The Necessity of Natural
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When you see a big blue box, watch a video. CUE 1: http://youtu.be/aMfSGt6rHos CUE 2: http://vimeo.com/49355767 CUE 3: http://vimeo.com/49355766
![QUESTIONS OF SCIENCE
[CUE 1.mp4 ]
THE NECESSITY OF NATURAL
OCTOBER 2012 // MARC BRUSH // EDITOR IN CHIEF // @allmybrush](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/femadek-130218165254-phpapp02/85/the-necessity-of-natural-1-320.jpg)
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The Necessity of Natural
- 1. QUESTIONS OF SCIENCE [CUE 1.mp4 ] THE NECESSITY OF NATURAL OCTOBER 2012 // MARC BRUSH // EDITOR IN CHIEF // @allmybrush
- 2. THE NECESSITY OF NATURAL OCTOBER 2012 // MARC BRUSH // EDITOR IN CHIEF // @allmybrush
- 3. NUTRITION : THEN & NOW & THEN CY 2001 : $56 B CY 2011 : $126 B CY 2021 : $261 B Supplements Supplements Supplements 33% 24% 22% newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 4. THE DATA
- 5. NUTRITION : ENGINEERED : $71 B FUNCTIONAL FOOD IN CY 2011 : $41 B SUPPLEMENTS IN CY 2011 : $30 B Meal Replacements 10% newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 6. NUTRITION : NATURAL : $55 B NATURAL & ORGANIC FOOD IN CY 2011 : $43 B NATURAL LIVING IN CY 2011 : $12 B Oral 3% newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 7. NUTRITION : WHERE’S THE GROWTH? newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 8. SUPPLEMENTS : SALES & GROWTH newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 9. SUPPLEMENTS : WHERE’S THE GROWTH? newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 10. SUPPLEMENTS : HOT PRODUCTS > Gut health (pre- , pro-, syn-, cobiotics, enzymes) > Brain health (cognition, mood, stress, insomnia) > Inflammation (pain, joint, bone) (vit K, vit D, magnesium) > Whole-food supplements > Protein (sports nutrition, meal replacements) (whey, soy, rice, pea) newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 11. FUNCTIONAL : SALES & GROWTH newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 12. FUNCTIONAL : WHERE’S THE GROWTH? newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 13. FUNCTIONAL : HOT PRODUCTS > Energy drinks > Naturally functional (chia, quinoa, ancient grains) (blueberry, açaí, pomegranate) > Protein (bars, shakes, packaged food) > Probiotics (food service, chocolate, sweeteners, straws) > Junktional (cookies, muffins, chips, pizza) newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 14. N&O FOOD : SALES & GROWTH newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 15. N&O FOOD : WHERE’S THE GROWTH? newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 16. N&O FOOD : HOT PRODUCTS > Fruits & vegetables > Tea (RTD, loose leaf) > Ancient grains > Chocolate > Snacks > Lifestyle diets (vegan, gluten-free, paleo) > Raw, sprouted > Baby food newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 17. NATURAL LIVING : SALES & GROWTH newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 18. NATURAL LIVING : HOT PRODUCTS > Pet food (dry, fresh, raw, no-grain, organic) > Green cleaners > Babies, kids & teens (soaps, sunscreen) > Topical / ingestible (copacked beauty) > Plan stem cells > Salon, spa, prestige newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 19. THE INSIGHT
- 20. ON TREND : WHOLE FOODS “ P&G , in one fell swoop, just validated the entire whole-food supplement category. — ROBERT CRAVEN, MEGAFOOD ” NBJ RESEARCH $800 M in CY 2011 sales +9.3% annual growth Setting the tone: MegaFood Garden of Life New Chapter newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 21. ON TREND : BRAIN SPACE America! 10% depressed, 18% anxious in any given year SOURCE: CDC, NATIONAL INSTIITUTE OF MENTAL HEALTH $2,725 per employee in excess health costs SOURCE: ELEMENTS HEALTH PLANS $16.4 billion in direct / indirect medical costs SOURCE: BRAVEWELL COLLABORATIVE Melatonin +26%, valerian +11%, kava kava +41% @YoungDrMike SOURCE: NBJ, CY 2011 9/17/11 1:24 PM Condition-specific mood +11%, insomnia +12% CDC: Half of SOURCE: NBJ, CY 2010 Americans will Actual work hours per worker in CY 2011 suffer from DE 1,413 SOURCE: OECD mental health UK 1,625 US 1,787 woes newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 22. OBSTACLE : DSHEA IN PURSUIT OF MEDICINE Pre-market registration system Pre-market GMP inspection Pre-market proof of safety Disease claims driven by science Exclusivity on claims backed by science newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 23. OBSTACLE : FOOD SCIENCE IT’S A STORY OF VILLAINS & HEROES rBGH GMO newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 24. ON TREND: FOOD REFORM FEAR ↔ LOVE newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 25. OPPORTUNITY : PROP 37 rBGH @AnniesCEO 8/23/12 10:40 PM Yes on 37: We are in $$, stand up and be counted CA… Consumers deserve truth in labels. Let’s GMO win this… newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 26. THE SYSTEM
- 27. THE CORNER STORE [CUE 2.mp4] newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 28. TOMORROW’S YESTERDAY X% of the next 20 years will be spent undoing the past 50. Solve for X.
- 29. The advance of natural products is one manifestation of the system in flux. (We’re unraveling.) PICK A SOCIAL FABRIC Politics? TEA PARTY Wall Street? CROWDFUNDING Healthcare? INTEGRATIVE MEDICINE Education? CYBER CHARTERS Climate? IT’S REALLY HOT Food? PROP 37 Middle Class? OCCUPY newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 31. TRANSCENDENT TRANSPARENCY “In a world where nothing can be hidden, you’d better have nothing to hide.” — Greg Page, Cargill
- 33. LABELING GMOs newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 34. Innovation can & will look just as much like UN-DOING as NEW-DOING.
- 35. A PROPER CAUSE [ CUE 3.mp4] newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
- 36. Thanks for listening. Call anytime. +1 303 998 9249. OUT NOW : Natural & Organic OUT NOW UP NEXT : Raw Materials nextforecast.com newhope360.com/nbj newhope360.com/ newhope360.com/
Editor's Notes
- That’s Chipotle. Couple million for 6 million hits online & press. We’ll get back to this. Its indicative to me of the many subversions underway across the systems we enjoy, including the food supply.
- Thanks to Jeb, Jane & Don Wilkes at Blue Pacific for bringing me here.
- This is what we do at NBJ. We size nutrition & figure out why it looks that way – current trends – plus where it’s headed. Here’s where it’s headed. The trend toward natural is serious.
- Dive a bit deeper by market.
- Science as dividing line. Functional is all about beverages, largely energy through mass. Supplements saw rapid growth around protein categories.
- Lots more shading, right? Faster growth for several years now, even in soft economy. Whole Foods, UNFI, Hain are great bellweathers here. Why? Science at arm’s length.
- Growth across the board—large trend toward healthier fare—but fastest in natural categories. Roughly 5x conventional peer groups.
- 7% growth in 2011, strong performance, mid single digits ahead with regulatory concerns we’ll speak to later.
- Blue & orange, sports nutrition & meal replacements, protein—the one macronutrient never to get dinged like fats & carbs.
- Gut health poised for major breakthroughs beyond probiotic flushes thx to Human Macrobiome Project. Brain space twin pillared around cognitive decline in Boomers & mood dysfunction in Millenials.
- 8% growth, big rebound driven by energy beverages—not a health product, which concerns me.
- Beverages, snacks.
- Naturally functional the new paradigm. Superfruits & foods. Junktional has a thick tail, but how long is it?
- 10+% growth & staying there.
- Dairy, meat—animal products. Antibioic fears. Fruits & veggies. Pesticide fears. Snacks. A bridge, full of deal activity from PE & IPO & strategics.
- Lifestyle diets present entry into the larger discussion. More folks enter through a door—say gluten free—and expand from that to organic, whole, raw foods.
- Young, early, but the next wave after food. 6% growth moving up.
- Humanization of pets leads to strong performance. Copacking of topicals & ingestibles for nutribeauty a la India & Europe. Personal care about matching efficacy & feel.
- Trends that matter.
- Fruits & veggies in a pill. Time has come for longstanding pioneers here. Minimal processing. Dryers. Organic, local sourcing. Seasonal formulations. Even Pfizer’s pretending a bit. $250m deal for New Chapter going to P&G. Expect big broad channel expansion there.
- 20 million depressed, 40 million anxious. Modern american workstyle unsustainable. Pops in sales across ingredients, conditions This is the next O3 heart health contender, if the products work, even in combination.
- Supplements regulated as a food & traditionally taken that way, but DSHEA created free-market opportunity that continues to push supps toward medicine. Quicker durations of efficacy, bolder advertising claims, more specific conditions targeted. If consumers want them to be medicine, how do we create a regulatory environment to promote the science necessary to prove that? Some ideas from July cover story.
- Food science is under serious attack. It’s iunclear to me that we really want science in our food. We want it in medicine, in technology, but maybe not food. Natural study—quit poking around. Science can equate to processing. It’s also a narrative in consumer psyche, with heroes & villains.
- So food reform flourished. So many movements gaining traction along this spectrum of fear to love. Here’s the big three.
- Oh boy. Buckle your seatbelts. Whether or not it passes—and I still believe it will—the communities around food reform—especially orgainc food leadership—have gotten a taste of real, gamechanging change. It’s united them. GM will be labeled & strategic landscape is already set for some of the victors there. Among CPGs, it’s being set now & they will turn away from the category if consumers ask them to turn.
- Let’s ladder up.
- Tough to follow, but consider the population here & listen to what they want.
- Larger theme that informs much of our research right now.
- Debunk, unravel, reclaim Connor: “… the unhinged ferris wheel of the free market rolling into the abyss …”
- New York City
- Meat slurry! Reconstituted meat parts! Pink slime lives!
- Noise is on your side.