Вклад Рабочей группы III “Смягчение изменения климата“ipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on mitigating climate change. It discusses that greenhouse gas emissions have grown faster in recent decades than previously. Limiting warming to 2°C presents substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges and requires moving away from a baseline scenario. Effective mitigation requires changes throughout the global economy with cooperation across international scales.
Thomas Stocker was the co-chair of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report published between 2008-2014. The report involved 2 coordinating lead authors, 15 lead authors, 4 review editors, and 1 working group vice chair. It acknowledged the substantial contributions from scientists in the Russian Federation. The synthesis report included 21 headline statements printed on 2 pages and summarized over 7579 printed pages of the 3 comprehensive reports and 2 special reports. The reports concluded that human influence on the climate system is clear, continued greenhouse gas emissions will cause further warming and risks to humans and ecosystems, and multiple pathways exist to limit warming to below 2°C.
Вклад Рабочей группы III “Смягчение изменения климата“ipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on mitigating climate change. It discusses that greenhouse gas emissions have grown faster in recent decades than previously. Limiting warming to 2°C presents substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges and requires moving away from a baseline scenario. Effective mitigation requires changes throughout the global economy with cooperation across international scales.
Thomas Stocker was the co-chair of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report published between 2008-2014. The report involved 2 coordinating lead authors, 15 lead authors, 4 review editors, and 1 working group vice chair. It acknowledged the substantial contributions from scientists in the Russian Federation. The synthesis report included 21 headline statements printed on 2 pages and summarized over 7579 printed pages of the 3 comprehensive reports and 2 special reports. The reports concluded that human influence on the climate system is clear, continued greenhouse gas emissions will cause further warming and risks to humans and ecosystems, and multiple pathways exist to limit warming to below 2°C.
В жизни человека большую роль играют осадки. Изучение осадков представляет большие возможности для познания устройства вселенной. Осадки тесно связаны с процессами происходящими в облаках и они являются основной погодной единицей.
Целью предлагаемой работы является исследование условий выпадения осадков и измерения их количества по Нижегородской области
Slide deck for the IPCC Briefing to Latvian Parliamentariansipcc-media
This document summarizes a briefing given by IPCC officials to members of the Latvian Parliament. It discusses the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, focusing on mitigation pathways and options available now to halve emissions by 2030 in key sectors. Specific mitigation opportunities highlighted include building retrofits, urban solutions, and the crucial role of the built environment in achieving carbon neutrality. Adaptation strategies are also addressed, with examples given of the European Climate Mission providing support to update risk assessments and develop adaptation plans in focus areas like Latvia.
Climate change mitigation and adaptation options have the potential for synergies and trade-offs with the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. Mitigation and adaptation measures could support certain SDGs related to health, food security, cities and communities, while also potentially conflicting with economic and social development goals depending on how they are designed and implemented. Policymakers should consider these interactions to maximize co-benefits and minimize negative impacts across mitigation, adaptation and development efforts.
Food, agriculture, land, and water: Insights from AR6 and knowledge gaps for AR7ipcc-media
Climate change is impacting the global water cycle and leading to effects across many economic sectors and societies. Most documented adaptations relate to water, and water is central to adaptation, though effectiveness decreases with increased warming. Many mitigation measures have significant water footprints that must be managed to reduce impacts on water and food security. Knowledge gaps remain around transition pathways for the agricultural sector that balance mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development.
Climate change is already impacting global food systems and future impacts are expected to be systemic, especially from increased heat. Climate change will raise risks of food insecurity, but climate adaptation of food systems can reduce these risks while also lowering greenhouse gas emissions. While climate adaptation in agriculture and food systems has received more attention, current adaptation efforts remain fragmented, small-scale, and focused more on planning than implementation.
Climate change, food, agriculture , land and A guide to findings in the IPCC’...ipcc-media
This document provides an overview of key findings from the IPCC's 6th assessment cycle regarding climate change impacts on food and water systems, risks of food systems and deforestation to climate change, climate change mitigation potentials, and synergies with sustainable development goals. It lists relevant figures from the IPCC reports and provides contact information for the IPCC Secretariat and Press Office.
Assessing the land sector potential in IPCC AR6 WGIIIipcc-media
The document discusses estimates of the land sector's potential to mitigate climate change from 2020-2050. It finds that the cost-effective potential (less than $100/ton of CO2) is estimated to be 8-14 gigatons of CO2 equivalent per year on average, which represents 24-42% of the sector's technical mitigation potential. Bottom-up sectoral models provide higher-resolution estimates at country and sub-national levels but have difficulty accounting for interactions between sectors, while integrated assessment models link all economic sectors but have coarser resolution and consider fewer land-based mitigation activities.
Overview of the IPCC Inventory Software for National Greenhouse Gas Inventori...ipcc-media
The document provides an overview of the latest version (2.89) of the IPCC Inventory Software for estimating national greenhouse gas inventories. Key points:
- Version 2.89 implements Tier 1-3 methods from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and elements of the 2019 Refinement to facilitate reporting to the UNFCCC.
- It allows estimation of emissions at subnational levels and includes functions for uncertainty analysis and interfacing with the UNFCCC reporting tool.
- The software guides users through the estimation process category-by-category and generates a JSON file that can be imported into the UNFCCC reporting tool.
The IPCC Emission Factor Database (EFDB) is an open library launched in 2002 that contains emission factors and other parameters used to estimate national greenhouse gas emissions. It is regularly updated with new peer-reviewed data and its usage and downloaded data have increased over time. In 2023, a new upgraded version was released with enhanced search functions and data statistics. An annual meeting is held for editorial board members and data providers to discuss proposals for new data to include and ways to improve the database. Over 2,400 new data points were recently accepted for inclusion after robustness, applicability, and documentation criteria were met.
IPCC TFI work on Methodology Report on Short-lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs)ipcc-media
The IPCC decided to develop a new Methodology Report on Short-Lived Climate Forcers during the AR7 cycle. Expert meetings were held to analyze existing methodologies, identify knowledge gaps, and develop category and species lists. A scoping meeting will take place in 2024 to determine the report outline, authors, and workplan. The report will be developed over several years and author meetings, with reviews by experts, governments, and the IPCC before final publication in 2027.
Adaptation-Mitigation Synergies and Trade-offsipcc-media
Dr. Debora Ley presented at COP28 in Dubai on the Sixth Assessment Report from Working Group II on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The presentation discussed adaptation and mitigation synergies and trade-offs, the feasibility of adaptation measures, and thanked the audience for their attention.
Adaptation-Mitigation Synergies and Tradeoffsipcc-media
This document discusses the synergies and tradeoffs between climate change adaptation and mitigation. It states that mitigation is critical to ensuring a wide range of effective adaptation options by limiting global warming increase. With increased warming, both human and natural systems will face greater losses and damages and exceed their limits of adaptation. The document also notes that response measures to climate change, like deployment of bioenergy crops, can impact food systems, ecosystems and water scarcity if used over large amounts of land. Dedicated bioenergy crops consistent with mitigation scenarios could require an area half the size of current global cropland.
Lessons learned and impacts of enhancing participation of young scientists in...ipcc-media
Sonia Seneviratne gave a presentation on involving youth and improving participation of young scientists in the IPCC process from a European perspective. She discussed how the climate crisis will impact future young generations the most. While young scientists made up 63% of first-time authors for the IPCC's AR6 report, most recurring authors were from Europe and North America. Barriers to participation for European youth included the extensive travel required for in-person meetings. Seneviratne concluded it is essential to better involve young people by having them serve as authors, observers, and stakeholders, and by reducing demands for travel through more virtual meetings while continuing support for less developed countries.
Opportunities for Early Career Scientists to Contribute to IPCC work & the IP...ipcc-media
This document outlines opportunities for early career scientists to contribute to and get involved with the IPCC assessment process, including the approved outline, nomination and selection of authors, expert reviews, and the IPCC Scholarship Programme. It notes key milestones in the AR7 assessment process such as scoping approval, internal/government reviews, and report approval. The IPCC Scholarship Programme provides opportunities for young scientists from developing countries to further their climate change studies and has awarded over 90 scholarships to date funded by various partners.
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Similar to Основные понятия (погода, климат, экстремальное явление, воздействие, адаптация, уязвимость, смягчение)
В жизни человека большую роль играют осадки. Изучение осадков представляет большие возможности для познания устройства вселенной. Осадки тесно связаны с процессами происходящими в облаках и они являются основной погодной единицей.
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Основные понятия (погода, климат, экстремальное явление, воздействие, адаптация, уязвимость, смягчение)
1.
2. На языке науки (… о климате)
В.М. Катцов
Семинар МГЭИК, 21 сентября 2015 г.
3. Цитата:
«Они дают прогнозы на сто лет с теми же моделями,
с которыми не могут предсказать погоду даже на несколько дней…»
4. Климатическая система – сложная система, состоящая из пяти
основных компонентов: атмосферы, гидросферы, криосферы,
литосферы и биосферы, и взаимодействий между ними.
Климатическая система эволюционирует во времени под воздействием
своей собственной внутренней динамики и в силу внешних
воздействий, таких как извержения вулканов, колебания солнечной
радиации и антропогенные воздействия, такие как изменение состава
атмосферы и изменения в землепользовании.
Климатическая система
5. Погода – состояние атмосферы (в широком смысле – любого
компонента климатической системы) в определенный момент времени
или в течение короткого промежутка времени – от минут до суток.
Теоретический предел предсказуемости погоды составляет, примерно,
две недели.
Климат в узком смысле этого слова обычно определяется как средний
режим погоды или в более строгом смысле как статистическое
описание средней величины и изменчивости соответствующих
количественных параметров в течение периода времениот нескольких
месяцев до тысяч или миллионов лет.
Согласно определению ВМО, классическим периодом для усреднения
этих переменных является период в 30 лет.
Погода и климат
6. Изменение климата означает изменение состояния климата, которое
может быть определено (например, с помощью статистических тестов)
через изменения в средних значениях и/или вариабельности его
параметров и которое сохраняется в течение длительного периода,
обычно десятилетий или больше. Изменение климата может быть
вызвано естественными внутренними процессами или внешними
воздействиями, такими как модуляции солнечных циклов, извержения
вулканов и продолжительные антропогенные изменения в составе
атмосферы или в землепользовании.
Изменения и изменчивость климата
Изменчивость климата – колебания среднего состояния и других
статистических параметров климата во всех пространственных и
временных масштабах.
7. Прогноз – описание будущего состояния – что будет?
Прогноз и перспективная оценка
Перспективная оценка – условный прогноз – что будет, если …?
8. Сценарий воздействия на климатическую систему –
правдоподобное описание будущего, основанное на согласованном
наборе предположений в отношении ключевых движущих факторов
развития человечества (например, темпы технологических изменений,
цены и т.п.).
Сценарии не являются прогнозами и им не приписывается вероятность
реализации.
Климатические воздействия
и воздействия на климат
Климатические воздействия – последствия изменений климата для
природных систем и хозяйственных объектов, экономики и
безопасности, общества и т.п.
9. Смягчение антропогенных воздействий на климатическую систему
действия, направленные сокращение источников или расширение
поглотителей парниковых газов.
Адаптация – приспособления к фактическим и ожидаемым, прямым
или косвенным климатическим воздействиям – во избежание ущерба и
использования новых возможностей.
Адаптация и смягчение
Уязвимость – предрасположенность к неблагоприятному воздействию,
недостаток способности противостоять или адаптироваться.
10. Экстремальное явление – явление, которое редко наблюдается в
конкретном месте и в конкретное время года. Явление обычно
считается экстремальным, если оно наблюдается не чаще, чем 10-й
или 90-й процентиль функции распределения вероятностей,
оцениваемой по данным наблюдений. Если режим экстремальной
погоды сохраняется некоторое время, например, в течение сезона,
то его можно квалифицировать как экстремальное климатическое
явление, (например, засуха или сильные дождевые осадки в
течение сезона).
Экстремальность
11. Экстремальное явление – явление, которое редко наблюдается в
конкретном месте и в конкретное время года. Явление обычно
считается экстремальным, если оно наблюдается не чаще, чем 10-й
или 90-й процентиль функции распределения вероятностей,
оцениваемой по данным наблюдений. Если режим экстремальной
погоды сохраняется некоторое время, например, в течение сезона,
то его можно квалифицировать как экстремальное климатическое
явление, (например, засуха или сильные дождевые осадки в
течение сезона).
Экстремальность
13. Климатические модели:
от законов физики до компьютерных кодов
дифференциальные уравнения
в частных производных
алгебраические уравнения
компьютерная программа
Законы физики
18. Что нас ожидает и что нам делать?
Неизбежность в ближайшие десятилетия: Уже неизбежно усугубление
наблюдаемых изменений климата.
Необходима адаптация.
В дальнейшей перспективе возможны варианты: Влияние различий
между сценариями эмиссий (т.е. в результате политических решений сегодня)
возрастает во второй половине 21-го века.
Необходимо смягчение антропогенной нагрузки на климат.
Исаак Ньютон 1642-1727
«Начала» Ньютона (1687)
Клод Луи Мари Анри Навье 1785—1836
Сэр Джордж Габриэль Стокс 1819-1903
Льюс Фрай Ричардсон 1881-1953
В Саровском ядерном центре в марте 2011 года запустили суперкомпьютер, самый супермощный для России. Его реальная производительность составляет 780 Тфлопс, что соответствует двенадцатому месту в рейтинге мощнейших суперкомпьютеров мира Топ-500 , а для России и стран СНГ это первое место в рейтинге Топ-50. Сборка этого суперкомпьютера осуществлялась специалистами ядерного центра. Основу его составляют как зарубежные разработки, так и собственные разработки РФЯЦ-ВНИИЭФ, которые включают основные компоненты системного ПО и ряд решений сделаны собственными силами РФМЦ-НИИЭФ.Разработкой собственных суперкомпьютеров Россия занимается с 2000 года. Суперкомпьютеры в мире применяют в таких отраслях, как космическая отрасль, авиастроение, машиностроение, судостроение, оборонная промышленность, химическая промышленность, нанотехнологии и других.Сейчас готовится проект о развитии индустрии подобных суперкомпьютеров и их применении в России. К сожалению, российские системы в данное время в мировом рейтинге не поднимаются выше двенадцатого места и Россия в этой области отстаёт где-то на три года от США и ведущих стран мира. А ведь мы были в недалёком прошлом лучшими в этой области. Развитие суперкомпьютерной отрасли зависит напрямую от объёма госинвестиций, а у нас они невелики по сравнению с мировыми супердержавами и в России нет целевого бюджета пока для развития этой отрасли.Президент России Д.А. Медведев особо выделяет отрасль развития суперкомпьютеров как стратегически нужную и важную.
Неизбежность в ближайшие десятилетия: Уже неизбежно усугубление наблюдаемых изменений климата.
Необходима адаптация.
В дальнейшей перспективе возможны варианты: Влияние различий между сценариями эмиссий (т.е. в результате политических решений сегодня) возрастает во второй половине 21-го века.
Необходимо смягчение антропогенной нагрузки на климат
