Weekly media update 10 01_2022

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Covid 3.0 may dent Q4 growth:
Economists
The resurgent Covid-19 pandemic could dent
March quarter growth by up to 30 basis points with
states imposing restrictions on movement and
assembly that could last a while. Economists
expect contact-intensive services such as travel,
tourism, hotels and restaurants, which were finally
beginning to recover, to bear the brunt of a third
wave. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects
India’s economy to grow 6% in the ongoing
quarter and 9. 5% for the full FY22. "There is a
downside risk to our growth forecast to the tune
of 20-30 bps (current forecast of 6. 1% Q4 FY22),"
HDFC Bank chief economist Abheek Barua said in
a note. One basis point is one-hundredth of a
percentage point. Barua attributed the downside
risks to restrictions imposed by states that could
extend beyond January and a slowdown in global
recovery that would weigh on exports. Barclays
chief India economist Rahul Bajoria said, "It poses
downside risks to our forecast of 10% for FY21-
22, but RBI is already at 9. 5%, which still seems
reasonable."
The Economic Times - 05.01.2022
https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-
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Economists downgrade GDP growth
estimates
The rapid spread of the Omicron variant has
prompted economists to downgrade GDP
growth projections and a clutch of agencies now
estimate growth for the current fiscal year to be
below the double-digit expansion forecast
earlier. "Curbs in various forms have already
started in several states, which are impacting
economic activities," said Sunil Sinha, principal
economist and director public finance at India
Ratings and Research. "Ind-Ra's estimate
shows that GDP growth in Q4FY22 will now
come in at 5.7% y-o-y, which is 40 basis points
lower than the agency's earlier estimate of
9.4%." Brickworks Ratings also downgraded its
GDP growth forecast for 2021-22. "For the full
fiscal, we revise our GDP estimates for the
current fiscal to 8.5-9% as against earlier
estimate of 10%," said M Govinda Rao, chief
economic adviser at Brickwork Ratings.
The Times of India - 07.01.2022
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/i
ndia-business/economists-downgrade-gdp-
growth-estimates/articleshow/88748314.cms
Economy to grow 9.2%, recoup Covid
year losses
SUPPORTED BY an uptick in the farm, mining and
manufacturing sector outputs, India’s gross
domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow 9.2
per cent in the current financial year or 2021-22,
according to the first advance estimates released
by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday.
In 2020-21, a national lockdown forced by the
Covid-19 onslaught had left the economy battered
with GDP contracting 7.3 per cent. The NSO
estimate for the current financial year is a tad
lower than the RBI’s GDP projection in its
December 2021 policy review. The central bank
had projected the economy to grow 9.5 per cent,
with the rider that this assumed no resurgence of
Covid-19 infections in India. The RBI has projected
the third quarter (Oct-Dec 2021) and fourth
India to surpass Japan as Asia’s 2nd
largest economy by 2030
India is likely to overtake Japan as Asia’s
second-largest economy by 2030 when its GDP
is also projected to surpass that of Germany and
the U.K. to rank as the world’s No.3, IHS Markit
said in a report on Friday. Currently, India is the
sixth-largest economy, behind the U.S., China,
Japan, Germany and the U.K. “India’s nominal
GDP... is forecast to rise from $2.7 trillion in
2021 to $8.4 trillion by 2030,” IHS Markit said.
“This rapid pace of economic expansion would
result in the size of Indian GDP exceeding
Japanese GDP by 2030, making India the
second-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific
region.” By 2030, the Indian economy would
also be larger in size than the largest Western
European economies of Germany, France and
WEEKLY MEDIA UPDATE
Issue 535
10 January, 2022
Monday

quarter (Jan-Mar 2022) to grow 6.6 per cent and
6 per cent, respectively. Real GDP had grown 8.4
per cent in July-September 2021, after a sharp
20.1 per cent jump in April-June 2021. The rising
cases of the Omicron variant of the corona virus
has prompted several economists to lower growth
projections for this year, with particularly the
fourth quarter numbers likely to come under
strain.
The Indian Express - 08.01.2022
https://indianexpress.com/article/business/econo
my/india-fy22-gdp-first-advance-estimate-gross-
domestic-product-nso-mospi-data-7711032/
the U.K. The long-term outlook for the Indian
economy is supported by a number of key
growth drivers. “An important positive factor for
India is its large and fast-growing middle class,
which is helping to drive consumer spending,”
IHS Markit said, forecasting that the country’s
consumption expenditure will double from $1.5
trillion in 2020 to $3 trillion by 2030.
The Hindu - 08.01.2022
https://www.thehindu.com/business/india-to-
surpass-japan-as-asias-2nd-largest-economy-
by-2030/article38195975.ece
Icra says Omicron may eat up 40 bps of
Q4 GDP growth
The third wave of the pandemic, which has seen a
massive spike in infections after the more
infectious Omicron variant of the coronavirus
appeared, is likely to shave 40 bps off the fourth
quarter GDP growth that may print in at 4.5-5 per
cent, warns Icra Ratings. Admitting that it is too
early to take a firm view as the third wave has just
about started, the agency’s chief economist Aditi
Nayar said given the early indications and the
speed with which new infections are being
reported, it can be surmised that there could be
more mobility restrictions that will impact
economic activities, especially in contact-intensive
sectors. Accordingly, Icra sees the third wave
shaving around 40 bps off the March quarter GDP
growth, which may print in at 4.5-5 per cent going
by the early assessment, Nayar told PTI. However,
she has retained the “full year GDP forecast at 9
per cent, with moderate downside risks”, saying
anyways Icra’s forecast was the lowest among the
consensus numbers which vary from 8.5 to 10 per
cent, with the RBI pegging it at 9.5 per cent.
The Financial Express - 06.01.2022
https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/icra-
says-omicron-may-eat-up-40-bps-of-q4-gdp-
growth/2399208/
Ratings agencies cut FY22 growth
estimate
Two domestic ratings firms on Thursday cut
their projections on India's fiscal 2022 economic
growth to 8. 5-9. 3% from 9. 4-10% estimated
earlier, citing a possible impact of the third
wave of Covid-19 led by a more infectious
Omicron variant. Brickwork Ratings revised its
estimate on India’s GDP to 8. 5-9% from 10%,
while India Ratings & Research cut its forecast
to 9. 3% from 9. 4%. “For the full fiscal, we
expect agricultural activities to be resilient as
usual, while the manufacturing and services
sectors will bear the brunt if the current
situation prolongs further, Brickwork Ratings
said. It said an apparent third wave, rising
prices of crude oil and mineral products,
steadily increasing costs of raw materials, as
well as disruptions in semiconductor, coal and
power supply are likely to slow down the growth
momentum. Growth estimates for the third and
fourth quarters need a downward revision, it
added. For the fourth quarter, India Ratings
estimates GDP growth to be 5. 7% year-on-
year. The new outlook is 0. 4 percentage point
lower than its earlier estimate of 6. 1%.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/e
conomy/indicators/fitch-cuts-india-gdp-
forecast-for-fy22-to-8-
4/articleshow/88158383.cms?from=mdr
Mfg activity remains robust in Dec on
new orders
Manufacturing activity in the country remained
robust in December on the back of new orders
despite moderating from the 10-month high
outcome in November, a survey showed on
Monday. At 55. 5 in December, the IHS Markit
India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
(PMI) pointed to a strong improvement in overall
operating conditions. This was despite the
headline figure slipping from November’s 10-
month high of 57. 6. The latest quarterly reading
Services PMI dropped to 3 month-low
in December
India’s services sector saw the growth rate fall
to a three-month low in December, though the
momentum of expansion continued. The IHS
Markit India Services Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI) for December issued on Wednesday
stood at 55.5, lower than the November figure
of 58.1. The easing of the growth rate comes
amid an increase in coronavirus cases across
the country spurred by the highly contagious
Omicron variant. IHS Markit, however, said that

was at 56. 3, its highest since the final quarter of
fiscal year 2020-21, the survey showed. The 50-
point mark separates expansion from contraction.
The survey is compiled by IHS Markit from
responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing
managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers.
Amid reports of strong demand conditions, fruitful
marketing and new client wins, manufacturers
observed a further increase in new orders during
December. The upturn was sharp, despite being
the slowest since September. Similarly, production
rose at a sharp pace that was nevertheless the
weakest in three months, the survey results
showed.
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the seasonally-adjusted India Services Business
Activity Index was still consistent with a marked
rate of economic expansion. The upturn was
often associated with improving market
conditions and accommodative demand.
“Indian services companies continued to report
growth of sales and business activity in
December. Rates of expansion moderated, but
were nevertheless marked by historical
standards," IHS Markit said. Underlying data
suggested that the latest increase in new orders
was centred on the domestic market, as new
business from abroad fell further. The
deterioration in global demand was linked to
covid curbs, particularly around travelling.
Mint - 06.01.2022
https://www.livemint.com/economy/indias-
services-pmi-for-december-falls-to-3-month-
low-amid-resurgent-covid-
11641363869712.html
Exports surge 37% to a record $37.3bn
in Dec
The country’s exports soared by an annual 37% to
$37. 3 billion in December, the highest ever
monthly number led by robust shipments from
sectors such as engineering, textiles, chemicals
and gems & jewellery, preliminary trade data
showed on Monday. The trade deficit widened to
$21. 9 billion. Imports rose 38% in December to
$59. 3 billion as oil imports surged by 65. 2% to
$15. 9 billion. Gold imports rose 4. 6% to $4. 7
billion during the month. Exports have consistently
been in the range of $30 billion or more in the nine
months of the current fiscal year, helped by an
improving global economy and demand for goods
from the country in markets overseas. “At $300
billion in the first nine months, we have actually
created a historic record on exports,” said Piyush
Goyal, Union minister for commerce and industry,
textiles, consumer affairs, food & public
distribution. Goyal also said that at $103 billion in
the October-December period, it has been the
highest quarterly export figures as well. “We are
confident we will cross $400 billion target,” Goyal
said. The minister said PM Narendra Modi’s efforts
to forge close ties with various countries at the
highest levels across the world had helped open
the doors for more strategic and comprehensive
economic partnerships with different countries.
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3rd wave casts shadow on govt's
selloff plan
The government's privatisation plan again faces
roadblocks with the latest curbs to prevent the
spread of the new Covid variant likely to slow
down the selloff process, making it difficult to
achieve the target of raising Rs 1.75 lakh crore
in the current fiscal year. The department of
investment and public asset management
(Dipam), which is mandated to conduct the
government's privatisation programme, has
successfully carried out the big ticket
privatisation of Air India and several other
transactions are in an advanced stage of being
concluded. But the third wave of the Covid
threatens to upset Dipam's plans for now with
all the restrictions being unveiled, which will
make physical meetings difficult. In fact, the
first two waves had had an impact on the asset
sales programme and had led to delays and
missed targets. While Dipam had switched to
virtual meetings to carry on the work on some
of the transactions, the pandemic induced curbs
did have an impact. The third wave, which is
currently underway, is also expected to derail
plans for any physical meetings with potential
investors and authorities having to depend on
the virtual mode to work on the transactions
that are pending.
MNS.com - 06.01.2022
https://www.msn.com/en-
in/money/topstories/3rd-wave-casts-shadow-
on-govts-selloff-plan/ar-AAStN1m

2022 is when oil supply panic replaces
fears about demand
If oil producers were hoping for a quiet 2022, they
may be disappointed. There are two very different
schools of thought emerging on what the oil
market is going to look like this year. The one
thing they agree on: It’s not going to be serene.
The bears see supply running ahead of demand,
rising inventories and the OPEC+ producer group
perhaps needing to consider another round of
output cuts. The bulls focus on low stockpiles,
dwindling spare production capacity amid a dearth
of investment, and the prospect of triple-digit
prices before 2022 is out. Unless demand growth
slows dramatically, the latter argument looks
more convincing. The analysis presented to the
producer group ahead of its meeting last week
showed global oil stockpiles building throughout
the coming year, wiping out virtually all of the
draws seen in 2021. The build isn’t based on a
gloomy outlook for oil demand. Far from it. In their
base case, they see global oil use surpassing its
pre-pandemic high to average almost101 million
barrels a day in 2022, exceeding 103 million
barrels a day by December.
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Diesel sales rise in December, but
Omicron seen dampening demand
Indian state refiners' daily diesel sales rose in
December from the previous month but a rapid
surge in infections due to the Omicron
coronavirus variant could hit fuel demand in
Asia's third largest economy. State retailers
sold about 208,150 tonnes of diesel a day in
December, up 8.75% from November and
1.48% higher than the same month last year,
preliminary sales data compiled by the industry
showed. However, it represented a 1.60%
decline versus December 2019, before the
Covid-19 pandemic had spread globally.
Movement of diesel-consuming trucks in India
picked up in December as more fruits and
vegetables were transported across the country
than usual that month, while factory output and
exports continued to grow, truckers association
Indian Foundation of Transport Research &
Training said in a statement. But it added that
the rapid spread of Omicron in India in the last
few days of December had "initiated (a) sense
of nervousness" in trade and commerce, which
was beginning to impact the road transport
business. Diesel accounts for about two-fifth of
refined fuel consumption in India and is directly
linked to industrial activity.
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/
news/oil-and-gas/diesel-sales-rise-in-
december-but-omicron-seen-dampening-
demand/88689260
Shrink to fit: The year big oil starts to
become small oil
Europe's Big Oil companies are planning to spend
their windfall from high energy prices on becoming
Small Oil. Surging oil and gas prices in 2021
delivered billions of dollars in profits to top oil
companies, in stark contrast to the previous year
when energy prices collapsed as the coronavirus
pandemic hit travel and economic activity.
Typically, companies would invest the lion's share
of that cash in long-term projects to boost oil and
gas production and reserves after the previous
year's deep cuts. But unlike any other time in their
history, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, TotalEnergies,
Equinor, and Italy's Eni are focusing on returning
as much cash as possible to shareholders to keep
them sweet as they begin a risky shift towards
low-carbon and renewable energy. "All of the large
oil companies are managing decline to a degree,"
by shifting to fields that provide larger investment
returns for shareholders and leaving mature
assets behind, said Ben Cook, portfolio manager
with BP Capital Fund Advisors.
OPEC oil output boost in December
again undershoots target
The increase in OPEC's oil output in December
has again undershot the rise planned under a
deal with allies, a Reuters survey found on
Thursday, highlighting capacity constraints that
are limiting supply as global demand recovers
from the pandemic. The Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped
27.80 million barrels per day (bpd) in
December, the survey found, up 70,000 bpd
from the previous month but short of the
253,000 bpd increase allowed under the supply
deal. OPEC and its allies, a group known as
OPEC+, are gradually relaxing 2020's output
cuts as demand recovers from 2020's collapse.
But many smaller producers can't raise supply
and others have been wary of pumping too
much in case of renewed COVID-19 setbacks.
The OPEC+ agreement allowed for a 400,000
bpd production increase in December from all
members, of which about 253,000 bpd is shared
by the 10 OPEC members participating in the
deal, OPEC figures seen by Reuters show.

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne
ws/oil-and-gas/shrink-to-fit-the-year-big-oil-
starts-to-become-small-oil/88806841
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/
news/oil-and-gas/opec-oil-output-boost-in-
december-again-undershoots-target/88746644
Sri Lanka to sign strategic oil terminal
deal with India: Energy Minister
Sri Lanka has agreed with India to jointly
redevelop a strategic oil terminal consisting of
nearly 100 large oil tanks, Energy Minister Udaya
Gammanpila said Tuesday. He said the Cabinet
approved the proposal and an agreement with
India should be signed within this month. The
project comes amid mounting concern over
growing Chinese influence in this Indian Ocean
island nation. The facility, with a capacity of 8
million barrels of oil, is located on Sri Lanka's
eastern coast near strategically important
Trincomalee port, which is considered as one of
the best natural harbours in the world. The cost of
the project was not available. According to the
agreement negotiated by Sri Lanka and Indian
officials for more than a year, 24 of the 99 tanks
will be provided to Sri Lanka's state-owned Ceylon
Petroleum Corp. Another 14 tanks which are
currently used by Lanka IOC, a subsidiary of
IndianOil, will be leased again to the same
company for 50 years. The remaining 61 tanks will
be managed by Trinco Petroleum Terminal Ltd,
which is 51% owned by Ceylon Petroleum and
49% by Lanka IOC.
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne
ws/oil-and-gas/sri-lanka-to-sign-strategic-oil-
terminal-deal-with-india-energy-
minister/88700197
Alka Mittal first woman to head oil
giant ONGC
Alka Mittal has become the first woman to head
India’s largest exploration and production
company, ONGC, and second woman in the
country to helm an oil company after Nishi
Vasudeva, who had made history in March 2014
after taking over the reins of oil refiner-fuel
retailer Hindustan Petroleum. The DoPT on
Monday evening appointed Mittal to the post, 72
hours after it fell vacant when Subhash Kumar,
who too held the charge since February 2021 in
addition to his regular job as director (finance),
retired onDecember31. Mittal, currently the
director (HR), has been appointed for six
months, or till a regular chairperson is
appointed, whichever is earlier. But yet, her
ascent to the corner office in ONGC signifies
increasing diversity in the ‘macho’ oil and gas
industry that remains one of the last bastions of
male dominance. A postgraduate in economics
and a doctorate in commerce, Alka Mittal had
broken the glass ceiling in ONGC by becoming
the first woman to join the company’s board on
November 27, 2018. She played a leading role
in ensuring a safe working environment for
27,000-strong employees and thousands of
contract workers, notably women employees
and engineers deployed on offshore platforms
and remote locations, to ensure uninterrupted
operations through the pandemic.
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OPEC names Kuwait oil executive as secretary general
Top oil producing countries on Monday picked Kuwaiti oil executive Haitham al-Ghais as the next
secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Al-Ghais, who was
Kuwait's OPEC governor from 2017 to June 2021, serves as a deputy managing director of the Kuwait
Petroleum Corporation (KPC). His decades of experience in the industry include stints in Beijing and
London for the state oil corporation. OPEC said in a statement that al-Ghais was appointed by
acclamation and will take up his three-year post on August 1. He will replace Nigeria's Mohammed
Barkindo, who took over the helm of the organisation in 2016 and led it for two terms. It was during
Barkindo's tenure that the grouping drastically slashed oil output in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic
hit global markets. Last year, OPEC and 10 allies including Russia began to gradually open the tabs
again, and prices have bounced back. The Vienna-based organisation comprises 13 members led by
Saudi Arabia which fix output to control prices along with the 10 other countries in a grouping dubbed
OPEC+.
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/opec-names-kuwait-oil-executive-
as-secretary-general/88708466

Weekly media update 10 01_2022

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Weekly media update 10 01_2022