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the location of structurally vacant offices
The link between location characteristics and structural
office vacancy in Utrecht, and how to regenerate the
Merwede quarter, an area with high office vacancy
Delft University of Technology
Master thesis in Architecture, Urbanism & Building Science
Reinier van Wingerden
January 2013
ii
Title
The location of structurally vacant offices
Subtitle
The link between location characteristics and structural
office vacancy in Utrecht, and how to regenerate the
Merwede quarter, an area with high office vacancy
Cover
View on Kanaleneiland (adapted from Bing, 2012)
Personalia
Reinier van Wingerden
Student number:	B1274074
Address: 	 Bagijnhof 71, 2611 AN Delft
Telephone: 	 +31 (0)6 470 841 57
E-mail: 		 r.vanwingerden@quicknet.nl
Delft University of Technology
MSc in Architecture, Urbanism & Building Science
Faculty of Architecture
Address:		 Julianalaan 134, 2628 BL Delft
Telephone: 	 +31 (0)15 278 9805
E-mail: 		 info@tudelft.nl
Department of Real estate & Housing
Real Estate Management lab
Coordinator: 	 Dr. Ir. D.J.M. van der Voordt
Main mentor: 	 Dr. Ir. H.T. Remøy
Second mentor: 	 Drs. P.W. Koppels
Department of Urbanism
Urban Regeneration lab
Coordinator: 	 Dr. Ir. P.L.M. Stouten
Main mentor: 	 Dr. Ir. P.L.M. Stouten
Second mentor: 	 Ir. L.P.J. van den Burg
OfficeUp
Graduation company
Address:		 Regulierenring 35, 3981 LA Bunnik
Telephone:	 +31 (0)30 659 8414
E-mail:		 info@officeup.nl
Mentor:		 Ir. R.G. Muller
Delft, January 16th
2013
the location of structurally vacant offices
The link between location characteristics and structural
office vacancy in Utrecht, and how to regenerate the
Merwede quarter, an area with high office vacancy
Delft University of Technology
Master thesis in Architecture, Urbanism & Building Science
Reinier van Wingerden
January 2013
iii
Contents
Preface������������������������������������������������������� iv
Abstract������������������������������������������������������ 1
Part I Introduction
1..Introduction���������������������������������������������� 9
1.1	 Problem statement 10
1.2	Stakeholders 10
1.3	 Location 11
1.4	Aim 11
1.5	 Research questions 12
1.6	 Research design 12
1.7	 Final products 13
1.8	 Hypothesis 13
1.9	 Relevance 14
2..Context�������������������������������������������������� 15
2.1	 The Netherlands 17
2.2	 The Utrecht region 18
2.3	 Office areas  21
2.4	Kanaleneiland 27
Part II causes of vacancy
3..Theoretical framework����������������������������� 29
3.1	Mismatch 30
3.2	 Location characteristics 32
3.2.1	Accessibility 34
3.2.2	 Facilities 36
3.2.3	 Public space 36
3.2.4	 Prestige 38
3.2.5	 Functionality 39
3.2.6	 Environment 40
3.3	 Building characteristics 40
3.4	Overview 42
3.5	 Conclusions 44
4..Empirical������������������������������������������������ 45
4.1	 Data collection 46
4.2	 Descriptive statistics 48
4.3	 Exploratory data analysis 50
4.3.1	 Accessibility 53
4.3.2	 Facilities 59
4.3.3	 Public space 61
4.3.4	 Prestige 65
4.3.5	 Functionality 72
4.3.6	 Environment 76
4.3.7	Building 77
4.4	 Multi-collinearity  80
4.5	 Explanatory analysis 80
4.5.1	 Logistic regression 80
4.5.2	 Regression model 81
4.6	 Conclusions 84
5..Conclusions cause����������������������������������� 85
5.1	 Conclusions 85
5.2	 Remarks 87
5.3	 Accessibility of data 87
Part III coping with vacancy
6..Theoretical framework����������������������������� 89
6.1	 Interventions 90
6.2	 Functions 94
6.3	 Conclusions 96
7..Location analysis������������������������������������� 97
7.1	 Kanaleneiland 99
7.1.1	 Historical development 99
7.1.2	 Design 105
7.1.3	 Deprivation 105
7.1.4	 Office vacancy 106
7.2	 Merwede quarter 106
7.2.1	 Causes location  108
7.2.2	 Exploratory factors location 111
7.2.3	 Inventory buildings 111
7.2.4	 Causes building 112
7.2.5	 Surrounding areas 118
7.2.6	 Developments 118
7.3	Conclusions 121
8..Urban regeneration��������������������������������123
8.1	 Current situation 124
8.2	 Strategies 125
8.2.1	 Merwede mixed environment 126
8.2.2	 Facilitating centre 133
8.2.3	 Claiming the public space 140
8.2.4	 Implementation 147
8.2.5	 Final outcome 148
8.3	 Conclusions 150
9..Conclusions�������������������������������������������151
9.1	 Conclusions 151
9.2	 Remarks 151
Part IV conclusions
10..... Overall conclusions���������������������������154
10.1	 Research findings 154
10.1.1	 Causes of vacancy 154
10.1.2	 Coping with vacancy 154
10.2	 Implications for practice 154
10.3	 Further research 155
10.3.1	 Causes of vacancy 155
10.3.2	 Coping with vacancy 155
Literature�������������������������������������������������157
Appendix I.	 Mentors 160
Appendix II.	 Terminology 161
Appendix III.	 Variables studies 163
The location of structurally vacant offices
iv
Preface
This thesis is the final product of my graduation project for the departments of Real estate  Housing and
Urbanism at Delft University of Technology. The topic of this graduation project is the location characteristics
of structurally vacant offices. Structural vacancy is an issue that troubles the minds of researchers, developers,
owners and many more, including me. At the beginning of my study in Delft, the feeling prevailed that everything
was possible in the building industry. Currently, the situation on the market is a lot more troubling than ever
before, changing the way of looking to real estate. Structural vacancy is one of the current problems on a market
were the sky used to be the limit. It seems to me that the sky has been reached.
Due to the current crisis in the building industry, the role of the real estate manager is changing. Instead of
developing real estate at high speed, conversion of the current stock is becoming much more important. With
the amount of square meters of office space being larger than the demand, offices can stand out by increasingly
meeting the demands of office users. But not only the building needs to meet the demands of office users, its
location is perhaps as important. Knowledge of what users do and what users do not want is therefore increasingly
important. Office conversion research often looks at the possibility of transforming a single building at a time.
This scope may not be wide enough. When problems on area level are apparent, conversion on building level
is insignificant. Problems on urban level should in my view be attacked on urban level. Therefore knowledge of
demand on urban level is ever so important. This research, investigating what kind of office locations become
vacant, will contribute to that knowledge and to the position of the real estate manager in a changing context.
Office location conversions will also provide an interesting subject for urban designers. Current trends ask for
urban developments within the city limits, no longer outside. Densifying and intensifying is the new assignment.
While old industrial areas are a type of area within city limits which are regularly being regenerated, office
locations are not yet. This thesis could prove a first investigation of the possibilities of bringing new life to office
locations.
In my opinion, for professionals in the building industry it will become equally important to be able to identify
the demand of users, as to offer commercially attractive solutions. An urbanist with solely knowledge of matters
of designing but no knowledge of the requirements and feasibility of area development will be overruled by
professionals that can combine best of both worlds. The same applies for real estate managers or developers;
without an integrated design for the area, their projects could become less feasible. As a personal objective,
combining best of both worlds is what I’m trying to achieve by combining Real estate  Housing with Urbanism.
This thesis offered a good test of my ability to do so. Enjoy reading.
Reinier van Wingerden, Delft, January 2013
1
Abstract
Introduction
This study is dedicated to the problem of structural office vacancy, a problem that seems quantitative at first. By
the end of 2011, 6.8 million m² LFA was left vacant in the Netherlands, equalling 14.1% of the office stock, and
this percentage is still growing (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2012). Multiple parties expect this percentage to rise in the coming
years. The expectations range from 20% in 2020 (NVB, 2011), 25% in 2020 (Dynamis, 2011) or already in 2015
(ABN AMRO, 2011) or even 48% in 2030 (ING Economisch Bureau, 2011). A large part of the vacant offices, 28%
(DTZ Zadelhoff, 2010), are structurally vacant, i.e. for a period of at least three consecutive years. In Utrecht, the
city under study, 8.3% of its office stock is vacant (Gemeente Utrecht, 2011b).
Aim
The aim of this research is twofold. The aim is (1) to find common location characteristics increasing the risk of
the occurrence of structural office vacancy, and (2) to design an urban strategy for an office district with high
office vacancy in Utrecht. This graduation project has focussed on the following three aspects in particular; (1)
validating previous research results in a different context, (2) specifying these results with different research
methods and (3) developing a regeneration strategy on urban area level for an office district.
KEYWORDS: structural office vacancy, location, cause, cope, urban regeneration, Utrecht
Main research question
The structure of the research is to first identify which location characteristics are increasing risk on structural
office vacancy in office districts. With that knowledge, the next question is how to eliminate these found factors
and define an urban strategy to revitalize an area with high vacancy rates. This results in the following main
research question:
“Which and to what extent do location characteristics increase the risk of the occurrence of structural office
vacancy in Utrecht, and what kind of urban strategies are needed to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an area
with high structural office vacancy?”
The main research question consists of two parts; the first about causes of office vacancy and the second about
coping with office vacancy. This division can be recognized in the structure of the report.
Sub research questions
To find an answer to the main questions, several sub research questions are defined. The sub research questions
can also be distinguished as questions regarding the causes of office vacancy, and questions concerning how to
cope with office vacancy. In the following sections, these questions will be elaborated.
PART I Causes of vacancy
“What is the assumed reciprocity between location characteristics and structural office vacancy?”
Macro level
Office vacancy is caused by a mismatch of demand and supply, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Quantitative
mismatch is caused by the market approached from a space market point of view; a geographically determined
office space market. Quantitative causes start with the phenomenon of cyclical fluctuations of surpluses
and deficits in the market is widely known as the ‘hog cycle’. Somewhat different is surplus production, in a
geographically determined market such as a city, or on a specific location, caused by the ‘spatial fix’. Societal and
economic changes affect user demand as well. Currently this is clearly visible since due to the economic crisis,
the amount of office jobs had decreased, therefore demand for office space has declined. Another influence
is ‘the new way of working’, decreasing demand since companies can cope with less office space. In a normal
functioning market, a vacancy percentage of 4 – 5% is necessary to offer space for companies to move between
buildings, which is called frictional vacancy. Qualitative factors influence buildings to become vacant as well. As
quality standards rise, buildings can become obsolete in a short amount of time. Finally, the quality of both the
building and the location very much determine which buildings become vacant; the least desired building and
the least desired locations.
The location of structurally vacant offices
2
“What location characteristics are generally believed to be related to the causes of office vacancy, and how can
they be measured?”
Meso level
The conceptual model on meso level is based on the research factors of four studies (De Vrij, 2004, Geraedts and
Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010, Hegeman, 2011). The graduation study of De Vrij (2004) is taken into account
due to the basis that it has established for the ‘conversion potential meter’. Geraedts and Van der Voordt (2004)
have created an instrument for defining the lower end of the office premises market in ‘Good buildings drive out
bad buildings’, which is included in the selection. ‘Out of office’ is the PhD thesis of Remøy (2010) in which she
studies, amongst other things, the cause of office vacancy. The final included research is the study of Hegeman
(2011) which was the most recent study on the relation between a building and office users at the start of this
research.
The definitions used by the researchers for the location category and location factor investigated are redefined
and compared to get an overview of what the researchers considered during their study. This resulted in six
location categories; accessibility, facilities, public space, prestige, functionality and environment. It is assumed
that depending on the outcome of these six categories, the location can have a match or a mismatch between
demand and supply.
The specific location factors that followed from these studies are: accessibility by car, airplane, train, metro, tram
and bus; catering, parking and shopping facilities; green; image rating and safety; housing and employment; and
noise and odour pollution.
“Is there a significant relationship between location characteristics and the occurrence of structural office vacancy
in Utrecht?”
Exploratory data analysis
The first step analysed the relation between a single independent variable and the dependent variable: structural
vacancy. This was done using simple regression for continuous data (interval or ratio) and binary logistic regression
for nominal and ordinal data to look for significant correlation between the two. The exploratory analysis results
in several variables with a relation to structural office vacancy. In Utrecht, structurally vacant offices:
•	 are closest to the highway
•	 are best accessible by car
•	 are furthest away from a train station
•	 are not well accessible by public transport
•	 are far away from a tram stop
•	 are not accessible from the city centre within three turns
•	 have insufficient worker amenities within 500 meter
•	 are located along poor to average public space
o	 where comfort is poor
	 where comfort to walk is poor or average
	 where comfort to stand is poor
	 where comfort to see is poor
	 where comfort to talk is poor or average
o	 where enjoyment of sensory experiences is poor or average
	 where possibilities to enjoy the scale are poor or average
	 where possibilities to enjoy the positive aspects of the climate are poor or average
•	 are located in a neighbourhood where the image is rated lowest of the city
•	 are located in a neighbourhood where the highest percentage of inhabitants feel unsafe often
•	 are located in areas with the least registered incidents of criminality of the city
•	 are located in areas with the lowest percentage of inhabitants indicating traffic problems
•	 are located in areas with the lowest amount of dwellings
•	 are located in areas with the largest amount of jobs
•	 are located in business districts or monofunctional office areas
•	 are constructed between 1980 and 1989
•	 have a low technical state façade
3
Multi-collinearity
The second step was to investigate the dataset for bivariate correlation. This shows interdependence, two
variables are mutually dependent on each other, which was the case between two characteristics;
•	 There was a significant relationship between image and safety , r = 0.898, p (two-tailed)  0.01.
“Which and to what extent do location characteristics increase risk of structural office vacancy in Utrecht?”
Explanatory
The final step consisted of building a logistic regression model. In multivariate analysis, multiple variables are
analysed simultaneously. Logistic regression is type of data analysis that suits the available data with a dependent
variable (structural office vacancy) with a dichotomous outcome. This method enabled creating an explanatory
model that explains why some of the buildings are structurally vacant and others are not by determining the
influence of the variables. In Utrecht, structural vacant offices often share these characteristics:
•	 are not well accessible by public transport
•	 are located along public space where comfort is poor
About the buildings can be stated that in Utrecht structurally vacant offices often:
•	 have a low or medium technical state façade
CONCLUSIONS Cause
Based on the answers on the sub research questions, the main question about the causes of structural office
vacancy could be answered. The main question was: “Which and to what extent do location characteristics
increase the risk of the occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht?”
This question can be answered by the results of the explanatory analysis. Risk increasing location characteristics
are:
•	 Modality: when not well accessible by public transport, the higher the odds of structural office vacancy
Goudappel Coffeng (2011) measured this by the mobility by the amount of people that can access an area within
30 minutes by public transport.
•	 Comfort of public space: the lower the comfort of the public space, the higher the odds of structural office
vacancy
This can be measured by Gehl’s method (2006) of assessment of possibilities to walk, stand, sit, see, talk and play.
The main question asked was: “Which and to what extent do location characteristics increase the risk of the
occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht?”. There were four studies selected which look at what location
characteristics are risk increasing factors in terms of vacancy (De Vrij, 2004, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004,
Hegeman, 2011, Remøy, 2010). The analysis of these studies led to a number of location characteristics, as well as
a few building characteristics, to be studied in the city of Utrecht. These characteristics, studied by 102 buildings
of which 21 structurally vacant, were analysed using logistic regression to determine the relationship between
the location and office vacancy. The final outcome was that in Utrecht structurally vacant offices:
•	 Are not well accessible by public transport
•	 Have a low comfort of public space
•	 Have a low or medium maintenance state of the façade
The location of structurally vacant offices
4
PART II Coping with vacancy
“What kind of methods are available in order to regenerate an area with high vacancy?”
Interventions
Most common methods to cope with office vacancy are interventions on building level. When solutions on
building level are not sufficient, actions can be undertaken on urban area level; urban regeneration. Possible
interventions are:
•	 Consolidation (neither quantitative nor qualitative)
•	 Modernisation (qualitative)
•	 Conversion (quantitative)
•	 Demolishment (quantitative)
•	 Urban regeneration (quantitative and/or qualitative)
Problems
The problems where urban regeneration could provide solutions are:
•	 Economic activity lost
•	 Social dysfunction
•	 Social exclusion
•	 Environmental quality lost
•	 Ecological balance lost
Actions
The ingredients for (an) urban regeneration (plan) are:
•	 A comprehensive vision
•	 Strategic, long term improvements
•	 Improvements in the economic, physical, social or environmental conditions
Urban area (re-)development
The increasing urban dynamics have consequences for the complexity of urban area developments, wherefore it
is important to know the ingredients of urban area development; context, content, actors and means (Franzen et
al., 2010). The context of an area very much determines the intervention method.
Functions
When converting buildings, it is important to find a match between demand and supply. There are all sorts of
different functions possible, which include:
•	 Dwellings
•	 Student housing
•	 Housing for the elderly
•	 (Public) facilities
•	 Retail
•	 Hotels
•	 Catering facilities
•	 Healthcare facilities
•	 Art/culture
With conversion projects it is often not possible to initiate action without a combination of functions. Buildings are
often too large for one single function or user. To achieve the most efficient use of the building, it is an option to
house several functions.
5
“What are the problems of the location in the Merwede quarter in Utrecht?”
Obstacles
Due to the phased additions to the city, Kanaleneiland is surrounded by obstacles such as the Merwede canal
and Amsterdam-Rhine canal, as well as the highway A12. Kanaleneiland became an autonomous district, slightly
isolated from the rest of the city. The post war design of the area, by C.M. van der Stad, carefully designed the
whole area, except for a zoning plan assigned for industry and businesses in the East. In this part is the Merwede
quarter, the area within Kanaleneiland with the most square meters of structurally vacant offices. Therefore this
area formed the main design area for this research.
Post war design
Kanaleneiland is a typical example of a post war district, except for three major differences from other post war
districts; (1) Kanaleneiland has very wide roads, (2) it was designed to prioritise car use and (3) there was no
public green between the building blocks. The four key points of the design were:
•	 Large scale
•	 North-South orientation
•	 Intensive land use and industrial building method
•	 Differentiation of the Northern part
Deprivation
Initially the inhabitants were very satisfied with their dwellings. At the end of the 1960s the opinion about
the area changed. The scale of the new areas was seen as too large and too monotonous. Due to the lack of
larger terraced housing, the district became less popular among the middle class. Although the neighbourhood
concept was the dominant form at that time, in current times the clustering of facilities is experienced as social
dysfunction. In the 1970s there was not sufficient funds to maintain or renew the outdated facilities, and the
public green was used for the construction of new housing, schools and sports fields. Deprivation of public space
and porticos occurred and apartments obtained a negative image due to the impersonal scale and the anonymous
atmosphere. Kanaleneiland was appointed as a deprived neighbourhood (‘probleemwijk’).
Office vacancy
Kanaleneiland has been chosen as main subject for the part about coping with vacancy because this area has the
most square meters office space vacant of Utrecht. The largest problems in terms of structural office vacancy can
be found in the Mewede quarter.
Causes location
The Merwede quarter is well accessible by public transport, therefore these problems are not apparent on this
location. The comfort of the public space is to be assessed as poor, which is a factor which increases risk on
structural office vacancy occurring.
Buildings
There are 14 offices in the area from the 31 buildings in total. Four of them are partly vacant and three of them
are completely vacant. Other functions are industrial buildings (with office space), two gas stations, two shops
and a fish shop. There is also an abundance of parking space.
Causes building
The technical state of the façades in the Merwede quarter are up to standard, therefore not increasing risk on
office vacancy occurring.
Developments
The area is surrounded by many different functions, such as offices, industrial buildings, commercial areas and
housing. The area is in transition, by the structure vision of the Municipality of Utrecht and the A12 Zone plan,
which both envision a greater mix of functions. Change can already be seen by some housing projects in the
immediate surroundings of the Merwede quarter.
The location of structurally vacant offices
6
Urban regeneration
The problems described above can be distinguished as loss of economic activity; clearly visible by the vacancy in
the area; social dysfunction; the design of the area according to the neighbourhood concept led to segregation,
and social exclusion; for instance the small diversity of households in Kanaleneiland. There are problems in the
Merwede quarter that can be addressed by urban regeneration
CONCLUSIONS Coping with vacancy
The main research question for how to cope with office vacancy is as follows:
“What kind of urban strategies are needed to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an area with high structural office
vacancy?”
The problems with vacancy are both quantitative as qualitative. The Merwede quarter is an area where economic
activity is lost, where there is social dysfunction and where social exclusion is apparent (Couch et al., 2003). Urban
regeneration is concerned with solving this type of problems. Due to the economic crisis, blue print designing is
no longer an option. Urban regeneration requires a comprehensive vision and strategic long term improvements
in the economic, physical, social or environmental conditions (Roberts and Sykes, 2000). The comprehensive
vision foresees an area with a clear centre where some facilities are and people come to meet and relax, a
comfortable public space centrally in the design which acts as the main axis and offers space for office users
to relax during breaks, and an recreational route along the Merwede canal where people can benefit from the
beautiful environment, and most importantly; problems with office vacancy are diminished.
The area was scanned for locations that offer possibilities to offer strategic solutions. Three locations were
selected; a part in the North with two (to be) vacant office buildings, a few industrial buildings quite centrally
located in the area, and the two long roads within the area. For these locations, interventions from which the
area would benefit were designed. The strategies are designed to have different phases; the first phase with
interventions are intended to stimulate further interventions in a second phase.
Merwede mixed environment
This strategy aims to convert vacant offices into housing and thereby creating a mixed environment in the area.
Parking space at the site could be converted step-wise into semi-public space for the inhabitants.
The effect of this strategy would be that more activity during and after work hours is generated, increasing the
social control. That could mean that the safety en thereby the image of the area would improve, increasing
the desirability of living and working in this area. Occupancy of the offices could be positively affected by the
improved situation in the area, and further implementation of bringing housing to the area would be stimulated
along the Merwede Canal since apartments are often of higher value than the industrial buildings currently in
the area.
Facilitating centre
Facilitating centre is a strategy aimed to start off with tackling the problem of vacant industrial buildings quite
centrally located in the area. The industrial buildings can be converted into a café-restaurant, a city beach and
a breeding place for starting companies; thereby solving the problem social dysfunction. The large terrain
surrounding these industrial buildings can be converted into public space, creating a centre in the area where
users can go. As a spin-off, owners of adjacent buildings can decide to convert or demolish their (low value)
industrial buildings and replace them by facilities; either only in the plinth or in the whole building.
The effect of the strategy could be that the activities in the area increase, both during work hours as after work
hours. As with the previous strategy, the social control would thereby increase, increasing the feeling of safety
and the image of the area. The part with facilities would start to act as a true centre of the area, creating an
identity of the Merwede quarter. These positive effects could have impact on the desirability of the offices, which
would increase, bringing down office vacancy. When the facilities in the area proof successful, owners of the
adjacent industrial buildings could opt for selling their land in order to convert or demolish the existing building
and adding more facilities to the area.
7
Claiming the public space
The strategy aims to give back the public space to the pedestrians and cyclists in several steps, in order to activate
live on the street and create an identity for the area to which the users can relate. This is done by taking space
from the cars to be assigned to pedestrians. The Zeehaenkade can be gradually banning cars totally, giving the
space to pedestrians and cyclists.
A direct result of the strategy could be that the comfort of the public space would increase, generating more
liveliness on the street. The Zeehaenkade could start to act as a recreational route, increasing activity both during
work hours as after. Hereby the social control would increase, which can increase the feeling of safety and the
image of the area. This could have a positive effect on office use, as simultaneously the identity of the area starts
to improve. The willingness to invest in the public space could increase as positive effects can be seen from this
strategy, further improving the public space of the area.
Implementation
The strategies can be implemented immediately. They can be implemented at the same time, but not necessarily.
In order to stimulate initiatives, but to prevent uncontrolled sprawl, a zoning plan for the Merwede quarter is
necessary to steer developments.
The location of structurally vacant offices
8
PartI
Introduction
Figure 1. Vacant office (Reformatorisch dagblad, 2012)
9
1.	 Introduction
This chapter gives a broad overview of the thesis subject, starting with the problem under study, the location of
the research, the research questions, the research design and the hypothesis. These subjects will be elaborated
upon in the next chapters.
1.
The location of structurally vacant offices
QualitativeQuantitative
Building LocationMarket
Figure 2. Quantitative and qualitative factors
10
1.1	 Problem statement
This research started out in 2011 when the total supply of office space in the Netherlands was 48.2 million m²
lettable floor area (LFA). Of these offices, 6.8 million m² LFA was left vacant in Q4 2011, meaning there was
14.1% office vacancy and this percentage is still slowly growing (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2012). Multiple parties expect
this percentage to rise in the coming years. The expectations range from 20% in 2020 (NVB, 2011), 25% in 2020
(Dynamis, 2011) or already in 2015 (ABN AMRO, 2011) or even 48% in 2030 (ING Economisch Bureau, 2011). A
large part of the vacant offices, 28% (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2010), are structurally vacant, i.e. for a period of at least three
consecutive years.
Office vacancy occurs due to a mismatch in demand and supply, both quantitative (the market) as qualitative
(building and location characteristics). The economic crisis led to a decrease of office jobs, leading to a declined
demand for office space. Simultaneously, ‘the new way of working’ ensures that companies can cope with less
office space than before. The ageing population in the Netherlands causes the working population to decrease,
also bringing down the demand.
Currently there are still new buildings being developed. These buildings usually meet the qualitative demands of
office user organizations, causing the lower end of the office market to become vacant.
Although there are experts who believe the market will improve, others are more sceptical. They state that there
is a structural surplus in the office market, and that vacancy will persist in the lower end of the office market
(Voordt et al., 2007, de Architekten Cie, 2007).
There are several possibilities of how to cope with vacancy, one of which is conversion. However, actions usually
take place on building level and not on urban level. There are many cases where actions on building level aren’t
sufficient but action needs to be taken on urban scale. Knowledge on the impact of the area on office vacancy
should be further developed, as should the urban strategies of regenerating an office area. To deal with office
vacancy is an assignment with urban dimensions as Architekten Cie states (2007).
1.2	 Stakeholders
Housing and commercial real estate were hit hardest of the building sector by the crisis, with a decline in turnover
of over 8% in 2009 (ANP, 2010b). Vacancy is causing economic problems for office owners and investors, since the
building is providing less or no revenues (Deloitte Real Estate Advisory, 2011).
Official bodies, such as the government and municipality, will lose (tax) revenues. Municipalities can lose income
of up to 3 billion euro every year since many developments have been stopped or delayed (Deloitte Real Estate
Advisory, 2011). Land development used to be a stable source of income for municipalities, but since demand of
office space declined drastically, municipalities have trouble selling land to developers. Land value has declined
while expenses are rising through the many square meters of unsellable land, causing municipalities to have
financial difficulties paying off interest (NRC Handelsblad, 2010). For society, consisting of office users, residents
and passers, vacancy causes problems of insecurity and social uncertainty (van der Voordt et al., 2007).
As a secondary effect, vacancy can give a surrounding area a negative image, decreasing the attractiveness for
all stakeholders, leading to deterioration of that area as a whole and devaluation of its buildings. This could lead
to further downwards spiralling developments, which will cause problems for the functioning of a city, again
influencing involved stakeholders.
11
1.3	 Location
Many studies on structural office vacancy and conversion possibilities were performed in Amsterdam. Research in
Amsterdam on structural vacancy revealed that locations with a high number of office buildings and employment
in the manufacturing or distribution sector, together with a lack of facilities and low quality land use for public
space are locations that are left vacant (Remøy, 2010).
My thesis was performed in the office market in Utrecht in order to validate these results or reveal differences to
what kind of locations are left vacant. There are two different scales on which location characteristics play a role.
One is one area level; location characteristics that apply to all the buildings within a certain area. The other scale
is on building level; location characteristics that differ between buildings within a certain area.
1.4	 Aim
Research has already been done on the relation between office locations and office vacancy, and still new research
is being performed since office vacancy is a very current topic. However, research has not been done in the city of
Utrecht, which could lead to different results. Office vacancy is mostly being researched by researchers with a real
estate background, while an approach based on the analysis of the urban context could lead to different insights.
Methods to regenerate offices are also being researched from a real estate point of view on building level, while
also here an approach based on the urban context could lead to new strategies.
The aim of the research is twofold. The aim is (1) to find common location characteristics increasing the risk of
the occurrence of structural office vacancy, and (2) to design an urban strategy for an office district with high
office vacancy in Utrecht. This graduation project has focussed on the following three aspects in particular; (1)
validating previous research results in a different context, (2) specifying these results with different research
methods and (3) developing a regeneration strategy on urban area level for an office district.
1. Introduction
Figure 3. Research design
research question
data analysis
literature study
location analysis
conclusions
literature study
conclusions
“Which and to what extent do location
characteristics increase the risk of the
occurrence of structural office vacancy
in Utrecht, and what kind of urban
strategies are needed to regenerate
the Merwede quarter, an area with
high structural office vacancy?”
“Is there a significant relationship
between location characteristics and
the occurrence of structural office
vacancy in Utrecht?”
“What location characteristics are
generally believed to be related to the
causes of office vacancy, and how can
they be measured?”
“What are the problems of the
location in the Merwede quarter in
Utrecht?”
“Which and to what extent do location
characteristics increase the risk of the
occurrence of structural office vacancy
in Utrecht?”
“What kind of spatial intervention
strategies are available in order to
regenerate an urban area with a high
level of structural office vacancy?”
“What kind of urban strategies are
needed to regenerate the Merwede
quarter, an area with high structural
office vacancy?”
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
conceptual models
“What is the assumed reciprocity
between location characteristics and
structural office vacancy?”
causes of
vacancy
coping with
vacancy
12
1.5	 Research questions
Main research question
The structure of the research is to first identify which
location characteristics are increasing risk on structural
office vacancy in office districts. With that knowledge,
the next question is how to eliminate these found
factors and define an urban strategy to revitalize
an area with high vacancy rates. This results in the
following main research question:
“Which and to what extent do location characteristics
increase the risk of the occurrence of structural office
vacancy in Utrecht, and what kind of urban strategies
are needed to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an
area with high structural office vacancy?”
The main research question consists of two parts; the
first about causes of office vacancy and the second
about coping with office vacancy. This division can be
recognized in the structure of the report.
Sub research questions
To find an answer to the main questions, several sub
research questions are defined. The sub research
questions can also be distinguished as questions
regarding the causes of office vacancy, and questions
concerning how to cope with office vacancy.
“What is the assumed reciprocity between location
characteristics and structural office vacancy?”
“What location characteristics are generally believed
to be related to the causes of office vacancy, and how
can they be measured?”
“Is there a significant relationship between location
characteristics and the occurrence of structural office
vacancy in Utrecht?”
“What kind of spatial intervention strategies are
available in order to regenerate an urban area with a
high level of structural office vacancy?”
“What are the problems of the location in the Merwede
quarter in Utrecht?”
1.6	 Research design
Figure 3 outlines the main steps that were taken in
the process of working towards answering the main
research question with the sub research questions
about the causes and how to cope with office vacancy.
The main question derived from assumed reciprocity
between office vacancy and location characteristics.
Several conceptual models were formed, describing
this relationship. Based on these assumptions,
13
literature study was done concerning the causes of office vacancy. The gained information was linked back to the
conceptual models. The location characteristics which were assumed to be related to the causes of office vacancy
where measured and analysed for a significant correlation. From this analysis conclusions were drawn about the
location characteristics that increase risk on office vacancy.
The conclusions about the causes of vacancy formed the input for the literature study concerning coping with
vacancy. The factors that were mentioned in literature were analysed in the location of the Merwede quarter.
Results in this analysis led to further research in literature, and vice versa. The final step was researching by
designing: strategies were formed aimed at solving the problems with office vacancy and answering the main
question about how to cope with office vacancy.
1.7	 Final products
The research is a fully intertwined project of both Real estate  Housing as Urbanism. The final products are not
differentiated as products for one of the master tracks. There is however a distinction between the part about the
causes of structural office vacancy, which has a focus from Real estate  Housing perspective, and the part about
coping with office vacancy, which has a focus from Urbanism perspective.
Causes of vacancy
The final product is a checklist of certain location factors that incidate increasing risk on structural office vacancy.
This knowledge can be used by governments, municipalities, developers, urban designers and office user
organizations in order to prevent structural office vacancy or to respond to structural office vacancy. Assessing
the quality of a location can be improved by using the checklist, indicating what should and what should not be
integrated at a location.
Coping with vacancy
The final products are urban regeneration strategies implemented in an urban design for the Merwede quarter,
an office district within Utrecht with high structural office vacancy. The urban regeneration strategies can be
used by the stakeholders involved in that specific area or the city of Utrecht as a whole, and by governments,
municipalities, developers and urban designers as an example of how to revitalize an urban area with high
structural vacancy.
1.8	 Hypothesis
The hypothesis, concerning the cause of vacancy, was that the following location characteristics are increasing
risk on the occurrence of structural office vacancy:
•	 Poor accessibility by train
•	 Bad connection to city centre
•	 Lack of shopping and 	catering facilities
•	 Low comfort of public space
•	 Low image of the neighbourhood
•	 Unsafe neighbourhood
•	 Outdated office park type: first generation office parks
•	 Monofunctional office area
The second hypothesis, concerning how to cope with vacancy, was that eliminating (the effect) of the location
characteristics that increaserisk on structural officevacancy occurring will decreaseofficevacancy. This hypothesis
is based on the assumption that structural office vacancy is a qualitative problem.
1. Introduction
14
1.9	 Relevance
Societal
Structural vacancy is a societal problem because it creates not only property depreciation, but also overdue
maintenance, degeneration, social insecurity and a bad image, leading to downwards spiralling developments of
(office) locations (Remøy et al., 2009). Property depreciation is not limited to the vacant building; recent study
has shown that the rents of adjacent buildings drop due to vacancy of neighbouring buildings (Koppels et al.,
2011).
Moreover, vacancy represents a threat to a sustainably built environment, as new office space is added while
existing office space is already redundant. Increasing knowledge on this matter could contribute to the theory
to prevent structural office vacancy or to respond to structural office vacancy, providing a better working and/
or living environment. This theory can be used by governments, municipalities, developers, urban designers and
office user organizations.
Academic
Increasing knowledge on structural vacancy is relevant for academics in multiple ways. This research will further
develop the knowledge on the influence of location characteristics on structural office vacancy. The outcomes will
help understanding why office vacancy occurs. Locations with these characteristics could be identified as locations
with high risk on office vacancy. Furthermore, research on what spatial strategies are needed to revitalize an area
with high structural office vacancy will contribute to the knowledge of how to prevent or cope with structural
office vacancy. Societies have become more aware over the last 30 years of the growing environmental costs of
economic competition and urbanisation, and the need for more sustainable forms of development (Couch et al.,
2003). The ability to design urban areas without structural office vacancy is a step towards a sustainable built
environment, with less use of materials, less need of conversion and an enlarged lifespan of office buildings. “It
is of major importance to gain insight on the positioning of offices within the city to create an impression of the
potential for future developments of vacant offices but especially of office areas” (de Architekten Cie, 2007).
Figure 4. Office building becoming vacant in Papendorp (Architecture-buildings.com, 2012)
15
2.	 Context
The research is performed in the Dutch city of Utrecht. For the part about the causes of vacancy, the scope is
the whole city. Research about coping with vacancy is performed on a smaller scale; the Merwede quarter in
Kanaleneiland. The relevant context of the location with its surroundings is described in this chapter.
2.
The location of structurally vacant offices
Figure 5. Overview of the G4 within the Netherlands
Amsterdam
UtrechtThe Hague
Rotterdam
airport
harbour
university
Randstad
inhabitants
16
Germany
Belgium
300 km/h
160 km/h
140 km/h
130 km/h
120 km/h
 120 km/h
train station
Figure 6. Road network (adapted from Ministerie van
Infrastructuur en Milieu, 2011)
Germany
Belgium
travel time  target
travel time  target
insufficient data
Figure 7. Train network
17
2.1	 The Netherlands
Utrecht is one of the four biggest cities in the
Netherlands, complemented by Amsterdam,
Rotterdam and The Hague. These cities together are
known as the G4; the four major cities. The G4 initiated
the Big City Policy (Grotestedenbeleid) which is set out
every five years in order to improve working and living
conditions in these municipalities (Ministerie voor
Wonen Wijken en Integratie, 2012). The policy scope
was later on expanded with another 33 municipalities
named the G32. There are five fields covered in this
policy; work, education, security, quality of life and
health care (Stouten, 2010). The G4 lies within the
Randstad, the largest urban area in the Netherlands
which has the ambition to be functioning as a strong
metropolis.
Figure 4 shows an overview of the Netherlands with
special focus on the G4 within the Randstad area. The
image abstractly visualizes the amount of inhabitants,
the sizes of the universities and the main airports
and harbours. It is clearly visible that most activities
are clustered in the Randstad. Almost every large
municipality in the Randstad is positioned in a cluster
around the four major cities.
The most important international airport is positioned
southwest of Amsterdam. Although there is an
important harbour in Amsterdam as well, the most
important harbour business-wise is in Rotterdam. The
largest university is positioned in Utrecht.
Figure 6 gives an indication of the road network in the
Netherlands. Most connections are found in the same
areaofAmsterdam,Rotterdam,theHagueandUtrecht.
This image shows an integration of the research from
the government about the travel time per route. In the
region around Utrecht and Amsterdam, it indicated an
enlarged travel time due to traffic-jams. For commuter
traffic, this can generate great discomfort.
Figure 7 gives an overview of the train network in the
Netherlands and the maximum speeds per track. The
fastest track leads from the main airport via Rotterdam
to Belgium, and from there to France and the United
Kingdom. It is noticeable that Utrecht is not directly
connected to this route. However, this track is not
included in the normal public transport services
within the Netherlands, but requires an extra fee.
When looking at the included services, Utrecht and
Amsterdam are very well connected. Amsterdam has
the highest number of people entering and exiting the
trains, closely followed by Utrecht (Treinreiziger.nl,
2009). This number does not include people changing
trains, and as a central node in the Netherlands, the
station of Utrecht could well be the most used one.
2. Context
NL Amsterdam Rotterdam The Hague Utrecht
Population January 1st 2010 * 16,577,612 767,849 590,131 489,375 306,731
Jobs * 8,032,079 507,575 319,936 265,898 220,568
Office jobs *** 2,265,500 264,400 151,550 207,800 124,000
Office space in use m² LFA *** 40,899,000 5,650,000 3,869,000 5,847,000 2,950,000
Relative vacancy ** 13.7% 17.5% 12.1% 8.8% 8.3%
Average rents office space Class A €/m²/year ** € 340 € 200 € 210 € 205
Average rents office space €/m²/year *** € 143 € 198 € 137 € 138 € 138
Table 1. General information G4 *(CBS,2011) **(Gemeente
Utrecht, 2011) ***(DTZ Zadelhoff, 2011)
Figure 8. Office space in use and construction plans in the G4
(adapted from NVB, 2011)
5,650,000 m²
2,950,000 m²
3,869,000 m²
5,847,000 m²
570,000 m²
550,000 m²
1,250,000 m²
840,000 m²
new development
supply
Figure 9. Vacancy in the G4 (adapted from Gemeente Utrecht,
2011)
17.5%
12.1%
8.8% 8.3%
office space in use
vacancy
18
Of all the cities in the G4, Utrecht has the smallest
population and the least amount of jobs. Although
Utrecht has the least square meters office space,
also the lowest relative vacancy can be found there,
8.3% as opposed to the highest, Amsterdam with
17.5% (Gemeente Utrecht, 2011b). There is however
a substantial amount of development plans for new
office space which is relatively high in Utrecht, which
was expected to cause the relative vacancy to rise
largely. This phenomenon can now be confirmed, as
with a rise of supply of 13.5%, Utrecht is troubled most
of the G4 by the market conditions (NVM, 2012).
2.2	 The Utrecht region
The annual research by the Rabobank of the 40 COROP
regions, regional areas within the Netherlands, shows
that de province of Utrecht has a relatively stable
strong position (Rabobank, 2011), however not as
strong as it was before 2007. The province is part
of a group of regions with population growth above
average, a positive employment development and a
favourable business climate.
An advisory body of the European Commission has
developed a new index to demonstrate the strengths
and weaknesses of all of the 271 EU regions, to improve
the understanding of competitiveness of regional
level. In this index Utrecht comes out as number one
(Annoni and Kozovska, 2010).
Due to the growing together of the cities of Utrecht and
Nieuwegein, the market of Utrecht is highly interwoven
with the market of Nieuwegein. Despite of this fact,
Nieuwegein will not be taken into consideration in this
research since the data available on Nieuwegein is
much less comprehensive as the data of Utrecht. Other
markets that are surrounding Utrecht are Bunnik, De
Bilt, Houten, IJsselstein, Maarssen, Vianen and Zeist.
An overview of their location can be seen in figure 10.
In contrast to the situation in the nineties, there is
now an abundant supply of office space in the G4
for reasonable prices. Due to this, satellite towns
around the G4 see many companies moving back
to the cities causing vacancy rates in these satellite
Vacany
Municipality % in 2008 % in 2011
Bunnik 4.3 12.3
De Bilt 8.4 16.9
Houten 2.8 13.6
IJsselstein 17.6 18.7
Maarssen 24.3 32.3
Nieuwegein 16.8 22.7
Utrecht 7.0 8.3
Vianen 25.4 17.9
Zeist 4.3 7.1
Table 2. Relative vacancy in Utrecht and its surroundings
(adapted from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011)
Figure 10. Utrecht and its surroundings (adapted from DTZ, 2011)
Utrecht
Maarssen
Nieuwegein
IJsselstein
Vianen
Houten
Bunnik
Zeist
De Bilt
0 1 2 3 km
road
railway
water
built environment
19
towns to rise drastically (Hek et al., 2004). This can be
confirmed when looking at the vacancy rates for 2008
and 2011 in the municipalities surrounding Utrecht.
With the exception of Vianen and IJsselstein, every
municipality has a large increase in relative vacancy.
The vacancy rate in Houten has even risen from 2.8%
to 13.6% in three years. For this total region, office
vacancy has risen from 10.5% mid 2010 to 11.6% mid
2011 (Gemeente Utrecht, 2011b). This is a higher
growth than the national average. There is also large
difference between the municipalities; Maarssen has
a substantial higher vacancy percentage (32.3%) as
does Nieuwegein (22.7%). Utrecht has relatively low
vacancy, however in absolute numbers it has the most
vacant square meters.
The EIB expects the demand to rise in the province of
Utrecht until 2020, but will decline between 2020 and
2040 (EIB, 2011). This is based on a gradually declining
demand for office space per employee.
2. Context
Table 3. Overview office areas in Utrecht (adapted from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011)
Figure 11. Office districts types in Utrecht (adapted from geografiek.nl)
A27
A2
A2
A12
A12
A28
A27
Leidsche Rijn Centrum
Lage Weide
Stationsgebied
Overvecht
Binnenstad
Oost
Papendorp
Kanaleneiland
Galgenwaard
Rijnsweerd
Lunetten
highway
train station
monofunctional office area
spread offices in business district
offices in mixed environment (low density)
offices in mixed environment (high density)
A#
0 1 2 3 4 5 km
Oudenrijn
Area Total stock
m² LFA
Supply
m² LFA
Unsaleable
supply
m² LFA
Sublease
supply
m² LFA
Vacancy
m² LFA
Long term
vacancy
m² LFA
Stationsgebied 633,200 10,800 0 1,400 1,100 0
Oude Binnenstad 126,900 6,200 0 900 5,300 1,650
Papendorp 307,200 65,600 40,700 51,700 48,600 30,100
Oost 190,400 11,100 1,100 4,400 4,700 2,000
Rijnsweerd 311,050 40,400 0 10,500 20,400 5,700
Kanaleneiland 412,650 86,000 16,500 16,100 70,500 55,700
Overvecht 76,000 6,100 6,100 0 3,800 1,900
Lage Weide 163,000 35,500 16,400 0 31,200 19,950
Oudenrijn 67,900 19,800 2,900 4,000 15,800 11,850
Leidsche Rijn Centrum 18,700 0 0 0 0 0
Overig Utrecht 209,500 15,100 600 0 8,800 1,750
Total 2,552,600 297,100 82,000 89,000 210,700 122,200
20
Figure 12. Vacancy in Kanaleneiland, Papendorp and Lage
Weide
Vacancy
Area m² LFA
in 2010*
m² LFA
in 2011**
Kanaleneiland 62,200 70,500
Papendorp 59,300 48,600
Lage Weide 39,100 31,200
Rijnsweerd 20,000 20,400
Oudenrijn 21,500 15,800
Oude
Binnenstad
2,300 5,300
Oost 12,700 4,700
Overvecht 5,700 3,800
Stationsgebied 3,600 1,100
Total 230,500 210,700
Vacancy
Area m² LFA
in 2010*
m² LFA
in 2011**
Kanaleneiland 6,100 19,900
Lage Weide 10,400 12,600
Rijnsweerd 2,800 5,300
Papendorp 4,000 3,000
Oudenrijn 7,000 2,900
Overvecht 1,400 2,900
Oost 1,300 2,000
Oude
Binnenstad
1,300 800
Stationsgebied 0 0
Total 34,100 50,200
Vacancy
Area % in
2010*
% in
2011**
Oudenrijn 31.7 23.3
Lage Weide 19.6 19.1
Kanaleneiland 15.2 17.1
Papendorp 20.0 15.8
Rijnsweerd 6.4 6.6
Overvecht 7.5 5.0
Oude
Binnenstad
1.8 4.2
Oost 6.7 2.5
Stationsgebied 0.6 0.2
Total 9.1 8.3
Table 4. Absolute office vacancy
*(adapted from DTZ, 2010) **(adapted
from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011)
Table 5. Relative office vacancy
*(adapted from DTZ, 2010) **(adapted
from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011)
Table 6. Structural office vacancy
*(adapted from DTZ, 2010) **(adapted
from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011)
21
2.3	 Office areas
There are several office areas within Utrecht, and there
are several definitions of these areas. For this research,
the area definitions as defined by Geografiek will be
used as these are being used by DTZ and the Utrecht
municipality as well and the database in this research
is also from DTZ. These areas are shown in figure 11.
There are three areas which will be taken out of the
further research; Galgenwaard, Leidsche Rijn Centrum
and Oudenrijn. Leidsche Rijn Centrum is an area
which has just recently started its developments, and
Galgenwaard has such a small stock that their figures
are taken up into ‘Utrecht other’ (overig Utrecht).
Oudenrijn will not be taken into account since this area
is missing in the database of DTZ, due to the fact that it
does not belong to Utrecht in some definitions.
Relatively the highest vacancy occurs in Oudenrijn,
Lage Weide and Kanaleneiland. The range of vacancy
rates is large; from 0.2% in Oost to 23.3% in Oudenrijn.
In absolute numbers, Kanaleneiland stands out with
70,500 m² LFA office vacancy, which is even more than
the total supply of Oudenrijn.
The structural vacancy has risen from 34,100 in 2010
to 50,200 m² in 2011, which represents 23.8% of
total vacancy. The Mayor and Alderman expect that
between 50,000 and 75,000 m² of office space is
structurally vacant in Utrecht (Gemeente Utrecht,
2010a). However the amount of square meters of
unsalable offices is even higher; 82,000 m². Almost
half of that, 40,700 m², is located in Oudenrijn. There
is 122,200 m² office space which is vacant for more
than one year, which is 58,0% of total vacancy. A large
amount of this is located in Kanaleneiland; 55,700 m²
(Gemeente Utrecht, 2011b).
2. Context
Figure 13. Papendorp and Rijnsweerd
Papendorp
Type of area Monofunctional office area
Type of location Highway location
Accessibility
- Public transport Average by bus
- Car Good
Parking On-site, limited in public space
Target group ICT services, creative services,
knowledge intensive activity,
knowledge-intensive business
and financial services, medical /
pharmaceutical activities, (semi)
public services and government
Image High quality office and business
location
Jobs 14,943
Rijnsweerd
Type of area Monofunctional office area
Type of location Highway location
Accessibility
- Public transport Good by bus
- Car Good
Parking Limited on-site, limited in public
space
Target group Medium and large business and
financial services, insurance
companies, public administration and
nonprofit organizations.
Image Mostly good appearance through
quality office buildings.
Jobs 10,213
N
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 km
22
The next pages show an inventory of the office areas
in Utrecht that have been taken into account in the
research. The tables combine information about
the type of area (Geografiek, 2011) and the type of
location, accessibility, parking facilities, target group,
image and amount of jobs as characterised by Utrecht
Investment Agency (2011).
Lage Weide
Type of area Spread offices in business district
Type of location Highway location
Accessibility
- Public transport Bus
- Car Good
Parking Reasonably sufficient on-site parking,
limited in public space
Target group Midsize firms in business services,
trade, automation and utilities
Image Businesses with office space mainly
manufacturing and distribution, the
most representative modern part
located along the A2
Jobs 19,707
Figure 14. Kanaleneiland, Oudenrijn and Stationsgebied
Kanaleneiland
Type of area Mixed environment high density
Type of location Highway location
Accessibility
- Public transport Good; express tram
- Car Good
Parking Sufficient parking, free
Target group Business services, public
administration, automation
Image Functional office buildings, most
mixed with other functions
Jobs 20,812
Stationsgebied
Type of area Mixed environment high density
Type of location Inner city and train station location
Accessibility
- Public transport Good, public transport hub
- Car Excellent
Parking Extensive public car parks
Target group Mainly large offices of banks,
insurance companies, business
services, transportation and non-
profit organizations
Image Metropolitan centre environment with
many facilities
Jobs 30,416
N
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 km
232. Context
Figure 15. Binnenstad, Oost and Overvecht
Overvecht
Type of area Mixed environment low density
Type of location Train station location
Accessibility
- Public transport Good
- Car Average to good
Parking Limited on-site parking, extensive
public parking
Target group Medium to large offices of
social organizations, trade and
transportation
Image Small office clusters across the area,
partly (renovated) old buildings and
partly representative new buildings
Jobs 13,461
Oost
Type of area Mixed environment low density
Type of location East of city centre
Accessibility
- Public transport Moderate
- Car Average to good
Parking Partly on-site, paid public parking,
partly underground
Target group High profiled businesses
Image Historical offices in old luxury
mansions and villas
Jobs
Binnenstad
Type of area Mixed environment low density
Type of location Inner city location
Accessibility
- Public transport Good
- Car Average
Parking Paid public parking
Target group High profiled businesses
Image Historical offices
Jobs
N
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 km
24
Figure 16. Birds eye view Papendorp (Bing, 2012) Figure 17. Birds eye view Stationsgebied (Bing, 2012)
Figure 18. Birds eye view Rijnsweerd (Bing, 2012) Figure 19. Birds eye view Binnenstad (Bing, 2012)
Figure 20. Birds eye view Kanaleneiland (Bing, 2012) Figure 21. Birds eye view Oost (Bing, 2012)
Figure 22. Birds eye view Lage Weide (Bing, 2012) Figure 23. Birds eye view Overvecht (Bing, 2012)
252. Context
Table 7. Plans new office space in Utrecht (adapted from
Gemeente Utrecht, 2011)
Certain Probable Uncertain Total
Year m² GFA m² GFA m² GFA m² GFA
2011 40,000 0 0 40,000
2012 8,000 0 8,000 16,000
2013 23,000 0 0 23,000
2014 73,500 7,000 43,000 123,500
2015+ 13,200 152,700 300,800 466,700
Total 117,700 159,700 351,800 669,200
Figure 24. Current and future supply office districts in Utrecht (adapted from geografiek.nl)
Leidsche Rijn Centrum
Lage Weide
Stationsgebied
Overvecht
Binnenstad
Oost
Papendorp
Kanaleneiland
Galgenwaard
Rijnsweerd
Lunetten
Oudenrijn
new development
supply
0 1 2 3 4 5 km
26
In spite of the high percentage of vacancy, still
new plans are being developed. The plans for new
development comprise 721,600 m² in total. This is as
much as 28.3% of the total office supply in Utrecht
(2,552,500 m²). Even with subtracting the plans which
are still uncertain, 327,300 m² of new developments
remain, which is still 12,8% of the current stock.
The development plans focuses in a few areas.
Leidsche Rijn Centrum, as mentioned, is in total a new
development area. The addition to the current stock is
planned in Papendorp, Stationsgebied, Galgenwaard,
Oudenrijn and Kanaleneiland. New developments
in Stationsgebied is perhaps least surprising since
vacancy rates are only 0.2%. Papendorp however has
a vacancy rate of 15.8% and has large development
plans.
As a response, the municipality has put a stop to
some of the development plans (Vastgoedmarkt,
2011). Locations that are still up for development are
Stationsgebied, Leidsche Rijn Centrum and Papendorp.
Figure 25. Position Kanaleneiland in Utrecht (adapted from geografiek.nl)
A27
A2
A2
A12
A12
A28
A27
Leidsche Rijn Centrum
Lage Weide
Stationsgebied
Overvecht
Binnenstad
Oost
Papendorp
Kanaleneiland
Merwedekwartier
Galgenwaard
Rijnsweerd
Lunetten
highway
train station
A#
0 1 2 3 4 5 km
Oudenrijn
27
2.4	 Kanaleneiland
The focus area for urban regeneration is the Merwede quarter, a part of Kanaleneiland. Kanaleneiland is officially
an island located in the South West of Utrecht (see figure 25) and is surrounded by the ‘Amsterdam-Rijn Canal’
and the ‘Merwede Canal’. Kanaleneiland is however considered smaller, located between these canals but limited
by the ‘Leidsche Rijn’ and the A12 highway. Kanaleneiland is positioned fairly centrally in Utrecht, North-East of
Kanaleneiland is the inner city.
The support for urban regeneration in this area can be considered quite large. This area has the highest amount
of vacant square meters office space in the whole of Utrecht. Problems in this area are not only in terms of
office vacancy; the government pointed it out as one of the 40 areas in the Netherlands most desperately in
need of improvement on social, physical and economic level. Moreover, the position within the city has changed
drastically due to the growing of Utrecht over time. Support for improvement of the position of Kanaleneiland
can be expected from different angles. A step by step analysis of Kanaleneiland and the Merwede quarter is
described in chapter 7.
2. Context
28
PartII
causesof
vacancy
Figure 26. Office space with vacancy in the Merwede quarter
29
3.	 Theoretical framework
To efficiently provide solutions to the problem of vacancy, it is necessary to understand how vacancy occurs.
This chapter outlines the theoretical framework that is related to the causes of office vacancy. The theoretical
framework forms the basis for the empirical chapter in this part of the thesis. Two sub questions that are being
addressed in this chapter are: ““What is the assumed reciprocity between location characteristics and structural
office vacancy?” and “What location characteristics are generally believed to be related to the causes of office
vacancy, and how can they be measured?”.
3.
The location of structurally vacant offices
Figure 27. Reasons for vacancy
Qualitative
Quantitative
demand
supply
time
m²
m²/employee
time
quality
time
A
B
C
Spatial fix
Relocation
Quality standards
Building quality
Surplus
Hog cycle
User demands
Location quality
time
m²
time
m²
30
3.1	 Mismatch
A surplus in a market is not something new. There are
several issues which can cause vacancy to rise and are
all playing a role in current developments; these are
(Hek et al., 2004):
•	 Friction
•	 Cycles
•	 Quality standards
•	 Changing user demands
•	 Building quality
•	 Location quality
When looking closely at these causes, they can be
categorized in quantitative and qualitative aspects
and supplemented by two missing aspects; surplus
production and spatial fix.
Quantitative
A higher vacancy percentage than usual can be
explained by cyclical vacancy. The phenomenon
of cyclical fluctuations of surpluses and deficits is
described by the ‘hog cycle’; new buildings are being
constructed when demand is high due to deficits but
when finished years later this suddenly large supply
leads to surpluses in the market. Demand then
declines, leading to low construction activities, which
creates deficits in the market. The cycle starts all over
again.
Somewhat different than cyclical fluctuations is surplus
production. In the last few decades, there has been a
steady surplus of office production in the Netherlands.
This surplus production comes in two forms, the first
being general surplus production in a geographically
determined market, for instance a country or a city.
The second type of surplus production on a specific
location, caused by the ‘spatial fix’ (Harvey, 2001),
caused by difference in insights for geographic answers
to demand in certain times. This phenomenon is widely
confirmed in the Netherlands by the large differences
in vacancy within cities between one location and
another.
There are also societal and economic changes that
affect the user demand. This is what is happening
currently because of the economic crisis. Worldwide
changes in the economy have largely influenced
the real estate market. In the Netherlands there are
currently a little less than 2.3 million office jobs (DTZ
Zadelhoff, 2011). This implies an average of about
18 m² LFA office space per employee. Due to the
recession, the amount of office jobs declined with 1.4%
in 2009, leading to a declined demand for office space
(ANP, 2010a). The decline of office jobs also leads to
an increase of hidden vacancy, since offices are still
officially rented but are not being used. Another large
Future supply
Current demand
Current supply
AlternativesFuture match
Step by step plan
Current match
Future demand
Figure 28. DAS frame (adapted from De Jonge et al., 2009)
31
influence is the societal change of ´the new way of working´, which ensures that companies can cope with less
office space. Although no single definition of the new way of working is available, the most common definition
is enabling employees to work time and location independently. It is seen as a more efficient way of working; at
lower costs and with higher yields and more enjoyable for employees. A Dutch national office market research
revealed that 100% of office users expect that their company will use the same amount or less office space in the
future (Twynstra Gudde, 2010). Reduction of office space between 30% and 50% can be achieved by reducing
the number of workstations (factor 1.1 to 0.7 per FTE on average) and reduction in storage space due to file
digitalisation (ING Economisch Bureau, 2011). Currently there is already more than 14% office vacancy in the
Netherlands (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2012), but the ING outlines three scenarios in order to get an impression of what
the effect of the new way of working on vacancy in the office market could be in 2030. The first scenario shows
a decline of another 3 million m² office use only due to the rise in the ageing population. The second scenario
foresees 25% of the companies adapting the new way of working, resulting in a decrease of 10% office space in
use, bringing total vacancy to 10 million m²; 22% of the office space. The third scenario assumes that every office
organization will implement the new way of working. This will result in an additional 16 million m² office vacancy,
bringing the total to 22 million m², or 48% of the total office space.
In what is considered a normal functioning market, a vacancy percentage of between 4 and 5% is necessary to
offer space for companies to move between buildings, which is called frictional vacancy (Hek et al., 2004). This
vacancy ought to be occurring up to a maximum of one year after the expiry of the last rental agreement (Keeris
and Koppels, 2006).
Qualitative
Due to all before mentioned aspects, the question of what buildings become vacant can be explained to a certain
degree by the quality of the building and the location.
Because of technological developments, quality standards are bound to change. The demand changes along at
the same speed as the developments do, causing office users to raise their requirements over time. Old buildings
can therefore be obsolete in a short amount of time.
If either the building or the location cannot meet the demands of office users, they will leave the building
eventually in search of a building that better meets their requirements. Even though vacancy rates are this high,
the problem is enlarged by new office space still being developed.
DAS frame
The ‘DAS’ (Designing an Accommodation Strategy) framework has been designed to facilitate the accommodation
strategy design process (de Jonge et al., 2009). This framework (figure 28) shows how office user organizations
evaluate the current match between demand and supply and how to determine the future match. The process is
iterative, when the match is not satisfying, other solutions can be searched for in the supply, or the demand can
be changed. This implies that when an office building is being used, it will only stay in use when the building keeps
meeting the demands of the office user and no better alternative is available.
3. Theoretical framework
Figure 29. Schematic view mismatch demand and supply
Figure 30. Conceptual model macro level
Demand
Supply
cause
• m²
• m²
• building
• location
• building
• location
Quantitative
Qualitative
Vacancy
Quantitative
mismatch
Qualitative
mismatch
Market
Building - Location
Quantitative
Hog cycle
Relocation
Surplus
Qualitative
Spatial fix
Quality standards
User demands
Building quality
Location quality
Quantitative
Qualitative
32
Space market
This research focusses on the location (and building)
characteristics of these existing buildings in order to
understand which locations have increased odds to
become vacant. Office vacancy is caused by a mismatch
between demand and supply, both quantitatively as
qualitatively. Quantitative mismatch is caused by the
market approached from a space market point of view;
a geographically determined office space market. In
this market, quantitative demand mainly derives from
office employment and the office user’s floor space-to-
workers ratio (Muijderman, 2010). Next to the fact that
there is a surplus in the market causing vacancy, the
qualitative factors influence what buildings become
vacant. Qualitative mismatch is caused by building and
location characteristics. As the schematic view of the
mismatch shows; there is a mismatch in the quantity
of the buildings, the building itself and the location of
the building, therefore the supply does not meet the
demand.
Conceptual model macro level
The conceptual model shows my perception of why
vacancy occurs at macro level at this moment. There
is a mismatch between demand and supply, both
quantitatively and qualitatively. The supply is much
larger than demand, which is a hard boundary. This
causes many square meters to become vacant. Which
square meters become vacant is mainly decided by the
qualitative characteristics of the supply. Buildings that
do not meet the demand building-wise and location-
wise are the first to become vacant. The conceptual
model shows this is not a hard boundary. There are
also buildings in use which do not (fully) meet the
demands of users. This is one of the main reasons
why new buildings are still being developed. This can
be explained by the fact that 40% of vacant offices is
obsolete and not properly to be used as an office any
more (Garschagen, 2008). Most of new build offices
are rented from the start, future vacancy can therefore
be found mainly in currently existing stock (Korteweg
in Garschagen, 2008). The development of new buildings can cause the existing buildings that do not meet the
users requirements to become vacant due to the continuous evaluation of the match between demand and
supply. Another reason for new development is that many land developments are already set in progress, which
involves binding contracts for development. Investment demands can also play a role, investors invest in real
estate on large scale due to the expected greater profits than shares, which can lead to overinvestment.
3.2	 Location characteristics
Much research has been performed considering which location factors increase risk on office vacancy. For this
research, the selection of other studies taken into account has been brought back to four, based on my perception
of the significance of the studies. The graduation study of De Vrij (2004) is taken into account due to the basis
that it has established for the ‘conversion potential meter’. Geraedts and Van der Voordt (2004) have created an
instrument for defining the lower end of the office premises market in ‘Good buildings drive out bad buildings’,
which is included in the selection. ‘Out of office’ is the PhD thesis of Remøy (2010) in which she studies, amongst
other things, the cause of office vacancy. The final included research is the study of Hegeman (2011) which was
the most recent study on the relation between a building and office users at the start of this research.
Table 8. Overview researches
Research
Transformatiepoten-
tie: meten is weten
Good buildings drive
out bad buildings
Out of Office De kantoorgebruiker
en zijn pand
Category Factor De Vrij (2004) Geraedts and Van
der Voordt (2004)
Remøy (2010) Hegeman (2011)
Accessibility Car x x x x
Airport x x
Train x x x x
Metro x x x x
Tram x x x x
Bus x x x x
Facilities Catering x x x x
Education x
General x
Medical x
Parking x x x x
Recreation x
Shops x x x x
Sports x
Public space Furniture x
Green x x x
Park x x
Pavement x x
Square x x
Street type x
View x x
Water x
Prestige Filthiness x
Graffiti x
Image x x x
Safety x x x
Undesirables x
Vandalism x
Functionality Area x x
Finance x x
Housing x x x x
Employment x x x
Vacancy x x
Environment Noise x x x
Odour x x x
Shadow x x
Soil x
View x
Wind x
33
There are several ways of looking at a location. Table 8 gives an overview of what location factors these researchers
considered during their study. To make them comparable, the definitions used by the researchers for the location
category and location factor are redefined.
3. Theoretical framework
Figure 31. Conceptual model meso level
Location
FunctionalityPrestige
Public spaceFacilitiesAccessibility
Environment
Building
Characteristics
34
Cause meso level
The categories from research form the input for the
conceptual model on meso level (figure 31). It is
assumed that depending on the outcome of these
six categories, the location can have a match or a
mismatch between demand and supply.
This table does not give an overview about the
measurement of a location factor. Even though
researchers may look at the same location factors,
there are large differences between their definitions.
For instance, while all researchers look at accessibility
by car, some might look at travel time, others at travel
distance, and even others at congestion or clearness
of the route. An overview of these measurements per
research can be found in appendix III.
In the next section the chosen factors will be
elaborated upon. Location factors which have been
proven to be significantly correlated with structural
office vacancy or that are used by more than half the
amount of researchers are taken into account. How to
measure them is elaborated upon. Other factors are
also introduced based on new insights or theory.
3.2.1	 Accessibility
There is much consensus about what factors to study
in terms of accessibility. All researchers clearly indicate
accessibility as an important and elaborated category.
Accessibility factors included in the research
•	 Car
•	 Train
•	 Tram
•	 Bus
•	 Modality
•	 City centre
Car, airport, train, metro, tram and bus
All the researchers (De Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010) take
accessibility by car, train, tram and bus into account. A way of making a clear distinction between these types
of transport is by categorizing them by their reach; international, inter-urban and intra-urban. International
accessibility is provided by airplane. There are only two researchers looking at accessibility of the airport. Since
the nearest international airport is Schiphol Amsterdam Airport, which is almost 50 kilometres away from
Utrecht, the difference in travel time to the airport shall not differ very much from one location to the other.
Therefore this is not a relevant fact for the research and will not be taken into account. Inter-urban accessibility
is formed by transport between cities; which included car and train transport and could possible include metro
and tram. Accessibility by metro is also being investigated by many researchers, however since there is no metro
line available in Utrecht, this factor will not be taken into account. There is a tramline available in Utrecht, which
functions as a fast connection between Utrecht and Nieuwegein, therefore it is included in the research as inter-
urban transport. The final category is intra-urban transport, consisting of only the bus.
The methods to measure these factors differ between researchers. What is actually measured is the relative and
the absolute distance. Relative distance is measured by the time it takes to travel from A to B. Absolute distance
is measured as the crow flies. The preferred method would be to use relative distance, estimating the travel time
taking into account congestion, which occurs often around offices at peak hours. Due to the unavailability of
the maximum speed limits and congestion in a database, this is not possible. Absolute distance is not accurate
enough, since as the crow flies is not a realistic definition of the route that has to be taken in a city. As an
alternative, the travel distance is measured, operationalized by the actual route in meter between point A and B.
Figure 32. Modality (Goudappel Coffeng  DTZ, 2011)
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Bunnik
Houten
Vleuten
Maarssen
Breukelen
Bilthoven
Utrecht Zuilen
Houten Castellum
Utrecht Terwijde
Utrecht Lunetten
Utrecht Overvecht
Hollandsche Rading
Utrecht Leidsche Rijn
Utrecht Vaartsche Rijn
Best bereikbare gebieden per vervoerwijze
all other values
12
21
ad
d
dsa
fds
fsd
Zwaanshoek
Zwaanshoek
N205 Lisse
N208 Lisse
-
Figure 33. Fragment of three order analysis of Haarlem (de
Bois, 2010)
35
Modality
Goudappel Coffeng developed an accessibility map of
Utrecht together with DTZ (Goudappel Coffeng and
DTZ, 2011). For this they calculated for every postal
code area within the region of Utrecht, how many
people can access the locations within an acceptable
travelling time. This is done for every modality, where
travel time by car is acceptable within 45 minutes,
travelling time by public transport is 30 minutes and
travel time by bicycle is 20 minutes. This generates
a score for every location, which can be understood
as a score for labour accessibility. The map (figure
32) shows the location and the type(s) of transport
by which they are best accessible. They define a link
between modality and office vacancy. Modality is
taken into account for the research. There are seven
predefined categories; (1) car, (2) public transport, (3)
bicycle, (4) car/public transport, (5) car/bicycle, (6)
public transport/bicycle and (7) car/public transport/
bicycle.
City centre
Peter de Bois developed a method to test the
cohesion of the network of the city based on cognitive
psychology, the ability to understand the city network
(De Bois, 2011). This method, the three order
method, talks about anchor points; important areas
or destinations in the city (usually the city centre),
and their connection to the rest of the city within
three steps or orders. Each step represents a change
in direction. The connections are expressed in the
fit between anchor points and patterns. The author
states that if the cohesion requires more than 3 orders,
this suggest a poor condition for social economic
investments. “The essence of a vital city is the fit
between the system of travelling and staying, between
the physical system which due to its cohesion acts as
a good urban frame, and the economic system which
due to its vitality acts as a good system of anchor points
and patterns. It offers the possibility to identify areas,
linked to individual and collective circuits, and outline
the framework for social cohesion and urban quality” (De Bois, 2011). This method suggests that the better the
frame the city, the better that city will be used. The method is applied as follows. First an area as starting point
has to be defined, of which the cohesion is to be analysed. The other areas that need to be defined are the
anchor points, the important areas or destinations. Then the three orders can be distinguished. To the first order
belong the main roads that cross or touch the starting area. To the second order belong the roads that connect
with the first order roads. To the third order belong the roads that connect with the second order roads. When
the destination area, the anchor points, are connected to the circuit within this three orders, this means that
the frame of the city facilitates these destination areas well. The example in figure 33 shows part of a research
conducted in Haarlem. Here the eastern city limit is taken as starting point (the red line). The first order is drawn
with a black continuous line, the second order with a black dotted line. The anchor points are the coloured dots.
The image shows how the city limit is connected to the anchor points of the city within two orders.
As De Bois links economic investments to these three orders, this is incorporated in the research. In a recent study
DTZ states that cities with a historic city centre have higher odds not to become vacant (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2013). The
factor is measured by the connectivity of the urban fabric to the historic centre, which is the main destination.
There are two possible outcomes; (1) accessible within three orders and (2) not accessible within three orders.
3. Theoretical framework
verhouding parkeren =
verhuurbaar vloeroppervlak
aantal parkeerplaatsen
Figure 34. Parking measurement ratio
36
3.2.2	 Facilities
From the eight facility factors which are being measured by researchers, three are being measured by more than
half. These are parking facilities, catering facilities and shops.
Facility factors included in the research
•	 Parking
•	 Catering
•	 Shops
Parking
Parking facilities are measured by all researchers (De
Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der
Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010). The ratio between parking
space and office space gives an indication of how well
car parking is being facilitated, which is a method used
in most research. Therefore the ratio LFA/parking place
is measured. Another proven method of measuring
parking is by making a distinction between on- and
off-site parking, and parking on street level or stacked
parking (Cutter and DeWoody, 2010). From theory
one would expect that offices with on-site parking are
structurally vacant more often than offices with off-
site parking. This is what is stated in the investigation
of Cutter and DeWoody (2010) who state that nearby
off-site parking is positively associated with property
prices.
Catering, shops
Catering and shop facilities, measured in all of the studies (De Vrij, 2004, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004,
Hegeman, 2011, Remøy, 2010) can also be defined as worker amenities. These facilities are available in a
database by Locatus. This database has not been made available for the research, instead Locatus researched
the catering and shopping facilities within a distance of 500 meter for all of the office buildings in the dataset.
Locatus measures these by the as the crow flies-method or absolute distance. The facilities measured in the
category catering are: cafés, restaurants and café-restaurants. The facilities measured in shops are shops for
daily necessities: supermarkets and minimarkets. The distance of 500 meter is taken for this is assumed to be the
maximum distance people are willing to walk.
3.2.3	 Public space
Although in all of the four studies (Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010, De Vrij,
2004) a category of public space is incorporated, only one the location factors is used by more than half the
researchers. This indicates that the general opinion is that public space has influence on the well-functioning
of an area, but that it is unclear what is important about that public space. The amount of square meter public
green, used by three researchers (Hegeman, 2011, Remøy, 2010, De Vrij, 2004), can give an indication of how well
public space is provided for and will be incorporated in the research. This does however leave out paved public
space. Therefore other factors are introduced in this category.
Public space factors
•	 Green
•	 Type of public space
•	 Assessment public space
o	 Protection
o	 Comfort
o	 Enjoyment
Figure 35. Types of space (adapted from Gehl, 2006)
Urban stroll ways
Transport hubs
Local city space
Staged city space
Ceremonial city space
Aquatic city space
Space for play and sport
Main city space
Green city space
Secluded city space
Temporary city space
Deserted city space
Waterfront city space
37
Green
Public green is reported in WistUdata (Gemeente
Utrecht, 2012c) and is measured by the amount
of square meter within the areas as defined by the
municipality.
Type of public space
It is possible to make subdivisions in public space by
their type. ‘New city life’ (Gehl, 2006) talks about
thirteen types of (public) space, in which the public
space within a visible distance is categorized.
•	 (1) Urban stroll ways
Boulevards, avenues, streets and byways where
directional movement is the key.
•	 (2) Main city space
The main squares of the city or district, space that
frames many different events.
•	 (3) Local city space
Space that primarily serves local users and
incorporates playing and staying.
•	 (4) Secluded city space
Location and design offer fewer options, simple
furniture for staying perhaps.
•	 (5) Ceremonial city space
Often a formal forecourt for seats of power, space
used for celebrations, ceremonies and cheering
crowds.
•	 (6) Deserted city space
Space featuring large surfaces with few activities
and buildings with few entrances.
•	 (7) Transport hubs
Space dominated by people in transit, going about
their daily activities and errands.
•	 (8) Green city space
City parks and urban oases, a framework for
recreation from sunbathing to sport.
•	 (9) Staged city space
Space with carefully planned design elements to
create special, primarily sensory experiences.
•	 (10) Temporary city space
Space intended for temporary use, often on land
planned for other purposes.
•	 (11) Aquatic city space
With water the dominant surface, this space often
creates identity in the city scene and offers various
activities on and in the water.
•	 (12) Waterfront city space
Access to and view of the water give these spaces
added value and a myriad of possible activities.
•	 (13) City space for play and sport
Designed for activities that require permanent
specialized equipment.
3. Theoretical framework
traffic
walk stand sit
see talk play
scale climate
crime
sensory
experiences
sensory
experiences
Good
Average
Poor
protectionenjoymentcomfort
Figure 36. Quality criteria (adapted from Gehl, 2006)
38
Assessment public space
Gehl also gives some interesting perspectives of
what three categories to look at when looking at the
environment; protection, comfort and enjoyment
(Gehl, 2006). The urban space can be rated for the
ability to provide protection within three categories;
(1) traffic, (2) crime and (3) sensory experiences. The
urban space can be rated for the ability to provide
comfort within six categories; (1) walk, (2) stand, (3)
sit, (4) see, (5) talk and (6) play. The urban space can
be rated for the ability to provide enjoyment within
three categories; (1) scale, (2) climate and (3) sensory
experiences.
This method offers the option to rate public space
elements as (1) poor, (2) average and (3) good, giving
a total score of between 3-9 points for protection,
between 6-18 points for comfort and between 3-9
points for enjoyment. The public space total is a score
between 12 and 36 points. The absence of some of these elements could lead to not meeting the demands of
office users, therefore leading to higher vacancy. Public space within visible distance is assessed on these factors.
3.2.4	 Prestige
Since all four researchers (De Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010)
mention prestige in their research, factors of prestige will be incorporated and tested in the research. Since
prestige is difficult to operationalize, some proxies for prestige are taken into account. Prestige has two factors
which are being used by more than half the researchers, which are image and safety.
Prestige factors included in the research
•	 Image rating
•	 Safety
•	 Vandalism
•	 Criminality
•	 Traffic problems
•	 Public space problems
•	 Liveability
Image rating
The image is monitored by the municipality of Utrecht (Gemeente Utrecht, 2012c) by calculating the average
grade on a scale from zero to ten given by the inhabitants to their sub district. This factor comes closest to
measuring prestige, in contrast to the other factors which are proxies for prestige. This factor is studied in three
of the studies (De Vrij, 2004, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Hegeman, 2011)
Safety, vandalism, criminality
There is an objective and subjective side to safety. Figures on objective safety include number of offenses,
vandalism and victims. Subjective safety is about the feeling of security. Both types can go hand in hand, but
not necessarily. People may feel perfectly safe in a neighbourhood where other people might not dare to go. A
feeling of safety can be increased by the familiarity of a neighbourhood (Ouwehand et al., 2008). The data from
the municipality (Gemeente Utrecht, 2012c) is obtained. Safety is investigated in three of the four studies (De
Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Remøy, 2010). Safety is measured by the percentage of respondents that feel unsafe
often in their sub district. Vandalism and criminality are both measured by the permillage of registered incidents
per 1,000 inhabitants plus employees.
Traffic problems, public space problems
Another indicator could be the problems that arises in areas. Instead of measuring accessibility by car and the
quality of the public space, figures from the municipality (Gemeente Utrecht, 2012c) are used to indicate the
opinion about these matters, measured by the percentage of respondents that indicate problems in their area.
Figure 37. Liveability in Utrecht (RIGO, 2012)
39
Liveability
RIGO developed maps which show the liveability for all
living environments within the Netherlands, called the
‘Leefbaarometer’ (RIGO Research en Advies, 2012).
This tool predicts the satisfaction of inhabitants in
relation to their direct living environment. The same
satisfaction could apply to the office users in these
areas. The possible scores are: (1) very negative, (2)
negative, (3) moderate, (4) moderately positive, (5)
positive, (6) very positive and (7) excellent.
3.2.5	 Functionality
There are two location factors that are being
researched by at least half the researchers. These are
housing (De Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and
Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010) and employment
(Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004,
Remøy, 2010). Other ways of defining the functionality
of an area can be described as the type of office
location and the mix of functions.
Functionality factors included in the research
•	 Housing
•	 Employment
•	 Type of location
•	 Mix of functions
Housing
Functionality talks about the different kinds of functions in an area, specifically housing and offices, and the
amount of square meters assigned to these functions. The available data from the municipality (Gemeente
Utrecht, 2012c) is about housing; the average size in square meter per dwelling in the area and the total amount
of dwellings in an area.
Employment
Employment talks about employment in an area; the amount of jobs or more specifically the amount of office
jobs. In this research employment is measured by the total number of jobs in an area (Gemeente Utrecht, 2012c),
due to the unavailability of specifically the amount of office jobs.
Type of location
One method of looking at the location is to define types of locations focusing on the context. The Dutch firm
Architekten Cie distinguishes six different types of office locations (de Architekten Cie, 2007);
(1) Historical
Historic buildings of modest scale in mixed centre environments, usually positioned on canals. Usually
appointed monument and part of a conservation area. Building period between 1900-1920.
(2) Pre modern
First buildings of larger size and new construction methods. Mostly related to historical centre environments.
Often built in locations where 18th and 19th century building blocks are demolished, for example for traffic
breakthroughs in the 30s and 40s. Building period between 1920-1940.
(3) Businesses/offices
First city expansion according to the functionalist urbanism. Autonomous work areas near the city, accessible
from by and constricted in green areas. Classification of businesses and offices. Building period between
1940-1960.
3. Theoretical framework
Figure 38. Overview office environments (adapted from
Architekten Cie, 2007)
historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920
bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960
2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000
8
historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920
bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960
2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000
8
historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920
bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960
2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000
8
historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920
bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960
2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000
8
historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920
bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960
2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000
8
historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920
bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960
2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000
8
Historical
Businesses/offices
Second generation parks
Pre modern
First generation parks
All inclusive environment
40
(4) First generation office park
Evolved locations specialized in offices. The
structure is similar to post-war housing estates.
Greenery and an all-round development.
Accessibility by road. Visibility from the highway
begins to be an issue. Building period between
1960-1980.
(5) Second generation office park
Multimodal accessibility from road and rail is
important. Areas are developed between station
and highway exit. The visibility from the road and
traffic flows are increasingly important. Building
period between 1980-2000.
(6) All-inclusive environment
Development of new urban centre environments
in high densities in the vicinity of the historic
city is a new challenge. Housing, employment
and facilities in a balanced urban mix together.
Building period between 2000-now.
Mix of functions
Geografiek defines four different types of office
locations measured by their mix of functions
(Geografiek, 2011). The four different types are: (1)
monofunctional office area, (2) spread offices in
business district, (3) Offices in mixed environment -
low density and (4) Offices in mixed environment - high
density.
3.2.6	 Environment
There are six factors indicated in the category environment, but only two that are being researched in more than
half the researchers. Both noise and odour are taken into account by three of the four researchers (De Vrij, 2004,
Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004). Figures about odour, shadow, soil, view and wind are not
available, leaving only noise.
Environment factor included in the research
•	 Noise
Noise
Noise pollution can have an influence on the wellbeing of people in an area. Noise levels that were being measured
are those caused by car traffic or by trains (Gemeente Utrecht, 2006). There were six predefined categories; (1) 
55 dB, (2) 55-59 dB, (3) 60-64 dB, (4) 65-69 dB, (5) 70-74 dB and (6)  74 dB.
3.3	 Building characteristics
The building quality plays a large role as well as the location quality. In a recent study Remøy investigated the
link between building characteristics with structural office vacancy (Remøy, 2010). This study revealed that
structurally vacant offices:
•	 were constructed between 1980 and 1995
•	 are functionally obsolete (inefficient and inflexible)
•	 have glass façades
•	 have a low quality interior appearance
•	 are in technical decay
Ideally, all these characteristics would be incorporated in this research, to rule out that an office building is
structurally vacant because of the building’s characteristics. However due to the limitation in time, the functional
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)
The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)

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The location of structurally vacant offices (thesis)

  • 1. the location of structurally vacant offices The link between location characteristics and structural office vacancy in Utrecht, and how to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an area with high office vacancy Delft University of Technology Master thesis in Architecture, Urbanism & Building Science Reinier van Wingerden January 2013
  • 2. ii Title The location of structurally vacant offices Subtitle The link between location characteristics and structural office vacancy in Utrecht, and how to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an area with high office vacancy Cover View on Kanaleneiland (adapted from Bing, 2012) Personalia Reinier van Wingerden Student number: B1274074 Address: Bagijnhof 71, 2611 AN Delft Telephone: +31 (0)6 470 841 57 E-mail: r.vanwingerden@quicknet.nl Delft University of Technology MSc in Architecture, Urbanism & Building Science Faculty of Architecture Address: Julianalaan 134, 2628 BL Delft Telephone: +31 (0)15 278 9805 E-mail: info@tudelft.nl Department of Real estate & Housing Real Estate Management lab Coordinator: Dr. Ir. D.J.M. van der Voordt Main mentor: Dr. Ir. H.T. Remøy Second mentor: Drs. P.W. Koppels Department of Urbanism Urban Regeneration lab Coordinator: Dr. Ir. P.L.M. Stouten Main mentor: Dr. Ir. P.L.M. Stouten Second mentor: Ir. L.P.J. van den Burg OfficeUp Graduation company Address: Regulierenring 35, 3981 LA Bunnik Telephone: +31 (0)30 659 8414 E-mail: info@officeup.nl Mentor: Ir. R.G. Muller Delft, January 16th 2013 the location of structurally vacant offices The link between location characteristics and structural office vacancy in Utrecht, and how to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an area with high office vacancy Delft University of Technology Master thesis in Architecture, Urbanism & Building Science Reinier van Wingerden January 2013
  • 3. iii Contents Preface������������������������������������������������������� iv Abstract������������������������������������������������������ 1 Part I Introduction 1..Introduction���������������������������������������������� 9 1.1 Problem statement 10 1.2 Stakeholders 10 1.3 Location 11 1.4 Aim 11 1.5 Research questions 12 1.6 Research design 12 1.7 Final products 13 1.8 Hypothesis 13 1.9 Relevance 14 2..Context�������������������������������������������������� 15 2.1 The Netherlands 17 2.2 The Utrecht region 18 2.3 Office areas 21 2.4 Kanaleneiland 27 Part II causes of vacancy 3..Theoretical framework����������������������������� 29 3.1 Mismatch 30 3.2 Location characteristics 32 3.2.1 Accessibility 34 3.2.2 Facilities 36 3.2.3 Public space 36 3.2.4 Prestige 38 3.2.5 Functionality 39 3.2.6 Environment 40 3.3 Building characteristics 40 3.4 Overview 42 3.5 Conclusions 44 4..Empirical������������������������������������������������ 45 4.1 Data collection 46 4.2 Descriptive statistics 48 4.3 Exploratory data analysis 50 4.3.1 Accessibility 53 4.3.2 Facilities 59 4.3.3 Public space 61 4.3.4 Prestige 65 4.3.5 Functionality 72 4.3.6 Environment 76 4.3.7 Building 77 4.4 Multi-collinearity 80 4.5 Explanatory analysis 80 4.5.1 Logistic regression 80 4.5.2 Regression model 81 4.6 Conclusions 84 5..Conclusions cause����������������������������������� 85 5.1 Conclusions 85 5.2 Remarks 87 5.3 Accessibility of data 87 Part III coping with vacancy 6..Theoretical framework����������������������������� 89 6.1 Interventions 90 6.2 Functions 94 6.3 Conclusions 96 7..Location analysis������������������������������������� 97 7.1 Kanaleneiland 99 7.1.1 Historical development 99 7.1.2 Design 105 7.1.3 Deprivation 105 7.1.4 Office vacancy 106 7.2 Merwede quarter 106 7.2.1 Causes location 108 7.2.2 Exploratory factors location 111 7.2.3 Inventory buildings 111 7.2.4 Causes building 112 7.2.5 Surrounding areas 118 7.2.6 Developments 118 7.3 Conclusions 121 8..Urban regeneration��������������������������������123 8.1 Current situation 124 8.2 Strategies 125 8.2.1 Merwede mixed environment 126 8.2.2 Facilitating centre 133 8.2.3 Claiming the public space 140 8.2.4 Implementation 147 8.2.5 Final outcome 148 8.3 Conclusions 150 9..Conclusions�������������������������������������������151 9.1 Conclusions 151 9.2 Remarks 151 Part IV conclusions 10..... Overall conclusions���������������������������154 10.1 Research findings 154 10.1.1 Causes of vacancy 154 10.1.2 Coping with vacancy 154 10.2 Implications for practice 154 10.3 Further research 155 10.3.1 Causes of vacancy 155 10.3.2 Coping with vacancy 155 Literature�������������������������������������������������157 Appendix I. Mentors 160 Appendix II. Terminology 161 Appendix III. Variables studies 163 The location of structurally vacant offices
  • 4. iv Preface This thesis is the final product of my graduation project for the departments of Real estate Housing and Urbanism at Delft University of Technology. The topic of this graduation project is the location characteristics of structurally vacant offices. Structural vacancy is an issue that troubles the minds of researchers, developers, owners and many more, including me. At the beginning of my study in Delft, the feeling prevailed that everything was possible in the building industry. Currently, the situation on the market is a lot more troubling than ever before, changing the way of looking to real estate. Structural vacancy is one of the current problems on a market were the sky used to be the limit. It seems to me that the sky has been reached. Due to the current crisis in the building industry, the role of the real estate manager is changing. Instead of developing real estate at high speed, conversion of the current stock is becoming much more important. With the amount of square meters of office space being larger than the demand, offices can stand out by increasingly meeting the demands of office users. But not only the building needs to meet the demands of office users, its location is perhaps as important. Knowledge of what users do and what users do not want is therefore increasingly important. Office conversion research often looks at the possibility of transforming a single building at a time. This scope may not be wide enough. When problems on area level are apparent, conversion on building level is insignificant. Problems on urban level should in my view be attacked on urban level. Therefore knowledge of demand on urban level is ever so important. This research, investigating what kind of office locations become vacant, will contribute to that knowledge and to the position of the real estate manager in a changing context. Office location conversions will also provide an interesting subject for urban designers. Current trends ask for urban developments within the city limits, no longer outside. Densifying and intensifying is the new assignment. While old industrial areas are a type of area within city limits which are regularly being regenerated, office locations are not yet. This thesis could prove a first investigation of the possibilities of bringing new life to office locations. In my opinion, for professionals in the building industry it will become equally important to be able to identify the demand of users, as to offer commercially attractive solutions. An urbanist with solely knowledge of matters of designing but no knowledge of the requirements and feasibility of area development will be overruled by professionals that can combine best of both worlds. The same applies for real estate managers or developers; without an integrated design for the area, their projects could become less feasible. As a personal objective, combining best of both worlds is what I’m trying to achieve by combining Real estate Housing with Urbanism. This thesis offered a good test of my ability to do so. Enjoy reading. Reinier van Wingerden, Delft, January 2013
  • 5. 1 Abstract Introduction This study is dedicated to the problem of structural office vacancy, a problem that seems quantitative at first. By the end of 2011, 6.8 million m² LFA was left vacant in the Netherlands, equalling 14.1% of the office stock, and this percentage is still growing (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2012). Multiple parties expect this percentage to rise in the coming years. The expectations range from 20% in 2020 (NVB, 2011), 25% in 2020 (Dynamis, 2011) or already in 2015 (ABN AMRO, 2011) or even 48% in 2030 (ING Economisch Bureau, 2011). A large part of the vacant offices, 28% (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2010), are structurally vacant, i.e. for a period of at least three consecutive years. In Utrecht, the city under study, 8.3% of its office stock is vacant (Gemeente Utrecht, 2011b). Aim The aim of this research is twofold. The aim is (1) to find common location characteristics increasing the risk of the occurrence of structural office vacancy, and (2) to design an urban strategy for an office district with high office vacancy in Utrecht. This graduation project has focussed on the following three aspects in particular; (1) validating previous research results in a different context, (2) specifying these results with different research methods and (3) developing a regeneration strategy on urban area level for an office district. KEYWORDS: structural office vacancy, location, cause, cope, urban regeneration, Utrecht Main research question The structure of the research is to first identify which location characteristics are increasing risk on structural office vacancy in office districts. With that knowledge, the next question is how to eliminate these found factors and define an urban strategy to revitalize an area with high vacancy rates. This results in the following main research question: “Which and to what extent do location characteristics increase the risk of the occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht, and what kind of urban strategies are needed to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an area with high structural office vacancy?” The main research question consists of two parts; the first about causes of office vacancy and the second about coping with office vacancy. This division can be recognized in the structure of the report. Sub research questions To find an answer to the main questions, several sub research questions are defined. The sub research questions can also be distinguished as questions regarding the causes of office vacancy, and questions concerning how to cope with office vacancy. In the following sections, these questions will be elaborated. PART I Causes of vacancy “What is the assumed reciprocity between location characteristics and structural office vacancy?” Macro level Office vacancy is caused by a mismatch of demand and supply, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Quantitative mismatch is caused by the market approached from a space market point of view; a geographically determined office space market. Quantitative causes start with the phenomenon of cyclical fluctuations of surpluses and deficits in the market is widely known as the ‘hog cycle’. Somewhat different is surplus production, in a geographically determined market such as a city, or on a specific location, caused by the ‘spatial fix’. Societal and economic changes affect user demand as well. Currently this is clearly visible since due to the economic crisis, the amount of office jobs had decreased, therefore demand for office space has declined. Another influence is ‘the new way of working’, decreasing demand since companies can cope with less office space. In a normal functioning market, a vacancy percentage of 4 – 5% is necessary to offer space for companies to move between buildings, which is called frictional vacancy. Qualitative factors influence buildings to become vacant as well. As quality standards rise, buildings can become obsolete in a short amount of time. Finally, the quality of both the building and the location very much determine which buildings become vacant; the least desired building and the least desired locations. The location of structurally vacant offices
  • 6. 2 “What location characteristics are generally believed to be related to the causes of office vacancy, and how can they be measured?” Meso level The conceptual model on meso level is based on the research factors of four studies (De Vrij, 2004, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010, Hegeman, 2011). The graduation study of De Vrij (2004) is taken into account due to the basis that it has established for the ‘conversion potential meter’. Geraedts and Van der Voordt (2004) have created an instrument for defining the lower end of the office premises market in ‘Good buildings drive out bad buildings’, which is included in the selection. ‘Out of office’ is the PhD thesis of Remøy (2010) in which she studies, amongst other things, the cause of office vacancy. The final included research is the study of Hegeman (2011) which was the most recent study on the relation between a building and office users at the start of this research. The definitions used by the researchers for the location category and location factor investigated are redefined and compared to get an overview of what the researchers considered during their study. This resulted in six location categories; accessibility, facilities, public space, prestige, functionality and environment. It is assumed that depending on the outcome of these six categories, the location can have a match or a mismatch between demand and supply. The specific location factors that followed from these studies are: accessibility by car, airplane, train, metro, tram and bus; catering, parking and shopping facilities; green; image rating and safety; housing and employment; and noise and odour pollution. “Is there a significant relationship between location characteristics and the occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht?” Exploratory data analysis The first step analysed the relation between a single independent variable and the dependent variable: structural vacancy. This was done using simple regression for continuous data (interval or ratio) and binary logistic regression for nominal and ordinal data to look for significant correlation between the two. The exploratory analysis results in several variables with a relation to structural office vacancy. In Utrecht, structurally vacant offices: • are closest to the highway • are best accessible by car • are furthest away from a train station • are not well accessible by public transport • are far away from a tram stop • are not accessible from the city centre within three turns • have insufficient worker amenities within 500 meter • are located along poor to average public space o where comfort is poor  where comfort to walk is poor or average  where comfort to stand is poor  where comfort to see is poor  where comfort to talk is poor or average o where enjoyment of sensory experiences is poor or average  where possibilities to enjoy the scale are poor or average  where possibilities to enjoy the positive aspects of the climate are poor or average • are located in a neighbourhood where the image is rated lowest of the city • are located in a neighbourhood where the highest percentage of inhabitants feel unsafe often • are located in areas with the least registered incidents of criminality of the city • are located in areas with the lowest percentage of inhabitants indicating traffic problems • are located in areas with the lowest amount of dwellings • are located in areas with the largest amount of jobs • are located in business districts or monofunctional office areas • are constructed between 1980 and 1989 • have a low technical state façade
  • 7. 3 Multi-collinearity The second step was to investigate the dataset for bivariate correlation. This shows interdependence, two variables are mutually dependent on each other, which was the case between two characteristics; • There was a significant relationship between image and safety , r = 0.898, p (two-tailed) 0.01. “Which and to what extent do location characteristics increase risk of structural office vacancy in Utrecht?” Explanatory The final step consisted of building a logistic regression model. In multivariate analysis, multiple variables are analysed simultaneously. Logistic regression is type of data analysis that suits the available data with a dependent variable (structural office vacancy) with a dichotomous outcome. This method enabled creating an explanatory model that explains why some of the buildings are structurally vacant and others are not by determining the influence of the variables. In Utrecht, structural vacant offices often share these characteristics: • are not well accessible by public transport • are located along public space where comfort is poor About the buildings can be stated that in Utrecht structurally vacant offices often: • have a low or medium technical state façade CONCLUSIONS Cause Based on the answers on the sub research questions, the main question about the causes of structural office vacancy could be answered. The main question was: “Which and to what extent do location characteristics increase the risk of the occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht?” This question can be answered by the results of the explanatory analysis. Risk increasing location characteristics are: • Modality: when not well accessible by public transport, the higher the odds of structural office vacancy Goudappel Coffeng (2011) measured this by the mobility by the amount of people that can access an area within 30 minutes by public transport. • Comfort of public space: the lower the comfort of the public space, the higher the odds of structural office vacancy This can be measured by Gehl’s method (2006) of assessment of possibilities to walk, stand, sit, see, talk and play. The main question asked was: “Which and to what extent do location characteristics increase the risk of the occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht?”. There were four studies selected which look at what location characteristics are risk increasing factors in terms of vacancy (De Vrij, 2004, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Remøy, 2010). The analysis of these studies led to a number of location characteristics, as well as a few building characteristics, to be studied in the city of Utrecht. These characteristics, studied by 102 buildings of which 21 structurally vacant, were analysed using logistic regression to determine the relationship between the location and office vacancy. The final outcome was that in Utrecht structurally vacant offices: • Are not well accessible by public transport • Have a low comfort of public space • Have a low or medium maintenance state of the façade The location of structurally vacant offices
  • 8. 4 PART II Coping with vacancy “What kind of methods are available in order to regenerate an area with high vacancy?” Interventions Most common methods to cope with office vacancy are interventions on building level. When solutions on building level are not sufficient, actions can be undertaken on urban area level; urban regeneration. Possible interventions are: • Consolidation (neither quantitative nor qualitative) • Modernisation (qualitative) • Conversion (quantitative) • Demolishment (quantitative) • Urban regeneration (quantitative and/or qualitative) Problems The problems where urban regeneration could provide solutions are: • Economic activity lost • Social dysfunction • Social exclusion • Environmental quality lost • Ecological balance lost Actions The ingredients for (an) urban regeneration (plan) are: • A comprehensive vision • Strategic, long term improvements • Improvements in the economic, physical, social or environmental conditions Urban area (re-)development The increasing urban dynamics have consequences for the complexity of urban area developments, wherefore it is important to know the ingredients of urban area development; context, content, actors and means (Franzen et al., 2010). The context of an area very much determines the intervention method. Functions When converting buildings, it is important to find a match between demand and supply. There are all sorts of different functions possible, which include: • Dwellings • Student housing • Housing for the elderly • (Public) facilities • Retail • Hotels • Catering facilities • Healthcare facilities • Art/culture With conversion projects it is often not possible to initiate action without a combination of functions. Buildings are often too large for one single function or user. To achieve the most efficient use of the building, it is an option to house several functions.
  • 9. 5 “What are the problems of the location in the Merwede quarter in Utrecht?” Obstacles Due to the phased additions to the city, Kanaleneiland is surrounded by obstacles such as the Merwede canal and Amsterdam-Rhine canal, as well as the highway A12. Kanaleneiland became an autonomous district, slightly isolated from the rest of the city. The post war design of the area, by C.M. van der Stad, carefully designed the whole area, except for a zoning plan assigned for industry and businesses in the East. In this part is the Merwede quarter, the area within Kanaleneiland with the most square meters of structurally vacant offices. Therefore this area formed the main design area for this research. Post war design Kanaleneiland is a typical example of a post war district, except for three major differences from other post war districts; (1) Kanaleneiland has very wide roads, (2) it was designed to prioritise car use and (3) there was no public green between the building blocks. The four key points of the design were: • Large scale • North-South orientation • Intensive land use and industrial building method • Differentiation of the Northern part Deprivation Initially the inhabitants were very satisfied with their dwellings. At the end of the 1960s the opinion about the area changed. The scale of the new areas was seen as too large and too monotonous. Due to the lack of larger terraced housing, the district became less popular among the middle class. Although the neighbourhood concept was the dominant form at that time, in current times the clustering of facilities is experienced as social dysfunction. In the 1970s there was not sufficient funds to maintain or renew the outdated facilities, and the public green was used for the construction of new housing, schools and sports fields. Deprivation of public space and porticos occurred and apartments obtained a negative image due to the impersonal scale and the anonymous atmosphere. Kanaleneiland was appointed as a deprived neighbourhood (‘probleemwijk’). Office vacancy Kanaleneiland has been chosen as main subject for the part about coping with vacancy because this area has the most square meters office space vacant of Utrecht. The largest problems in terms of structural office vacancy can be found in the Mewede quarter. Causes location The Merwede quarter is well accessible by public transport, therefore these problems are not apparent on this location. The comfort of the public space is to be assessed as poor, which is a factor which increases risk on structural office vacancy occurring. Buildings There are 14 offices in the area from the 31 buildings in total. Four of them are partly vacant and three of them are completely vacant. Other functions are industrial buildings (with office space), two gas stations, two shops and a fish shop. There is also an abundance of parking space. Causes building The technical state of the façades in the Merwede quarter are up to standard, therefore not increasing risk on office vacancy occurring. Developments The area is surrounded by many different functions, such as offices, industrial buildings, commercial areas and housing. The area is in transition, by the structure vision of the Municipality of Utrecht and the A12 Zone plan, which both envision a greater mix of functions. Change can already be seen by some housing projects in the immediate surroundings of the Merwede quarter. The location of structurally vacant offices
  • 10. 6 Urban regeneration The problems described above can be distinguished as loss of economic activity; clearly visible by the vacancy in the area; social dysfunction; the design of the area according to the neighbourhood concept led to segregation, and social exclusion; for instance the small diversity of households in Kanaleneiland. There are problems in the Merwede quarter that can be addressed by urban regeneration CONCLUSIONS Coping with vacancy The main research question for how to cope with office vacancy is as follows: “What kind of urban strategies are needed to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an area with high structural office vacancy?” The problems with vacancy are both quantitative as qualitative. The Merwede quarter is an area where economic activity is lost, where there is social dysfunction and where social exclusion is apparent (Couch et al., 2003). Urban regeneration is concerned with solving this type of problems. Due to the economic crisis, blue print designing is no longer an option. Urban regeneration requires a comprehensive vision and strategic long term improvements in the economic, physical, social or environmental conditions (Roberts and Sykes, 2000). The comprehensive vision foresees an area with a clear centre where some facilities are and people come to meet and relax, a comfortable public space centrally in the design which acts as the main axis and offers space for office users to relax during breaks, and an recreational route along the Merwede canal where people can benefit from the beautiful environment, and most importantly; problems with office vacancy are diminished. The area was scanned for locations that offer possibilities to offer strategic solutions. Three locations were selected; a part in the North with two (to be) vacant office buildings, a few industrial buildings quite centrally located in the area, and the two long roads within the area. For these locations, interventions from which the area would benefit were designed. The strategies are designed to have different phases; the first phase with interventions are intended to stimulate further interventions in a second phase. Merwede mixed environment This strategy aims to convert vacant offices into housing and thereby creating a mixed environment in the area. Parking space at the site could be converted step-wise into semi-public space for the inhabitants. The effect of this strategy would be that more activity during and after work hours is generated, increasing the social control. That could mean that the safety en thereby the image of the area would improve, increasing the desirability of living and working in this area. Occupancy of the offices could be positively affected by the improved situation in the area, and further implementation of bringing housing to the area would be stimulated along the Merwede Canal since apartments are often of higher value than the industrial buildings currently in the area. Facilitating centre Facilitating centre is a strategy aimed to start off with tackling the problem of vacant industrial buildings quite centrally located in the area. The industrial buildings can be converted into a café-restaurant, a city beach and a breeding place for starting companies; thereby solving the problem social dysfunction. The large terrain surrounding these industrial buildings can be converted into public space, creating a centre in the area where users can go. As a spin-off, owners of adjacent buildings can decide to convert or demolish their (low value) industrial buildings and replace them by facilities; either only in the plinth or in the whole building. The effect of the strategy could be that the activities in the area increase, both during work hours as after work hours. As with the previous strategy, the social control would thereby increase, increasing the feeling of safety and the image of the area. The part with facilities would start to act as a true centre of the area, creating an identity of the Merwede quarter. These positive effects could have impact on the desirability of the offices, which would increase, bringing down office vacancy. When the facilities in the area proof successful, owners of the adjacent industrial buildings could opt for selling their land in order to convert or demolish the existing building and adding more facilities to the area.
  • 11. 7 Claiming the public space The strategy aims to give back the public space to the pedestrians and cyclists in several steps, in order to activate live on the street and create an identity for the area to which the users can relate. This is done by taking space from the cars to be assigned to pedestrians. The Zeehaenkade can be gradually banning cars totally, giving the space to pedestrians and cyclists. A direct result of the strategy could be that the comfort of the public space would increase, generating more liveliness on the street. The Zeehaenkade could start to act as a recreational route, increasing activity both during work hours as after. Hereby the social control would increase, which can increase the feeling of safety and the image of the area. This could have a positive effect on office use, as simultaneously the identity of the area starts to improve. The willingness to invest in the public space could increase as positive effects can be seen from this strategy, further improving the public space of the area. Implementation The strategies can be implemented immediately. They can be implemented at the same time, but not necessarily. In order to stimulate initiatives, but to prevent uncontrolled sprawl, a zoning plan for the Merwede quarter is necessary to steer developments. The location of structurally vacant offices
  • 13. Figure 1. Vacant office (Reformatorisch dagblad, 2012) 9 1. Introduction This chapter gives a broad overview of the thesis subject, starting with the problem under study, the location of the research, the research questions, the research design and the hypothesis. These subjects will be elaborated upon in the next chapters. 1. The location of structurally vacant offices
  • 14. QualitativeQuantitative Building LocationMarket Figure 2. Quantitative and qualitative factors 10 1.1 Problem statement This research started out in 2011 when the total supply of office space in the Netherlands was 48.2 million m² lettable floor area (LFA). Of these offices, 6.8 million m² LFA was left vacant in Q4 2011, meaning there was 14.1% office vacancy and this percentage is still slowly growing (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2012). Multiple parties expect this percentage to rise in the coming years. The expectations range from 20% in 2020 (NVB, 2011), 25% in 2020 (Dynamis, 2011) or already in 2015 (ABN AMRO, 2011) or even 48% in 2030 (ING Economisch Bureau, 2011). A large part of the vacant offices, 28% (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2010), are structurally vacant, i.e. for a period of at least three consecutive years. Office vacancy occurs due to a mismatch in demand and supply, both quantitative (the market) as qualitative (building and location characteristics). The economic crisis led to a decrease of office jobs, leading to a declined demand for office space. Simultaneously, ‘the new way of working’ ensures that companies can cope with less office space than before. The ageing population in the Netherlands causes the working population to decrease, also bringing down the demand. Currently there are still new buildings being developed. These buildings usually meet the qualitative demands of office user organizations, causing the lower end of the office market to become vacant. Although there are experts who believe the market will improve, others are more sceptical. They state that there is a structural surplus in the office market, and that vacancy will persist in the lower end of the office market (Voordt et al., 2007, de Architekten Cie, 2007). There are several possibilities of how to cope with vacancy, one of which is conversion. However, actions usually take place on building level and not on urban level. There are many cases where actions on building level aren’t sufficient but action needs to be taken on urban scale. Knowledge on the impact of the area on office vacancy should be further developed, as should the urban strategies of regenerating an office area. To deal with office vacancy is an assignment with urban dimensions as Architekten Cie states (2007). 1.2 Stakeholders Housing and commercial real estate were hit hardest of the building sector by the crisis, with a decline in turnover of over 8% in 2009 (ANP, 2010b). Vacancy is causing economic problems for office owners and investors, since the building is providing less or no revenues (Deloitte Real Estate Advisory, 2011). Official bodies, such as the government and municipality, will lose (tax) revenues. Municipalities can lose income of up to 3 billion euro every year since many developments have been stopped or delayed (Deloitte Real Estate Advisory, 2011). Land development used to be a stable source of income for municipalities, but since demand of office space declined drastically, municipalities have trouble selling land to developers. Land value has declined while expenses are rising through the many square meters of unsellable land, causing municipalities to have financial difficulties paying off interest (NRC Handelsblad, 2010). For society, consisting of office users, residents and passers, vacancy causes problems of insecurity and social uncertainty (van der Voordt et al., 2007). As a secondary effect, vacancy can give a surrounding area a negative image, decreasing the attractiveness for all stakeholders, leading to deterioration of that area as a whole and devaluation of its buildings. This could lead to further downwards spiralling developments, which will cause problems for the functioning of a city, again influencing involved stakeholders.
  • 15. 11 1.3 Location Many studies on structural office vacancy and conversion possibilities were performed in Amsterdam. Research in Amsterdam on structural vacancy revealed that locations with a high number of office buildings and employment in the manufacturing or distribution sector, together with a lack of facilities and low quality land use for public space are locations that are left vacant (Remøy, 2010). My thesis was performed in the office market in Utrecht in order to validate these results or reveal differences to what kind of locations are left vacant. There are two different scales on which location characteristics play a role. One is one area level; location characteristics that apply to all the buildings within a certain area. The other scale is on building level; location characteristics that differ between buildings within a certain area. 1.4 Aim Research has already been done on the relation between office locations and office vacancy, and still new research is being performed since office vacancy is a very current topic. However, research has not been done in the city of Utrecht, which could lead to different results. Office vacancy is mostly being researched by researchers with a real estate background, while an approach based on the analysis of the urban context could lead to different insights. Methods to regenerate offices are also being researched from a real estate point of view on building level, while also here an approach based on the urban context could lead to new strategies. The aim of the research is twofold. The aim is (1) to find common location characteristics increasing the risk of the occurrence of structural office vacancy, and (2) to design an urban strategy for an office district with high office vacancy in Utrecht. This graduation project has focussed on the following three aspects in particular; (1) validating previous research results in a different context, (2) specifying these results with different research methods and (3) developing a regeneration strategy on urban area level for an office district. 1. Introduction
  • 16. Figure 3. Research design research question data analysis literature study location analysis conclusions literature study conclusions “Which and to what extent do location characteristics increase the risk of the occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht, and what kind of urban strategies are needed to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an area with high structural office vacancy?” “Is there a significant relationship between location characteristics and the occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht?” “What location characteristics are generally believed to be related to the causes of office vacancy, and how can they be measured?” “What are the problems of the location in the Merwede quarter in Utrecht?” “Which and to what extent do location characteristics increase the risk of the occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht?” “What kind of spatial intervention strategies are available in order to regenerate an urban area with a high level of structural office vacancy?” “What kind of urban strategies are needed to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an area with high structural office vacancy?” ? ? ? ? ? ? ? conceptual models “What is the assumed reciprocity between location characteristics and structural office vacancy?” causes of vacancy coping with vacancy 12 1.5 Research questions Main research question The structure of the research is to first identify which location characteristics are increasing risk on structural office vacancy in office districts. With that knowledge, the next question is how to eliminate these found factors and define an urban strategy to revitalize an area with high vacancy rates. This results in the following main research question: “Which and to what extent do location characteristics increase the risk of the occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht, and what kind of urban strategies are needed to regenerate the Merwede quarter, an area with high structural office vacancy?” The main research question consists of two parts; the first about causes of office vacancy and the second about coping with office vacancy. This division can be recognized in the structure of the report. Sub research questions To find an answer to the main questions, several sub research questions are defined. The sub research questions can also be distinguished as questions regarding the causes of office vacancy, and questions concerning how to cope with office vacancy. “What is the assumed reciprocity between location characteristics and structural office vacancy?” “What location characteristics are generally believed to be related to the causes of office vacancy, and how can they be measured?” “Is there a significant relationship between location characteristics and the occurrence of structural office vacancy in Utrecht?” “What kind of spatial intervention strategies are available in order to regenerate an urban area with a high level of structural office vacancy?” “What are the problems of the location in the Merwede quarter in Utrecht?” 1.6 Research design Figure 3 outlines the main steps that were taken in the process of working towards answering the main research question with the sub research questions about the causes and how to cope with office vacancy. The main question derived from assumed reciprocity between office vacancy and location characteristics. Several conceptual models were formed, describing this relationship. Based on these assumptions,
  • 17. 13 literature study was done concerning the causes of office vacancy. The gained information was linked back to the conceptual models. The location characteristics which were assumed to be related to the causes of office vacancy where measured and analysed for a significant correlation. From this analysis conclusions were drawn about the location characteristics that increase risk on office vacancy. The conclusions about the causes of vacancy formed the input for the literature study concerning coping with vacancy. The factors that were mentioned in literature were analysed in the location of the Merwede quarter. Results in this analysis led to further research in literature, and vice versa. The final step was researching by designing: strategies were formed aimed at solving the problems with office vacancy and answering the main question about how to cope with office vacancy. 1.7 Final products The research is a fully intertwined project of both Real estate Housing as Urbanism. The final products are not differentiated as products for one of the master tracks. There is however a distinction between the part about the causes of structural office vacancy, which has a focus from Real estate Housing perspective, and the part about coping with office vacancy, which has a focus from Urbanism perspective. Causes of vacancy The final product is a checklist of certain location factors that incidate increasing risk on structural office vacancy. This knowledge can be used by governments, municipalities, developers, urban designers and office user organizations in order to prevent structural office vacancy or to respond to structural office vacancy. Assessing the quality of a location can be improved by using the checklist, indicating what should and what should not be integrated at a location. Coping with vacancy The final products are urban regeneration strategies implemented in an urban design for the Merwede quarter, an office district within Utrecht with high structural office vacancy. The urban regeneration strategies can be used by the stakeholders involved in that specific area or the city of Utrecht as a whole, and by governments, municipalities, developers and urban designers as an example of how to revitalize an urban area with high structural vacancy. 1.8 Hypothesis The hypothesis, concerning the cause of vacancy, was that the following location characteristics are increasing risk on the occurrence of structural office vacancy: • Poor accessibility by train • Bad connection to city centre • Lack of shopping and catering facilities • Low comfort of public space • Low image of the neighbourhood • Unsafe neighbourhood • Outdated office park type: first generation office parks • Monofunctional office area The second hypothesis, concerning how to cope with vacancy, was that eliminating (the effect) of the location characteristics that increaserisk on structural officevacancy occurring will decreaseofficevacancy. This hypothesis is based on the assumption that structural office vacancy is a qualitative problem. 1. Introduction
  • 18. 14 1.9 Relevance Societal Structural vacancy is a societal problem because it creates not only property depreciation, but also overdue maintenance, degeneration, social insecurity and a bad image, leading to downwards spiralling developments of (office) locations (Remøy et al., 2009). Property depreciation is not limited to the vacant building; recent study has shown that the rents of adjacent buildings drop due to vacancy of neighbouring buildings (Koppels et al., 2011). Moreover, vacancy represents a threat to a sustainably built environment, as new office space is added while existing office space is already redundant. Increasing knowledge on this matter could contribute to the theory to prevent structural office vacancy or to respond to structural office vacancy, providing a better working and/ or living environment. This theory can be used by governments, municipalities, developers, urban designers and office user organizations. Academic Increasing knowledge on structural vacancy is relevant for academics in multiple ways. This research will further develop the knowledge on the influence of location characteristics on structural office vacancy. The outcomes will help understanding why office vacancy occurs. Locations with these characteristics could be identified as locations with high risk on office vacancy. Furthermore, research on what spatial strategies are needed to revitalize an area with high structural office vacancy will contribute to the knowledge of how to prevent or cope with structural office vacancy. Societies have become more aware over the last 30 years of the growing environmental costs of economic competition and urbanisation, and the need for more sustainable forms of development (Couch et al., 2003). The ability to design urban areas without structural office vacancy is a step towards a sustainable built environment, with less use of materials, less need of conversion and an enlarged lifespan of office buildings. “It is of major importance to gain insight on the positioning of offices within the city to create an impression of the potential for future developments of vacant offices but especially of office areas” (de Architekten Cie, 2007).
  • 19. Figure 4. Office building becoming vacant in Papendorp (Architecture-buildings.com, 2012) 15 2. Context The research is performed in the Dutch city of Utrecht. For the part about the causes of vacancy, the scope is the whole city. Research about coping with vacancy is performed on a smaller scale; the Merwede quarter in Kanaleneiland. The relevant context of the location with its surroundings is described in this chapter. 2. The location of structurally vacant offices
  • 20. Figure 5. Overview of the G4 within the Netherlands Amsterdam UtrechtThe Hague Rotterdam airport harbour university Randstad inhabitants 16
  • 21. Germany Belgium 300 km/h 160 km/h 140 km/h 130 km/h 120 km/h 120 km/h train station Figure 6. Road network (adapted from Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu, 2011) Germany Belgium travel time target travel time target insufficient data Figure 7. Train network 17 2.1 The Netherlands Utrecht is one of the four biggest cities in the Netherlands, complemented by Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague. These cities together are known as the G4; the four major cities. The G4 initiated the Big City Policy (Grotestedenbeleid) which is set out every five years in order to improve working and living conditions in these municipalities (Ministerie voor Wonen Wijken en Integratie, 2012). The policy scope was later on expanded with another 33 municipalities named the G32. There are five fields covered in this policy; work, education, security, quality of life and health care (Stouten, 2010). The G4 lies within the Randstad, the largest urban area in the Netherlands which has the ambition to be functioning as a strong metropolis. Figure 4 shows an overview of the Netherlands with special focus on the G4 within the Randstad area. The image abstractly visualizes the amount of inhabitants, the sizes of the universities and the main airports and harbours. It is clearly visible that most activities are clustered in the Randstad. Almost every large municipality in the Randstad is positioned in a cluster around the four major cities. The most important international airport is positioned southwest of Amsterdam. Although there is an important harbour in Amsterdam as well, the most important harbour business-wise is in Rotterdam. The largest university is positioned in Utrecht. Figure 6 gives an indication of the road network in the Netherlands. Most connections are found in the same areaofAmsterdam,Rotterdam,theHagueandUtrecht. This image shows an integration of the research from the government about the travel time per route. In the region around Utrecht and Amsterdam, it indicated an enlarged travel time due to traffic-jams. For commuter traffic, this can generate great discomfort. Figure 7 gives an overview of the train network in the Netherlands and the maximum speeds per track. The fastest track leads from the main airport via Rotterdam to Belgium, and from there to France and the United Kingdom. It is noticeable that Utrecht is not directly connected to this route. However, this track is not included in the normal public transport services within the Netherlands, but requires an extra fee. When looking at the included services, Utrecht and Amsterdam are very well connected. Amsterdam has the highest number of people entering and exiting the trains, closely followed by Utrecht (Treinreiziger.nl, 2009). This number does not include people changing trains, and as a central node in the Netherlands, the station of Utrecht could well be the most used one. 2. Context
  • 22. NL Amsterdam Rotterdam The Hague Utrecht Population January 1st 2010 * 16,577,612 767,849 590,131 489,375 306,731 Jobs * 8,032,079 507,575 319,936 265,898 220,568 Office jobs *** 2,265,500 264,400 151,550 207,800 124,000 Office space in use m² LFA *** 40,899,000 5,650,000 3,869,000 5,847,000 2,950,000 Relative vacancy ** 13.7% 17.5% 12.1% 8.8% 8.3% Average rents office space Class A €/m²/year ** € 340 € 200 € 210 € 205 Average rents office space €/m²/year *** € 143 € 198 € 137 € 138 € 138 Table 1. General information G4 *(CBS,2011) **(Gemeente Utrecht, 2011) ***(DTZ Zadelhoff, 2011) Figure 8. Office space in use and construction plans in the G4 (adapted from NVB, 2011) 5,650,000 m² 2,950,000 m² 3,869,000 m² 5,847,000 m² 570,000 m² 550,000 m² 1,250,000 m² 840,000 m² new development supply Figure 9. Vacancy in the G4 (adapted from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011) 17.5% 12.1% 8.8% 8.3% office space in use vacancy 18 Of all the cities in the G4, Utrecht has the smallest population and the least amount of jobs. Although Utrecht has the least square meters office space, also the lowest relative vacancy can be found there, 8.3% as opposed to the highest, Amsterdam with 17.5% (Gemeente Utrecht, 2011b). There is however a substantial amount of development plans for new office space which is relatively high in Utrecht, which was expected to cause the relative vacancy to rise largely. This phenomenon can now be confirmed, as with a rise of supply of 13.5%, Utrecht is troubled most of the G4 by the market conditions (NVM, 2012). 2.2 The Utrecht region The annual research by the Rabobank of the 40 COROP regions, regional areas within the Netherlands, shows that de province of Utrecht has a relatively stable strong position (Rabobank, 2011), however not as strong as it was before 2007. The province is part of a group of regions with population growth above average, a positive employment development and a favourable business climate. An advisory body of the European Commission has developed a new index to demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of all of the 271 EU regions, to improve the understanding of competitiveness of regional level. In this index Utrecht comes out as number one (Annoni and Kozovska, 2010). Due to the growing together of the cities of Utrecht and Nieuwegein, the market of Utrecht is highly interwoven with the market of Nieuwegein. Despite of this fact, Nieuwegein will not be taken into consideration in this research since the data available on Nieuwegein is much less comprehensive as the data of Utrecht. Other markets that are surrounding Utrecht are Bunnik, De Bilt, Houten, IJsselstein, Maarssen, Vianen and Zeist. An overview of their location can be seen in figure 10. In contrast to the situation in the nineties, there is now an abundant supply of office space in the G4 for reasonable prices. Due to this, satellite towns around the G4 see many companies moving back to the cities causing vacancy rates in these satellite
  • 23. Vacany Municipality % in 2008 % in 2011 Bunnik 4.3 12.3 De Bilt 8.4 16.9 Houten 2.8 13.6 IJsselstein 17.6 18.7 Maarssen 24.3 32.3 Nieuwegein 16.8 22.7 Utrecht 7.0 8.3 Vianen 25.4 17.9 Zeist 4.3 7.1 Table 2. Relative vacancy in Utrecht and its surroundings (adapted from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011) Figure 10. Utrecht and its surroundings (adapted from DTZ, 2011) Utrecht Maarssen Nieuwegein IJsselstein Vianen Houten Bunnik Zeist De Bilt 0 1 2 3 km road railway water built environment 19 towns to rise drastically (Hek et al., 2004). This can be confirmed when looking at the vacancy rates for 2008 and 2011 in the municipalities surrounding Utrecht. With the exception of Vianen and IJsselstein, every municipality has a large increase in relative vacancy. The vacancy rate in Houten has even risen from 2.8% to 13.6% in three years. For this total region, office vacancy has risen from 10.5% mid 2010 to 11.6% mid 2011 (Gemeente Utrecht, 2011b). This is a higher growth than the national average. There is also large difference between the municipalities; Maarssen has a substantial higher vacancy percentage (32.3%) as does Nieuwegein (22.7%). Utrecht has relatively low vacancy, however in absolute numbers it has the most vacant square meters. The EIB expects the demand to rise in the province of Utrecht until 2020, but will decline between 2020 and 2040 (EIB, 2011). This is based on a gradually declining demand for office space per employee. 2. Context
  • 24. Table 3. Overview office areas in Utrecht (adapted from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011) Figure 11. Office districts types in Utrecht (adapted from geografiek.nl) A27 A2 A2 A12 A12 A28 A27 Leidsche Rijn Centrum Lage Weide Stationsgebied Overvecht Binnenstad Oost Papendorp Kanaleneiland Galgenwaard Rijnsweerd Lunetten highway train station monofunctional office area spread offices in business district offices in mixed environment (low density) offices in mixed environment (high density) A# 0 1 2 3 4 5 km Oudenrijn Area Total stock m² LFA Supply m² LFA Unsaleable supply m² LFA Sublease supply m² LFA Vacancy m² LFA Long term vacancy m² LFA Stationsgebied 633,200 10,800 0 1,400 1,100 0 Oude Binnenstad 126,900 6,200 0 900 5,300 1,650 Papendorp 307,200 65,600 40,700 51,700 48,600 30,100 Oost 190,400 11,100 1,100 4,400 4,700 2,000 Rijnsweerd 311,050 40,400 0 10,500 20,400 5,700 Kanaleneiland 412,650 86,000 16,500 16,100 70,500 55,700 Overvecht 76,000 6,100 6,100 0 3,800 1,900 Lage Weide 163,000 35,500 16,400 0 31,200 19,950 Oudenrijn 67,900 19,800 2,900 4,000 15,800 11,850 Leidsche Rijn Centrum 18,700 0 0 0 0 0 Overig Utrecht 209,500 15,100 600 0 8,800 1,750 Total 2,552,600 297,100 82,000 89,000 210,700 122,200 20
  • 25. Figure 12. Vacancy in Kanaleneiland, Papendorp and Lage Weide Vacancy Area m² LFA in 2010* m² LFA in 2011** Kanaleneiland 62,200 70,500 Papendorp 59,300 48,600 Lage Weide 39,100 31,200 Rijnsweerd 20,000 20,400 Oudenrijn 21,500 15,800 Oude Binnenstad 2,300 5,300 Oost 12,700 4,700 Overvecht 5,700 3,800 Stationsgebied 3,600 1,100 Total 230,500 210,700 Vacancy Area m² LFA in 2010* m² LFA in 2011** Kanaleneiland 6,100 19,900 Lage Weide 10,400 12,600 Rijnsweerd 2,800 5,300 Papendorp 4,000 3,000 Oudenrijn 7,000 2,900 Overvecht 1,400 2,900 Oost 1,300 2,000 Oude Binnenstad 1,300 800 Stationsgebied 0 0 Total 34,100 50,200 Vacancy Area % in 2010* % in 2011** Oudenrijn 31.7 23.3 Lage Weide 19.6 19.1 Kanaleneiland 15.2 17.1 Papendorp 20.0 15.8 Rijnsweerd 6.4 6.6 Overvecht 7.5 5.0 Oude Binnenstad 1.8 4.2 Oost 6.7 2.5 Stationsgebied 0.6 0.2 Total 9.1 8.3 Table 4. Absolute office vacancy *(adapted from DTZ, 2010) **(adapted from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011) Table 5. Relative office vacancy *(adapted from DTZ, 2010) **(adapted from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011) Table 6. Structural office vacancy *(adapted from DTZ, 2010) **(adapted from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011) 21 2.3 Office areas There are several office areas within Utrecht, and there are several definitions of these areas. For this research, the area definitions as defined by Geografiek will be used as these are being used by DTZ and the Utrecht municipality as well and the database in this research is also from DTZ. These areas are shown in figure 11. There are three areas which will be taken out of the further research; Galgenwaard, Leidsche Rijn Centrum and Oudenrijn. Leidsche Rijn Centrum is an area which has just recently started its developments, and Galgenwaard has such a small stock that their figures are taken up into ‘Utrecht other’ (overig Utrecht). Oudenrijn will not be taken into account since this area is missing in the database of DTZ, due to the fact that it does not belong to Utrecht in some definitions. Relatively the highest vacancy occurs in Oudenrijn, Lage Weide and Kanaleneiland. The range of vacancy rates is large; from 0.2% in Oost to 23.3% in Oudenrijn. In absolute numbers, Kanaleneiland stands out with 70,500 m² LFA office vacancy, which is even more than the total supply of Oudenrijn. The structural vacancy has risen from 34,100 in 2010 to 50,200 m² in 2011, which represents 23.8% of total vacancy. The Mayor and Alderman expect that between 50,000 and 75,000 m² of office space is structurally vacant in Utrecht (Gemeente Utrecht, 2010a). However the amount of square meters of unsalable offices is even higher; 82,000 m². Almost half of that, 40,700 m², is located in Oudenrijn. There is 122,200 m² office space which is vacant for more than one year, which is 58,0% of total vacancy. A large amount of this is located in Kanaleneiland; 55,700 m² (Gemeente Utrecht, 2011b). 2. Context
  • 26. Figure 13. Papendorp and Rijnsweerd Papendorp Type of area Monofunctional office area Type of location Highway location Accessibility - Public transport Average by bus - Car Good Parking On-site, limited in public space Target group ICT services, creative services, knowledge intensive activity, knowledge-intensive business and financial services, medical / pharmaceutical activities, (semi) public services and government Image High quality office and business location Jobs 14,943 Rijnsweerd Type of area Monofunctional office area Type of location Highway location Accessibility - Public transport Good by bus - Car Good Parking Limited on-site, limited in public space Target group Medium and large business and financial services, insurance companies, public administration and nonprofit organizations. Image Mostly good appearance through quality office buildings. Jobs 10,213 N 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 km 22 The next pages show an inventory of the office areas in Utrecht that have been taken into account in the research. The tables combine information about the type of area (Geografiek, 2011) and the type of location, accessibility, parking facilities, target group, image and amount of jobs as characterised by Utrecht Investment Agency (2011).
  • 27. Lage Weide Type of area Spread offices in business district Type of location Highway location Accessibility - Public transport Bus - Car Good Parking Reasonably sufficient on-site parking, limited in public space Target group Midsize firms in business services, trade, automation and utilities Image Businesses with office space mainly manufacturing and distribution, the most representative modern part located along the A2 Jobs 19,707 Figure 14. Kanaleneiland, Oudenrijn and Stationsgebied Kanaleneiland Type of area Mixed environment high density Type of location Highway location Accessibility - Public transport Good; express tram - Car Good Parking Sufficient parking, free Target group Business services, public administration, automation Image Functional office buildings, most mixed with other functions Jobs 20,812 Stationsgebied Type of area Mixed environment high density Type of location Inner city and train station location Accessibility - Public transport Good, public transport hub - Car Excellent Parking Extensive public car parks Target group Mainly large offices of banks, insurance companies, business services, transportation and non- profit organizations Image Metropolitan centre environment with many facilities Jobs 30,416 N 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 km 232. Context
  • 28. Figure 15. Binnenstad, Oost and Overvecht Overvecht Type of area Mixed environment low density Type of location Train station location Accessibility - Public transport Good - Car Average to good Parking Limited on-site parking, extensive public parking Target group Medium to large offices of social organizations, trade and transportation Image Small office clusters across the area, partly (renovated) old buildings and partly representative new buildings Jobs 13,461 Oost Type of area Mixed environment low density Type of location East of city centre Accessibility - Public transport Moderate - Car Average to good Parking Partly on-site, paid public parking, partly underground Target group High profiled businesses Image Historical offices in old luxury mansions and villas Jobs Binnenstad Type of area Mixed environment low density Type of location Inner city location Accessibility - Public transport Good - Car Average Parking Paid public parking Target group High profiled businesses Image Historical offices Jobs N 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 km 24
  • 29. Figure 16. Birds eye view Papendorp (Bing, 2012) Figure 17. Birds eye view Stationsgebied (Bing, 2012) Figure 18. Birds eye view Rijnsweerd (Bing, 2012) Figure 19. Birds eye view Binnenstad (Bing, 2012) Figure 20. Birds eye view Kanaleneiland (Bing, 2012) Figure 21. Birds eye view Oost (Bing, 2012) Figure 22. Birds eye view Lage Weide (Bing, 2012) Figure 23. Birds eye view Overvecht (Bing, 2012) 252. Context
  • 30. Table 7. Plans new office space in Utrecht (adapted from Gemeente Utrecht, 2011) Certain Probable Uncertain Total Year m² GFA m² GFA m² GFA m² GFA 2011 40,000 0 0 40,000 2012 8,000 0 8,000 16,000 2013 23,000 0 0 23,000 2014 73,500 7,000 43,000 123,500 2015+ 13,200 152,700 300,800 466,700 Total 117,700 159,700 351,800 669,200 Figure 24. Current and future supply office districts in Utrecht (adapted from geografiek.nl) Leidsche Rijn Centrum Lage Weide Stationsgebied Overvecht Binnenstad Oost Papendorp Kanaleneiland Galgenwaard Rijnsweerd Lunetten Oudenrijn new development supply 0 1 2 3 4 5 km 26 In spite of the high percentage of vacancy, still new plans are being developed. The plans for new development comprise 721,600 m² in total. This is as much as 28.3% of the total office supply in Utrecht (2,552,500 m²). Even with subtracting the plans which are still uncertain, 327,300 m² of new developments remain, which is still 12,8% of the current stock. The development plans focuses in a few areas. Leidsche Rijn Centrum, as mentioned, is in total a new development area. The addition to the current stock is planned in Papendorp, Stationsgebied, Galgenwaard, Oudenrijn and Kanaleneiland. New developments in Stationsgebied is perhaps least surprising since vacancy rates are only 0.2%. Papendorp however has a vacancy rate of 15.8% and has large development plans. As a response, the municipality has put a stop to some of the development plans (Vastgoedmarkt, 2011). Locations that are still up for development are Stationsgebied, Leidsche Rijn Centrum and Papendorp.
  • 31. Figure 25. Position Kanaleneiland in Utrecht (adapted from geografiek.nl) A27 A2 A2 A12 A12 A28 A27 Leidsche Rijn Centrum Lage Weide Stationsgebied Overvecht Binnenstad Oost Papendorp Kanaleneiland Merwedekwartier Galgenwaard Rijnsweerd Lunetten highway train station A# 0 1 2 3 4 5 km Oudenrijn 27 2.4 Kanaleneiland The focus area for urban regeneration is the Merwede quarter, a part of Kanaleneiland. Kanaleneiland is officially an island located in the South West of Utrecht (see figure 25) and is surrounded by the ‘Amsterdam-Rijn Canal’ and the ‘Merwede Canal’. Kanaleneiland is however considered smaller, located between these canals but limited by the ‘Leidsche Rijn’ and the A12 highway. Kanaleneiland is positioned fairly centrally in Utrecht, North-East of Kanaleneiland is the inner city. The support for urban regeneration in this area can be considered quite large. This area has the highest amount of vacant square meters office space in the whole of Utrecht. Problems in this area are not only in terms of office vacancy; the government pointed it out as one of the 40 areas in the Netherlands most desperately in need of improvement on social, physical and economic level. Moreover, the position within the city has changed drastically due to the growing of Utrecht over time. Support for improvement of the position of Kanaleneiland can be expected from different angles. A step by step analysis of Kanaleneiland and the Merwede quarter is described in chapter 7. 2. Context
  • 33. Figure 26. Office space with vacancy in the Merwede quarter 29 3. Theoretical framework To efficiently provide solutions to the problem of vacancy, it is necessary to understand how vacancy occurs. This chapter outlines the theoretical framework that is related to the causes of office vacancy. The theoretical framework forms the basis for the empirical chapter in this part of the thesis. Two sub questions that are being addressed in this chapter are: ““What is the assumed reciprocity between location characteristics and structural office vacancy?” and “What location characteristics are generally believed to be related to the causes of office vacancy, and how can they be measured?”. 3. The location of structurally vacant offices
  • 34. Figure 27. Reasons for vacancy Qualitative Quantitative demand supply time m² m²/employee time quality time A B C Spatial fix Relocation Quality standards Building quality Surplus Hog cycle User demands Location quality time m² time m² 30 3.1 Mismatch A surplus in a market is not something new. There are several issues which can cause vacancy to rise and are all playing a role in current developments; these are (Hek et al., 2004): • Friction • Cycles • Quality standards • Changing user demands • Building quality • Location quality When looking closely at these causes, they can be categorized in quantitative and qualitative aspects and supplemented by two missing aspects; surplus production and spatial fix. Quantitative A higher vacancy percentage than usual can be explained by cyclical vacancy. The phenomenon of cyclical fluctuations of surpluses and deficits is described by the ‘hog cycle’; new buildings are being constructed when demand is high due to deficits but when finished years later this suddenly large supply leads to surpluses in the market. Demand then declines, leading to low construction activities, which creates deficits in the market. The cycle starts all over again. Somewhat different than cyclical fluctuations is surplus production. In the last few decades, there has been a steady surplus of office production in the Netherlands. This surplus production comes in two forms, the first being general surplus production in a geographically determined market, for instance a country or a city. The second type of surplus production on a specific location, caused by the ‘spatial fix’ (Harvey, 2001), caused by difference in insights for geographic answers to demand in certain times. This phenomenon is widely confirmed in the Netherlands by the large differences in vacancy within cities between one location and another. There are also societal and economic changes that affect the user demand. This is what is happening currently because of the economic crisis. Worldwide changes in the economy have largely influenced the real estate market. In the Netherlands there are currently a little less than 2.3 million office jobs (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2011). This implies an average of about 18 m² LFA office space per employee. Due to the recession, the amount of office jobs declined with 1.4% in 2009, leading to a declined demand for office space (ANP, 2010a). The decline of office jobs also leads to an increase of hidden vacancy, since offices are still officially rented but are not being used. Another large
  • 35. Future supply Current demand Current supply AlternativesFuture match Step by step plan Current match Future demand Figure 28. DAS frame (adapted from De Jonge et al., 2009) 31 influence is the societal change of ´the new way of working´, which ensures that companies can cope with less office space. Although no single definition of the new way of working is available, the most common definition is enabling employees to work time and location independently. It is seen as a more efficient way of working; at lower costs and with higher yields and more enjoyable for employees. A Dutch national office market research revealed that 100% of office users expect that their company will use the same amount or less office space in the future (Twynstra Gudde, 2010). Reduction of office space between 30% and 50% can be achieved by reducing the number of workstations (factor 1.1 to 0.7 per FTE on average) and reduction in storage space due to file digitalisation (ING Economisch Bureau, 2011). Currently there is already more than 14% office vacancy in the Netherlands (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2012), but the ING outlines three scenarios in order to get an impression of what the effect of the new way of working on vacancy in the office market could be in 2030. The first scenario shows a decline of another 3 million m² office use only due to the rise in the ageing population. The second scenario foresees 25% of the companies adapting the new way of working, resulting in a decrease of 10% office space in use, bringing total vacancy to 10 million m²; 22% of the office space. The third scenario assumes that every office organization will implement the new way of working. This will result in an additional 16 million m² office vacancy, bringing the total to 22 million m², or 48% of the total office space. In what is considered a normal functioning market, a vacancy percentage of between 4 and 5% is necessary to offer space for companies to move between buildings, which is called frictional vacancy (Hek et al., 2004). This vacancy ought to be occurring up to a maximum of one year after the expiry of the last rental agreement (Keeris and Koppels, 2006). Qualitative Due to all before mentioned aspects, the question of what buildings become vacant can be explained to a certain degree by the quality of the building and the location. Because of technological developments, quality standards are bound to change. The demand changes along at the same speed as the developments do, causing office users to raise their requirements over time. Old buildings can therefore be obsolete in a short amount of time. If either the building or the location cannot meet the demands of office users, they will leave the building eventually in search of a building that better meets their requirements. Even though vacancy rates are this high, the problem is enlarged by new office space still being developed. DAS frame The ‘DAS’ (Designing an Accommodation Strategy) framework has been designed to facilitate the accommodation strategy design process (de Jonge et al., 2009). This framework (figure 28) shows how office user organizations evaluate the current match between demand and supply and how to determine the future match. The process is iterative, when the match is not satisfying, other solutions can be searched for in the supply, or the demand can be changed. This implies that when an office building is being used, it will only stay in use when the building keeps meeting the demands of the office user and no better alternative is available. 3. Theoretical framework
  • 36. Figure 29. Schematic view mismatch demand and supply Figure 30. Conceptual model macro level Demand Supply cause • m² • m² • building • location • building • location Quantitative Qualitative Vacancy Quantitative mismatch Qualitative mismatch Market Building - Location Quantitative Hog cycle Relocation Surplus Qualitative Spatial fix Quality standards User demands Building quality Location quality Quantitative Qualitative 32 Space market This research focusses on the location (and building) characteristics of these existing buildings in order to understand which locations have increased odds to become vacant. Office vacancy is caused by a mismatch between demand and supply, both quantitatively as qualitatively. Quantitative mismatch is caused by the market approached from a space market point of view; a geographically determined office space market. In this market, quantitative demand mainly derives from office employment and the office user’s floor space-to- workers ratio (Muijderman, 2010). Next to the fact that there is a surplus in the market causing vacancy, the qualitative factors influence what buildings become vacant. Qualitative mismatch is caused by building and location characteristics. As the schematic view of the mismatch shows; there is a mismatch in the quantity of the buildings, the building itself and the location of the building, therefore the supply does not meet the demand. Conceptual model macro level The conceptual model shows my perception of why vacancy occurs at macro level at this moment. There is a mismatch between demand and supply, both quantitatively and qualitatively. The supply is much larger than demand, which is a hard boundary. This causes many square meters to become vacant. Which square meters become vacant is mainly decided by the qualitative characteristics of the supply. Buildings that do not meet the demand building-wise and location- wise are the first to become vacant. The conceptual model shows this is not a hard boundary. There are also buildings in use which do not (fully) meet the demands of users. This is one of the main reasons why new buildings are still being developed. This can be explained by the fact that 40% of vacant offices is obsolete and not properly to be used as an office any more (Garschagen, 2008). Most of new build offices are rented from the start, future vacancy can therefore be found mainly in currently existing stock (Korteweg in Garschagen, 2008). The development of new buildings can cause the existing buildings that do not meet the users requirements to become vacant due to the continuous evaluation of the match between demand and supply. Another reason for new development is that many land developments are already set in progress, which involves binding contracts for development. Investment demands can also play a role, investors invest in real estate on large scale due to the expected greater profits than shares, which can lead to overinvestment. 3.2 Location characteristics Much research has been performed considering which location factors increase risk on office vacancy. For this research, the selection of other studies taken into account has been brought back to four, based on my perception of the significance of the studies. The graduation study of De Vrij (2004) is taken into account due to the basis that it has established for the ‘conversion potential meter’. Geraedts and Van der Voordt (2004) have created an instrument for defining the lower end of the office premises market in ‘Good buildings drive out bad buildings’, which is included in the selection. ‘Out of office’ is the PhD thesis of Remøy (2010) in which she studies, amongst other things, the cause of office vacancy. The final included research is the study of Hegeman (2011) which was the most recent study on the relation between a building and office users at the start of this research.
  • 37. Table 8. Overview researches Research Transformatiepoten- tie: meten is weten Good buildings drive out bad buildings Out of Office De kantoorgebruiker en zijn pand Category Factor De Vrij (2004) Geraedts and Van der Voordt (2004) Remøy (2010) Hegeman (2011) Accessibility Car x x x x Airport x x Train x x x x Metro x x x x Tram x x x x Bus x x x x Facilities Catering x x x x Education x General x Medical x Parking x x x x Recreation x Shops x x x x Sports x Public space Furniture x Green x x x Park x x Pavement x x Square x x Street type x View x x Water x Prestige Filthiness x Graffiti x Image x x x Safety x x x Undesirables x Vandalism x Functionality Area x x Finance x x Housing x x x x Employment x x x Vacancy x x Environment Noise x x x Odour x x x Shadow x x Soil x View x Wind x 33 There are several ways of looking at a location. Table 8 gives an overview of what location factors these researchers considered during their study. To make them comparable, the definitions used by the researchers for the location category and location factor are redefined. 3. Theoretical framework
  • 38. Figure 31. Conceptual model meso level Location FunctionalityPrestige Public spaceFacilitiesAccessibility Environment Building Characteristics 34 Cause meso level The categories from research form the input for the conceptual model on meso level (figure 31). It is assumed that depending on the outcome of these six categories, the location can have a match or a mismatch between demand and supply. This table does not give an overview about the measurement of a location factor. Even though researchers may look at the same location factors, there are large differences between their definitions. For instance, while all researchers look at accessibility by car, some might look at travel time, others at travel distance, and even others at congestion or clearness of the route. An overview of these measurements per research can be found in appendix III. In the next section the chosen factors will be elaborated upon. Location factors which have been proven to be significantly correlated with structural office vacancy or that are used by more than half the amount of researchers are taken into account. How to measure them is elaborated upon. Other factors are also introduced based on new insights or theory. 3.2.1 Accessibility There is much consensus about what factors to study in terms of accessibility. All researchers clearly indicate accessibility as an important and elaborated category. Accessibility factors included in the research • Car • Train • Tram • Bus • Modality • City centre Car, airport, train, metro, tram and bus All the researchers (De Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010) take accessibility by car, train, tram and bus into account. A way of making a clear distinction between these types of transport is by categorizing them by their reach; international, inter-urban and intra-urban. International accessibility is provided by airplane. There are only two researchers looking at accessibility of the airport. Since the nearest international airport is Schiphol Amsterdam Airport, which is almost 50 kilometres away from Utrecht, the difference in travel time to the airport shall not differ very much from one location to the other. Therefore this is not a relevant fact for the research and will not be taken into account. Inter-urban accessibility is formed by transport between cities; which included car and train transport and could possible include metro and tram. Accessibility by metro is also being investigated by many researchers, however since there is no metro line available in Utrecht, this factor will not be taken into account. There is a tramline available in Utrecht, which functions as a fast connection between Utrecht and Nieuwegein, therefore it is included in the research as inter- urban transport. The final category is intra-urban transport, consisting of only the bus. The methods to measure these factors differ between researchers. What is actually measured is the relative and the absolute distance. Relative distance is measured by the time it takes to travel from A to B. Absolute distance is measured as the crow flies. The preferred method would be to use relative distance, estimating the travel time taking into account congestion, which occurs often around offices at peak hours. Due to the unavailability of the maximum speed limits and congestion in a database, this is not possible. Absolute distance is not accurate enough, since as the crow flies is not a realistic definition of the route that has to be taken in a city. As an alternative, the travel distance is measured, operationalized by the actual route in meter between point A and B.
  • 39. Figure 32. Modality (Goudappel Coffeng DTZ, 2011) ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Bunnik Houten Vleuten Maarssen Breukelen Bilthoven Utrecht Zuilen Houten Castellum Utrecht Terwijde Utrecht Lunetten Utrecht Overvecht Hollandsche Rading Utrecht Leidsche Rijn Utrecht Vaartsche Rijn Best bereikbare gebieden per vervoerwijze all other values 12 21 ad d dsa fds fsd Zwaanshoek Zwaanshoek N205 Lisse N208 Lisse - Figure 33. Fragment of three order analysis of Haarlem (de Bois, 2010) 35 Modality Goudappel Coffeng developed an accessibility map of Utrecht together with DTZ (Goudappel Coffeng and DTZ, 2011). For this they calculated for every postal code area within the region of Utrecht, how many people can access the locations within an acceptable travelling time. This is done for every modality, where travel time by car is acceptable within 45 minutes, travelling time by public transport is 30 minutes and travel time by bicycle is 20 minutes. This generates a score for every location, which can be understood as a score for labour accessibility. The map (figure 32) shows the location and the type(s) of transport by which they are best accessible. They define a link between modality and office vacancy. Modality is taken into account for the research. There are seven predefined categories; (1) car, (2) public transport, (3) bicycle, (4) car/public transport, (5) car/bicycle, (6) public transport/bicycle and (7) car/public transport/ bicycle. City centre Peter de Bois developed a method to test the cohesion of the network of the city based on cognitive psychology, the ability to understand the city network (De Bois, 2011). This method, the three order method, talks about anchor points; important areas or destinations in the city (usually the city centre), and their connection to the rest of the city within three steps or orders. Each step represents a change in direction. The connections are expressed in the fit between anchor points and patterns. The author states that if the cohesion requires more than 3 orders, this suggest a poor condition for social economic investments. “The essence of a vital city is the fit between the system of travelling and staying, between the physical system which due to its cohesion acts as a good urban frame, and the economic system which due to its vitality acts as a good system of anchor points and patterns. It offers the possibility to identify areas, linked to individual and collective circuits, and outline the framework for social cohesion and urban quality” (De Bois, 2011). This method suggests that the better the frame the city, the better that city will be used. The method is applied as follows. First an area as starting point has to be defined, of which the cohesion is to be analysed. The other areas that need to be defined are the anchor points, the important areas or destinations. Then the three orders can be distinguished. To the first order belong the main roads that cross or touch the starting area. To the second order belong the roads that connect with the first order roads. To the third order belong the roads that connect with the second order roads. When the destination area, the anchor points, are connected to the circuit within this three orders, this means that the frame of the city facilitates these destination areas well. The example in figure 33 shows part of a research conducted in Haarlem. Here the eastern city limit is taken as starting point (the red line). The first order is drawn with a black continuous line, the second order with a black dotted line. The anchor points are the coloured dots. The image shows how the city limit is connected to the anchor points of the city within two orders. As De Bois links economic investments to these three orders, this is incorporated in the research. In a recent study DTZ states that cities with a historic city centre have higher odds not to become vacant (DTZ Zadelhoff, 2013). The factor is measured by the connectivity of the urban fabric to the historic centre, which is the main destination. There are two possible outcomes; (1) accessible within three orders and (2) not accessible within three orders. 3. Theoretical framework
  • 40. verhouding parkeren = verhuurbaar vloeroppervlak aantal parkeerplaatsen Figure 34. Parking measurement ratio 36 3.2.2 Facilities From the eight facility factors which are being measured by researchers, three are being measured by more than half. These are parking facilities, catering facilities and shops. Facility factors included in the research • Parking • Catering • Shops Parking Parking facilities are measured by all researchers (De Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010). The ratio between parking space and office space gives an indication of how well car parking is being facilitated, which is a method used in most research. Therefore the ratio LFA/parking place is measured. Another proven method of measuring parking is by making a distinction between on- and off-site parking, and parking on street level or stacked parking (Cutter and DeWoody, 2010). From theory one would expect that offices with on-site parking are structurally vacant more often than offices with off- site parking. This is what is stated in the investigation of Cutter and DeWoody (2010) who state that nearby off-site parking is positively associated with property prices. Catering, shops Catering and shop facilities, measured in all of the studies (De Vrij, 2004, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Remøy, 2010) can also be defined as worker amenities. These facilities are available in a database by Locatus. This database has not been made available for the research, instead Locatus researched the catering and shopping facilities within a distance of 500 meter for all of the office buildings in the dataset. Locatus measures these by the as the crow flies-method or absolute distance. The facilities measured in the category catering are: cafés, restaurants and café-restaurants. The facilities measured in shops are shops for daily necessities: supermarkets and minimarkets. The distance of 500 meter is taken for this is assumed to be the maximum distance people are willing to walk. 3.2.3 Public space Although in all of the four studies (Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010, De Vrij, 2004) a category of public space is incorporated, only one the location factors is used by more than half the researchers. This indicates that the general opinion is that public space has influence on the well-functioning of an area, but that it is unclear what is important about that public space. The amount of square meter public green, used by three researchers (Hegeman, 2011, Remøy, 2010, De Vrij, 2004), can give an indication of how well public space is provided for and will be incorporated in the research. This does however leave out paved public space. Therefore other factors are introduced in this category. Public space factors • Green • Type of public space • Assessment public space o Protection o Comfort o Enjoyment
  • 41. Figure 35. Types of space (adapted from Gehl, 2006) Urban stroll ways Transport hubs Local city space Staged city space Ceremonial city space Aquatic city space Space for play and sport Main city space Green city space Secluded city space Temporary city space Deserted city space Waterfront city space 37 Green Public green is reported in WistUdata (Gemeente Utrecht, 2012c) and is measured by the amount of square meter within the areas as defined by the municipality. Type of public space It is possible to make subdivisions in public space by their type. ‘New city life’ (Gehl, 2006) talks about thirteen types of (public) space, in which the public space within a visible distance is categorized. • (1) Urban stroll ways Boulevards, avenues, streets and byways where directional movement is the key. • (2) Main city space The main squares of the city or district, space that frames many different events. • (3) Local city space Space that primarily serves local users and incorporates playing and staying. • (4) Secluded city space Location and design offer fewer options, simple furniture for staying perhaps. • (5) Ceremonial city space Often a formal forecourt for seats of power, space used for celebrations, ceremonies and cheering crowds. • (6) Deserted city space Space featuring large surfaces with few activities and buildings with few entrances. • (7) Transport hubs Space dominated by people in transit, going about their daily activities and errands. • (8) Green city space City parks and urban oases, a framework for recreation from sunbathing to sport. • (9) Staged city space Space with carefully planned design elements to create special, primarily sensory experiences. • (10) Temporary city space Space intended for temporary use, often on land planned for other purposes. • (11) Aquatic city space With water the dominant surface, this space often creates identity in the city scene and offers various activities on and in the water. • (12) Waterfront city space Access to and view of the water give these spaces added value and a myriad of possible activities. • (13) City space for play and sport Designed for activities that require permanent specialized equipment. 3. Theoretical framework
  • 42. traffic walk stand sit see talk play scale climate crime sensory experiences sensory experiences Good Average Poor protectionenjoymentcomfort Figure 36. Quality criteria (adapted from Gehl, 2006) 38 Assessment public space Gehl also gives some interesting perspectives of what three categories to look at when looking at the environment; protection, comfort and enjoyment (Gehl, 2006). The urban space can be rated for the ability to provide protection within three categories; (1) traffic, (2) crime and (3) sensory experiences. The urban space can be rated for the ability to provide comfort within six categories; (1) walk, (2) stand, (3) sit, (4) see, (5) talk and (6) play. The urban space can be rated for the ability to provide enjoyment within three categories; (1) scale, (2) climate and (3) sensory experiences. This method offers the option to rate public space elements as (1) poor, (2) average and (3) good, giving a total score of between 3-9 points for protection, between 6-18 points for comfort and between 3-9 points for enjoyment. The public space total is a score between 12 and 36 points. The absence of some of these elements could lead to not meeting the demands of office users, therefore leading to higher vacancy. Public space within visible distance is assessed on these factors. 3.2.4 Prestige Since all four researchers (De Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010) mention prestige in their research, factors of prestige will be incorporated and tested in the research. Since prestige is difficult to operationalize, some proxies for prestige are taken into account. Prestige has two factors which are being used by more than half the researchers, which are image and safety. Prestige factors included in the research • Image rating • Safety • Vandalism • Criminality • Traffic problems • Public space problems • Liveability Image rating The image is monitored by the municipality of Utrecht (Gemeente Utrecht, 2012c) by calculating the average grade on a scale from zero to ten given by the inhabitants to their sub district. This factor comes closest to measuring prestige, in contrast to the other factors which are proxies for prestige. This factor is studied in three of the studies (De Vrij, 2004, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Hegeman, 2011) Safety, vandalism, criminality There is an objective and subjective side to safety. Figures on objective safety include number of offenses, vandalism and victims. Subjective safety is about the feeling of security. Both types can go hand in hand, but not necessarily. People may feel perfectly safe in a neighbourhood where other people might not dare to go. A feeling of safety can be increased by the familiarity of a neighbourhood (Ouwehand et al., 2008). The data from the municipality (Gemeente Utrecht, 2012c) is obtained. Safety is investigated in three of the four studies (De Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Remøy, 2010). Safety is measured by the percentage of respondents that feel unsafe often in their sub district. Vandalism and criminality are both measured by the permillage of registered incidents per 1,000 inhabitants plus employees. Traffic problems, public space problems Another indicator could be the problems that arises in areas. Instead of measuring accessibility by car and the quality of the public space, figures from the municipality (Gemeente Utrecht, 2012c) are used to indicate the opinion about these matters, measured by the percentage of respondents that indicate problems in their area.
  • 43. Figure 37. Liveability in Utrecht (RIGO, 2012) 39 Liveability RIGO developed maps which show the liveability for all living environments within the Netherlands, called the ‘Leefbaarometer’ (RIGO Research en Advies, 2012). This tool predicts the satisfaction of inhabitants in relation to their direct living environment. The same satisfaction could apply to the office users in these areas. The possible scores are: (1) very negative, (2) negative, (3) moderate, (4) moderately positive, (5) positive, (6) very positive and (7) excellent. 3.2.5 Functionality There are two location factors that are being researched by at least half the researchers. These are housing (De Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010) and employment (Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004, Remøy, 2010). Other ways of defining the functionality of an area can be described as the type of office location and the mix of functions. Functionality factors included in the research • Housing • Employment • Type of location • Mix of functions Housing Functionality talks about the different kinds of functions in an area, specifically housing and offices, and the amount of square meters assigned to these functions. The available data from the municipality (Gemeente Utrecht, 2012c) is about housing; the average size in square meter per dwelling in the area and the total amount of dwellings in an area. Employment Employment talks about employment in an area; the amount of jobs or more specifically the amount of office jobs. In this research employment is measured by the total number of jobs in an area (Gemeente Utrecht, 2012c), due to the unavailability of specifically the amount of office jobs. Type of location One method of looking at the location is to define types of locations focusing on the context. The Dutch firm Architekten Cie distinguishes six different types of office locations (de Architekten Cie, 2007); (1) Historical Historic buildings of modest scale in mixed centre environments, usually positioned on canals. Usually appointed monument and part of a conservation area. Building period between 1900-1920. (2) Pre modern First buildings of larger size and new construction methods. Mostly related to historical centre environments. Often built in locations where 18th and 19th century building blocks are demolished, for example for traffic breakthroughs in the 30s and 40s. Building period between 1920-1940. (3) Businesses/offices First city expansion according to the functionalist urbanism. Autonomous work areas near the city, accessible from by and constricted in green areas. Classification of businesses and offices. Building period between 1940-1960. 3. Theoretical framework
  • 44. Figure 38. Overview office environments (adapted from Architekten Cie, 2007) historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920 bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960 2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000 8 historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920 bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960 2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000 8 historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920 bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960 2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000 8 historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920 bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960 2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000 8 historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920 bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960 2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000 8 historisch - 1900 premodern - 1920 bedrijven/kantoren - 1940 1e gen. kantorenparken - 1960 2e gen. kantorenparken - 1980 all inclusieve milieus - 2000 8 Historical Businesses/offices Second generation parks Pre modern First generation parks All inclusive environment 40 (4) First generation office park Evolved locations specialized in offices. The structure is similar to post-war housing estates. Greenery and an all-round development. Accessibility by road. Visibility from the highway begins to be an issue. Building period between 1960-1980. (5) Second generation office park Multimodal accessibility from road and rail is important. Areas are developed between station and highway exit. The visibility from the road and traffic flows are increasingly important. Building period between 1980-2000. (6) All-inclusive environment Development of new urban centre environments in high densities in the vicinity of the historic city is a new challenge. Housing, employment and facilities in a balanced urban mix together. Building period between 2000-now. Mix of functions Geografiek defines four different types of office locations measured by their mix of functions (Geografiek, 2011). The four different types are: (1) monofunctional office area, (2) spread offices in business district, (3) Offices in mixed environment - low density and (4) Offices in mixed environment - high density. 3.2.6 Environment There are six factors indicated in the category environment, but only two that are being researched in more than half the researchers. Both noise and odour are taken into account by three of the four researchers (De Vrij, 2004, Hegeman, 2011, Geraedts and Van der Voordt, 2004). Figures about odour, shadow, soil, view and wind are not available, leaving only noise. Environment factor included in the research • Noise Noise Noise pollution can have an influence on the wellbeing of people in an area. Noise levels that were being measured are those caused by car traffic or by trains (Gemeente Utrecht, 2006). There were six predefined categories; (1) 55 dB, (2) 55-59 dB, (3) 60-64 dB, (4) 65-69 dB, (5) 70-74 dB and (6) 74 dB. 3.3 Building characteristics The building quality plays a large role as well as the location quality. In a recent study Remøy investigated the link between building characteristics with structural office vacancy (Remøy, 2010). This study revealed that structurally vacant offices: • were constructed between 1980 and 1995 • are functionally obsolete (inefficient and inflexible) • have glass façades • have a low quality interior appearance • are in technical decay Ideally, all these characteristics would be incorporated in this research, to rule out that an office building is structurally vacant because of the building’s characteristics. However due to the limitation in time, the functional