The document discusses how technological progress is accelerating exponentially. By 2020 there will be over 50 billion connected devices, and 3D printing is advancing to the point where complex objects, foods, and even buildings can be printed on demand. This represents a shift to an "on-demand" economy where anything can be downloaded or produced as needed, placing new demands on networks and infrastructure to support this new paradigm.

1. TM
The Net Effect
It’s Not What We Make, It’s What We Make Possible
Dave Evans
Cisco’s Chief Futurist and Chief Technologist for Cisco IBSG
@DaveTheFuturist
For more information: http://www.cisco.com/go/ibsg/innovations
Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 1

2. We Are Living in Exponential Times
Consider…
In 50 years, 95% of everything we know
will have been discovered in those 50
years.
— Evans
The 21st century will be equivalent to 20,000
years of progress at today’s rate – about
1,000 times greater than the 20th century.
— Ray Kurzweil
American Author,
Inventor, and Futurist
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3. The Internet of Things Is Already Here
World Population: 6.3 Billion 6.8 Billion 7.2 Billion 7.6 Billion
Connected Devices: 500 Million ~10 Billion 19 Billion 50 Billion
More
connected
devices than
people
Connected Devices 0.08 1.47 2.64 6.58
Per Person
2003 2010 2015 2020
19 billion devices, 3.4 billion Internet users by 2016
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011, Cisco VNI 2012
Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 3

4. IoT Growth
Coming in accelerating waves?
1995 – 2000 2000 - 2011 2011 - 2020
“Fixed” computing Mobility / BYOD Internet of Things
(You go the device) (The device goes with you)
50B?
10 B
200 M
Doubled every 1.3 years Doubled every 1.4 years Doubles every x years?
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2012
Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 4

5. 50Billion ―Things‖ Could Be
Just the Beginning…
Computer Camera MEMS sensor
(1x1x1mm) (1x1x1mm) (0.05 x 005 mm)
 Ultra-low-power  Size of a grain of salt  MEMS: Micro-electro-
processor  250x250 resolution mechanical systems
 Pressure sensor  Disposable  Sense temperature,
 Memory  Medical and security pressure, movement,
 Thin-film battery applications etc.
 Solar cell  Represents fourth-
generation sensor
 Wireless radio with
antenna
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; University of Michigan, 2011; Fraunhofer, 2011; Wikipedia, 2011
Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 5

6. New Internet Inhabitants
What do trees, cows, shoes, and your body have in common?
This tree has 4,200 followers… Cow transmits
do you? 200 MB per year Connected shoe
Asthma inhaler
cross-referenced
with
environmental /
weather data LIFX
WiFi-enabled, color Proteus chip
changing LED light bulb transmits data from
your stomach
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Sparked, 2010; Nike, 2010; David Van Sickle, 2011; Proteus, 2011, Kickstarter 2012
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7. Information Explosion
Estimated 5 exabytes of unique information created in 2008
Equivalent to: By 2013:
 1 billion DVDs in one year…  Every ten minutes.
…more information than the past 5,000 years
Sources: Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cisco IBSG, 2006–2012, Google, 2012
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8. Just Three Years Later
Estimated 1.2 zettabytes of unique information created
Equivalent to: By 2013:
 Every person on earth  125 million years of your
tweeting for 100 years favorite 1-hour TV show
By 2020, digital library 44 times larger than 2009
Sources: IDC, 2010; Cisco IBSG, 2006–2011
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9. Information Explosion
>560apps downloaded
210 billion email messages per day every second
60 hours of video By 2015, 1 million video minutes
(equivalent to 674 days) will traverse the
uploaded every minute
1/4 million full-length Hollywood
Internet every second
releases every week (3 billion views per day)
LAST YEAR’S MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC WAS 3X
THE SIZE OF THE ENTIRE GLOBAL
We store 92% INTERNET IN 2000
of this new information
2/3of the world’s mobile data
Home to 140 traffic will be video by 2015
billion photos
10B/Month
…and the pace is accelerating
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006–2011; Cisco VNI, June 2011; Technorati; Radicati Group; IDC; The Economist; Apple; InformationWeek
Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 9

10. The Next Dimension
Tomorrow: Anything on
Demand
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11. A Logical Progression?
Old Way New Way
 From buying books,
CDs, DVDs to
downloading them
 In the future, we will
download things
Sources: Dave Evans, Cisco IBSG, 2011; European Air Defense System
Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 11

12. Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing)
 Additive manufacturing
“The process of joining
materials to make objects
from 3D model data, usually
layer upon layer” Printing file size approx. 1 MB
 Subtractive
manufacturing includes
methodologies such as
traditional machining
Source: Stratasys, 2011
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13. Gimmick? You Decide
Dinosaur skull
Toy car
Model engine
Working bicycle
Sources: Stratasys, 2011; European Air Defense System
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14. Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 14

15. Prototype Savings
Method Cost estimate Time estimate
Machining $900,000 9 months
Stratasys FDM* $25,000 1.5 months
Savings $875,000(97%) 7.5 months(83%)
*Fused Deposition Modeling
Source: Stratasys, 2011
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16. But What About Other Materials?
Engine parts
Complex geometries
Prosthesis
Jewelry
Iron Man suit (plastic) Skin
Sources: Shapeways; WellSphere; Graphic Speak; Ecouterre; Legacy Effects
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17. How About Dinner?
 Control your diet, down to the smallest mineral
 Implications for allergies, diabetes, other diseases
 Download your grandmother’s meatloaf recipe for
dinner?
Food printer concept (MIT) Open-source 3D food printer (approx. cost: $1,000)
Sources: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011; Cornell University, 2011
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18. From the Very Small to the Very Big
A 285 µm racecar
St. Stephen's Cathedral ~100 µm D-Shape: robotic building system
 Vienna University of Technology  Uses new materials to create superior
 High-precision-3D-printer is orders of stone-like structures
magnitude faster than similar devices  Planned tolerances of 5-10 millimeters
 Printing speed: Five meters / second  Four times faster than traditional building
methods
 Costs 30–50% less than manual methods
Source: D-Shape, 2011, Vienna University of Technology, 2012
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19. The network matters now more than ever…
…but not nearly as much as it will in the future!
The journey has only just begun.
“Am I ready? Is my network ready?‖
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
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20. For more information:http://www.cisco.com/go/ibsg/innovations
Follow me on twitter: @DaveTheFuturist