1. Potential Impact of the US Supreme Court's Affordable Care Act Decision on Medicaid Expansion
Newly Eligible for
Total Eligible Likelihood That Medicaid in States
Uninsured with Currently Newly Eligible State Will Opt Out Moderately or
States 2014 Medicaid Eligible for for Medicaid of ACA Medicaid Highly Likely to Opt
Challenging ACA Expansion Medicaid with Expansion Expansion out of Expansion
Alabama 397,000 76,000 321,000 Unclear
Alaska 46,000 5,000 41,000 Unclear
Arizona 354,000 265,000 89,000 Unclear
Colorado 291,000 66,000 225,000 Unclear
Florida 1,522,000 257,000 1,265,000 High 1,265,000
Georgia 843,000 159,000 684,000 High 0,684,000
Idaho 126,000 18,000 108,000 Unclear
Indiana 438,000 64,000 374,000 Unclear
Iowa 130,000 23,000 107,000 Moderate 0,107,000
Kansas 171,000 30,000 141,000 Unclear
Louisiana 392,000 62,000 330,000 High 0,330,000
Maine 59,000 13,000 46,000 Moderate 0,046,000
Michigan 676,000 112,000 564,000 Unclear
Mississippi 293,000 62,000 231,000 High 0,231,000
Nebraska 99,000 21,000 78,000 High/Moderate 0,078,000
Nevada 204,000 41,000 163,000 Moderate 0,163,000
North Dakota 29,000 5,000 24,000 Unclear
Ohio 705,000 127,000 578,000 Unclear
Pennsylvania 613,000 92,000 521,000 Unclear
South Carolina 389,000 92,000 297,000 High 0,2970000
South Dakota 49,000 9,000 40,000 Unclear
Texas 2,036,000 289,000 1,747,000 High 1,747,000
Utah 145,000 40,000 105,000 Unclear
Washington 375,000 66,000 309,000 Very low
Wisconsin 235,000 53,000 182,000 Unclear
Wyoming 31,000 6,000 25,000 Unclear
TOTAL 10,648,000 2,053,000 8,595,000 3,012,000
Estimated Medicaid expansion assuming full participation 17,000,000
Estimated Medicaid expansion assuming all challenging states opt out 8,405,000
Estimated Medicaid expansion assuming states with high or moderate likelihood of
opting out do so 13,988,000
Sources: 1. Kenney, G., Zuckerman, S., Dubay, L., Huntress, M., Haley, J., & Anderson, N. 2012 “Opting in to the Medicaid Expansion under
the ACA: Who are the Uninsured Adults Who Could Gain Health Insurance Coverage?” Washington, D.C.: Urban Institute. Available at
http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/412630-opting-in-medicaid.pdf. 2. Advisory Board Company. 2012. “Where Each State Stands on
ACA’s Medicaid Expansion: A Roundup of What Each States’ Leadership Has Said about Their Medicaid Plans.” Updated August 28, 2012.
Available at http://www.advisory.com/Daily-Briefing/2012/07/05/Where-each-state-stands-of-the-Medicaid-expansion.