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I s t o r i c a l ly p I r a n ta n s h av e h at b o r e d f e a r s o f R u s s fa n d ox f n a t i o n
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al have v teved Russia as the malor threat to their territorial
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Russ ïan objec tives , o f dom ina ting Persian G u lf af fairs . and
e s t a b l i sh i n g a l an d b t i d g e to w a rm w a t e r p o r t s , v t l l c o n t in u e
t o g u id e So v t e t p o l tc y i h th e M i d d le E a s t a n d S o u tb à s t a .
Th e Sh ah k n ow s th a t m i l i ta r y o c c u p a t to n o f Ir a n v ou ld b e tb e

fa stes t m e an s for tb e Sov t et: to ach tev e the se ob je ctiv es .
B u t h e p r o b a b l y v i ew s su ch a c ti o n a s h i gh ly u n l tk e ly a t t h e
l
lunl n t b e c a u se o f S ov t e t p r e o c c u p a t io n w i tb m o r e tm p o r t a n t
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F u r th e r
h e c o u n t s o n t h e U .S . to a s s i s t i n a
d e f e n s e a ga i n s t tb e P S S R . W h a t e o n c e r n s b i m f a r m o r e i p th e
in d i r e c L th r e a t w h i c h th e S ov i e t s p o se th r o u gh tb e i r a s s i s ta n c e y
b o th o v e r t a n d c ov e r t
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le r e a t o n v h i c h a p p e a r
i n t en t on u n d e r m in in g I r a n t an se c u r i ty . T h e s t r a t e g i c im p l i ca t to n s t o I r a n o f c l o u e p o l i t i c a l t i e s am o n g In d i a
I r aq ,
A f g h a n i s t a n an d th e K S G R w o r r te s th e S h a h .
l
le p e r c e iv e s a
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zf So v ie t in d u c e d c o l l u s f on a m on g th e ee c o u n t r i e p
i n t e n s i f v in g a l l t h e o th e r th r e a t s to I r a n f an i n t e r e G t a . W i tb
s ig r s o f d e c l in i n g S o v i e t ï n f lu e n ce i n th e H a s t e r n M e d i t e r r a n e an .
th e S ha h fe a r s th a t t h e D S S R w i l l n o w tu r n w i th i n c r e a s e d v i g o r
t o e x p an d i n g i ts t n f lu e n ce i n tb e G u l f , c e m e n t in g t i e s w i th
A f g h a n t s t a n a n d I r a q in t N e n o r th a n u s u p p o r t in g i n s u r g e n t
a t t em p t s to t op p le c on s e r v a t iv e go v e r n m en t s in t h e l i t t o r a l
s ta te s t u t h c s ou t h'
.
T h t s f s t h e p r tm a ry r e a so n th a t t h e S h a h
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b a c k e d b y t h e P D RY , a S o v i e t c l ï en t . H e f t th e r f s a p p re h e n s iv e
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ov e r d e v e lo p m e n ts $. T u rk e y fe a r i n : d i m in i s h e d T u r k i sh s ta b t l i ty ,
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T h e S h a h a l s o s e e a t h e s e c u r i t y o f h ts o f l fa c t l i t f e s a n d
o i l r o u ke s t o t N e U e s t a s v i t a l ly tn p o r ta n t t o I r an .
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  • 1. G ?% t% ? :%%h Jran - ot ) : ?# @ 5 - 1. (S) T hreat as erce fv ed b Iran . T h e S h ah p e r c e iv e s m a n y th r e a t s f a c tn g Ir a n i n t h e y e a r s a h e a d . P r tm a r y an o n g th e s e t s t h e th r e a t fr ol th e S o v t e t D n i o l . n I s t o r i c a l ly p I r a n ta n s h av e h at b o r e d f e a r s o f R u s s fa n d ox f n a t i o n li al have v teved Russia as the malor threat to their territorial 'd f a t e g r i ty . R e c e n t I r a n f a a - s o v fe t e c o n o m i c c o op e r a ti on n o t- w ith s ta n d in g , t h e Sh a h f i rm ly b e ti e v e s th a t th e h t e to r t c Russ ïan objec tives , o f dom ina ting Persian G u lf af fairs . and e s t a b l i sh i n g a l an d b t i d g e to w a rm w a t e r p o r t s , v t l l c o n t in u e t o g u id e So v t e t p o l tc y i h th e M i d d le E a s t a n d S o u tb à s t a . Th e Sh ah k n ow s th a t m i l i ta r y o c c u p a t to n o f Ir a n v ou ld b e tb e fa stes t m e an s for tb e Sov t et: to ach tev e the se ob je ctiv es . B u t h e p r o b a b l y v i ew s su ch a c ti o n a s h i gh ly u n l tk e ly a t t h e l lunl n t b e c a u se o f S ov t e t p r e o c c u p a t io n w i tb m o r e tm p o r t a n t e i s s u e s s u c h a s E u r o p e a n d e te n t e 9 C h in a : a n d tm p ro v e d r e la t io n s w i t h t h e U .S . F u r th e r h e c o u n t s o n t h e U .S . to a s s i s t i n a d e f e n s e a ga i n s t tb e P S S R . W h a t e o n c e r n s b i m f a r m o r e i p th e in d i r e c L th r e a t w h i c h th e S ov i e t s p o se th r o u gh tb e i r a s s i s ta n c e y b o th o v e r t a n d c ov e r t t o th o s e g ov e r n m e n t s - - p a r ti c u l a r ly I r a q 's - - a n d d i s a id e n t e l em e a t s i a tl le r e a t o n v h i c h a p p e a r i n t en t on u n d e r m in in g I r a n t an se c u r i ty . T h e s t r a t e g i c im p l i ca t to n s t o I r a n o f c l o u e p o l i t i c a l t i e s am o n g In d i a I r aq , A f g h a n i s t a n an d th e K S G R w o r r te s th e S h a h . l le p e r c e iv e s a th t ea c ç zf So v ie t in d u c e d c o l l u s f on a m on g th e ee c o u n t r i e p i n t e n s i f v in g a l l t h e o th e r th r e a t s to I r a n f an i n t e r e G t a . W i tb s ig r s o f d e c l in i n g S o v i e t ï n f lu e n ce i n th e H a s t e r n M e d i t e r r a n e an . th e S ha h fe a r s th a t t h e D S S R w i l l n o w tu r n w i th i n c r e a s e d v i g o r t o e x p an d i n g i ts t n f lu e n ce i n tb e G u l f , c e m e n t in g t i e s w i th A f g h a n t s t a n a n d I r a q in t N e n o r th a n u s u p p o r t in g i n s u r g e n t a t t em p t s to t op p le c on s e r v a t iv e go v e r n m en t s in t h e l i t t o r a l s ta te s t u t h c s ou t h' . T h t s f s t h e p r tm a ry r e a so n th a t t h e S h a h h a s c om n i t te d Ir an i a n f o r c e s i n O m a n t o c om b a t th e r e 1 e l l i o n b a c k e d b y t h e P D RY , a S o v i e t c l ï en t . H e f t th e r f s a p p re h e n s iv e tr ov e r d e v e lo p m e n ts $. T u rk e y fe a r i n : d i m in i s h e d T u r k i sh s ta b t l i ty , n w b t c h c o u ld e n d a r g e r I ra n l a n s e e u r i ty i n t L t àe i u o u x uu . blt 'e ov e l z. u P a k i s ta n 's in t e r n a l p o l t t i c a l p r o b le m s c om p o un d e d b y d i s s i d e n c e tn irs Northwest Frontier and Baluchistan (rovincea . also raise j k g r ,. e d o u b t s i n h t s m tn d o v e t P a k i s ta n 's a b t l i ty t o h o l d to g e tb e r . rv : n f ed , t l te te Sh ah v i ew s th e la te n t B a lu c h l s e p a r a ti s t m ov em e n t in P ak ts ta n a s a d ir e c t t h r e a t t o I r a n i an B a lu c h t s t an . w T h e S h a h a l s o s e e a t h e s e c u r i t y o f h ts o f l fa c t l i t f e s a n d o i l r o u ke s t o t N e U e s t a s v i t a l ly tn p o r ta n t t o I r an . Be is e x e r e p e l y se ns t tiv e to t h e v u l n e ra b il ï t y o f h ï s p a in o i l 725 T $ ..x. . !,. . . 4 %' J . . - , . , . 7 ; 4w- Zl *-- -- --Vk C i. w su .z k ' ' * ' * ,