TREB Housing Market Analysis

1. Housing Market Charts –October 2014

2. Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardTorontoMLS SalesMonthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison2011201220132014

3. Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardTorontoMLS New ListingsMonthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison2011201220132014

4. Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases –often at a rate well above inflation. When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.10Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardTorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings RatioMonthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison2011201220132014

5. Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® average home price for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
$300,000$350,000$400,000$450,000$500,000$550,000$600,000$650,000Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardTorontoMLS Average Resale Home PriceMonthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison2011201220132014

6. Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.
2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardTorontoMLS SalesMonthly Time Series with Trend LineActual MLS® SalesTrend (12-Month Moving Average)

7. Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.
2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,000Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardTorontoMLS New ListingsMonthly Time Series with Trend LineActual MLS® New ListingsTrend (12-Month Moving Average)

8. Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the trend.
175,000225,000275,000325,000375,000425,000475,000525,000575,000625,000Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardTorontoMLS Average PriceMonthly Time Series with Trend LineActual MLS® Average PriceTrend (12-Month Moving Average)

9. Explanation: This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends lower.
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.20 Average Price Annual Per Cent Change(Brown Line) Sales-to-New Listings Ratio(Blue Line) Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardTorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home PriceSales-to-New Listings RatioAverage Price Annual Per Cent Change

10. Explanation: This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions:
1.Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB
2.20 per cent down payment
3.Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization
4.Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending
5.Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index
6.Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years upto2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by Statistics Canada in the LabourForce Survey (2006 onward).
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% *Note: Assumes TREB average price and average 5-Year fixed rate mortgage Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics CanadaTREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home