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Ukraine. Combat with
corruption and economic
development.
Current stage, analysis and recommendations.
© Andrii Sheveliev, 2016-2017
Ukraine. Factsheet
• Population, million: 44,291,413 (July 2014 est.) 32nd in the world
• Territory: 603,550 sq. km, 46th in the world
• GDP per capita, current US$ $2,122 (2015)
• GDP - per capita (PPP): $8,000 (2015 est.)
• GDP - real growth rate: -9.9% (2015 est.) (CIA, 2016)
• GDP - composition, by sector of origin: agriculture: 14.1%, industry:
26.4%, services: 60%
• Life Expectancy at Birth, years: 71.0 (2014) (The World Bank, 2016)
Ukraine. Geographical position
Ukraine. Claim to fame
• Aero-space heritage
• Igor Sykorsky
• Sergey Korovev – designer
of the first manned space rocket.
• An 225 Mriya –
the largest airplane in the world.
• Voluntary gave up the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world - more than
1,000 warheads.
• World Top 5: Grain exporter, % of agricultural land, # of certified IT specialists.
Ukraine. Corruption
• Corruption Perceptions Index - 130th out of 167 countries.
(Transparency International, 2016) .
• Control of corruption indicator - 177th out of 209 countries.
(The World Bank, 2015) .
• Corruption Rank - 114th out of 150 countries.
(World Audit.org, 2015).
Methodology. Sensitive factors.
Favorable factors of growing economies:
• Macroeconomic and Political stability.
• Investment in Health and Education.
• Effectiveness of governance and Institutions.
• Favorable environment for private enterprise
• Favorable Geography
(Perkins, Radelet, Lindauer, “Economics of development”.).
Methodology. 4 Key indicators
A. Effectiveness of governance and Institutions
1. CCI (Control of corruption index) as part of the Worldwide Governance
Indicators. (The World Bank Group).
2. Quality of Institutions as part of Global Competitiveness Index
(World Economic Forum).
B. Favorable environment for private enterprise
3. Doing Business Rank measures (The World Bank Group).
4. Business impact of rules on FDI as part of Global Competitiveness Index
(World Economic Forum).
Ukraine. 2015 Indicators.
1. Control of corruption indicator - 177th out of 209.
2. Quality of Institutions – 130th out of 140
countries.
2.1. Property rights 132th out of 140
2.2. Irregular payments and bribes 122th out of 140
2.3. Judicial independence 132th out of 140
2.4. Wastefulness of government spending 134th out of 140
2.5. Reliability of police services 133th out of 140
2.6. Strength of auditing and reporting standards 124th out of 140
Ukraine. 2015 Indicators.
3. Doing Business Rank
3.1.Enforcing Contracts 93th out of 190
3.2. Paying Taxes 83th out of 190
3.3. Trading across the borders 110th out of 190
3.4.Resolving Insolvency 148th out of 190
3.5. Dealing with Construction Permits 137th out of 190
4. Business impact of rules on FDI in Ukraine 122th out of 140
Government action.
• "2014 Anti-Corruption Package“.
• Public procurement system ProZorro. 2014-2016.
• New police.
• Tax policy changes
• VAT regime in agriculture terminated
• Significantly reduced social security taxation
• A new internal investigation division at State Fiscal Service
• Mandatory assets E-declaration of politicians and officials.
Analysis. Indicators.
1. Quality of institution
• Indicator Rank 2015 Rank 2016
• Overall 130 129
• Property rights 132 130
• Irregular payments and bribes 122 119
• Favoritism in decisions of government officials 99 109
• Wastefulness of government spending 134 129
• Reliability of police services 133 104
• Judicial independence 132 129
The World Economic Forum (2015, 2016)
Analysis. Indicators.
2. Doing Business Rank Rank 2015 Rank 2016
• Overall 81 80
• Enforcing Contracts 93 81
• Paying Taxes 83 84
• Resolving Insolvency 148 150
• Dealing with Construction Permits 137 140
(The World Bank Group, 2016)
3. Foreign direct investments (FDI)
• Business impact of rules on FDI in Ukraine: 2015 2016
(The World Economic Forum, 2016) 122th out of 140 130th out of 138
4. Control of corruption index (The World Bank Group). No data available for 2016. Low 2015
Index (177th amongst 209 countries) reflects negative tendencies prior to 2015 year.
Analysis. Government actions
• Institutional quality – no significant changes.
• Improvement - Reliability of police services, Wastefulness of government spending.
• Worsening - Favoritism in decisions of government officials.
• Actions corresponded – Public procurement system ProZorro and New Police.
• Effectiveness of governance – low CCI index (2015), worsened (Favoritism in decisions of government officials).
• ! Lack of action.
• Private enterprise environment – no significant changes.
• Improvement - Enforcing Contracts
• Actions corresponded – Public procurement system ProZorro
• Foreign direct investments (FDI) – worsened.
• Worsening - Business impact of rules on FDI in Ukraine.
• ! Lack of action.
Ukraine. Recommendations.
1. Ukrainian government should address following components those did
not have enough attention and programs implemented yet:
• Judicial and independence 129th rank out of 138
• Property rights 130th rank out of 138
• Efficacy of corporate boards 121st rank out of 138
• Strength of auditing and reporting standards 129th rank out of 138
• Strength of investor protection 79th rank out of 138
• Resolving Insolvency 150th rank out of 190
• Permits and licensing 130-140th rank out of 190
• Trading across the borders 110th rank out of 190
• Favoritism in decisions of government officials (worsened during 2016).
Ukraine. Recommendations.
2. Implement programs to improve “Business impact of rules on
Foreign Direct Investments in Ukraine.
3. Implement the programs to continue improvement in following
indicators: “Reliability of police services”, “Wastefulness of
government spending”, “Irregular payments and bribes”.
4. Judicial independence and quality of prosecution considered as the
key element of providing effective legal environment and increase
rule of law as favorable environment for economic development.
Implications.
• Methodology, developed in this paper and exanimated on the country
hardly affected by corruption, gives the tools to measure the state of
combat with corruption, using changes in trustful indicators provided
by the global organizations dedicated to economic development.
• We believe this methodology might be helpful in both measuring of
impact of corruption on economic growth and analysis of
effectiveness of the actions enacted to combat with corruption.
Implications.
Indicators (CCI, Quality of Institutions, Doing Business, FDI…)
Actions
Changes in Indicators
Analysis, Recommendations
New Revised Actions
Combat with corruption and economic
growth.
• Questions?
• Thought?
• Recommendations?
Sources.
1. Central Intelligence Agency, 2016, “The World Factbook”. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/up.html
2. The World Bank, 2016, “Ukraine. Overview”, http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview
3. BBC, 2016 (February 16), “Ukraine country profile”, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18018002
4. Dwight H Perkins, Steven Radelet, David L. Lindauer, 2006 (August 28) “Economics of development, 6th edition”. P. 76.
5. Transparency International, 2016, “Corruption Perceptions Index 2015”, https://www.transparency.org/cpi2015/
6. World Audit, “The World Democracy Audit 2015”, http://www.worldaudit.org/corruption.htm
7. Dwight H Perkins, Steven Radelet, David L. Lindauer, 2006 (August 28) “Economics of development, 6th edition”. P. 81.
8. The World Bank. “Worldwide Governance Indicators”. 2015, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?Report_Name=WGI-Table&Id=ceea4d8b#
9. The World Bank, “Worldwide Governance Indicators”, 2015, http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#reports
10. U.S. Department of State, 2015 (May), "2015 Investment Climate Statement, Ukraine", https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/241993.pdf
11. World Economic Forum, "Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016", 2015 http://www3.weforum.org/docs/gcr/2015-2016/UKR.pdf
12. European Chamber, 2015 (March), "Foreign Direct Investment per capita in Europe", http://eucham.eu/charts/153-2015-03-foreign-direct-investment-per-capita-
in-europe
13. Robert Kirchner, Vitaliy Kravchuk, Julian Ries. German Advisory Group Ukraine, 2015 (February), "Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine: Past, Present, and Future",
http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/PP_02_2015_en.pdf
14. Dragon Capital. 2016 (September 14). "Major obstacles to foreign investments in Ukraine", http://www.dragon-
capital.com/en/about/media/press_releases/corruption_and_lack_of_trust_in_the_judiciary_in_ukraine_are_the_largest_obstacles_for_foreign_investors.html
15. Kusi Hornberger, Joseph Battat, and Peter Kusek. 2011 (August), The World Bank Group. Note Number 327, "How Much Does Investment Climate Matter"?
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/FINANCIALSECTOR/Resources/327-Attracting-FDI.pdf
Sources.
16. The World Bank Group, DOING BUSINESS Measuring Business Regulations, 2016, http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/ukraine
17. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 2016, "Doing Business 2017. A World Bank Group Flagship Report",
http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/WBG/DoingBusiness/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB17-Full-Report.pdf
18. Guy Faulconbridge, Anna Dabrowska and Stephen Grey. 2014 (April 30), Reuters. "Toppled 'mafia' president cost Ukraine up to $100 billion, prosecutor says",
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-yanukovich-idUSBREA3T0K820140430
19. KyivPost. 2014 (October 23), "Ukraine: parliament passes important laws to tackle corruption", https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/business-wire/ukraine-parliament-
passes-important-laws-to-tackle-corruption-369122.html
20. Mara Lemos Stein. The Wall Street Journal. 2016 (May 19), Ukraine Looks to Unmask Corruption with ProZorro E-Procurement,
http://blogs.wsj.com/riskandcompliance/2016/05/19/ukraine-looks-to-unmask-corruption-with-prozorro-e-procurement
21. Yuriy Bugay, Open Contracting Partnership, 2016 (July 28), "ProZorro: How a volunteer project led to nation-wide procurement reform in Ukraine", http://www.open-
contracting.org/2016/07/28/prozorro-volunteer-project-led-nation-wide-procurement-reform-ukraine/
22. Index Mundi, 2015, "Police Corruption Perceptions Index", http://www.indexmundi.com/surveys/results/1
23. Interfax-Ukraine. 2016 (October 20), “Police attestation completed, 26% of police commanders dismissed”, http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/377904.html
24. Katie Laroque, Atlantic Counsil. 2016 (May 11), "One Year Later, Ukraine’s Patrol Police Enjoy Massive Spike in Trust", http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/one-
year-later-ukraine-s-patrol-police-enjoy-massive-spike-in-trust
25. Oleksii Khmara. Transparency International. 2015 (November 16), Anti-corruption reform in Ukraine: going round in circles. http://blog.transparency.org/2015/11/16/anti-
corruption-reform-in-ukraine-going-round-in-circles/
26. International Monetary Fund, 2016 (September 1), Ukraine: Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding,
http://www.imf.org/External/NP/LOI/2016/UKR/090116.pdf
27. Pavel Polityuk and Margaryta Chornokondratenko, Reuters, 2016 (October 24), "Time to declare: Ukrainian anti-corruption reform faces threats",
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-corruption-idUSKCN12O1Y7
28. Alessandra Prentice, Reuters, 2016 (October 31), "Ukrainians shocked as politicians declare vast wealth", http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-corruption-
idUSKBN12V1EN
29. World Economic Forum, "Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017", 2016, http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-index/country-profiles/#economy=UKR

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Ukraine

  • 1. Ukraine. Combat with corruption and economic development. Current stage, analysis and recommendations. © Andrii Sheveliev, 2016-2017
  • 2. Ukraine. Factsheet • Population, million: 44,291,413 (July 2014 est.) 32nd in the world • Territory: 603,550 sq. km, 46th in the world • GDP per capita, current US$ $2,122 (2015) • GDP - per capita (PPP): $8,000 (2015 est.) • GDP - real growth rate: -9.9% (2015 est.) (CIA, 2016) • GDP - composition, by sector of origin: agriculture: 14.1%, industry: 26.4%, services: 60% • Life Expectancy at Birth, years: 71.0 (2014) (The World Bank, 2016)
  • 4. Ukraine. Claim to fame • Aero-space heritage • Igor Sykorsky • Sergey Korovev – designer of the first manned space rocket. • An 225 Mriya – the largest airplane in the world. • Voluntary gave up the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world - more than 1,000 warheads. • World Top 5: Grain exporter, % of agricultural land, # of certified IT specialists.
  • 5. Ukraine. Corruption • Corruption Perceptions Index - 130th out of 167 countries. (Transparency International, 2016) . • Control of corruption indicator - 177th out of 209 countries. (The World Bank, 2015) . • Corruption Rank - 114th out of 150 countries. (World Audit.org, 2015).
  • 6. Methodology. Sensitive factors. Favorable factors of growing economies: • Macroeconomic and Political stability. • Investment in Health and Education. • Effectiveness of governance and Institutions. • Favorable environment for private enterprise • Favorable Geography (Perkins, Radelet, Lindauer, “Economics of development”.).
  • 7. Methodology. 4 Key indicators A. Effectiveness of governance and Institutions 1. CCI (Control of corruption index) as part of the Worldwide Governance Indicators. (The World Bank Group). 2. Quality of Institutions as part of Global Competitiveness Index (World Economic Forum). B. Favorable environment for private enterprise 3. Doing Business Rank measures (The World Bank Group). 4. Business impact of rules on FDI as part of Global Competitiveness Index (World Economic Forum).
  • 8. Ukraine. 2015 Indicators. 1. Control of corruption indicator - 177th out of 209. 2. Quality of Institutions – 130th out of 140 countries. 2.1. Property rights 132th out of 140 2.2. Irregular payments and bribes 122th out of 140 2.3. Judicial independence 132th out of 140 2.4. Wastefulness of government spending 134th out of 140 2.5. Reliability of police services 133th out of 140 2.6. Strength of auditing and reporting standards 124th out of 140
  • 9. Ukraine. 2015 Indicators. 3. Doing Business Rank 3.1.Enforcing Contracts 93th out of 190 3.2. Paying Taxes 83th out of 190 3.3. Trading across the borders 110th out of 190 3.4.Resolving Insolvency 148th out of 190 3.5. Dealing with Construction Permits 137th out of 190 4. Business impact of rules on FDI in Ukraine 122th out of 140
  • 10. Government action. • "2014 Anti-Corruption Package“. • Public procurement system ProZorro. 2014-2016. • New police. • Tax policy changes • VAT regime in agriculture terminated • Significantly reduced social security taxation • A new internal investigation division at State Fiscal Service • Mandatory assets E-declaration of politicians and officials.
  • 11. Analysis. Indicators. 1. Quality of institution • Indicator Rank 2015 Rank 2016 • Overall 130 129 • Property rights 132 130 • Irregular payments and bribes 122 119 • Favoritism in decisions of government officials 99 109 • Wastefulness of government spending 134 129 • Reliability of police services 133 104 • Judicial independence 132 129 The World Economic Forum (2015, 2016)
  • 12. Analysis. Indicators. 2. Doing Business Rank Rank 2015 Rank 2016 • Overall 81 80 • Enforcing Contracts 93 81 • Paying Taxes 83 84 • Resolving Insolvency 148 150 • Dealing with Construction Permits 137 140 (The World Bank Group, 2016) 3. Foreign direct investments (FDI) • Business impact of rules on FDI in Ukraine: 2015 2016 (The World Economic Forum, 2016) 122th out of 140 130th out of 138 4. Control of corruption index (The World Bank Group). No data available for 2016. Low 2015 Index (177th amongst 209 countries) reflects negative tendencies prior to 2015 year.
  • 13. Analysis. Government actions • Institutional quality – no significant changes. • Improvement - Reliability of police services, Wastefulness of government spending. • Worsening - Favoritism in decisions of government officials. • Actions corresponded – Public procurement system ProZorro and New Police. • Effectiveness of governance – low CCI index (2015), worsened (Favoritism in decisions of government officials). • ! Lack of action. • Private enterprise environment – no significant changes. • Improvement - Enforcing Contracts • Actions corresponded – Public procurement system ProZorro • Foreign direct investments (FDI) – worsened. • Worsening - Business impact of rules on FDI in Ukraine. • ! Lack of action.
  • 14. Ukraine. Recommendations. 1. Ukrainian government should address following components those did not have enough attention and programs implemented yet: • Judicial and independence 129th rank out of 138 • Property rights 130th rank out of 138 • Efficacy of corporate boards 121st rank out of 138 • Strength of auditing and reporting standards 129th rank out of 138 • Strength of investor protection 79th rank out of 138 • Resolving Insolvency 150th rank out of 190 • Permits and licensing 130-140th rank out of 190 • Trading across the borders 110th rank out of 190 • Favoritism in decisions of government officials (worsened during 2016).
  • 15. Ukraine. Recommendations. 2. Implement programs to improve “Business impact of rules on Foreign Direct Investments in Ukraine. 3. Implement the programs to continue improvement in following indicators: “Reliability of police services”, “Wastefulness of government spending”, “Irregular payments and bribes”. 4. Judicial independence and quality of prosecution considered as the key element of providing effective legal environment and increase rule of law as favorable environment for economic development.
  • 16. Implications. • Methodology, developed in this paper and exanimated on the country hardly affected by corruption, gives the tools to measure the state of combat with corruption, using changes in trustful indicators provided by the global organizations dedicated to economic development. • We believe this methodology might be helpful in both measuring of impact of corruption on economic growth and analysis of effectiveness of the actions enacted to combat with corruption.
  • 17. Implications. Indicators (CCI, Quality of Institutions, Doing Business, FDI…) Actions Changes in Indicators Analysis, Recommendations New Revised Actions
  • 18. Combat with corruption and economic growth. • Questions? • Thought? • Recommendations?
  • 19. Sources. 1. Central Intelligence Agency, 2016, “The World Factbook”. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/up.html 2. The World Bank, 2016, “Ukraine. Overview”, http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview 3. BBC, 2016 (February 16), “Ukraine country profile”, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18018002 4. Dwight H Perkins, Steven Radelet, David L. Lindauer, 2006 (August 28) “Economics of development, 6th edition”. P. 76. 5. Transparency International, 2016, “Corruption Perceptions Index 2015”, https://www.transparency.org/cpi2015/ 6. World Audit, “The World Democracy Audit 2015”, http://www.worldaudit.org/corruption.htm 7. Dwight H Perkins, Steven Radelet, David L. Lindauer, 2006 (August 28) “Economics of development, 6th edition”. P. 81. 8. The World Bank. “Worldwide Governance Indicators”. 2015, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?Report_Name=WGI-Table&Id=ceea4d8b# 9. The World Bank, “Worldwide Governance Indicators”, 2015, http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#reports 10. U.S. Department of State, 2015 (May), "2015 Investment Climate Statement, Ukraine", https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/241993.pdf 11. World Economic Forum, "Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016", 2015 http://www3.weforum.org/docs/gcr/2015-2016/UKR.pdf 12. European Chamber, 2015 (March), "Foreign Direct Investment per capita in Europe", http://eucham.eu/charts/153-2015-03-foreign-direct-investment-per-capita- in-europe 13. Robert Kirchner, Vitaliy Kravchuk, Julian Ries. German Advisory Group Ukraine, 2015 (February), "Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine: Past, Present, and Future", http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/PP_02_2015_en.pdf 14. Dragon Capital. 2016 (September 14). "Major obstacles to foreign investments in Ukraine", http://www.dragon- capital.com/en/about/media/press_releases/corruption_and_lack_of_trust_in_the_judiciary_in_ukraine_are_the_largest_obstacles_for_foreign_investors.html 15. Kusi Hornberger, Joseph Battat, and Peter Kusek. 2011 (August), The World Bank Group. Note Number 327, "How Much Does Investment Climate Matter"? http://siteresources.worldbank.org/FINANCIALSECTOR/Resources/327-Attracting-FDI.pdf
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