Under the Lens -Audio Slides - 03-19-13 - sub-GMTP - APRIL 2013 - GOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE
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The document discusses global governance failures and macroeconomic risks. It analyzes problems in the EU related to Cyprus, Italy, France, distrust and austerity. It also covers issues in Japan around desperation and policy approaches like Abenomics, and challenges in China regarding stability, corruption and shadow banking. In the US, it discusses denial around exploding budget deficits. It asserts that current monetary, fiscal and public policy is not working, and that financial repression policies have helped but stalled economic growth. Overall, the document examines governance problems fueling macroeconomic risks globally.
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Under the Lens -Audio Slides - 03-19-13 - sub-GMTP - APRIL 2013 - GOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE
- 1. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 2. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure GOVERNANCE FAILURE CORE PROBLEM SYMPTOM GLOBAL RISK • 2008 Concerns Political Roadmap • Central Bank Policy Political OMF MACRO SITUATION • EU – Cyprus Distrust Confiscation • EU – Italy Distrust / Contempt Austerity • EU – France Socialism Culture • Japan Desperation Abenomics • China Stability Corruption Shadow Banking US ECONOMICS • Sequestration Spin Denial Exploding Deficits Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 3. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 4. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 5. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 6. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 7. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure POLICY NOT WORKING – Monetary, Fiscal nor Public Policy Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 8. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure POLICY NOT WORKING – Monetary, Fiscal nor Public Policy Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 9. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure POLICY NOT WORKING – Monetary, Fiscal nor Public Policy Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 10. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure FINANCIAL REPRESSION – Working But Has Stalled Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 11. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 12. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure CYPRUS– Theft, Abandonment of Property Rights & Guarantees Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 13. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure ITALY – Distrust & Contempt Beppi Grillo Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 14. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 15. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure FRANCE – Culture of Socialism ..tick, tick, tick…. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 16. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure JAPAN – Frustration & Fear Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 17. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure CHINA – Social Stability 50 Million /Year Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 18. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure CHINA – Social Stability Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 19. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure USA – Political Avoidance & Denial, One Bubble After Another! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 20. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 21. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 22. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 23. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 24. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 25. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 26. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 27. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 28. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 29. Global Macro Tipping Points March 19th, 2011 Global Governance Failure Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 30. DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Editor's Notes
- $1.4 trillion in credit growth in 2012 Corporate bond issuance grew 54% or $657 billion in 2012 According to Barclay’s, the Chinese “‘shadow banking’ industry has nearly doubled in the past two years to $4.11 trillion, or more than a third of total lending China’s plan to allow a 50% jump in its budget deficit to stimulate the economy is driving government bond yields higher, just as inflation accelerates. Ten-year yields may rise 43 bps to 4% by year-end, a level last seen in September 2011, according to HSBC…, HSBC estimates the government will expand its domestic bond sales by an extra 400 billion yuan ($64.3bn) this year to plug a 1.2 trillion yuan deficit, the biggest shortfall since the 2008 global financial crisis Chinese banks have rolled over at least three-quarters of all loans to local governments that were due to mature by the end of 2012, an indication of the immense challenge facing China in working down its debt load. Local governments borrowed heavily from banks to fuel China’s stimulus program during the global financial crisis and are now struggling to generate the revenue to pay them back, a shortfall that could cast a shadow over Chinese economic growth. Banks extended at least Rmb3tn – and perhaps more – of the roughly Rmb4tn in loans plus interest that local governments were to have paid them by the end of last year. Caterpillar just wrote off $600 million that they “invested” in a Chinese heavy equipment company after accounting fraud was identified by internal auditors
- El-Erian: “Financial Repression” In the Form of a Negative Real Rate of Return for Savers Is Coming to AmericaPosted on May 17, 2011 by WashingtonsBlogAs CNBC notes:“Others are flashing orange, like the US, and already require future sacrifices, most likely through a combination of higher inflation, austerity and, importantly, financial repression,” said El-Erian, who classifies financial repression as seeking to impose negative real rates of returns on savers.This policy will undermine the real return contract offered to savers and, in El-Erian’s view, come instead of any bold moves to address structural problems and imbalances.“Secular baseline portfolio positioning should minimize exposure to the negative impact of financial repression, hedge against higher inflation and currency depreciation and exploit the heightened differentiation in balance sheets and growth potentials,” El-Erian added.In other words, Pimco co-chair El-Erian is saying that the major flaws in the financial system will not be addressed, the government will keep on printing money, and that the inflation-adjusted return on investments for most Americans will be negative.