SlideShare a Scribd company logo
사용자 데이터를 통한
패키지 이용 예측
2016.12.22
Giwook Lee
github.com/GWL22/DSS
Motivation
실제 기업이 가지고 있는
데이터를 가지고 문제를
해결할 수 있을까?
Expedia 데이터만을 통해서 추천
시스템 알고리즘 향상 방안 강구
주제 : Package 이용 예측
Challenge
Problem
호텔 클러스터 예측
Limitation
너무 낮은 정확도 (0.33)
1위도 0.60
Dataset
Characteristic
Package를 선택했을 경우
선호국가가 다르며
평균적으로
숙박일을 길게 가져감
package 를 주로 선택!
nights
X1 + X2 = Package Usage
규칙성 => 의사결정나무
HOW
이에 따라 특정 규칙에 적합한
DecisionTreeClassifier로 모델링
21개의 Column 중 5개만으로
Accuracy : 90%
BUSINESS INSIGHT
- 어떤 나라의 어떤 도시는 주로 패키지를 사용한다.
- 패키지 사용시 숙박일이 평균적으로 길다.
- 접속 시각과 체크인 날짜까지의 기간인 ‘준비기간’ 또한 무시할 수 없다.
<그림 1.> 숙박1일 때
Package 이용률(녹)
<그림 2.> 숙박3일 때
Package 이용률(녹)
감사합니다
2016.12.22
Giwook Lee
github.com/GWL22/DSS

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