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20+% gain in 2015
By hedge volitility &
commodity
by Mark Hsiao @ 2015 sep
Under 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 macro environment
Mark
Outperform top hedge fund
Outperform leading volatility mutual fund @ 2015-
08-31
YTD 26%
1 year 10%
during the same time frame as of 2015-08-31
Outperform leading volatility hedge fund
1 month 20%
3 month 27%
YTD 26%
12 month 10%
closing up all time leader
1 month 20%
3 month 27%
YTD 26%
12 month 10%
Methodology
1. Start with Bloomberg, CNBC, yahoo, Google finance, practice on stimulator app, wire retirement fund into brokerage
2. Identify limitations: 250ms delay, night shift, high fee on my limited capital)
3. Stay away from what I can't as identified
4. Stick to what I know 1x then find 2x and -2x as hedge, insurance when market turn
5. Exist strategy and worst case bottom line cut off
6. Don't fight the market, just give up, ego-less true survivor
7. rather than stay long,I stay liquid in order to participate next major economic data release
8. Pick easy decisive event, stay away from ambiguous data release.
9. Goal is to grow %capital with respect to most precious asset: TIME, rather than stay faithful to presume judgement
10. Act as a capital allocation manager based on my pass project manager role (resource allocation stage, priority, rotation)
11. Continuous learning, accept today's believe could flip 180 tomorrow
12. Apply Calculus derivative approach on market trend; non liner movement require multiple iterations
Vehicles of choice for Gold, TNX, DXY movement
NUGT +8.3% ytd
DUST +9.0% ytd
Vehicles for S&P broader market movement
XIV -0.8% ytd
UVXY +26.7% ytd
Vehicles for oil movement
UWTI +0.04% ytd
DWTI -2.0% ytd
Market timing(calendar) & exit strategy(excel) 9 screen PC assemble by me
Get your top 2015
trader now,
To hedge market
risks in next 3 slide
2015Q4 market risk from Fed rate hike impact?
2016H2 market risk from high yield, debt sell off?
2016Q4 sector rotation after US
presidential election?
Thanks & wish you a great way to return
for further discussion facing upcoming uncertainty-
email: yuantaihsiao@gmail.com

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volatility & commodity hedge

  • 1. 20+% gain in 2015 By hedge volitility & commodity by Mark Hsiao @ 2015 sep
  • 2. Under 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 macro environment
  • 4. Outperform leading volatility mutual fund @ 2015- 08-31 YTD 26% 1 year 10%
  • 5. during the same time frame as of 2015-08-31 Outperform leading volatility hedge fund 1 month 20% 3 month 27% YTD 26% 12 month 10%
  • 6. closing up all time leader 1 month 20% 3 month 27% YTD 26% 12 month 10%
  • 7. Methodology 1. Start with Bloomberg, CNBC, yahoo, Google finance, practice on stimulator app, wire retirement fund into brokerage 2. Identify limitations: 250ms delay, night shift, high fee on my limited capital) 3. Stay away from what I can't as identified 4. Stick to what I know 1x then find 2x and -2x as hedge, insurance when market turn 5. Exist strategy and worst case bottom line cut off 6. Don't fight the market, just give up, ego-less true survivor 7. rather than stay long,I stay liquid in order to participate next major economic data release 8. Pick easy decisive event, stay away from ambiguous data release. 9. Goal is to grow %capital with respect to most precious asset: TIME, rather than stay faithful to presume judgement 10. Act as a capital allocation manager based on my pass project manager role (resource allocation stage, priority, rotation) 11. Continuous learning, accept today's believe could flip 180 tomorrow 12. Apply Calculus derivative approach on market trend; non liner movement require multiple iterations
  • 8. Vehicles of choice for Gold, TNX, DXY movement NUGT +8.3% ytd DUST +9.0% ytd
  • 9. Vehicles for S&P broader market movement XIV -0.8% ytd UVXY +26.7% ytd
  • 10. Vehicles for oil movement UWTI +0.04% ytd DWTI -2.0% ytd
  • 11. Market timing(calendar) & exit strategy(excel) 9 screen PC assemble by me
  • 12. Get your top 2015 trader now, To hedge market risks in next 3 slide
  • 13. 2015Q4 market risk from Fed rate hike impact?
  • 14. 2016H2 market risk from high yield, debt sell off?
  • 15. 2016Q4 sector rotation after US presidential election?
  • 16. Thanks & wish you a great way to return for further discussion facing upcoming uncertainty- email: yuantaihsiao@gmail.com