The Patek Philippe reference 3448 was the brand's first self-winding perpetual calendar wristwatch introduced in 1962. Over the past 26 years, auction prices for the reference 3448 have increased steadily, with the average hammer price rising from under £30,000 in 1989-1995 to over £200,000 in 2011-2015. Christie's has achieved the highest average sale prices for the reference 3448, driven by record-breaking auctions of rare pink gold and platinum examples. Case material, year of production, and whether the watch is accompanied by its original box and papers are key factors that influence realized prices at auction.

1. Market Update
January 2016
PATEK PHILIPPE
Ref. 3448

2. Introduction
2
Introduced in 1962, the reference 3448 was nothing less than the very first perpetual
calendar from Patek Philippe with an automatic movement. And only 586 examples
were manufactured in the span of its 20 years of existence.
“! “!(HODINKEE)
Patek Philippe’s reference 3448 was the
first self-winding perpetual calendar
wristwatch made by Patek Philippe and
was introduced into the market in 1962.
The watch was fitted with a new in-
house calibre, the 27-460Q, which was
patented by the firm.
Although the majority of production
was cased in 18k yellow gold, rare
examples are known to exist in other
metals: 25 watches at most with a white
gold case, two with platinum cases,
and two other in rose gold.
The 3448’s specifications are legendary:
37.5 mm caliber Cal. 27-460 Q
automatic, Geneva hallmark, moon
phases, day and date display and
perpetual calendar, 37 jewels, Gyromax
balance, 18K gold wheel, matte silver
dial, applied gold batons for squared
figures, and auxiliary edges indicating
the date and moon phases.
In 1981, reference 3448 was discontinued
to make way for the reference 3450 with
leap year indication.
Although only 586 examples were ever
produced, ref. 3448 has proven extremely
popular among collectors, and examples
have been offered at auction 189 times
since 1989, including every major case
and dial configuration.
This report surveys the performance of
ref. 3448 at auction, with a particular
emphasis on the past 10 years, during
which the reference’s popularity has
skyrocketed.
Please note that all prices referred to are
hammer prices and therefore exclude the
buyer’s premium. Prices are reported in
GBP (pounds sterling) at rates determined
by the auction houses. Also note that
historical results have not been adjusted
for inflation.
PATEK PHILIPPE
An 18k yellow gold moonphase automatic
wristwatch from the collection of Ringo Starr
£122,800 (hammer)
Julien’s (Los Angeles), 3 December 2015

3. Performance since 1989
3
Lots offered/sold
189/153
Unsold rate
19%
Total sales
£20 million
Average hammer price
£133,354
Average hammer price (1989-1995)
£30,000
Unsold rate (1989-1995)
60%
Average hammer price (2011-2015)
£200,000
Unsold rate (2011-2015)
6%
14 16 35 43 45
21
4
4
4 3
£28,426
£59,418
£98,611
£139,713
£201,579
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
1989-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015
Lotsoffered
AveragepriceGBP
Patek Philippe 3448: average hammer price and number of lots offered per year (1989-2015)
Sold Unsold Average of Hammer Price GBP
Auction prices for the Patek Philippe ref.
3448 have witnessed steady growth over
the past 26 years.
Since 1989, the average hammer price per
5-year period has risen consistently, from
under £30,000 per lot in 1989-1995 to just
over £200,000 in 2011-2015, representing
an increase of over 650% or 23% per year.
Effectively, collectors who purchased a ref.
3448 at any time prior to 2006 were in a
position to double their money within 10
years.
During this time, the number of lots sold
increased from 14 in 1989-1995 to 48 in
2011-2015, with a corresponding
decrease in unsold lots, from 21 in
1989-1995 to just 3 in 2011-2015. This
suggests that ref. 3448 has become more
popular with collectors over the past 20
years.

4. Performance over the past 10 years
4
Lots offered/sold
95/88
Unsold rate
7%
Total sales
£15 million
Average hammer price
£168,572
Average hammer price (2006)
£112,100
Unsold rate (2006)
23%
Average hammer price (2015)
£204,475
Unsold rate (2015)
0%
If we turn our eye to the past 10 years, we
see that the trend has been positive
overall, with average hammer prices
nearly doubling during this time.
However, the past 10 years have been
characterised by repeated cycles of
volatility, with highs in 2007, 2009, 2011
and 2013 having given way to corrections
the following year, then subsequent
recoveries.
Over the past three years, supply appears
to have dried up, with fewer than 10
examples offered per year, down from 14
in 2011 and 15 in 2012. This suggests that
collectors may be holding onto their ref.
3448s for longer.
Significantly, every ref. 3448 offered at
auction since 2013 has found a buyer, and
only 7 lots in the last 10 years have failed
to sell.
10
11
6
8 8
13 13
7
8
4
3
1
1
2
£112,100
£172,900
£130,550
£152,750
£130,263
£232,108
£129,369
£288,657
£153,288
£204,475
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
£300,000
£350,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lotsoffered
AveragepriceGBP
Patek Philippe 3448: average hammer price and number of lots offered per year (2006-2015)
Lots sold Lots unsold Average of hammer price GBP

5. Performance against estimates
5
On average, the Patek Philippe ref. 3448
has outperformed the auction houses’
pre-sale estimates over the past 10 years.
On only two occasions, in 2008 and 2009,
did the average hammer price fall within
the upper range of the pre-sale estimates,
and only by a small margin.
On the whole, however, average prices
have not exceeded the estimates by a
great margin, except in 2011, when a
previously unknown 18k pink gold cased
example from 1968 sold at Christie’s for
£1.45 million (hammer), setting the all-
time record price paid at auction for a ref.
3448.
In 2013, another example (this time in
white gold) sold for over £1 million, again
at Christie’s; however, that year, the
average estimates were closer in line with
the results.
£112,100
£172,900
£130,550
£152,750
£130,263
£232,108
£129,369
£288,657
£153,288
£204,475
£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
£300,000
£350,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Patek Philippe 3448: average hammer price and pre-sale estimates per year
(2006-2015)
Average of High Estimates Average of Low Estimates Average of Hammer Price
PATEK PHILIPPE
An extraordinarily fine and rare 18K pink gold
automatic perpetual calendar wristwatch with
moon phases, original certificate and box
£1.45 million (hammer)
Christie’s (Geneva), 14 November 2011
RECORD PRICE FOR A REF. 3448 AT AUCTION

6. Performance by auction house and geography
6
Christie’s holds the lion’s share of the
auction market for ref. 3448s, having
sold the 8 most expensive examples
(Phillips and Antiquorum round out the
top 10), including the only pink gold
example, the only platinum example,
and the only two examples to have
ever sold for £1 million. The average
price paid at Christie’s is also
significantly higher than that paid for
ref. 3448s elsewhere.
60
18
9
1
4
1
2
£197,227
£107,500 £107,300
£100,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
Switzerland USA Hong Kong UK
Lotsoffered
AveragepriceGBP
Patek Philippe 3448: average hammer price and
number of lots offered by geography (2006-2015)
Lots sold Lots unsold Average of Hammer Price GBP
Hong Kong
6%
Switzerland
80%
UK
1%
USA
13%
Patek Philippe 3448: value of sales by geography
(2006-2015)
Over 80% of the turnover from Patek
Philippe ref. 3448s is generated in
Switzerland, and nearly 70% of all ref. 3448
lots are sold there. The average price
achieved in Switzerland is considerably
higher than that achieve in other salerooms.
On average, there is almost no difference in
price between examples sold in the USA
and those sold in Hong Kong.
Christie's
63%
Antiquorum
17%
Sotheby's
15%
Others
5%
Patek Philippe 3448: value of sales by auction
house (2006-2015)
44
5
17
22
2
1
4
£212,350
£141,760
£133,171
£114,464
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
Lotsoffered
AveragepriceGBP
Patek Philippe 3448: average hammer price
and number of lots offered by auction house
(2006-2015)
Sold Unsold Average of Hammer Price

7. Factors affecting value
7
Case Material
On average, the highest prices for ref.
3448s over the past 10 years were
achieved for one-off watches with special
case materials, i.e. pink gold or platinum.
The most common case material, yellow
gold, fetched an average price of
£108,592, and the second most common
material, white gold, achieved an average
hammer price of £261,478. We expect
white gold will continue to command a
premium going forward.
Year of Production
The ref. 3448 was produced for roughly 20
years, from 1962 to 1981. We have
divided this period into four groups and
sought to determine whether earlier
production models tend to achieve better
results at auction, as is often the case for
other watches. At first glance, it would
appear that examples made between
1966 and 1970 command a premium over
the others. However, if we ignore the
record price of £1.45 million paid for the
pink gold example from 1968, the average
price for that period is broadly consistent
with the price paid for later periods.
Box and/or Papers
As would be expected, we have
confirmed that watches sold with their
original boxes and/or papers command a
premium over those that are not
accompanied by the items. Watches with
boxes and/or papers have been offered
21 times in the past 10 years, and tend to
achieve twice the hammer price of a
regular example.
1 1
23
63
2
5
£1,440,000
£539,000
£261,478
£108,592
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
£0
£200,000
£400,000
£600,000
£800,000
£1,000,000
£1,200,000
£1,400,000
£1,600,000
18k Pink Platinum 18k White 18k Yellow
Lotsoffered
AveragepriceGBP
Patek Philippe 3448: average premium price and
number of lots offered by case material
(2006-2015)
Lots sold Lots unsold Average of hammer price GBP
5
20
31 30
1
2
1 2
£113,820
£216,690
£153,365
£164,503
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
1962-1965 1966-1970 1971-1975 1976-1981
Lotsoffered
AveragepriceGBP
Patek Philippe 3448: average premium price and
number of lots offered by period of production
(2006-2015)
Lots sold Lots unsold Average of hammer price GBP
19 69
2
5£288,905
£135,436
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
£300,000
£350,000
Box and/or papers No box/papers
Lotsoffered
AveragepriceGBP
Patek Philippe 3448: average premium price and
number of lots offered by 'box and
papers' (2006-2015)
Lots sold Lots unsold Average of hammer price GBP