The US non-farm payroll report for March will be important but not the sole focus, as Greece's decision to skip an IMF loan payment and fluctuations in German bond yields will also impact markets. While job growth is forecasted to be 222,000 and unemployment at 5.4%, the hourly earnings number will be closely watched. Given recent mixed economic data, a headline number over 180,000 that shows rising hourly earnings would support the USD. Synergy FX provides trading recommendations, such as selling EUR/USD if it reaches 1.1285 with a target of 1.0880, as Greece's overt defiance of IMF mandates is a game changer in negotiations.
Trump/Kim, the FOMC and ECB all crucial this weekHantec Markets
After the acrimonious culmination of the G7 meeting at the weekend, financial markets are already looking forward to a hectic few days ahead. A crucial geopolitical summit between the US and North Korea, in addition to crucial central bank decisions from the FOMC and ECB. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
Let Them Eat Chaos - A Currency Outlook for 2017World First
2016 was the year of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. The politics have only just begun however and we are set up for one of the most interesting and unpredictable years of geopolitical pressures and macroeconomic forces on currency in living memory.
2017 will be the year of Trump, China and tax cuts, Article 50 and Brexit negotiations, French and German elections and a lot more in between. The dollar is strong but can it get stronger?
Synergy FX - Forex Market Analysis | 24th July 2015Synergy FX
Synergy FX - Back-up the truck and buy dollars. The last week of July and the first week of August are traditionally quiet times in the FX market as summertime currency flows in the Northern Hemisphere usually contain price action within recent ranges.
Trump/Kim, the FOMC and ECB all crucial this weekHantec Markets
After the acrimonious culmination of the G7 meeting at the weekend, financial markets are already looking forward to a hectic few days ahead. A crucial geopolitical summit between the US and North Korea, in addition to crucial central bank decisions from the FOMC and ECB. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
Let Them Eat Chaos - A Currency Outlook for 2017World First
2016 was the year of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. The politics have only just begun however and we are set up for one of the most interesting and unpredictable years of geopolitical pressures and macroeconomic forces on currency in living memory.
2017 will be the year of Trump, China and tax cuts, Article 50 and Brexit negotiations, French and German elections and a lot more in between. The dollar is strong but can it get stronger?
Synergy FX - Forex Market Analysis | 24th July 2015Synergy FX
Synergy FX - Back-up the truck and buy dollars. The last week of July and the first week of August are traditionally quiet times in the FX market as summertime currency flows in the Northern Hemisphere usually contain price action within recent ranges.
Greece state budget execution q1 2011 - not looking goodMarkets Beyond
Q1 2011 Greece's execution budget demonstrates that austerity measures are taking their toll on tax receipts despite better collection due to reform undertaken over the past year.
Trifid Research has provided daily and weekly market report with great accuracy in all segments such as stock, commodity and currency. This is more reliable and beneficial to all traders.
Daily Forex News March 4th 2013 FCTOFX: The Australian Dollar suffered some selloff as the week started while markets are generally steady elsewhere. Australian building approvals dropped for the second straight month by 2.4% month on month in January, compared to consensus expectation of a 2.8% rise. AUD/USD dipped to a five month low ahead of tomorrow's Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3% tomorrow as governor Stevens noted in February that the current rate is working well and appropriate for the moment. Though he warned that the economy has entered 2013 at a pace a little below trend. Markets are still expecting a 25 base point cut to record low of 2.75% in Q2 but this will very much depends on incoming data in the next two months. Technically while AUD/USD was clearly in a near term down trend from 1.0597 the downside momentum hasn't convinced so far. Though it's expected selloff would accelerate a bit if the near term support of 1.0148 is taken out.
Daily Forex News March 12th 2013 FCTOFX: The Japanese Yen was under renewed pressure in the Asian session today and dropped to a new low against the dollar on Bank of Japan easing expectations. Bank of Japan deputy governor nominee Iwata said that the bank could achieve the 2% inflation target within two years by buying long-term bonds and urged that the central bank needs "decisive easing". He also played down the risk of boosting the buying of risk assets. Another deputy governor nominee Nakaso also said that the Bank of Japan could expand the size of the asset purchases. Yesterday, Bank of Japan governor nominee Kuroda signaled that the central bank would pursue aggressive easing quickly after he's confirmed. Meanwhile the Bank of Japan minutes for the February 13th to 14th meeting noted that some board members have considered an option of buying longer Japanese Government Bonds if further monetary easing is needed. Data released from Japan saw domestic CGPI drop 0.1% year on year in February, the Tertiary industry index dropped 1.1% month on month in January and the BSI large manufacturing index dropped to 4.6 in Q1.
The drivers of renewed euro and sterling weaknessHantec Markets
The US dollar is performing strongly once more, but is this underlying strength of the greenback or simply due to weakness elsewhere? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets this week.
EUROPEAN DIS-UNION AND THE GLOBAL SLOWDOWNWeTrade 4You
The treasury curve is flattening at a tremendous pace and markets look closer to hitting escape velocity. On the bright side, it’s a great time to get a 30-year mortgage that is if real estate prices are not chasing equities to the downside. With all the signs are pointing in the same direction, the Federal Reserve may have to reevaluate and reverse its decision to end quantitative easing with the financial economy sputtering and the real economy crumbling.
http://www.options-trading-education.com/24475/what-does-a-strong-dollar-mean/
What Does a Strong Dollar Mean?
The Fed is getting ready to raise interest rates and drive the U. S. dollar higher. One of many places where this is not good news is farm country. What does a strong dollar mean to farmers? It means less money from exports. Farm Futures says that a strong dollar hangs over the market.
Storms bypassed the Farm Progress Show site in Boone, Iowa, Monday, but left their mark in the futures trade, when wheat plunged to a new 10-year low, taking corn to new contract lows too. A strong dollar was partly to blame. The greenback is strengthening again this morning, leaving grain futures mixed following a Crop Progress report that showed corn and soybeans still in good shape.
Forty percent of world corn exports come from the USA. The USA is the world leader in soybean production at 34% and its leading exporter. The USA produces 8.5% of world wheat and has 15% of exports. The USA is the 4th ranking beef exporter at 11.56% of world market. All of these commodities are sensitive to the value of the US dollar in relation to other currencies. What a strong US dollar means to farmers is fewer exports and lower prices.
Oil and the US Dollar
When the dollar goes up the price of oil goes down, as valued in dollars. Reuters reports that oil falls on the strong dollar as well as a supply glut.
Weekly Currency Round-up - 16th March 2018 moneycorpbank1
At the end of last week, PM Theresa May gave a speech which acknowledged that trade with the EU will become more difficult, the ECJ will continue to have a say on certain matters and some freedom of movement will persist.
Daily Forex News February 18th 2013 FCTOFX: The Japanese Yen weakened broadly in the Asian session today as Japan escaped from direct criticism from the G20 on recent policies that drove the sharp currency depreciation. It's reported that Japan received no censure during the meeting and its policies were considered supporting the economy rather than intentional devaluation. The G20's statement just mentioned a pledge not to target the exchange rates for "competitive purposes. Outgoing Bank of Japan governor Shirakawa re-iterated that the Bank's measures "have been and will remain" targeted at achieving a "robust economy through stable prices," and the G20 statement is "absolutely in the same spirit as our monetary policy." It's believed that while Japan might refrain from talking about the currency, it would continue to pursue aggressive fiscal and monetary easing ahead, in particular after the new Bank of Japan governor comes on board.
The magnificent 7 and equity markets review 9Markets Beyond
Turmoil in the Arab world triggered a market correction that was overdue. We are still in a bull market and opportunities to re-enter will soon materialize.
All eyes on the Fed, but what sort of cut?Hantec Markets
It is an incredibly important week for markets with the big focus on the monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. A rate cut is guaranteed, but what will forward guidance bring? We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Greece negotiations and tier one US data key for traders this weekHantec Markets
Negotiations between Greece and its creditors (the IMF and the EU) continue, but as yet there is no deal. Greek claims
that a deal was close were swiftly rebuffed by the IMF, leaving Greece still without the final €7.2bn bailout tranche it
needs to pay €1.6bn of debt repayments owed to the IMF in June. However, it would appear a 5th June deadline (for a €300m repayment) is not actually a deadline at all. There is an IMF technicality that allows a lumping together of all
payments, to then be paid at the end of the month.
Is a trend about to emerge for the dollar this week?Hantec Markets
With a tumultuous start to 2019 there is a lot to be concerned about for traders. However, is a trend about to emerge for the dollar? We look at the outlook for forex, commodities and equities this week.
Greece state budget execution q1 2011 - not looking goodMarkets Beyond
Q1 2011 Greece's execution budget demonstrates that austerity measures are taking their toll on tax receipts despite better collection due to reform undertaken over the past year.
Trifid Research has provided daily and weekly market report with great accuracy in all segments such as stock, commodity and currency. This is more reliable and beneficial to all traders.
Daily Forex News March 4th 2013 FCTOFX: The Australian Dollar suffered some selloff as the week started while markets are generally steady elsewhere. Australian building approvals dropped for the second straight month by 2.4% month on month in January, compared to consensus expectation of a 2.8% rise. AUD/USD dipped to a five month low ahead of tomorrow's Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3% tomorrow as governor Stevens noted in February that the current rate is working well and appropriate for the moment. Though he warned that the economy has entered 2013 at a pace a little below trend. Markets are still expecting a 25 base point cut to record low of 2.75% in Q2 but this will very much depends on incoming data in the next two months. Technically while AUD/USD was clearly in a near term down trend from 1.0597 the downside momentum hasn't convinced so far. Though it's expected selloff would accelerate a bit if the near term support of 1.0148 is taken out.
Daily Forex News March 12th 2013 FCTOFX: The Japanese Yen was under renewed pressure in the Asian session today and dropped to a new low against the dollar on Bank of Japan easing expectations. Bank of Japan deputy governor nominee Iwata said that the bank could achieve the 2% inflation target within two years by buying long-term bonds and urged that the central bank needs "decisive easing". He also played down the risk of boosting the buying of risk assets. Another deputy governor nominee Nakaso also said that the Bank of Japan could expand the size of the asset purchases. Yesterday, Bank of Japan governor nominee Kuroda signaled that the central bank would pursue aggressive easing quickly after he's confirmed. Meanwhile the Bank of Japan minutes for the February 13th to 14th meeting noted that some board members have considered an option of buying longer Japanese Government Bonds if further monetary easing is needed. Data released from Japan saw domestic CGPI drop 0.1% year on year in February, the Tertiary industry index dropped 1.1% month on month in January and the BSI large manufacturing index dropped to 4.6 in Q1.
The drivers of renewed euro and sterling weaknessHantec Markets
The US dollar is performing strongly once more, but is this underlying strength of the greenback or simply due to weakness elsewhere? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets this week.
EUROPEAN DIS-UNION AND THE GLOBAL SLOWDOWNWeTrade 4You
The treasury curve is flattening at a tremendous pace and markets look closer to hitting escape velocity. On the bright side, it’s a great time to get a 30-year mortgage that is if real estate prices are not chasing equities to the downside. With all the signs are pointing in the same direction, the Federal Reserve may have to reevaluate and reverse its decision to end quantitative easing with the financial economy sputtering and the real economy crumbling.
http://www.options-trading-education.com/24475/what-does-a-strong-dollar-mean/
What Does a Strong Dollar Mean?
The Fed is getting ready to raise interest rates and drive the U. S. dollar higher. One of many places where this is not good news is farm country. What does a strong dollar mean to farmers? It means less money from exports. Farm Futures says that a strong dollar hangs over the market.
Storms bypassed the Farm Progress Show site in Boone, Iowa, Monday, but left their mark in the futures trade, when wheat plunged to a new 10-year low, taking corn to new contract lows too. A strong dollar was partly to blame. The greenback is strengthening again this morning, leaving grain futures mixed following a Crop Progress report that showed corn and soybeans still in good shape.
Forty percent of world corn exports come from the USA. The USA is the world leader in soybean production at 34% and its leading exporter. The USA produces 8.5% of world wheat and has 15% of exports. The USA is the 4th ranking beef exporter at 11.56% of world market. All of these commodities are sensitive to the value of the US dollar in relation to other currencies. What a strong US dollar means to farmers is fewer exports and lower prices.
Oil and the US Dollar
When the dollar goes up the price of oil goes down, as valued in dollars. Reuters reports that oil falls on the strong dollar as well as a supply glut.
Weekly Currency Round-up - 16th March 2018 moneycorpbank1
At the end of last week, PM Theresa May gave a speech which acknowledged that trade with the EU will become more difficult, the ECJ will continue to have a say on certain matters and some freedom of movement will persist.
Daily Forex News February 18th 2013 FCTOFX: The Japanese Yen weakened broadly in the Asian session today as Japan escaped from direct criticism from the G20 on recent policies that drove the sharp currency depreciation. It's reported that Japan received no censure during the meeting and its policies were considered supporting the economy rather than intentional devaluation. The G20's statement just mentioned a pledge not to target the exchange rates for "competitive purposes. Outgoing Bank of Japan governor Shirakawa re-iterated that the Bank's measures "have been and will remain" targeted at achieving a "robust economy through stable prices," and the G20 statement is "absolutely in the same spirit as our monetary policy." It's believed that while Japan might refrain from talking about the currency, it would continue to pursue aggressive fiscal and monetary easing ahead, in particular after the new Bank of Japan governor comes on board.
The magnificent 7 and equity markets review 9Markets Beyond
Turmoil in the Arab world triggered a market correction that was overdue. We are still in a bull market and opportunities to re-enter will soon materialize.
All eyes on the Fed, but what sort of cut?Hantec Markets
It is an incredibly important week for markets with the big focus on the monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. A rate cut is guaranteed, but what will forward guidance bring? We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Greece negotiations and tier one US data key for traders this weekHantec Markets
Negotiations between Greece and its creditors (the IMF and the EU) continue, but as yet there is no deal. Greek claims
that a deal was close were swiftly rebuffed by the IMF, leaving Greece still without the final €7.2bn bailout tranche it
needs to pay €1.6bn of debt repayments owed to the IMF in June. However, it would appear a 5th June deadline (for a €300m repayment) is not actually a deadline at all. There is an IMF technicality that allows a lumping together of all
payments, to then be paid at the end of the month.
Is a trend about to emerge for the dollar this week?Hantec Markets
With a tumultuous start to 2019 there is a lot to be concerned about for traders. However, is a trend about to emerge for the dollar? We look at the outlook for forex, commodities and equities this week.
US dollar bulls looking closely at trade talks this weekHantec Markets
The outcome of the US/China trade negotiations remain key for the near to medium term outlook on markets. The US dollar is a key mover on this. We look at how this is impacting on the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
ECB, US growth and the Fed chair will be keyRichard Perry
Markets are consolidating ahead of some major risk events throughout the next seven days. The ECB monetary policy is highly likely to be an historic event which could drive the outlook for the euro in the coming months. We also see US growth on the agenda, but we will also see what sort of vision Donald Trump has for the FOMC as he identifies the next Fed chair. We look at how the outlook for forex, equities and commodities are impacted.
The glass is half empty with focus on US growthHantec Markets
As the reasons to be fearful in financial markets seem to be growing. We consider the factors impacting on market outlook and what is driving forex, equities and commodities this week.
UK and Eurozone inflation focus in a quiet week for US dataRichard Perry
Central bankers are increasingly focusing on persuading everyone that inflation is set to turn higher, however the data continues to tell a different story, at least in the US. With a lack of tier one US data this week attention will turn to UK and Eurozone inflation data to drive sentiment. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Tax reform remains key with US CPI in focus this weekRichard Perry
The perception of progress in US tax reform remains a key driver of financial markets with CPI inflation in focus. Treasury yields are still a key factor in how the US dollar trades and for this tax reform plays a key role. We take a look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets this week
Trade negotiations and renewed dollar strength is key this weekHantec Markets
A deterioration in the relations between the US and China over trade, a renewed strengthening of the dollar and a shift in risk appetite. These are all factors shaping the moves across financial markets. Flash PMIs are eyed as a key data point. We look at the impact across forex, equities and commodities.
Bond markets remain in focus after recent curve inversionHantec Markets
Economic data for the US is key to how bond yields respond and how this impacts across major markets. The first week of the month is always jam packed with tier one data and this one could be key for the dollar. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Payrolls affecting markets with inflation in focus this weekRichard Perry
Traders continue to react to the mixed Non-farm Payrolls report on Friday that hampers building expectation for a fourth rate hike by the Fed this year. However attention will turn back to US inflation this week, with the core CPI data, whilst Trump's trade tariffs are still on investors' minds. We consider the outlook for forex, equity indices and commodities markets.
Dollar still gains despite geopolitics impacting markets once moreRichard Perry
We take a look at what is driving forex, equities and commodities markets this week. Moves on yield differentials and the US dollar are still key for market direction whilst geopolitical factors are once more impacting.
1. SYNERGY FX ALERT
BY TODD DEITERICH | 03.06.15
US NON-FARM PAYROLL PREVIEW.
This month's US Jobs report could be unique in the sense that it's not THE most important economic story
of the day.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly report certainly won't be ignored by financial markets.
However, the decision by the Syriza Government to skip Friday's loan payment to the IMF and the recent
wide swings in German Bunds yields will also have an impact across the financial spectrum.
The preliminary forecast for headline job growth is 222,000 with an unemployment rate of 5.4% and an
increase of hourly earnings by .2%. Considering the recent comments from voting FOMC members that
consumer spending is not running at the pace needed to hit their inflation targets, the hourly earnings
number will be just as important as the headline print.
Over the last few weeks the components which make up the NFP report have been mixed. The ADP private
sector jobs report printed 35,000 better than last month but the employment threads in the ISM and so
FED district reports have softened. As such, Synergy FX expects a headline number over 180,000 to be
USD supportive as long as the hourly earnings number is flat to higher.
Of note, the FED conducted two Reverse Repurchase (RRP) agreements this week for a total of $196 billion
at an overnight yield spread of 19 to 21 basis points. Considering the market frenzy surrounding when the
FED will officially lift FED FUNDS rates to 25 basis points, it appears that via the RRP the first normalization
hurdle has been largely cleared.
Synergy FX suggested selling the EUR/USD on Tuesday on a break of 1.1080, which was not hit. Since then,
the EUR/USD traded briefly up to 1.1380 (see chart). The catalyst for this move was a combination of a
sharp spike in German Bund yields to almost 1% and persistent rumours that the Greek debt crisis was
nearing an end.......both of those drivers have been reversed.
The German Bund yield settled the day at .82% and Greek government decided to miss Friday's €300
million IMF payment to bundle the total €1.7 payment for June in one transaction at the end of the month.
We consider this a game changer in the Greek negotiations since it's the first time the Syriza government
has overtly defied a troika mandate.
With this in mind, we suggest selling EUR/USD on a limit of 1.1285 or on a stop at 1.1180 with an initial
target of 1.0880 and a 1.1425 stop.
The USD/JPY has been consolidating above initial support at 123.70 and below the recent high of 125.10.
We still prefer buying the pair down to 123.70 and adding to long positions on a break of the 4 hour
parabolic indicator at 124.68. Only a close below 122.30 reverses the current uptrend.
The GBP/USD arrested its 7 session slid with a bounce back to the 30 day moving average at 1.5410.
Synergy FX suggests selling the GBP/USD up to 1.5340 for an initial target of 1.5170 and a 1.5475 stop.
We were stopped out of our short EUR/GBP traded with a stinging 300 pip loss. We'll stay on the sideline
2. on this cross until the GBP/USD reaches lower levels.
The AUD/USD was sold down sharply yesterday on much weaker retail sales data. The sell stop at .7750
was triggered and we suggest adding to short positions before next week's employment report. Short-
term traders can look to sell AUD/USD up to .7740 for an initial target of .7570 with a .7815 stop.
SYNERGY FX