Presented in WISERD / ONS Census workshop on 20 December 2013

1. Dyddiad
Defnyddio data’r cyfrifiad i ddadansoddi
trosglwyddo’r Gymraeg
Using census data to analyse the
intergenerational transmission of the
Welsh language
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Gweithdy ar y cyfrifiad WISERD/SYG
WISERD/ONS Census workshop
Hywel Jones
10/12/2013

2. Y gwaith arweiniodd at y poster
The work which led to the poster
Welsh Poster Cymraeg:
• http://bit.ly/15Cr60pf
English Poster Saesneg:
• http://bit.ly/18BlCFi
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Cynhyrchwyd y poster i’w arddangos
yng nghynhadledd flynyddol y BSPS
yn Abertawe 2013.
The poster was produced for display
in the BSPS annual conference in
Swansea 2013.

3. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013

4. % yn gallu siarad Cymraeg, 1991-2011, yn ôl oed
% able to speak Welsh, 2001 and 2011, by age
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Age

5. Trosglwyddo’r Gymraeg
Transmission of the Welsh language
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
• 2001: S143, C0156, C0584, C0585, C0602,
C0790, C0801
• 2011: DC2112, DC2115, DC2601
Tablau Tables

6. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Trosglwyddo – yn ôl math o deulu

7. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Transmission – by family type

8. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013

9. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013

10. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
2011

11. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
2011

12. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Ffynhonnell: DC2112, 2011; C0156, 2001
Source

13. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Ffynhonnell: DC2115, 2011; C0584, 2001

14. Modelu trosglwyddo
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Tebygolrwydd y bydd plentyn yn gallu siarad Cymraeg =
logit-1
(Cyfrifiad + Math o deulu + Ardal + NS-SEC +
Cyfrifiad:Math o deulu + Ardal:Math o deulu

15. Modelling transmission
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Probability that a child will speak Welsh = logit-1
(Census + Family
type+ Area + NS-SEC + Census:Family type + Area:Family type)

16. Ar goll
Missing
Cyfraddau trosglwyddo: Lefel adran etholiadol
Transmission rates: ward level
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Cyplau – 2
oedolyn
Cymraeg
Cyplau – 1
oedolyn
Cymraeg
Rhiant unigol –
1 oedolyn
Cymraeg
Couples – 2
adults speak
Welsh
Couples – 1 adult
speaks Welsh
Single parent – 1
adult speaks Welsh

17. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Cydberthyniad cyfraddau trosglwyddo (Spearman) 2011,
lefel awdurdodau lleol
(Spearman) correlation of transmission rates 2011, local
authority level
% yn gallu
siarad Cymraeg,
16 i 64 oed
Cwpl – 2
oedolyn
Cymraeg
Rhiant
unigol
Cymraeg
Cwpl - 1
oedolyn
Cymraeg
Couple: 2 WS adult
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10 30 50
0.40.60.8
0.20.40.60.8
0.30 Lone parent: WS
0.65
** 0.55
*** Couple: 1 WS adult
0.300.400.500.60
0.4 0.6 0.8
103050
0.59
* 0.62
***
0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60
0.56
*** % of pop.16-64 Welsh spk

18. 2011
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Cyplau – 1
oedolyn
Cymraeg

19. 2011
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Cyplau – 2
oedolyn
Cymraeg

20. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
MSOAs
Dosbarthiad cyfraddau crai cyplau – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg
Distribution of crude rates of couples– 2 adult speaks Welsh

21. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
MSOAs
Dosbarthiad cyfraddau cyplau wedi eu llyfnu (+0.5 i rai heb ddata) – 2
oedolyn Cymraeg
Distribution of rates of couples smoothed (+0.5 to those with no data) – 2
adults speak Welsh

22. Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
MSOAs
Dosbarthiad cyfraddau cyplau – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg –
wedi eu llyfnu (empirig Bayes gofodol)
Distribution of rates of couples – 2 adult speaks Welsh
– smoothed (spatial empirical Bayes)

23. Meddalwedd
• R – i gael ffiniau Cymru o rai
Cymru a Lloegr geir o wefan y
SYG; dadansoddi; siartiau
(gyda ggplot2); modelu
• GeoDa – i archwilio’r data, a
llyfnu gofodol
• MapInfo – i lunio mapiau
terfynol
• ManyEyes – i archwilio’r data,
a chyflwyno data manwl
• http://ibm.co/18rIb38
• http://ibm.co/1goGJh0
• Excel – i’r cyhoedd
• Google Fusion
• R – to extract Wales’
boundaries from England and
Wales on ONS website;
analysis; charts (with ggplot2);
modelling
• GeoDa – exploratory analysis
and spatial smoothing
• MapInfo – for final map design
• ManyEyes - EDA and
presentation of detailed data
• http://ibm.co/18rIb38
• http://ibm.co/1goGJh0
• Excel – public presentation
• Google Fusion tables
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language
Commissioner 2013
Software

24. Cyfeiriadau
References
• GeoDa https://geodacenter.asu.edu/projects/opengeoda
• Jones, H. (2007a) Goblygiadau newidiadau ym mhroffil oedran siaradwyr
Cymraeg a’u dosbarthiad gofodol. Gwerddon I: 2 Hydref, 10-37.
www.gwerddon.org
• Jones, H. (2009) The intergenerational transmission of the Welsh
language: an analysis of the 2001 Census results for Wales. Paper
presented to BSPS Annual Conference 2009.
http://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/archive/20120330035624/http://www
.byig-wlb.org.uk/English/publications/Publications/BSPS
%202009%20Conference%20The%20intergenerational%20transmission
%20of%20Welsh%2020090910.pdf
• Jones, H. (2012) A statistical overview of the Welsh language. Welsh
Language Board
• http://www.comisiynyddygymraeg.org/Cymraeg/Cymorth/dataacystadegau/P
ages/Hafandataacystadegau.aspx
• post@comisiynyddygymraeg.org
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh
Language Commissioner 2012