The document provides a technical analysis of the USD/NOK currency pair. It summarizes: 1) USD/NOK has broken above resistance levels in recent months, driven by US dollar safe haven demand and oil price weakness. 2) The analysis sees scope for USD/NOK to extend higher to target levels of 6.2370 and then 6.7281, as global growth moderates and oil prices remain weak. 3) The analysis recommends long positions near current levels, with stops below 5.5447, viewing the current period as a higher low formation en route to retesting highs.

1. SPECIAL FOCUS
USD/NOK – Scope for a further extension higher from the current region.
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By Bijoy Kar, CFA

2. SPECIAL FOCUS
USD/NOK
EUR/USD
7 October, 2011
USD/NOK – Medium-term structure warns of an extension higher.
USD/NOK based at 5.2174 at the beginning of May after a minor break
below the support of a falling channel. This was followed by a substantial
recovery which broke above the resistance of the same channel confirming
the break down to 5.2174 as a false break lower.
A period of consolidation then followed in a tight 5.3144-5.6318 band
which resulted in a deep retrace of the initial recovery. September then
saw a substantial swing higher amid US Dollar safe haven buying and the
associated weakness in oil saw a sustained break over the 200 day moving
average.
After peaking at 5.9738 a period of consolidation/retrace appears to be
developing. Assuming global growth continues to moderate and the price
of oil remains weak, we see scope for an eventual continuation of US Dollar
strength to target 6.2370 and then 6.7281. Thus, while above 5.6318 and
the 200 day moving average (currently at 5.5616), scope is seen for the
creation of a higher low for an initial re-test of 5.9738.
The ideal location for long positioning lies near the key low at 5.6926,
where a higher low would be favoured to form. The clear risks to this
USD/NOK daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP strategy are a stabilisation in the Eurozone credit crisis, which would likely
lead to a weakening of the US Dollar and an associated strengthening of
oil prices. In the mean time long positioning is favoured with stops
suggested under 5.5447 and scope for an eventual return to
6.2370/6.7281.
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Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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3. LEGAL SPECIAL FOCUS
TERMS 7 October, 2011
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All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim. (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
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4. SPECIAL FOCUS
CONTACT 7 October, 2011
Bjioy Kar
www.migbank.com
MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or
Technical Strategist info@migbank.com CH-2008 Neuchâtel
b.kar@migbank.com www.migbank.com Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 4