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Leveraged Loan Update
      September - 2010
Steve Miller - Managing Director
Copyright 2010 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any
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security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to
be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any
information it receives.

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The loan market in August
              Slower, not stopped

• S&P/LSTA Loan Index up 0.34% in August;
 money continues into credit markets, though
 tone tempered

• Primary market: Strong demand, strong supply
                       out




• New-issue yields steady

• Rest of 2010? Volume via dividend deals as PE
 firms eye end of Bush tax cuts

• Default rates move sideways
Average bid, loan flow names, 2010 to date

 97




 95
                                                                     93.55 on 9/07
                                            Text
                                            outro




92




90
01/05/10              03/04/10                  05/4/10   07/01/10        09/08/10
Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
New-issue clearing yields
9.00%
                                             Rest of 2010?
            August: 7.9%                     BB:    5.5-6.5%
                                             B+/B1: 6.5-7.5%
              July: 7.8%                     B/B2: 7.5-9%
8.13%



 7.25%



 6.38%



  5.50%

         9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09 1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10

 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan returns (S&P/LSTA Loan Index)
 9.00

                                                   Aug. 2010:        +0.34%
                                                   2010 thru Aug:    +5.30%
 5.88
                                                          HY         +8.50%
                                                    out
                                                          S&P 500:   - 4.50%

 2.75



-0.38
         August BB: +0.60%                     YTD          BB: +4%
                 B: +0.15%                                   B: +5%
               CCC: +0.19%                                 CCC: +14%
-3.50
    1/09               5/09                 9/09             1/10        5/10   8/10

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan volume, outstandings ($bils.)
                           Volume                                           Outstandings

20                                                      600



15                                                      450



10                                                      300



 5                                                      150



 0                                                        0
 6/09              11/09             4/10        8/10         2005   2007    2009   4/10   6/10   8/10



     Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan default rate (principal amount)
12
                   August Loan Defaults
                   •Oriental Trading
                   •Boston Generating
 9
                   Rates expected to hold at 3-4% for
                   next 18 mos.
                                             outro
 6

                                                                     3.57%
 3



 0
  1/05              3/06              5/07           7/08   9/09   8/10
Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Market Outlook
• Loan activity: Dividends deals, refinancing,
plus M&A

• Eyes on inflows, backing bond takeouts, ‘old-
school’ lending
                        out



• Repayment sources: M&A, plus IPOs (if
stocks cooperate)

• Inflows = demand: $405M in August, $5.4B
YTD

• Default rates likely to slide further
Leveraged Loan Update
      September - 2010
Steve Miller - Managing Director

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Sept. 2010 US- Leveraged Loan Market Analysis - September 2010

  • 1. Leveraged Loan Update September - 2010 Steve Miller - Managing Director
  • 2. Copyright 2010 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any Text part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are pause made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.
  • 3. The loan market in August Slower, not stopped • S&P/LSTA Loan Index up 0.34% in August; money continues into credit markets, though tone tempered • Primary market: Strong demand, strong supply out • New-issue yields steady • Rest of 2010? Volume via dividend deals as PE firms eye end of Bush tax cuts • Default rates move sideways
  • 4. Average bid, loan flow names, 2010 to date 97 95 93.55 on 9/07 Text outro 92 90 01/05/10 03/04/10 05/4/10 07/01/10 09/08/10 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 5. New-issue clearing yields 9.00% Rest of 2010? August: 7.9% BB: 5.5-6.5% B+/B1: 6.5-7.5% July: 7.8% B/B2: 7.5-9% 8.13% 7.25% 6.38% 5.50% 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09 1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 6. Loan returns (S&P/LSTA Loan Index) 9.00 Aug. 2010: +0.34% 2010 thru Aug: +5.30% 5.88 HY +8.50% out S&P 500: - 4.50% 2.75 -0.38 August BB: +0.60% YTD BB: +4% B: +0.15% B: +5% CCC: +0.19% CCC: +14% -3.50 1/09 5/09 9/09 1/10 5/10 8/10 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. Loan volume, outstandings ($bils.) Volume Outstandings 20 600 15 450 10 300 5 150 0 0 6/09 11/09 4/10 8/10 2005 2007 2009 4/10 6/10 8/10 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Loan default rate (principal amount) 12 August Loan Defaults •Oriental Trading •Boston Generating 9 Rates expected to hold at 3-4% for next 18 mos. outro 6 3.57% 3 0 1/05 3/06 5/07 7/08 9/09 8/10 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 9. Market Outlook • Loan activity: Dividends deals, refinancing, plus M&A • Eyes on inflows, backing bond takeouts, ‘old- school’ lending out • Repayment sources: M&A, plus IPOs (if stocks cooperate) • Inflows = demand: $405M in August, $5.4B YTD • Default rates likely to slide further
  • 10. Leveraged Loan Update September - 2010 Steve Miller - Managing Director