The Day The Music Died
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This document discusses the history and current state of the music industry, particularly how social media and digital technologies have impacted revenue streams. It traces the industry from the early 1900s establishment of music publishers and record labels through challenges brought by radio, home taping, and digital formats. By the 1990s, the record business was in disarray but has since seen some recovery through services like iTunes, though international sales and CDs are declining and streaming continues to grow in importance. The future of the industry remains uncertain as business models evolve around new technologies and consumer behaviors.
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The Day The Music Died
- 1. TThhee DDaayy TThheeMMuussiicc DDiieedd Social Media and the Music Industry Social Media Conference NW Bellingham, WA Sept 10, 2008
- 4. incl. Digital $10.4B Source: RIAA $14.8B $7.9B Recording Industry Revenue
- 5. UUSS CCoonnssttiittuuttiioonn SSeeccttiioonn 88 SSeeccttiioonn 88 ““TToo pprroommoottee tthhee PPrrooggrreessss ooff SScciieennccee aanndd uusseeffuull AArrttss,, bbyy sseeccuurriinngg ffoorr lliimmiitteedd TTiimmeess ttoo AAuutthhoorrss aanndd IInnvveennttoorrss tthhee eexxcclluussiivvee RRiigghhtt ttoo tthheeiirr rreessppeeccttiivvee WWrriittiinnggss aanndd DDiissccoovveerriieess..””
- 6. Advertisers Radio Performers Audience 1919 1929 Publishers Songwriters 1899 Labels QuickTime™ and a Animation decompressor are needed to see this picture. 1909 $ $ $
- 7. Publishers Audience Radio ASCAP CHARTER American Society of Composers, Publishers and Authors Not For Broadcast A collective bargaining association representing the interests of its various Record Labels 1929 1939 1949
- 8. Song Rights Phonorecord Public Performance Synch Phonorecords Broadcast $ % or Fee none $ % or Fee ¢ Statutory Rate $ Negotiated Rate Consumer Product $ % or Fee none
- 9. Publishers + = are needed to see this picture. Record Labels Audience Broadcast QuickTime™ and a Animation decompressor
- 10. 1966 my darn good mixtape 1971 1979 1985
- 11. QuickTime™ and a Animation decompressor are needed to see this picture. Digital Transition...? AAuuddiioo HHoommee RReeccoorrddiinngg AAcctt ooff 11999922 DDiiggiittaall PPeerrffoorrmmaannccee iinn SSoouunndd RReeccoorrddiinnggss AAcctt ooff 11999955 DDiiggiittaall MMiilllleenniiuumm CCooppyyrriigghhtt AAcctt 11999988 Internet .COM Web Netscape Win95 1983 1988 1991 1994 1995
- 12. Song Rights 1.1 Sound Recording Public Performance Synch Phonorecords Broadcast $ % or Fee none % or Fee ¢ $ Statutory Rate $ $ Negotiated Rate % or Fee none Digital $ ¢ 000011000011000011000011001100001100001100001100001100110000110000 % or Fee Statutory Rate 110011000011111100001100001100001100001100110000110000110000110000 110011000011000011001100001111110000110000110011001100001100001100 0011000011001100001100001100110000111111000011000011000011 Consumer Product
- 13. Truth is, the record business was pretty messed up by the mid-90’s
- 14. Launched 1999 Summit 2000 Peaked 2001 Bankrupt 2002 QuickTime™ and a Animation decompressor are needed to see this picture.
- 15. P2P
- 16. Apple
- 17. 80 Billion? Apple vs P2P 2 Billion P2P 5 Billion iTunes TToottaall PPeerr MMoonntthh
- 18. Music Today... • Apple dominates digital • CD, ringtones dropping • International = fuggedaboutit • DRM mostly dead (except at Apple) • ASCAP, BMI at record revenues • Synch growing • Publishing assets dominate balance sheets QuickTime™ and a Animation decompressor are needed to see this picture. Radio: “He’s only mostly dead.”
- 19. Less Music?
- 25. QuickTime™ and a Animation decompressor are needed to see this picture.
- 26. Attention Demand music now Control Copy
- 28. TThhoouugghhttss
- 29. Thank You! matthew@socratech.com www.socratech.com
Editor's Notes
- USPTO and Copyright Office
- assemble in 3 steps - radio-to-pub, radio-to-record. save ‘both’ for after Rights table
- assemble in 3 steps - radio-to-pub, radio-to-record. save ‘both’ for after Rights table
- The Audio Home Recording Act of 1992 (AHRA) amended the United States copyright law by adding Chapter 10, "Digital Audio Recording Devices and Media". The act enabled the release of recordable digital formats such as Sony and Philips' Digital Audio Tape without fear of contributory infringement lawsuits.The RIAA and music publishers, concerned that consumers' ability to make perfect digital copies of music would destroy the market for audio recordings, had threatened to sue companies and had lobbied Congress to pass legislation imposing mandatory copy protection technology and royalties on devices and media.The AHRA is often overlooked,[citation needed] but it establishes a number of important precedents in US copyright law that defined the debate between device makers and the content industry for the ensuing two decades. These include: * the first government technology mandate in the copyright law, requiring all digital audio recording devices sold, manufactured or imported in the US (excluding professional audio equipment) to include the Serial Copy Management System (SCMS). * the first anti-circumvention provisions in copyright law, later applied on a much broader scale by the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. * the first government-imposed royalties on devices and media, a portion of which is paid to the record industry directly.The Act also includes blanket protection from infringement actions for private, non-commercial analog audio copying, and for digital audio copies made with digital audio recording devices. *** Act of 1995 basically defined digital performance as a new kind of performance. nominal logic in the Act appears to be the fact that radio is distance-limited and digital is not also established interactive vs non-interactive *** DMCA established SoundExchange. Dumbasses.
- What was messed up about the record business heading into 2000 Hits Business Big Box Tarnished rep bad business model (artists screwed over) endless string of teenage dreamers the LP ‘forced package’ (versus the single)
- Question is, what’s the social media picture for music
- MySpace $587M
- Last.fm @$280M
- click on Pandora main pane to play sad but true, they’re probably going to fold
- Music business prognosis --More talking about music than ever before --More business use of music than ever before --More concerts than ever before BUT --Bundled phonorecords aren’t going to be a $14B business ever again --Internet radio isn’t going to cut it unless somebody does something really smart with wireless --The Web is notably silent. To survive, the music industry has to soundtrack the world and monetize their role in attention. And it has to be easy. --imagine last.fm on cell phones --the copy doesn’t have value. the attention has value. disseminate the copies meaningfully to reach the attention --Musicians: live concerts --Attention creates demand, which (could) lead to commercial licensing --ASCAP just settled with AOL, Real, Yahoo: $100M for 2002-2009 (April 30, 2008)
- Watts-Strogatz - 1998 1000 nodes, 5000 links (10 nearest neighbors) Degree of separation: @50 Add 1% (50 ‘weak links’) Degree of separation: 7 No real effect on local clustering - you mostly know your neighbors Planet of 6 billion people Degree of separation: 60 million Add .03% random links (3-hundredths of one percent) Degree of separation drops to 5
- Lessons for other businesses * ‘The New Broadcasting’ - Broadcatch * The role of ‘free’ content in starting communities and relationships - but please understand copyright and please please take a look at Creative Commons * The importance of IP * Industry structures & legal frameworks have a direct effect - industry associations (e.g. TAG) can make a real long-term difference * Draw a picture of your industry structure * Analyze: Architecture, Culture, Market, Legal * Music got shoved into the background, and we haven’t even begun the pervasive era. what’s next? how do you keep from being background noise? [REAL RELATIONSHIPS] * Assuming you’re in control is fatal. surrendering control and taxing the interest that follows....$$ RADIO-->Social Media (NOT neutral) --> Music isn’t dead, just not a control industry any more -->another giant change