The document summarizes President Trump's 2018 trade actions, including tariffs on solar panels, washing machines, steel, and aluminum. It discusses who benefits and is hurt by each action. For steel and aluminum, US producers benefit from higher prices while US companies that use steel and aluminum as inputs are hurt by also facing higher prices. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries in response also hurt US exporters. Overall, the tariffs led to higher prices for businesses and consumers but supported some domestic production.
Professor Gary Gereffi's presentation at the South-Southeast Commission and FIDESUR covers:
- Trump’s Protectionism: the Current Context
- The Evolution of GVCs: 3 Eras
- GVC Competition for US Market: China vs. Mexico
- NAFTA’s Impact on the Mexican and U.S. Economies
The document discusses the history of US-China trade relations and the ongoing trade war between the two countries. It provides background on China joining the WTO in 2001 and the growth in trade between the US and China in the following years. However, wage stagnation in the US and China's large trade surplus led to rising tensions. In 2017, the Trump administration launched an investigation and imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. China retaliated with its own tariffs, escalating the trade war. Studies suggest both countries will face economic impacts, while the global economy will also experience effects from the ongoing conflict.
Shifting Trade Rules and the Future for North America’s Auto IndustryBoston Consulting Group
Two major initiatives by the US to overhaul trade rules could have a massive impact on North America’s automotive manufacturing industry. Here’s how companies should prepare.
The document discusses the importance of manufacturing for the U.S. economy and jobs. It summarizes trends showing a decline in manufacturing employment from 1970-2010 due largely to rising trade deficits, not productivity. Unfair trade practices like currency manipulation by other countries and their subsidies have contributed significantly. The decline can be addressed by reforming trade policies to curb manipulation, ending subsidies, and providing more support for U.S. manufacturers through job training, R&D funding, and infrastructure investment.
Tarr estimating the costs of trade restrictioins may 19Iryna Sobetska
This document summarizes the evolution of estimating the welfare gains from trade liberalization over time. It begins with some of the earliest papers developing methodologies in the 1950s-1970s to estimate costs of trade restrictions. It then discusses the author's applied case studies in the US in the 1970s-1980s estimating costs of various trade policies. The document outlines developments in modeling imperfect competition and computable general equilibrium modeling of trade policies in the 1980s-1990s. It concludes with discussing regional trade agreements and poverty assessments driving demand for trade policy evaluations.
The document discusses the trade war between the US and China. It provides background on how the conflict began with the US imposing tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods and China retaliating with tariffs on $110 billion of US goods. A key reason for tensions is the large US trade deficit with China. The trade war is negatively impacting both economies and global markets. Several rounds of escalating tariffs are outlined from 2018 to 2019.
The document discusses the trade tensions between the US and other countries regarding steel and aluminum tariffs. It provides background on President Trump's views on restarting the US steel industry and his belief that other countries were taking advantage of the US in trade. It also summarizes the reactions of the US, China, EU, and other countries to the tariffs. The EU and others threatened retaliation while China said it did not want a trade war but was not afraid of one. The document also discusses the potential impacts on domestic US industries and jobs as well as other countries' economies and strategies for responding to the trade tensions.
Canada's trade relationship with the US today | Hamilton Steel Summit Keynote...Gowling WLG
On Sept. 7, 2018, Gowling WLG and the City of Hamilton hosted a public summit at Hamilton's City Hall exploring the key challenges facing Hamilton's steel industry - with an emphasis on current obstacles posed by new U.S. tariffs.
Professor Gary Gereffi's presentation at the South-Southeast Commission and FIDESUR covers:
- Trump’s Protectionism: the Current Context
- The Evolution of GVCs: 3 Eras
- GVC Competition for US Market: China vs. Mexico
- NAFTA’s Impact on the Mexican and U.S. Economies
The document discusses the history of US-China trade relations and the ongoing trade war between the two countries. It provides background on China joining the WTO in 2001 and the growth in trade between the US and China in the following years. However, wage stagnation in the US and China's large trade surplus led to rising tensions. In 2017, the Trump administration launched an investigation and imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. China retaliated with its own tariffs, escalating the trade war. Studies suggest both countries will face economic impacts, while the global economy will also experience effects from the ongoing conflict.
Shifting Trade Rules and the Future for North America’s Auto IndustryBoston Consulting Group
Two major initiatives by the US to overhaul trade rules could have a massive impact on North America’s automotive manufacturing industry. Here’s how companies should prepare.
The document discusses the importance of manufacturing for the U.S. economy and jobs. It summarizes trends showing a decline in manufacturing employment from 1970-2010 due largely to rising trade deficits, not productivity. Unfair trade practices like currency manipulation by other countries and their subsidies have contributed significantly. The decline can be addressed by reforming trade policies to curb manipulation, ending subsidies, and providing more support for U.S. manufacturers through job training, R&D funding, and infrastructure investment.
Tarr estimating the costs of trade restrictioins may 19Iryna Sobetska
This document summarizes the evolution of estimating the welfare gains from trade liberalization over time. It begins with some of the earliest papers developing methodologies in the 1950s-1970s to estimate costs of trade restrictions. It then discusses the author's applied case studies in the US in the 1970s-1980s estimating costs of various trade policies. The document outlines developments in modeling imperfect competition and computable general equilibrium modeling of trade policies in the 1980s-1990s. It concludes with discussing regional trade agreements and poverty assessments driving demand for trade policy evaluations.
The document discusses the trade war between the US and China. It provides background on how the conflict began with the US imposing tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods and China retaliating with tariffs on $110 billion of US goods. A key reason for tensions is the large US trade deficit with China. The trade war is negatively impacting both economies and global markets. Several rounds of escalating tariffs are outlined from 2018 to 2019.
The document discusses the trade tensions between the US and other countries regarding steel and aluminum tariffs. It provides background on President Trump's views on restarting the US steel industry and his belief that other countries were taking advantage of the US in trade. It also summarizes the reactions of the US, China, EU, and other countries to the tariffs. The EU and others threatened retaliation while China said it did not want a trade war but was not afraid of one. The document also discusses the potential impacts on domestic US industries and jobs as well as other countries' economies and strategies for responding to the trade tensions.
Canada's trade relationship with the US today | Hamilton Steel Summit Keynote...Gowling WLG
On Sept. 7, 2018, Gowling WLG and the City of Hamilton hosted a public summit at Hamilton's City Hall exploring the key challenges facing Hamilton's steel industry - with an emphasis on current obstacles posed by new U.S. tariffs.
Distinguished policy makers, prominent academics, think tank experts, and practitioners from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the ASEAN +3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADB/ADBI) and the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) convened a two day event in Jakarta to discuss issues at the fore of recent economic development in Asia. The 7th OECD-AMRO-ADB/ADBI-ERIA Asian Regional Roundtable on Macroeconomic and Structural Policies, a T20 Japan Associated Event, took place from 18-19 June 2019 at ERIA’s offices. Dr Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, Senior Advisor to the Minister of National Development Planning for Economic Synergy and Financing, looked at what the region should do to respond to an unending trade war, noting that the ‘trade war’ is actually multiple trade wars.
China has experienced significant economic growth and development in recent decades, transitioning to a more market-oriented economy that is more globally connected. It has the world's second largest economy and is a major exporter and importer, with its top exports including machinery, electronics, and manufactured goods. China has the largest population and labor force in the world, though unemployment and wages remain relatively low compared to developed nations. The economy is still dominated by state-owned enterprises, though private sector growth has increased. Environmental issues and workplace safety also remain concerns due to rapid industrialization.
Pdf. trade war presentation for magnetics conferenceMichael Miller
I have been asked to upload the presentation I recently gave at the 2019 Magnetics Conference in Orlando, Florida. Well here it is. Stay tuned for more updates on all topics I presented.
Government Policy and International Trade Chapter 7 219Itroutmanboris
Government Policy and International Trade Chapter 7 219
In the 15 years up to 2015, China increased its steel
production fivefold as it forged the steel products
demanded by its huge boom in construction and
infrastructure spending. By 2015, the country produced
800 million tons of steel a year, half of the world’s
annual output. However, in 2015 the bottom fell out of
the Chinese domestic market for steel. The economy
slowed down, and the government shifted its priorities
away from massive infrastructure investments and to-
ward boosting consumer spending. By the end of 2015,
Chinese steelmakers were estimated to be producing
300 million more tons of steel a year than required for
domestic consumption.
With prices for steel slumping, China’s largest 101
steel firms lost more than $12 billion in 2015, roughly
twice what they made in profits during 2014. Not sur-
prisingly, the Chinese are seeking to export this un-
wanted product, even if it is at a loss. China exported
more than 100 million tons of steel for the first time in
2015, making its steel exports alone larger than the pro-
duction of any other country in the world except for
Japan. The prices for Chinese steel products appear to
be at least 10 percent lower outside of China than within
the country.
Those low-priced exports are having a devastating im-
pact on steelmakers around the globe. American produc-
ers have responded by clamoring for action from the U.S.
Commerce Department to stop what they perceive to be
the illegal dumping of steel products below the costs of
production. Moreover, they have argued that cheap steel
from China has also persuaded producers in India, Italy,
South Korea, and Taiwan to dump their excess produc-
tion on the world market, further harming U.S. produc-
ers. In November 2015, the Commerce Department ruled
that all of these countries except Taiwan were dumping
steel and placed duties as high as 236 percent on some
imports of foreign steel. In late December, the Commerce
Department ruled that China was also selling corrosion-
resistant steel at unfairly low prices and placed an addi-
tional 256 percent tariff on such imports. This erected a
huge barrier to certain Chinese steel imports into the
United States.
The European Union also took similar steps. The
United Kingdom has been particularly hard hit by
Chinese imports. Chinese imports now take 45 percent of
the UK market for steel rebar, up from nothing in 2010.
Overall, steel imports from China doubled between 2014
and 2015. The United Kingdom lost some 4,000 steelmaking
jobs in the second half of 2015 as the Chinese grabbed
market share. Elsewhere in Europe, the Luxembourg-
based steel giant ArcelorMittal blamed dumping by Chinese
firms for a $8 billion loss in 2015.
In response, in January 2016, the EU placed a
13 percent tariff on imports of Chinese steel. EU steel-
makers called this totally inadequate, particularly given
the much large tariff ...
Trade policy today and the impact on sourcingJason Prescott
The United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) President Julie Hughes will provide an update on the key issues and developments in the U.S. trade policy for 2019 and beyond. Due to the tariffs and retail disruptions, it can be difficult for companies to stay ahead in these uncertain times. Join the United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) President Julia Hughes for an update on the latest actions for new tariffs and trade retaliation affecting U.S. fashion brands and retailers. Hear the latest on the current Administration’s trade policy and what’s on the horizon from a DC insider, including strategies for fashion brands, retailers, and manufacturers to mitigate the impact on your business.
The document summarizes the real causes of the recent economic crisis and ongoing economic turmoil. It argues that the shift in global economic power away from advanced countries like the US towards developing countries like China is a key underlying cause. It also points to the long-term business cycle as economies move from periods of growth to stagnation. Finally, it asserts that misguided policies and data manipulation in advanced countries have exacerbated the problems.
Afton Chemical & Scott Miller: The Renaissance in U.S. ManufacturingAfton Chemical
U.S. Manufacturing has faced decline over the past 20+ years, yet is still central to American economic performance in the future
Technological changes have been a driving force for disruption. Now, however, technology is creating avenues for U.S. manufacturers to boost their productivity, agility, and global competitiveness
Capturing these opportunities will require new capabilities from firms as well as coherent government policies that focus on the future instead of trying to re-create the past
Presidential Authority For International TradeMIQ Logistics
Do you know the President’s authority as it related to international trade and commerce? This presentation provides insight into the President’s authority according to language in the Constitution, Executive Authority per specific Trade Acts, as well as historical precedents. The presentation also reviews the current status of NAFTA and the potential impact to Regional Value Content if the trade agreement is renegotiated.
The document discusses international management concepts including defining international management as applying management concepts across borders and adapting to different environments. It then covers topics like globalization trends, the political, legal and technological environments faced by multinational corporations, ethics and corporate social responsibility challenges, and emerging issues around civil society and non-governmental organizations.
The document discusses international management topics such as defining international management and multinational corporations. It then covers trends in globalization, the economic performance of developing countries, and issues relating to the political, legal, technological, and ethical environment that international managers must navigate. Tables and figures are presented on topics like the largest global companies, foreign direct investment flows, and levels of corruption in different countries.
Growing With Bubbles
The document analyzes previous economic crises and current economic vulnerabilities. It discusses:
1) Previous housing and consumption bubbles in the US that spread globally. Emerging markets like China benefited from capital inflows and adopted export-led growth models.
2) China's massive post-2008 stimulus and infrastructure spending fueled overcapacity issues. China accumulated large debts that now pose risks.
3) Falling commodity prices, including a 70% drop in oil prices since 2014, threaten commodity-exporting countries and regions while reducing inflation globally.
Quais os reflexos dessa crescente rivalidade estratégia sobre as economias chinesa e mundial?
ARTHUR R. KROEBER
Chefe de pesquisa na Gavekal (Hong Kong) e fundador da Gavekal Dragonomics. Atuou como jornalista financeiro e econômico na China e no Sul da Ásia. É membro do Comitê Nacional de Relações EUA-China e Senior Fellow não-residente do Brookings-Tsinghua Center. Autor do “China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know”(2016), é editor do China Economic Quarterly e professor adjunto da Escola de Relações Internacionais e Públicas da Universidade de Columbia.
This document discusses the shift toward embracing industrial policy by countries in the global North. It notes the long history of development failure and income gaps persisting in regions outside of Northeast Asia, which successfully adopted industrial policy. While industrial policy was discouraged for developing countries, major powers like the US and UK are now pursuing ambitious industrial policies themselves to compete with China's rise and address climate change and inequality issues. This represents a major change from the previous dominance of "neoliberal" ideas opposing government intervention in markets. Geopolitical tensions, especially with China, are now shaping economic policies in the global North.
This document discusses protectionism between developed and developing countries. It notes that while developed countries have lowered tariffs, they increasingly rely on non-tariff barriers like technical standards to protect strategic industries and jobs. Developing countries face pressure to open their markets more than developed countries. The document argues that current international trade rules are not equally applied and developed countries have more autonomy in decision making compared to developing nations.
Story of north american free trade agreement nafta its success and failureIAEME Publication
This document summarizes a research article that evaluates the success and failures of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) since its implementation in 1994. Some key points:
- NAFTA created the world's largest free trade area and led to significant economic growth in all three member countries from 1993-2003 and increased trade volumes. However, it also contributed to growing US trade deficits with Mexico and Canada and the loss of approximately 1 million American jobs.
- The agreement succeeded in increasing exports, investment, and economic integration between the US, Canada, and Mexico. However, it failed to meet promises to create new jobs in the US and contributed to growing income inequality and worker displacement in Mexico.
-
Softwood Lumber dispute – Canada and United States - June 2017paul young cpa, cga
This presentation looks at softwood lumber including the issues facing forestry in Canada. USA has imposed duties from 4 to 24% on softwood imports coming from Canada into the USA.
USA view for the past 20+ years is that Canada's forestry sector is subsidised as such Canadian Forestry Sector has unfair advantage over its USA Forestry Sector.
The United States Turns Inward: Thoughts on US Trade Policy and US-Asian Trade Relations by Keith Maskus
http://iems.ust.hk/events/insights/maskus-united-states-turns-inward-thoughts-on-us-trade-policy-and-us-asian-trade-relations
US_Canada_Trade | Opportunities Through NAFTA and BeyondNishantNag5
This document discusses opportunities for increased U.S.-Canada trade through NAFTA and beyond. It provides statistics showing that Canada is the largest trading partner and export market for the U.S., that two-way trade between the U.S. and NAFTA partners has greatly increased since 1993, and that NAFTA exports from states like Minnesota have also significantly risen. It also outlines some successes of NAFTA in reducing trade barriers and stimulating growth, and introduces the Security and Prosperity Partnership agreement aimed at further strengthening North American economic and security cooperation.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
Distinguished policy makers, prominent academics, think tank experts, and practitioners from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the ASEAN +3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADB/ADBI) and the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) convened a two day event in Jakarta to discuss issues at the fore of recent economic development in Asia. The 7th OECD-AMRO-ADB/ADBI-ERIA Asian Regional Roundtable on Macroeconomic and Structural Policies, a T20 Japan Associated Event, took place from 18-19 June 2019 at ERIA’s offices. Dr Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, Senior Advisor to the Minister of National Development Planning for Economic Synergy and Financing, looked at what the region should do to respond to an unending trade war, noting that the ‘trade war’ is actually multiple trade wars.
China has experienced significant economic growth and development in recent decades, transitioning to a more market-oriented economy that is more globally connected. It has the world's second largest economy and is a major exporter and importer, with its top exports including machinery, electronics, and manufactured goods. China has the largest population and labor force in the world, though unemployment and wages remain relatively low compared to developed nations. The economy is still dominated by state-owned enterprises, though private sector growth has increased. Environmental issues and workplace safety also remain concerns due to rapid industrialization.
Pdf. trade war presentation for magnetics conferenceMichael Miller
I have been asked to upload the presentation I recently gave at the 2019 Magnetics Conference in Orlando, Florida. Well here it is. Stay tuned for more updates on all topics I presented.
Government Policy and International Trade Chapter 7 219Itroutmanboris
Government Policy and International Trade Chapter 7 219
In the 15 years up to 2015, China increased its steel
production fivefold as it forged the steel products
demanded by its huge boom in construction and
infrastructure spending. By 2015, the country produced
800 million tons of steel a year, half of the world’s
annual output. However, in 2015 the bottom fell out of
the Chinese domestic market for steel. The economy
slowed down, and the government shifted its priorities
away from massive infrastructure investments and to-
ward boosting consumer spending. By the end of 2015,
Chinese steelmakers were estimated to be producing
300 million more tons of steel a year than required for
domestic consumption.
With prices for steel slumping, China’s largest 101
steel firms lost more than $12 billion in 2015, roughly
twice what they made in profits during 2014. Not sur-
prisingly, the Chinese are seeking to export this un-
wanted product, even if it is at a loss. China exported
more than 100 million tons of steel for the first time in
2015, making its steel exports alone larger than the pro-
duction of any other country in the world except for
Japan. The prices for Chinese steel products appear to
be at least 10 percent lower outside of China than within
the country.
Those low-priced exports are having a devastating im-
pact on steelmakers around the globe. American produc-
ers have responded by clamoring for action from the U.S.
Commerce Department to stop what they perceive to be
the illegal dumping of steel products below the costs of
production. Moreover, they have argued that cheap steel
from China has also persuaded producers in India, Italy,
South Korea, and Taiwan to dump their excess produc-
tion on the world market, further harming U.S. produc-
ers. In November 2015, the Commerce Department ruled
that all of these countries except Taiwan were dumping
steel and placed duties as high as 236 percent on some
imports of foreign steel. In late December, the Commerce
Department ruled that China was also selling corrosion-
resistant steel at unfairly low prices and placed an addi-
tional 256 percent tariff on such imports. This erected a
huge barrier to certain Chinese steel imports into the
United States.
The European Union also took similar steps. The
United Kingdom has been particularly hard hit by
Chinese imports. Chinese imports now take 45 percent of
the UK market for steel rebar, up from nothing in 2010.
Overall, steel imports from China doubled between 2014
and 2015. The United Kingdom lost some 4,000 steelmaking
jobs in the second half of 2015 as the Chinese grabbed
market share. Elsewhere in Europe, the Luxembourg-
based steel giant ArcelorMittal blamed dumping by Chinese
firms for a $8 billion loss in 2015.
In response, in January 2016, the EU placed a
13 percent tariff on imports of Chinese steel. EU steel-
makers called this totally inadequate, particularly given
the much large tariff ...
Trade policy today and the impact on sourcingJason Prescott
The United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) President Julie Hughes will provide an update on the key issues and developments in the U.S. trade policy for 2019 and beyond. Due to the tariffs and retail disruptions, it can be difficult for companies to stay ahead in these uncertain times. Join the United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) President Julia Hughes for an update on the latest actions for new tariffs and trade retaliation affecting U.S. fashion brands and retailers. Hear the latest on the current Administration’s trade policy and what’s on the horizon from a DC insider, including strategies for fashion brands, retailers, and manufacturers to mitigate the impact on your business.
The document summarizes the real causes of the recent economic crisis and ongoing economic turmoil. It argues that the shift in global economic power away from advanced countries like the US towards developing countries like China is a key underlying cause. It also points to the long-term business cycle as economies move from periods of growth to stagnation. Finally, it asserts that misguided policies and data manipulation in advanced countries have exacerbated the problems.
Afton Chemical & Scott Miller: The Renaissance in U.S. ManufacturingAfton Chemical
U.S. Manufacturing has faced decline over the past 20+ years, yet is still central to American economic performance in the future
Technological changes have been a driving force for disruption. Now, however, technology is creating avenues for U.S. manufacturers to boost their productivity, agility, and global competitiveness
Capturing these opportunities will require new capabilities from firms as well as coherent government policies that focus on the future instead of trying to re-create the past
Presidential Authority For International TradeMIQ Logistics
Do you know the President’s authority as it related to international trade and commerce? This presentation provides insight into the President’s authority according to language in the Constitution, Executive Authority per specific Trade Acts, as well as historical precedents. The presentation also reviews the current status of NAFTA and the potential impact to Regional Value Content if the trade agreement is renegotiated.
The document discusses international management concepts including defining international management as applying management concepts across borders and adapting to different environments. It then covers topics like globalization trends, the political, legal and technological environments faced by multinational corporations, ethics and corporate social responsibility challenges, and emerging issues around civil society and non-governmental organizations.
The document discusses international management topics such as defining international management and multinational corporations. It then covers trends in globalization, the economic performance of developing countries, and issues relating to the political, legal, technological, and ethical environment that international managers must navigate. Tables and figures are presented on topics like the largest global companies, foreign direct investment flows, and levels of corruption in different countries.
Growing With Bubbles
The document analyzes previous economic crises and current economic vulnerabilities. It discusses:
1) Previous housing and consumption bubbles in the US that spread globally. Emerging markets like China benefited from capital inflows and adopted export-led growth models.
2) China's massive post-2008 stimulus and infrastructure spending fueled overcapacity issues. China accumulated large debts that now pose risks.
3) Falling commodity prices, including a 70% drop in oil prices since 2014, threaten commodity-exporting countries and regions while reducing inflation globally.
Quais os reflexos dessa crescente rivalidade estratégia sobre as economias chinesa e mundial?
ARTHUR R. KROEBER
Chefe de pesquisa na Gavekal (Hong Kong) e fundador da Gavekal Dragonomics. Atuou como jornalista financeiro e econômico na China e no Sul da Ásia. É membro do Comitê Nacional de Relações EUA-China e Senior Fellow não-residente do Brookings-Tsinghua Center. Autor do “China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know”(2016), é editor do China Economic Quarterly e professor adjunto da Escola de Relações Internacionais e Públicas da Universidade de Columbia.
This document discusses the shift toward embracing industrial policy by countries in the global North. It notes the long history of development failure and income gaps persisting in regions outside of Northeast Asia, which successfully adopted industrial policy. While industrial policy was discouraged for developing countries, major powers like the US and UK are now pursuing ambitious industrial policies themselves to compete with China's rise and address climate change and inequality issues. This represents a major change from the previous dominance of "neoliberal" ideas opposing government intervention in markets. Geopolitical tensions, especially with China, are now shaping economic policies in the global North.
This document discusses protectionism between developed and developing countries. It notes that while developed countries have lowered tariffs, they increasingly rely on non-tariff barriers like technical standards to protect strategic industries and jobs. Developing countries face pressure to open their markets more than developed countries. The document argues that current international trade rules are not equally applied and developed countries have more autonomy in decision making compared to developing nations.
Story of north american free trade agreement nafta its success and failureIAEME Publication
This document summarizes a research article that evaluates the success and failures of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) since its implementation in 1994. Some key points:
- NAFTA created the world's largest free trade area and led to significant economic growth in all three member countries from 1993-2003 and increased trade volumes. However, it also contributed to growing US trade deficits with Mexico and Canada and the loss of approximately 1 million American jobs.
- The agreement succeeded in increasing exports, investment, and economic integration between the US, Canada, and Mexico. However, it failed to meet promises to create new jobs in the US and contributed to growing income inequality and worker displacement in Mexico.
-
Softwood Lumber dispute – Canada and United States - June 2017paul young cpa, cga
This presentation looks at softwood lumber including the issues facing forestry in Canada. USA has imposed duties from 4 to 24% on softwood imports coming from Canada into the USA.
USA view for the past 20+ years is that Canada's forestry sector is subsidised as such Canadian Forestry Sector has unfair advantage over its USA Forestry Sector.
The United States Turns Inward: Thoughts on US Trade Policy and US-Asian Trade Relations by Keith Maskus
http://iems.ust.hk/events/insights/maskus-united-states-turns-inward-thoughts-on-us-trade-policy-and-us-asian-trade-relations
US_Canada_Trade | Opportunities Through NAFTA and BeyondNishantNag5
This document discusses opportunities for increased U.S.-Canada trade through NAFTA and beyond. It provides statistics showing that Canada is the largest trading partner and export market for the U.S., that two-way trade between the U.S. and NAFTA partners has greatly increased since 1993, and that NAFTA exports from states like Minnesota have also significantly risen. It also outlines some successes of NAFTA in reducing trade barriers and stimulating growth, and introduces the Security and Prosperity Partnership agreement aimed at further strengthening North American economic and security cooperation.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
Learn in-depth about Dogecoin's trajectory and stay informed with 36crypto's essential and up-to-date information about the crypto space.
Our presentation delves into Dogecoin's potential future, exploring whether it's destined to skyrocket to the moon or face a downward spiral. In addition, it highlights invaluable insights. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your crypto understanding!
https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
New Visa Rules for Tourists and Students in Thailand | Amit Kakkar Easy VisaAmit Kakkar
Discover essential details about Thailand's recent visa policy changes, tailored for tourists and students. Amit Kakkar Easy Visa provides a comprehensive overview of new requirements, application processes, and tips to ensure a smooth transition for all travelers.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck mari...Donc Test
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck mari...
tradewars.pptx
1. U.S. Trade and Trade Wars
<Author, Ph.D.>
<Affiliation>
<Audience>
April 30, 2019
2. National Economic Education Delegation
• Vision
- One day, the public discussion of policy issues will be grounded in an accurate
perception of the underlying economic principles and data.
• Mission
- NEED unites the skills and knowledge of a
vast network of professional economists to promote understanding of the
economics of policy issues in the United States.
• NEED Presentations
- Are nonpartisan and intended to reflect the consensus of the economics
profession.
2
3. Who Are We?
• Honorary Board: 47 members
- 2 Fed Chairs: Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke
- 6 Chairs Council of Economic Advisers
o Furman (D), Rosen (R), Bernanke (R), Yellen (D), Tyson (D), Goolsbee (D)
- 3 Nobel Prize Winners
o Akerlof, Smith, Maskin
• Delegates: 500+ members
- At all levels of academia and some in government service
- All have a Ph.D. in economics
- Crowdsource slide decks
- Give presentations
• Global Partners: 45 Ph.D. Economists
- Aid in slide deck development
3
5. Credits and Disclaimer
• This slide deck was authored by:
- Alan Deardorff, University of Michigan
- Kadee Russ, University of California-Davis
• This slide deck was reviewed by:
- Jon Haveman, NEED
• Disclaimer
- NEED presentations are designed to be nonpartisan.
- It is, however, inevitable that the presenter will be asked for and will provide
their own views.
- Such views are those of the presenter and not necessarily those of the
National Economic Education Delegation (NEED).
5
6. A slowdown in global trade since 2008
6
IMF 2016 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, Figure 2.1
7. Outline
• U.S. Trade
• President Trump’s 2018 Trade Actions
- Trade War
o Solar Panels and Washing Machines
o Steel and Aluminum
o Cars (threat)
o China
- Free Trade Agreements
o Korea-US Trade Agreement Amended
o NAFTA → USMCA
7
12. Top US Trade Partners (Goods, 2016)
• Top 10 US export destinations • Top 10 US import sources
12
CHN, 21.0%
MEX, 14.0%
CAN, 13.0%
JPN, 6.1%
GER, 5.4%
KOR, 3.3%
UK, 2.5%
IND, 2.2% ITA, 2.1% VNM, 2.0%
CAN, 16.0%
MEX, 14.0%
CHN, 9.2%
JPN, 4.9%
GER, 4.6%
UK, 3.5%
KOR, 3.2%
FRA, 2.9%
NED, 2.5% BEL, 2.4%
13. U.S. trade
• $2.3 Trillion in exports and $2.9
Trillion in imports of goods and
services in 2017, in total 27% of GDP
• Overall, a nearly $570 Billion trade
deficit (3% of GDP)
• Goods trade deficit over $800 Billion
• Services trade surplus about $250
Billion
15. Trade imbalances
• Driven by macroeconomic factors
- Trade deficits happen when a
country’s firms, households, and
government together consume more
than the country produces.
- Trade deficits can happen when a
country’s economy starts to expand
faster than its trading partners
• Example: U.S.-S.K. trade deficit
roughly tracks the S.K.-U.S. real
GDP growth differential
16. Trade agreements may re-route trade
• Many observers were concerned
that the U.S. bilateral trade deficit
with South Korea increased more
than $10 billion annually after the
Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement
went into force in 2012.
• Recent research shows that
KORUS just shifted about $13
billion of U.S. imports from other
countries to South Korean
suppliers (Russ and Swenson).
• About half of the re-routed trade
was from China.
17. U.S. now using some established and some
new approaches to trade policy
Established
• Barriers against import surges
and imports of unfairly traded
products
• Bilateral and multilateral trade
agreements to increase market
access for U.S. exports
• Leadership in GATT/WTO
• Non-discrimination
New
• Renegotiations of and
withdrawal from existing trade
agreements
• Weakening of WTO trade
dispute settlement mechanism
• “Reciprocity”
18. Recent applications of established barriers against
import surges and imports of unfairly traded products
18
• Trade Act of 1974
- Section 201 (surges): solar cells, washing machines
- Section 301 (non-market activity): China forced technology transfer
• Trade Expansion Act of 1962
- Section 232 (national security): steel and aluminum
• Trade Act of 1930
- Anti-dumping and countervailing duties (cover about 80% of steel from China)
19. 19
“What will be the effect of tariffs on the U.S.
economy, workers, and households?”
• Consumer impact
• Higher costs for US businesses
that rely on imported inputs
may put these firms and their
workers at risk
• Risk of recession-- investment is
a particularly import-intensive
type of demand
• Retaliatory tariffs will put firms
and jobs in U.S. export
industries at risk
20. 20
“What will be the effect of tariffs on the U.S.
economy, workers, and households?”
• Consumer impact
• Higher costs for US businesses
that rely on imported inputs
may put these firms and their
workers at risk
• Risk of recession-- investment is
a particularly import-intensive
type of demand
• Retaliatory tariffs will put firms
and jobs in U.S. export
industries at risk
• “Won’t tariffs start an
investment and output boom,
since companies that serve the
U.S. market will want to
produce in the U.S.?”
• “Won’t tariffs bring back jobs?”
• “Won’t tariffs help raise wages
for U.S. workers and reduce
inequality?”
21. 21
Recent Research Suggests Trade Disrupts Job
Markets
• China Shock 1991-2011: ≈ 2 million jobs displaced in import-
competing industries (Acemoglu, Autor, Dorn, Hanson, Price)
• Impact on some communities absolutely devastating.
- Concentrated job losses, home prices fell, cuts to local services, reduced
marriage and fertility.
• Research suggests that nationally, jobs expanded in other
industries by about the same number, or possibly more.
- Cheaper imported inputs allow import-using sectors to grow faster.
- Feenstra, Ma and Xu; Wang, Wei, Yu, and Zhu
23. 23
Trump’s 2018 Trade Actions
• Most were tariffs on imports
- Taxes levied by US on imports from others
- Taxes levied by others (in retaliation) on US exports
• Normal effects of tariffs
- Raise prices for importers
- Lower prices for exporters
- Cause substitution
o To other products
o To other countries (if not on all)
Two recent studies of the 2018 Trade War
found that exporter prices did not fall.
24. 24
Trump’s 2018 Trade Actions
These slides will list only actions actually
taken.
Most had plans and threats announced in
the days and weeks beforehand.
25. 25
Trump’s 2018 Trade Actions
•Jan 22, 2018: Safeguard tariffs
- 30% on solar panels
- 50% on washing machines
26. Safeguards
• WTO permits tariffs on imports that cause serious
injury
• Trump used the following:
- 30% on solar panels
- 50% on washing machines
(both declining over 3 or 4 years)
• Both were on exports of all countries
- Reason: previous China-only tariffs had been evaded by
moving production elsewhere
26
28. Tariffs on Solar Panels
•Why?
-Increased imports from China had driven
US companies out
-Anti-dumping duties had failed to help, as
companies moved production to other
non-China and non-US locations
28
29. Tariffs on Solar Panels
•Who benefits?
-Who requested
oSuniva, Chinese owned, manufactures in
Georgia and in Saginaw, MI
oSolarWorld, was German owned but now
French,
-14 US manufacturers, including
oCBS Solar, Copemish, MI
29
31. Tariffs on Solar Panels
•Who is hurt?
-Consumers
-Solar panel installers, led by Solar Energy
Industry Association
oThey estimate that the 30% tariff “would
cause the loss of 23,000 in 2018, as well as
the delay or cancellation of billions of dollars
of investments in solar energy.”
31
33. Tariffs on Washing Machines
•Why?
- From 2012 to 2016, imports increased
dramatically from two Korean firms LG and
Sumsung
- Anti-dumping duties failed to stop this, as
production moved to Thailand and Vietnam
33
34. Tariffs on Washing Machines
•Who benefits?
- Whirlpool, Benton Harbor, MI, which requested
the tariffs
oWhirlpool brands include Amana, Maytag, & more
- Other US manufacturers, such as GE, Electrolux
and Frigidaire (Swedish), Equator, Speed Queen
- In 2017, Samsung and LG announced plans to
build factories in South Carolina and Tennessee
34
35. Tariffs on Washing Machines
• Who is hurt?
- Consumers
o Washers (and dryers!) both increased in price by about 12%
(per Flaaen et al. 2019)
• Note that the tariff was levied on washers only, not dryers]
• ”consumers bore between 125 percent and 225 percent of the
costs” (NYT 4/21/19)
o US appliance prices (I don’t have graph for washing
machines alone) rose 8.1% over the 12 months to Nov 2018
35
36. Tariffs on Washing Machines
36
Source: Amiti, Redding, and Weinstein, “The Impact of the 2018 Trade War
on U.S. Prices and Welfare,” CEPR Discussion Paper DP13564, March 1, 2019.
Tariff
37. 37
Trump’s 2018 Trade Actions
•Jan 22, 2018: Safeguard tariffs
•Mar 1, 2018: Announces “national-
security” tariffs on steel and aluminum
- 25% on steel, 10% on aluminum
- Announced for all countries
o Some delayed (EU, Canada Mexico)
o Others later exempted (S. Korea)
38. National Security
•Trump used Section 232 of US trade law to levy
tariffs on imports of metals, based on national
security
- “Economic security is national security”
• (Trump Dec 18, 2017)
- 25% on steel, 10% on aluminum
- Mar 23: Tariffs start with some exemptions
- Mar 28: Korea exemption permanent in return for
a quota cutting its exports to ~80% of 2017
- Jun 1: Tariffs extended to EU, Canada, Mexico
38
40. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
•Responses to metals tariffs
-Retaliation by China, EU, Canada, & others
-WTO disputes
oMay-Aug: Complaints filed AGAINST
U.S.
oJuly: Complaints filed BY U.S.
40
41. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
•Who benefits?
-US producers of steel and aluminum
oSteel: AISI lists 12 producers in Michigan
oAluminum: Thomas lists 76 suppliers in
Michigan
41
42. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
•Who is hurt?
-US users of steel and aluminum pay
higher prices
oMost obviously the car companies but
many others
42
48. 48
Trump’s Trade Actions
•Jan 22, 2018: Safeguard tariffs
•Mar 1, 2018: Announces tariffs on steel
and aluminum
•May 23, 2018: Initiates Commerce Dept
investigation of car and car part imports
49. National Security
•Cars
- Trump initiated another national security
investigation: on imported cars
- Trump said he’s considering a 25% tariff on
cars and car parts
- This would be bigger than on metals:
oTariffs on $48 billion of steel and aluminum
imports
oTariffs on $351 billion of car and car part imports
(per NYT)
49
51. Tariff on Cars and Car Parts
•Who would benefit?
- US car companies?
oMost (e.g., GM) are opposed
oI can’t find objection from Ford, but others list
Ford among those who object
- US auto workers?
oUAW has spoken in favor of “target measures”
with with understanding that broad tariffs or
quotas “could cause harm” including “mass lay-
offs for American workers.”
51
52. Tariff on Cars and Car Parts
•Who would be hurt?
-Most car companies, including GM
-US car buyers
52
53. Estimated Effects on Car Sales and Prices of 25% Tariff
Sales
impact
(units)
Average Price Increases ($/unit)
on vehicles sold in US
Tariff on: All
US-
assembled
Imported
All imports –2.0 M $4,400 $2,270 $6,875
Canada & Mexico exempted –1.2 M 2,450 1,135 3,980
53
Source: Center for Automotive Research
Tariff on Cars and Car Parts
54. Estimated Effects on Employment & GDP of
25% Tariff
Tariff on:
Total US
Employment US GDP
All imports –714.7 K –$59.2 B
Canada & Mexico exempted –197.2 K –15.3B
54
Tariff on Cars and Car Parts
Source: Center for Automotive Research
55. Estimated Effects of a 25% Tariff
on Revenue & Employment in
New Car Dealerships
Tariff on:
Dealership
Revenues
Dealership
Employment
Total Per D’ship Total Per D’ship
All imports –66.5 B –4.0 M –117.5 K –7
C & M exempted –39.1 B –2.3 M –50.5 K –4
55
Tariff on Cars and Car Parts
Source: Center for Automotive Research
56. 56
Tariff on Cars and Car Parts
•Where we stand:
- Commerce Dept. sent report to Trump Feb 17
oNot public, but said to include several options
for tariffs
oTrump has 90 days to decide
- FT Jan 22: “president was leaning towards slapping
tariffs on automotive imports, in the hope of
forcing Brussels to further open the EU market to
American farm products.”
57. 57
Trump’s Trade Actions
•Mar 1, 2018: Announces tariffs on steel and
aluminum
•May 23, 2018: Initiates Commerce Dept
investigation of car and car part imports
•Jul 6, 2018: First tariffs on China, $34 billion
- On $34 billion of China exports to US
- Based on unfair trade practices in intellectual
property (IP)
59. Three Rounds of Tariff Hikes in 2018
59
Source: Congressional Research Service, Enforcing U.S. Trade Laws: Section 301 and China, April 8, 2019
60. Average U.S. and China Tariffs: Before and After
60
Source: Chad P. Bown, 2019, The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict After 40 Years of Special Protection (PIIE Working Paper 19-7
63. 63
Trump’s Trade Actions
•Mar 1, 2018: Announces tariffs on steel and
aluminum
•May 23, 2018: Initiates Commerce Dept
investigation of car and car part imports
•Jul 6, 2018: First tariffs on China, $34 billion
- On $34 billion of China exports to US
- Based on unfair trade practices in intellectual
property (IP)
64. China
• Concerns about China’s IP practices pre-existed Trump
- Theft of technology secrets
- Forcing investors in China into joint ventures and sharing technology
• Prior to Trump, complaints had been voiced by US and EU, but
nothing had been done
• US initiated investigation under Section 301 of US trade law
(unfair trade practices)
- Aug 18, 2017: Investigation initiated
- Mar 22, 2018: Report finds unfair trade and recommends tariffs
• Since then, Trump has announced and then implemented
multiple rounds of tariffs
64
65. 65
Trump’s Trade Actions
•Mar 1, 2018: Announces tariffs on steel and
aluminum
•May 23, 2018: Initiates Commerce Dept
investigation of car and car part imports
•Jul 6, 2018: First tariffs on China , $34 billion
•Aug 23, 2018: Second tariffs on China, $16
billion
•Sep 24, 2018: Third tariffs on China, $200
billion
66. China
•This is a “Trade War”: Tariffs and retaliation
- US tariffs on $34 billion Jul 6 were matched that
day by China tariffs on $34 billion of US exports
- US tariffs on $16 billion Aug 23 were matched that
day by China tariffs on $16 billion of US exports
- US tariffs on $200 billion Sep 24 were less-than-
matched by China on $60 billion of US exports
- Trump said he’d use tariffs on still more ($267
billion), approaching all of China’s exports to US
oDid not do that; delayed for China-US trade talks
66
67. China
•What’s the point?
- To get China to stop its IP practices?
- To reduce the US bilateral trade deficit with
China?
- To stop China’s rise as an economy and as a
world power?
•Who will “win”?
- Nobody! Everybody loses from tariffs
- Trump says it’s “easy to win” because he
measures success from trade deficit
67
70. 70
Makers of Top-20 US-Made Models
Sold in China in 2017
Models Cars
Ford/Lincoln 5 44,487
BMW 4 106,971
Mercedes-Benz 4 72,187
Jeep 3 15,831
Tesla 2 14,779
Toyota 1 7,460
Chevrolet 1 977
Source: USA Today from LMC Automotive
71. 71
States Producing Top-20 US-Made Models
Sold in China in 2017
Models Cars
South Carolina (BMW) 4 106,971
Alabama (Mercedes) 4 72,187
Michigan (Jeep, Chevy, Ford, Lincoln) 4 21,873
Kentucky (Lincoln) 2 19,517
California (Tesla) 2 14,779
Illinois (Ford; Jeep) 2 14,603
Indiana (Toyota) 1 7,460
Ohio (Jeep) 1 5,302
Source: USA Today from LMC Automotive + Wikipedia
73. Trade War
73
•Effects of the 2018 Trade War
- US average tariffs rose, in 6 waves
- Prices of imports in US rose
- Quantity of imports fell
- Number of imported varieties fell
Source: Amiti, Redding, and Weinstein, “The Impact of the 2018 Trade War
on U.S. Prices and Welfare,” CEPR Discussion Paper DP13564, March 1, 2019.
78. Trade War
78
•Effects of the 2018 Trade War
- Effects varied across US
oUS tariffs hit Michigan, hard
oForeign tariffs did not hit Michigan hard
oReal wages fell most in states other than
Michigan
Source: Fajgelbaum, Goldberg, Kennedy, and Khandelwal,
“The Return to Protectionism,” March 3, 2019.
84. Trade War
84
•China-US Trade Talks, I
- Talks began in May 2018, in response to
Trump’s threat of tariffs
oChina promised to import more from US and
allow more foreign investment
oSaid to have “averted trade war”
oBut then talks broke off in early June
- Trade war with China Jul, Aug, Sep 2018
Talks
85. Trade War
85
•China-US Trade Talks II
- Oct 2018: US and China postured about
renewing trade talks
- Nov 1, 2018: New round of talks began with
phone call from Trump to Xi
- Dec 2, 2018: G20 Summit dinner agrees truce:
No more tariffs while talks continue
- Talks are still underway, but said to be
approaching a deal
Talks
86. Trade War
86
• China-US Trade Talks II: Calendar
- Nov 9: He & Mnuchin talk by phone
- Jan 7-9: Talks in Beijing
- Jan 30-31: Talks in DC
- Feb 11-15: Talks in Beijing
- Feb 21-24: Talks in DC
- Mar 28-29: Talks in Beijing
- Apr 3-5: Talks in DC
- Apr 23-?: Talks in Beijing
- May 8-?: Talks in DC
Source:
Talks
87. Trade War
87
- Nov 29, WSJ: U.S., China Exploring Deal to Ease Trade Tensions
- Dec 4, WSJ: Trump Names Lighthizer to Run U.S.-China Negotiations
- Dec 30, FT: China and US hail ‘positive progress’ on trade talks
- Jan 7, WP: Trade talks open in Beijing amid optimism about an end to
U.S.-China dispute
- Jan 9, FT: China and US strike upbeat tone after talks but offer few
details
- Jan 22, FT: US turns down China offer of preparatory trade talks
- Jan 24, FT: US commerce secretary Ross says US ‘miles’ from a trade
deal with China
- Jan 29, WSJ: Big Divides Remain as U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume
- Jan 31, FT: Donald Trump says US-China trade talks ‘going well’
- Feb 6, WSJ: Agriculture Execs Say U.S.-China Trade Deal Nearing
- Feb 13, WSJ: China, U.S. Seek Broad Outline of a Trade Pact This
Week
- Feb 15, FT: US-China trade talks end with little sign of progress
- Feb 16, WSJ: Chinese, U.S. Trade Negotiators Inch Toward a Broad
Agreement
- Feb 21, FT: A potential new snag in the US-China trade talks
- Feb 23, WSJ: China Trade Talks Extended as Trump Pushes
to Close the Deal
- Feb 28, WSJ: U.S. Drops Threat of 25% Tariffs on Chinese
Goods in Sign That Accord Is Near
- Mar 4, WSJ: U.S., China Close In on Trade Deal
- Mar 8, FT: Trump prepared to walk away from ‘bad’ China
trade deal
- Mar 8, NYT: Chinese Officials Becoming Wary of a Quick
Trade Deal
- Mar 18, NYT: Trade Fight With China Enters Overtime, With
Tariffs a Costly Sticking Point
- Mar 28, FT: US-China trade talks could stretch for ‘months’
— Kudlow
- Apr 3, FT: US and China draw closer to final trade
agreement
- Apr 4, FT: US and China push back timing of possible trade
deal
- Apr 14, NYT: Mnuchin Says China Trade Talks Are Nearing
Final Round
- Apr 26, NYT: Trump Says Xi Jinping of China Will Visit Soon,
Stirring Anticipation of a Completed Trade Deal
• China-US Trade Talks II: Headlines
Talks
88. Trade War
88
- Nov 29, WSJ: U.S., China Exploring Deal to Ease Trade Tensions
- Dec 4, WSJ: Trump Names Lighthizer to Run U.S.-China Negotiations
- Dec 30, FT: China and US hail ‘positive progress’ on trade talks
- Jan 7, WP: Trade talks open in Beijing amid optimism about an end to
U.S.-China dispute
- Jan 9, FT: China and US strike upbeat tone after talks but offer few
details
- Jan 22, FT: US turns down China offer of preparatory trade talks
- Jan 24, FT: US commerce secretary Ross says US ‘miles’ from a trade
deal with China
- Jan 29, WSJ: Big Divides Remain as U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume
- Jan 31, FT: Donald Trump says US-China trade talks ‘going well’
- Feb 6, WSJ: Agriculture Execs Say U.S.-China Trade Deal Nearing
- Feb 13, WSJ: China, U.S. Seek Broad Outline of a Trade Pact This
Week
- Feb 15, FT: US-China trade talks end with little sign of progress
- Feb 16, WSJ: Chinese, U.S. Trade Negotiators Inch Toward a Broad
Agreement
- Feb 21, FT: A potential new snag in the US-China trade talks
- Feb 23, WSJ: China Trade Talks Extended as Trump Pushes
to Close the Deal
- Feb 28, WSJ: U.S. Drops Threat of 25% Tariffs on Chinese
Goods in Sign That Accord Is Near
- Mar 4, WSJ: U.S., China Close In on Trade Deal
- Mar 8, FT: Trump prepared to walk away from ‘bad’ China
trade deal
- Mar 8, NYT: Chinese Officials Becoming Wary of a Quick
Trade Deal
- Mar 18, NYT: Trade Fight With China Enters Overtime, With
Tariffs a Costly Sticking Point
- Mar 28, FT: US-China trade talks could stretch for ‘months’
— Kudlow
- Apr 3, FT: US and China draw closer to final trade
agreement
- Apr 4, FT: US and China push back timing of possible trade
deal
- Apr 14, NYT: Mnuchin Says China Trade Talks Are Nearing
Final Round
- Apr 26, NYT: Trump Says Xi Jinping of China Will Visit Soon,
Stirring Anticipation of a Completed Trade Deal
• China-US Trade Talks II: Headlines
Talks
89. Trade War
Talks
89
- Nov 29, WSJ: U.S., China Exploring Deal to Ease Trade Tensions
- Dec 4, WSJ: Trump Names Lighthizer to Run U.S.-China Negotiations
- Dec 30, FT: China and US hail ‘positive progress’ on trade talks
- Jan 7, WP: Trade talks open in Beijing amid optimism about an end to
U.S.-China dispute
- Jan 9, FT: China and US strike upbeat tone after talks but offer few
details
- Jan 22, FT: US turns down China offer of preparatory trade talks
- Jan 24, FT: US commerce secretary Ross says US ‘miles’ from a trade
deal with China
- Jan 29, WSJ: Big Divides Remain as U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume
- Jan 31, FT: Donald Trump says US-China trade talks ‘going well’
- Feb 6, WSJ: Agriculture Execs Say U.S.-China Trade Deal Nearing
- Feb 13, WSJ: China, U.S. Seek Broad Outline of a Trade Pact This
Week
- Feb 15, FT: US-China trade talks end with little sign of progress
- Feb 16, WSJ: Chinese, U.S. Trade Negotiators Inch Toward a Broad
Agreement
- Feb 21, FT: A potential new snag in the US-China trade talks
- Feb 23, WSJ: China Trade Talks Extended as Trump Pushes
to Close the Deal
- Feb 28, WSJ: U.S. Drops Threat of 25% Tariffs on Chinese
Goods in Sign That Accord Is Near
- Mar 4, WSJ: U.S., China Close In on Trade Deal
- Mar 8, FT: Trump prepared to walk away from ‘bad’ China
trade deal
- Mar 8, NYT: Chinese Officials Becoming Wary of a Quick
Trade Deal
- Mar 18, NYT: Trade Fight With China Enters Overtime, With
Tariffs a Costly Sticking Point
- Mar 28, FT: US-China trade talks could stretch for ‘months’
— Kudlow
- Apr 3, FT: US and China draw closer to final trade
agreement
- Apr 4, FT: US and China push back timing of possible trade
deal
- Apr 14, NYT: Mnuchin Says China Trade Talks Are Nearing
Final Round
- Apr 26, NYT: Trump Says Xi Jinping of China Will Visit Soon,
Stirring Anticipation of a Completed Trade Deal
• China-US Trade Talks II: Headlines
Exploring deal
Trade talks
open
‘Miles’ from
a trade deal
Trade deal
nearing
Little sign
of progress
Accord is near
Talks could stretch
for ‘months’
Closer to
final trade
agreement
Anticipationof a completed trade deal
90. Trade War
90
• China-US Trade: Issues of Negotiation
- Government subsidies to state-owned companies
- Chinese purchases of U.S. farm and energy products and services
- China’s market-opening efforts in sectors such as financial
services and manufacturing
- Improving its protection of U.S. intellectual-property rights
- Pressure on U.S. companies to share technology
- Industrial policies that favor state-controlled companies
- Currency stability
- Regulatory relief for foreign companies in China
- How to enforce any agreements on the above
o Reimpose tariffs, or
o Leave them in place
Talks
91. Trade War
91
•What Might a China-US Trade Deal Include?
- US wants (per FT, 3/25/19):
oHuge Chinese purchases of US exports, to reduce
US trade deficit
oLiberalization of market access for US goods and
services
oReform of Chinese industrial policy, especially
“forced transfers” of IP
US permitted to use punitive tariffs if these are
violated, without China retaliating or
complaining to WTO
- China wants:
oRemoval of US tariffs
Talks
93. Trade War
93
•Latest News
- On Sunday May 4, Trump tweeted that he would
oRaise tariffs on Friday from 10% to 25% on the
$200 billion from last year
oImpose 25% tariffs on the rest of China exports if
China does not accept his demands
oReason: China backtracking on promise to reduce
subsidies
- China’s negotiators are coming to DC anyway
Talks
94. 94
Trump’s Trade Actions
•Jul 6, 2018: First tariffs on China , $34 billion
•Aug 23, 2018: Second tariffs on China, $16
billion
•Sep 24, 2018: Third tariffs on China, $200 billion
•Sep 24, 2018: Amended KORUS signed
- Raises Korea quota for US-certified cars
- Extends years of US 25% tariff on light trucks
96. Korea
•Increased quota for US cars that
oDo not meet Korean standards
oBut do meet US standards
- Quota doubles from 25,000 to 50,000 cars per
auto maker
- In fact, US companies have not usually reached
the 25,000 limit
96
97. Korea
•Trucks
- Original KORUS had US promise to remove
its 25% ”chicken tax” on light trucks from
Korea by 2019.
- This is now extended to 2041
- This seems important for US makers of
pickup trucks, including in Michigan
97
98. 98
Trump’s Trade Actions
• Aug 23, 2018: Second tariffs on China, $16 billion
• Sep 24, 2018: Third tariffs on China, $200 billion
• Sep 24, 2018: Amended KORUS signed
• Sep 30, 2018: USMCA agreed
- NAFTA renegotiation had completed previously with
Mexico
- Now Canada signed on, and name changed (by
Trump) to USMCA
- USMCA: U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement
100. NAFTA → USMCA
•NAFTA is
- Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
o Zero tariffs on goods traded by US, Canada, Mexico
o Only if they satisfy Rules of Origin (ROOs)
- Additional provisions regarding many things
o Services trade
o Foreign direct investment
o Intellectual property rights
o Dispute settlement
o Government procurement
100
101. NAFTA → USMCA
•USMCA will be (if approved)
- FTA with stricter ROOs
- Some changes in NAFTA’s additional provisions
- New rules for environment, labor, financial
services, digital trade
- Weakening of Canada’s dairy barriers
- Discouragement of trade with China
- Provision for renegotiation (sunset)
101
102. NAFTA → USMCA
•Most important for Michigan: Tighter
ROOs for cars and car parts
- North American content increased from 62.5% to
75%
o Intended to reduce inputs from outside N. America, likely
benefiting Mexico
- New requirement that 40-45% of content must be
from labor paid $16/hr or more (but does not rise
with inflation)
o Intended to reduce inputs from low-wage Mexico,
benefiting US and Canada
102
103. NAFTA → USMCA
•Effects of tighter ROOs
- If ROOs are
oSatisfied: Higher costs of production
oNot satisfied: Tariffs on traded inputs and final products
- Either way
oPrices rise
oDemand falls
oProducts become less competitive internationally
- Effects on demands for labor ambiguous throughout
103
104. NAFTA → USMCA
•Will USMCA be ratified?
- Needs ratification in all three countries
- In US, there are problems
o Democrats want changes
• Stronger enforcement of labor provisions
• Remove tariffs on steel and aluminum
o Approval requires a report from USITC, delayed by
government shutdown, but was issued Apr 18
- Trump threatens to issue six-month withdrawal
notice from NAFTA
104
105. NAFTA → USMCA
• USITC Report Main Findings
- Positive impact on US real GDP and employment
o Raise GDP by 0.35%
o Raise employment by 0.12 %
- Most significant effects from
o Reduced uncertainty in digital trade
o Rules of origin in auto sector
- Auto sector
o Increase in US production
o Small increase in prices and reduced demand
105
111. Conclusion
•May they serve any purpose?
- Not to reduce trade deficit(s)
oTariffs may reduce both exports and imports
oThey do not change overall trade balance
oMar 6, 2019, NYT:
• “The United States trade deficit in goods
ballooned to its largest level in history, reaching
$891.3 billion in 2018, despite President Trump’s
repeated promise to reduce that figure.”
111
112. Conclusion
•May they serve any purpose?
- Perhaps to motivate other countries to change
policies for the better
oUS is negotiating with
• China, to change their IP policies and increase
imports from US
• EU and Japan to open to more imports of
agricultural goods from US
112
113. Risks from all-out trade war
• Moody’s Mark Zandi estimated an
all-out trade war would cost 4
million U.S. jobs.
• Observed import share in U.S.
consumption deceptively low due
to unobserved competitive effects
of rival suppliers.
• Across-the-board increase in
tariffs may fall heavily on the poor
and families with children
(Furman, Russ, and Shambaugh;
USITC). Source: Furman, Russ, and Shambaugh
Kopf, Dan, “The US states that will be helped and hurt by Trump’s tariffs,” Quartz, March 9, 2018.
https://qz.com/1224271/the-us-states-that-will-be-helped-and-hurt-by-trumps-tariffs/
https://www.cargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NADA-Consumer-Impact-of-Auto-and-Parts-Tariffs-and-Quotas_July-2018.pdf
Schultz et al., “Trade Briefing: Consumer Impact of Potential U.S. Section 232 Tariffs and Quotas on Imported Automobiles & Automotive Parts,” July 2018
https://www.cargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NADA-Consumer-Impact-of-Auto-and-Parts-Tariffs-and-Quotas_July-2018.pdf
Schultz et al., “Trade Briefing: Consumer Impact of Potential U.S. Section 232 Tariffs and Quotas on Imported Automobiles & Automotive Parts,” July 2018
https://www.cargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NADA-Consumer-Impact-of-Auto-and-Parts-Tariffs-and-Quotas_July-2018.pdf
Schultz et al., “Trade Briefing: Consumer Impact of Potential U.S. Section 232 Tariffs and Quotas on Imported Automobiles & Automotive Parts,” July 2018