SPIDER (Spatial Penetration & Integration of Distributed Energy Resources)

DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES PLANNING

©2018-2019. LUMIDYNE CONSULTING LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Agenda
Timing
• 1 hour presentation is recommended
• ½ hour executive summary is an option
Introductions
Why?
• Forecast DERs
• Lumidyne
How?
• Solar PV
• Battery Storage
• Electric Vehicles
What?
• SPIDER Demonstration
Next Steps

Why forecast DERs?
Rapid growth surprises
planners
Poor forecasts affect
profits and reliability
High penetration affects
rate design
Many states require it:
- California: 2017
- Nevada: 2018
- Minnesota: 2018
- Colorado: 2019
- 2020 and beyond? https://sepapower.org/resource/2019-grid-integration-insights

Why Lumidyne?
We have more experience than any competitor (15 years)
We’ve successfully delivered services to over a dozen utilities,
the U.S. DOE, and NREL, among others
We use advanced methods developed at MIT with software
surpassing any on the market today
Stakeholders in California have reviewed our methods and
characterized them as “best practice”
No other firm can make any of these claims

TotalUnitsPurchased
UnitsperYear
Time
Incremental Adoption (Units/Year)
Cumulative Adoption (Total Units)
Inflection
Point
Bass diffusion and System Dynamics capture complex DER
market dynamics for any future scenario
Stock & Flow Diagram Typical Adoption Pattern
How? Adoption approach (e.g., for solar PV)

How? Calibration
Calibration
Source: Lumidyne
Automated calibration enables accurate DER forecasts
Spatial Impacts

How? Storage
Dispatch: optimized for
any rate structure
Adoption: Bass diffusion
Systems: Multiple
Storage only
Storage + solar
Value Stacking: Flexible
Ancillary services
Demand response
Etc.
Hourly Dispatch

How? Electric Vehicles
Multi-attribute customer
decision algorithm combined with
Bass diffusion and stock/flow model
Stock & Flow Diagram
Calibration
EVs/yearTotalEVs
Simulated
Actual
Non-Electric
Vehicle Stock
Electric Vehicle
(EV) Stock
EV
Retirements
Non-EV
Retirements
Non-EV
Additions
EV Additions
Total
Retirements
+
+
EV Market Share
(New Sales)
EV Economic
Utility
EV Non-Economic
Utility
+ +
+
+
+
+
Fraction Familiar
with EVs
Fraction
Unfamiliar with
EVs Familiarization
Advertising
Strength
Familiarization
through Advertising
Viral Strength Familiarization
through Viral Effects
+
+
+
EV Market
Fraction
+
+
<Non-Electric
Vehicle
Stock>
-
-
+
+
Electricity
Rate for
Charging
($/kWh)
-
Tax Credits &
Incentives
+
+
<Fraction Familiar
with EVs>

What? SPIDER – a DER Planning Tool

What? Demonstration

Next Steps

Contacts
Cory Welch - Founder & President
lumidyneconsulting.com
cory.welch@lumidyneconsulting.com
720.984.5814
James Milford - Director of Technology
lumidyneconsulting.com
james.milford@lumidyneconsulting.com
303.548.8847

Appendix

Lumidyne Leadership
Cory Welch
Founder & President
James Milford
Director of Technology
We have been developing advanced clean-energy
planning models for electric & gas utilities throughout
North America for over 15 years.
Led by former Director of the Energy Modeling Group
and DER Modeling Lead at Navigant
Active contributors to CA’s Distribution Forecasting
Working Group

Lumidyne Services
SIMULATING DISTRIBUTED ENERGY
RESOURCE ADOPTION
The Distributed Energy Resource (DER) market
is evolving quickly, and the pace of change is
accelerating. We help you understand where
it’s headed – over time and spatially. We can
accurately assess the economics of and
forecast market adoption of distributed
energy resources, including rooftop solar
photovoltaics, battery storage, electric
vehicles, and energy efficiency resources. We
offer industry-leading approaches and
unparalleled accuracy in our forecasts, taking
the guesswork out of understanding the
future of these markets.
SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING FOR
POLICY ANALYSIS
We live in a complex world – one that is ill-
suited to overly simplistic solutions. We have
15 years of experience applying the System
Dynamics methodology – an approach
conceived and cultivated in the halls of MIT –
to simulate the behavior of complex systems.
The models our staff have developed have
been used in dozens of client engagements
with some of the largest electric utilities,
regulatory agencies, and conservation
organizations in North America. Incorporation
of relevant feedback loops, stocks and flows in
our models is enhanced by our ability to
integrate these models with linear or
nonlinear optimization and Monte Carlo
analysis – making our approach second to
none.
CUSTOM MODELING TOOLS –
TAILOR-MADE FOR YOU
Most business decision tools are woefully
inadequate for the challenges you face. With
the Analytica® software platform, we can take
you light-years beyond what you could ever
accomplish with spreadsheets or rigid, off-the-
shelf solutions – improving capability,
flexibility and transparency. We can provide
you with customized decision support and
modeling tools that will give you more
capability than you ever thought possible,
improving your ability to make smart decisions
and investments.
SERVICES

Our staff have worked with
dozens of North American
utilities and agencies to
deliver modeling services
across a wide spectrum of
energy issues.
Capacity Expansion Production Cost Modeling Potential Studies
Generation, transmission, and
DSM resource acquisition
integrated with Monte Carlo
uncertainty and linear and
nonlinear optimization.
Renewable energy penetration
studies in Western US, benefits
of thermal storage from
concentrating solar power, and
impacts of emissions
regulations on Eastern US coal
plants.
Estimation of technical,
economic and achievable
savings potential from energy
efficiency, demand response,
codes & standards, and
electrification programs.
DER Adoption Forecasting Battery Storage Analysis Cost Effectiveness Stakeholder Engagement
Modeling customer behavior
and technology diffusion
dynamics to forecast adoption
of solar PV, battery storage,
electric vehicles, EE, and DR
over time and spatially.
Optimized charging/discharging
of stand-alone battery, battery
plus solar, and thermal storage
to maximize economic benefit
& calculate energy & demand
impacts.
Benefit-cost analysis using
industry standard and utility-
specific protocols across a wide
range of applications: EE, DR,
solar PV, thermal and electric
storage, grid modernization,
EVs.
Facilitated stakeholder
engagement activities involving
utilities, commissions,
customer and industry groups,
research and environmental
organizations, advisory
committees, & expert
testimony.
Clients for which staff have delivered relevant modeling services: APS, Arkansas Utilities, BC Utilities, BPA, CEC, CPUC, DOE, EPA, Enbridge,
Entergy NO, Exelon, HECO, IESO Ontario, KCP&L, LADWP, NV Energy, PECO, PG&E, PSEG, SDGE, UniSource, US Auto Alliance, Xcel CO, etc.
Lumidyne Expertise

Illustrative Case Studies
1. DER Forecasting for Distribution Planning
2. EV Forecasting for City Planning
3. Custom Integrated Resource Planning Model

CA PUC requires all IOUs to integrate DERs into their
distribution system planning processes
Numerous stakeholders involved in reviewing
methodology through a working group
Client (not unlike many IOUs) was ill-equipped to
understand the likely impact of DERs on the grid
System Dynamics model of
solar PV & EV adoption
Calibrated to historical data
Mixed-integer program for
battery storage dispatch impact
Distribution forecasting
working group participation
Approved by stakeholders
10-year forecast of impacts
Online client-accessible model
CHALLENGE
APPROACH
RESULTS
For Illustration
Only – Not Real
Data

2. EV Forecasting for City Planning
California Energy Commission grant
opportunity
Electric vehicle blueprint desired for
disadvantaged communities
Lumidyne’s EV forecasting assistance
requested
Vehicle stock turnover & technology
diffusion model
Multi-attribute vehicle market share
model
Calibrated by ZIP Code to historical
vehicle registrations from CA DMV
Output informed an EV blueprint &
development of charging infrastructure
requirements
CHALLENGE
APPROACH
RESULTS

3. Custom IRP Model Development
Lumidyne staff (while at Navigant)
completely redeveloped the entire IRP
model in Analytica (online accessible)
Fully integrates supply side & demand
side resources
Stochastic, dynamic, nonlinear
optimization model
Used to create the Pacific NW’s 7th
Power Plan. Unprecedented stakeholder
buy-in.
Contracted with Lumidyne for
ongoing development (e.g., adding
dynamic capacity calc. for renewables)
CHALLENGE
APPROACH
RESULTS
NPCC sought complete
redevelopment of its integrated resource
planning model to facilitate supply &
demand-side resource planning in the
Pacific Northwest (OR, WA, MT, ID)

Risk & Uncertainty
Monte Carlo simulation
enables estimating uncertainty &
risk of the DER portfolio
(including potential correlations)
An appropriate metric of the
distribution of net impact can be
selected (e.g., 90th or 10th %ile),
depending on the desired balance
between risk and cost.
Value at risk (e.g., CVaR90) for
the utility is another financial
metric
Illustrative Distributions of DERs & Net Impact
Spatial Distribution of DERs Can be Very Different
For Illustration Only.
Not Actual AZ Data

SPIDER (Spatial Penetration & Integration of Distributed Energy Resources)

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