1) The document discusses the key differences between probability, uncertainty, and risk. Probability refers to quantifying the likelihood of specific events, uncertainty arises when true probabilities are unknown, and risk combines probability and consequences. 2) Examples are given for how probability, uncertainty, and risk apply in cricket and the development of the atomic bomb. In cricket, probability relates to scoring runs while uncertainty comes from external factors; risk is the chance of getting out. For the atomic bomb, probability was its successful detonation depending on known factors, while uncertainty came from unknown science and risks involved consequences of failure.

1. BE4604
Proposals for Evidence Based Design
ASSIGNMENT-01
Debanjana Das Siddhi Vashi Mohammed Umar
Probability, Uncertainty, Risk
BE4604 Proposals for Evidence Based
Design
"Probability", "Uncertainty" and "Risk“

2. decreasing
increasing
WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN "PROBABILITY", "UNCERTAINTY" AND "RISK“?
PROBABILITY
Probability deals with quantifying the likelihood
of specific events occurring (ranging from
impossible to certain).
UNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty arises when the true probabilities of
events are unknown or difficult to estimate.
RISK
Risk combines the probability of an event with
the potential consequences or impact of that
event, providing a more comprehensive
understanding of potential negative outcomes.
Probability
Uncertainty
Fig. 1: Relation in between "Probability", "Uncertainty" and "Risk“
Source: https://practicalrisktraining.com/making-smarter-choices-under-certainty-risk-and-uncertainty
RISK
APPLICATIONS
• Finance & Investment
• Business & Decision-making
• Weather Forecasting & Climate Science
• AI & Machine Learning
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3. CRICKET
Probability :
• When a skilled batsman faces a bowler, the probability of scoring a run
depends on various factors such as the bowler's skill, the pitch conditions,
and the batsman's form. For example, if the bowler is inexperienced or if the
batsman is in excellent form, the probability of scoring runs or hitting a
boundary increases.
• This probability is typically represented by a number between 0 and 1, where
0 means it's impossible (e.g., getting out on the first ball), and 1 means it's
certain (e.g., scoring a run from an easy delivery)
Uncertainty :
• No matter how experienced the players are, there's always uncertainty in
cricket due to various uncontrollable factors.
• Weather conditions, pitch behaviour, unexpected turn or bounce, and even
the pressure of a crucial match can introduce uncertainty.
Risk:
• The risk is the potential of getting out (losing their wicket) in pursuit of
scoring more runs quickly.
• On the other hand, a batsman can choose to play defensively, reducing the
risk of getting out but potentially scoring fewer runs.
• The level of risk a batsman takes depends on their probability of winning
against that bowler factoring in the uncertainties involved
Probability of scoring a boundary
Probability of scoring a boundary under
uncertain conditions
Probability of scoring a boundary under uncertain pitch
conditions
Low Risk
EXAMPLE-1
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4. OPPENHEIMER’S ATOMIC
BOMB
Probability:
• In the context of developing the atomic bomb, probability can be related to the
likelihood of the bomb's successful detonation.
• The probability of successfully creating a functional bomb depended on numerous
quantifiable factors, such as the scientific knowledge available at the time, the
technology used, the expertise of the scientists and engineers, and the resources
allocated to the project.
Uncertainty :
• Uncertainty played a significant role throughout the development of the atomic bomb.
• Many aspects of nuclear physics and engineering were not fully understood during that
time, and the scientists faced numerous challenges and unknowns.
• Uncertainty arose due to the complexity of nuclear reactions in quantum physics, the
behavior of fissile materials, and the potential for unforeseen problems in the bomb's
design and construction.
Risk:
• The consequences of a failed test or an accidental detonation considering the
uncertainties involved despite of the high probability would have been disastrous.
• The near zero probability of an unstoppable atomic chain reaction that threatened to
destroy the whole planet was a very serious risk.
RISK (Near-zero Probability / High Uncertainty)
PROBABILITY
EXAMPLE-2
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