect-Distillation; RO: Reverse Osmosis Membrane Desalination Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  19. 19. Projected cost of water (CoW) from reverse osmosis plantsusing conventionally generated power or solar electricity 1.2 1.0 Cost of Water ["/m!] 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 CoW Solar CoW Fossil CoW Mix Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  20. 20. Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants combinedwith Sea Water Desalination in Coastal Desert Areas Energy + Water + Income = Sustainable economic development in AC Grid arid regions HVDC Link (artist view created with Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Google Earth) Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  21. 21. Electricity and fresh water provision in MENA 4000 3500 Power Demand and 3000 Supply [TWh/y] 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 20 00 20 5 20 0 20 0 0 1 20 5 1 20 0 2 Year 20 5 2 30 35 20 40 20 45 20 50 20Old Plants MENA CSP Export CSP Desalination CSP MENANew Plants MENA Total Demand Energies in the MENA Region Renewable MENA Total Demand EU Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  22. 22. Conclusions! Within 15 years, a well balanced electricity mix may lead to less expensive electricity than business as usual. Domestic sources reduce the import of fuels.! Solar electricity from concentrating solar power stations in MENA can provide firm capacity for base load, intermediate and peaking power.! The most efficient and economic way to transfer electricity from MENA to Europe is via high voltage direct current transmission lines, adding about 1.5-2 cents/kWh to the local generating cost.! By 2050, 700 TWh/y solar electricity could be imported from 20 locations in MENA at a cost of 5 c/kWh, providing about 15 % of European electricity demand.! To establish and maintain such a trans-national HVDC electricity grid, strong political support will be required. Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
  23. 23. for more information look at www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

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