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ICON (Ivermectin in COvid Nineteen) study: Use of Ivermectin is Associated with Lower
Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID19
Juliana Cepelowicz Rajter, M.D.
1
Michael S. Sherman, M.D.
2
Naaz Fatteh, M.D.
1
Fabio Vogel, Pharm. D. , BCPS
1
Jamie Sacks, Pharm. D.
1
Jean-Jacques Rajter, M.D.
1,3
1. Broward Health Medical Center, Fort Lauderdale, FL
2. Emeritus Professor, Drexel University College of Medicine
3. Assistant Professor, Florida International University
Corresponding author: Jean-Jacques Rajter, MD
covid19@pscflorida.com
Manuscript Word count: 2081
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Abstract
Importance:
No therapy to date has been shown to improve survival for patients infected with SARS-
CoV-2. Ivermectin has been shown to inhibit the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro but
clinical response has not been previously evaluated.
Objective:
To determine whether Ivermectin is associated with lower mortality rate in patients
hospitalized with COVID-19.
Design and Setting:
Retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients hospitalized at four Broward Health
hospitals in South Florida with confirmed SARS-CoV-2. Enrollment dates were March 15,
2020 through May 11, 2020. Follow up data for all outcomes was May 19, 2020.
Participants:
280 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (mean age 59.6 years [standard
deviation 17.9], 45.4% female), of whom 173 were treated with ivermectin and 107
were usual care were reviewed. 27 identified patients were not reviewed due to
multiple admissions, lack of confirmed COVID results during hospitalization, age less
than 18, pregnancy, or incarceration.
Exposure:
Patients were categorized into two treatment groups based on whether they received at
least one dose of ivermectin at any time during the hospitalization. Treatment decisions
were at the discretion of the treating physicians. Severe pulmonary involvement at
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study entry was characterized as need for either FiO2 ≥50%, or noninvasive or invasive
mechanical ventilation.
Main Outcomes and Measures:
The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included
subgroup mortality in patients with severe pulmonary involvement and extubation rates
for patients requiring invasive ventilation.
Results:
Univariate analysis showed lower mortality in the ivermectin group (15.0 % versus
25.2%, OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.96, P=.03). Mortality was also lower among 75 patients
with severe pulmonary disease treated with ivermectin (38.8% vs 80.7%, OR 0.15, CI
0.05-0.47, P=.001), but there was no significant difference in successful extubation rates
(36.1% vs 15.4%, OR 3.11 (0.88-11.00), p=.07). After adjustment for between-group
differences and mortality risks, the mortality difference remained significant for the
entire cohort (OR 0.27, CI 0.09-0.85, p=.03; HR 0.37, CI 0.19-0.71, p=.03).
Conclusions and Relevance:
Ivermectin was associated with lower mortality during treatment of COVID-19,
especially in patients who required higher inspired oxygen or ventilatory support. These
findings should be further evaluated with randomized controlled trials.
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Introduction
As of May 24th, 2020, the CDC recorded nearly 100,000 people having died of Covid-19
with at least 1,639,099 confirmed infections having been reported in the US and its
territories. Covid-19 presents an unprecedented challenge to identify effective therapy
for prevention and treatment. Currently, there is no evidence from randomized
controlled trials of any potential therapy improving survival outcomes in patients with
confirmed disease.
In the late 1970s Ivermectin was developed as a new class of drug to treat parasitic
infections. Initially used in veterinary Medicine, it was soon found to be safe and
effective in humans. It has successfully been used to treat onchocerciasis and lymphatic
filariasis in millions of people worldwide as part of a global drug donation program.
About 3.7 billion doses of Ivermectin have been distributed in mass drug administration
campaigns globally over the past 30 years. Presently, Ivermectin is approved for use in
humans in several countries to treat onchocerciasis, lymphatic filariasis, strongyloidiasis
and scabies.
1
Ivermectin has previously been studied as a therapeutic option for viral infections with
in vitro data showing some activity against a broad range of viruses, including HIV,
Dengue, Influenza and Zika virus.
2,3
In a recent study, Wagstaff et al, demonstrated that
Ivermectin was a potent in-vitro inhibitor of SARS-CoV-2, showing a 99.8% reduction in
viral RNA after 48 hours.
4
However, in-vivo efficacy of ivermectin in SARS-CoV-2
infection in humans has not previously been reported.
Methods:
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Patients
Sequentially consecutive hospitalized patients at four Broward Health associated
hospitals in South Florida with laboratory-confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 during
their admission were reviewed in this study. The list of confirmed cases was provided by
the epidemiology department. Enrollment dates ranged from March 15, 2020 through
May 11, 2020. Confirmatory testing was performed by nasopharyngeal swab using an
FDA Emergency Use Authorized COVID-19 molecular assay for the detection of SARS-
CoV-2 RNA. Patients younger than 18 years old, pregnant, or incarcerated were
excluded from the data collection based on IRB requirements. Patients who had at least
2 separate admissions placing them in both groups were also excluded.
Trial procedures
Records were abstracted by four of the authors and all data was subsequently reviewed
and confirmed by the lead author. Baseline data was collected at the time of ivermectin
administration for the ivermectin group; for the usual care group baseline was either at
the time of administration of hydroxychloroquine or, if not used, at the time of
admission. Information collected included COVID-19 testing results, patient
demographics, pre-existing comorbid conditions, initial vital signs, chest imaging studies,
laboratory results, and the use of hydroxychloroquine with and without azithromycin in
order to describe the cohort and to identify potential cofounders between groups.
Severity of pulmonary involvement was assessed at the time of initiation of therapy
(“onset”) and categorized as severe or non-severe. Patients were considered to have
severe pulmonary involvement if they required an FiO2 of 50% or greater, high-flow
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nasal oxygen, noninvasive ventilation, or intubation and mechanical ventilation. The
non-severe pulmonary criteria encompassed patients who required no supplemental
oxygen, or “low FIO2” (ie: Venturi mask 40% or less, or any amount of low flow nasal
cannula), independent of radiographic or laboratory findings.
Patients were categorized into two treatment groups based on whether they received
ivermectin at any time during the hospitalization. Patients in the Ivermectin group
received at least one oral dose of ivermectin at 200 micrograms/kilogram in addition to
usual clinical care. The decision to prescribe ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine,
azithromycin or other medications was at the discretion of the treating physicians,
however hospital guidelines were established for the use of these agents as well as for
cardiac and QT monitoring for patients receiving hydroxychloroquine. Oxygen and
ventilatory support were applied per the customary care.
Outcomes
The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Patient was considered a
“survivor” if they left the hospital alive, or if their status in the hospital changed from
active care to awaiting transfer to a skilled facility. The latter outcome was necessitated
by the requirement that two consecutive negative nasopharyngeal swab specimens for
SARS-CoV-2, collected equal to or greater than 24 hours apart, were necessary for a
patient to be accepted to a skilled nursing facility.
Secondary outcomes included subgroup mortality of patients with severe pulmonary
involvement, extubation rates for patients requiring mechanical ventilation, and length
of hospital stay.
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Statistical analysis
Univariate analysis of the primary mortality outcome, and comparisons between
treatment groups were determined by Student’s t test or Mann-Whitney U test for
continuous variables as appropriate, and by Pearson Chi Square test for categorical
variables. The method of Hodges-Lehman was used to estimate median differences
with 95% confidence intervals.
To adjust for confounders and between-group differences, a multivariate analysis was
performed using stepwise binary logistic regression. Patient variables included in the
analysis were age, sex, comorbidities of diabetes, chronic lung disease, cardiovascular
disease, and hypertension, smoking status, severity of pulmonary involvement, BMI,
peripheral white blood count, absolute lymphocyte count, and use of
hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin based on bivariate associations within our data, a
priori plausibility, and documented associations with mortality from previous studies.
Adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals were computed to show level of
certainty. Hazard ratios for the primary outcome of mortality with 95% confidence
intervals were calculated by means of the Cox regression with the same covariates.
Analyses were based on nonmissing data and missing data were not imputed.
Missingness of 1% was found for peripheral white blood cell count, 5% for smoking
status, and 7% for absolute lymphocyte count. Secondary analyses were thus also
performed on the entire cohort. All tests were 2-sided and a p value <.05 was
considered statistically significant. All statistical analyses were conducted using IBM
SPSS v 24.0 software.
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Oversight
The protocol was approved by the institutional review board for the Broward Health
hospital system. The authors assume responsibility for the accuracy and completeness
of the data and analyses, as well as for the fidelity of the trial.
Results
Characteristics of the patients
307 patients were admitted for COVID-19 during the time period studied. 4 patients
were not reviewed due to multiple admissions, 11 had no confirmed COVID testing at
the time of the study, and 12 were excluded due to age younger than 18 years old,
pregnancy, or incarceration. The remaining cohort of 280 patients was comprised of
173 treated with ivermectin and 107 in the usual care group. Follow up data for all
outcomes were available through May 19th, 2020. No patients were lost to follow-up
for the primary outcome. At the time of analysis, all patients in the cohort had met the
endpoint of death, discharge alive, or awaiting transfer to a skilled facility.
Baseline characteristics and between group comparisons are shown in Table 1.
Characteristics were similar between groups, however hypertension was more prevalent
in the Ivermectin group, whereas the use of hydroxychloroquine and
hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin were higher in the usual care group. No other
significant between-group differences were found among baseline characteristics or
comorbidities, including age, race, cardiac comorbidities, or smoking status.
Outcomes
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Unadjusted outcomes for both groups are shown in Table 2. Overall mortality was
significantly lower in the ivermectin group than in the usual care group (15.0% vs 25.2%,
for ivermectin and usual care respectively, p=.03). Mortality was also lower for
ivermectin treated patients in the subgroup of patients with severe disease (38.8% vs.
80.7%, p=.001). Differences in extubation rates between groups were not significant
and there was also no difference in length of hospital stay.
Univariate analysis found that patients dying with COVID-19 infection were older, had
higher white blood cell counts and lower absolute lymphocyte counts (Table 3a) than
survivors. Patients who died were also more likely to have been current or former
smokers and have comorbid cardiac conditions, and were more likely to have severe
pulmonary involvement and hypotension at study entry (Table 3b). In comparison to
Caucasians, Blacks and Hispanics had lower odds of mortality in this cohort.
In the multivariate analysis, adjusting for demographic factors, between-group
differences in mortality risks, and concomitant use of hydroxychloroquine (with or
without azithromycin), independent predictors of in-hospital mortality included
treatment group, age, severe pulmonary disease category, and reduced lymphocyte
count (Table 4). Similarly, the Cox regression showed ivermectin was associated with a
significantly lower hazard ratio for mortality of 0.37 (CI 0.19 - 0.70, p=.003). Complete
case analysis on the entire cohort without missing data was similar (HR 0.40, 0.22- 0.74),
p=.003).
Discussion
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In this multihospital retrospective cohort study, we observed a significant association
with ivermectin on survival for patients admitted with Covid-19. This association was
also seen in the subset of patients with severe pulmonary disease.
Similar to other studies, we noted that older age, cardiac disease, current or former
smoking, more severe pulmonary involvement at presentation, higher white blood cell
counts, and lower lymphocyte counts emerged as risk markers for in-hospital mortality.
The overall mortality, and mortality in intubated patients, in our usual care group was
similar to what was reported in previous studies. Richardson et al reported an overall
mortality of 21% in their New York City cohort, with a mortality of 88% in intubated
patients.
5
Fei Zhou et al reported a 28.2% mortality in their cohort of hospitalized
patients in Wuhan, China; their intubated patients had a mortality of 96.9%.
6
In contrast
to Mehra et al, we did not see a mortality effect for hydroxychloroquine, with or
without the addition of azithromycin.
7
This may have been due to the small number of
patients who were not treated with these agents; our study was underpowered to
detect a difference. We also hypothesize that precautionary measures in the hospitals’
protocol for hydroxychloroquine use could have prevented them from developing fatal
arrhythmias. These included baseline EKG and daily QT monitoring by telemetry for any
patient receiving hydroxychloroquine or combination therapy, avoidance of
azithromycin if patient’s baseline QTc was greater than 460msec, and discontinuation of
hydroxychloroquine if there was a concerning elevation in QTc or if the patient’s
cardiologist recommended discontinuation.
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We did not confirm an increase risk of mortality in Blacks. This was likely due to
difference in age; white patients were significantly older (66.8 vs 59.1 years; mean
difference 7.7 years, CI 3.0 - 12.4, p=.001).
In the Ivermectin group, thirteen patients received a second dose of Ivermectin (200
mcg/kg) on day 7, since they were still hospitalized. Due to the low numbers, we did not
perform any further analysis of the redosing. We also did not observe any significant
side-effect from Ivermectin use.
We did not observe a significant difference in hospital length of stay between the
groups (median 7 days for both groups). Possible explanation could include delay in
discharging patients to other facilities (skilled nursing facilities, inpatient rehabs, etc)
due to lag in obtaining required repeat COVID testing results.
Need for mechanical ventilation was not adopted as outcome of interest, as national
guidelines and practice patterns for intubation criteria changed throughout the length
of the study.
We did not find a lower mortality in the non-severe patients treated with ivermectin;
however, our study was not powered to assess these differences as the overall mortality
in non-severe patients was low. Similarly, the study was not powered to determine
whether extubation rates were higher in the Ivermectin group. These should be
investigated further with a larger randomized controlled trial.
Our study has several limitations. Due to the retrospective observational nature of the
study, despite adjustment for known cofounders, we cannot exclude the possibility of
unmeasured confounding factors. Although more of the control group was enrolled
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earlier in the study, suggesting the possibility of timing bias, this may be offset by
preferential treatment of more severe patients with ivermectin early in the study due to
low initial availability. We also did not find consistently better mortality outcomes with
time over the short duration of this study. Most of our patients studied received
hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin and we are unable to determine
whether these medications had an added benefit, or whether mortality would have
been better in both groups without these agents.
We have shown that ivermectin administration was significantly associated with lower
mortality among patients with COVID-19, particularly in patients with more severe
disease. Interpretation of these findings are tempered by the limitations of the
retrospective design and the possibility of confounding. Appropriate dosing for this
indication is not known; nor are the effects of ivermectin on viral load, or in patients
with milder disease. Further studies in appropriately designed randomized trials are
recommended before any conclusions can be made.
Acknowledgements
Dr. Edward Gracely, Ph.D. for his support with the statistical analysis.
Conflicts of interest- including relevant financial interests, activities, relationships/affiliations
Juliana Cepelowicz Rajter, M.D.: none
Michael S. Sherman, M.D.: none
Naaz Fatteh, M.D.: none
Fabio Vogel, Pharm. D. , BCPS.: none
Jaime Sacks, Pharm. D.: none
Jean-Jacques Rajter, M.D.: none
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References:
1. Navarro M, Camprubí D, Requena-Méndez A, et al. Safety of high-dose ivermectin: a
systematic review and meta-analysis. J Antimicrobial Chemother. 2020; 75: 827–834.
2. Boldescu V, Behnam MAM, Vasilakis N, Klein CD. Broad-spectrum agents for flaviviral
infections: dengue, Zika and beyond. Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2017; 16:565-586.
3. Wagstaff KM, Sivakumaran H, Heaton SM, Harrich D, Jans DA. Ivermectin Is a Specific
Inhibitor of Importin α/β-Mediated Nuclear Import Able to Inhibit Replication of HIV-1
and Dengue Virus. Biochem J. 2012; 443:851-856.
4. Caly L, Druce JD, Catton MG, Jans DA, Wagstaff KM. The FDA-approved drug
ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro. Antiviral Research 2020
178:104787. Doi: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2020.104787 (Epub ahead of print).
5. Safiya Richardson, Jamie S. Hirsch, Mangala Narasimha, et al. Presenting
Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With
COVID-19 in the New York City Area. JAMA. Published online April 22, 2020.
doi:10.1001/jama.2020.6775.
6. Fei Zhou, Ting Yu, Ronghui Du , et al. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of
adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. The
Lancet, Volume 395, Issue 10229, 28 March–3 April 2020, Pages 1054-1062.
7. Mehra MR, Desai SS, Ruschitzka F, Patel AN. Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with
or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis.
Lancet 2020: DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6 (Epub ahead of print)
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Table 1: Patient Characteristics by Treatment Group
Demographic
characteristics
Total (n=280) Usual Care
(n=107)
Ivermectin (n=173) P value
Age, yearsa
59.6 (17.9) 58.6 (18.5) 60.2 (17.6) .45
Female sex 127 (45.4) 43 (41.2) 84 (48.6) .17
Race ethnicity .36
Black 153 (54.6) 55 (51.4) 98 (56.6)
White 76 (27.1) 35 (32.7) 41 (23.7)
Hispanic 33 (11.7) 12 (11.2) 21 (12.1)
Other or not
identifiedc
13 (4.6) 5 (4.7) 13 (7.5)
Smoking .40
Current 16/255 (6.3) 7/99 (7.1) 9/156 (5.7)
Former 30/255 (11.7) 15/99 (15.2) 15/151 (9.9)
Never 209/255 (81.9) 77/99 (77.8) 132/151 (87.4)
Number of
comorbiditiesa
1.66 (1.34) 1.60 (1.46) 1.70 (1.27) .57
Diabetes 90 (32.1) 31 (29.0) 59 (34.1) .37
Cardiac 43 (15.4) 18 (16.8) 25 (14.5) .59
Pulmonary 28 (10.0) 14 (13.1) 14 (8.9) .18
Obesity 114 (40.7) 42 (39.3) 72 (41.6) .70
Renal 24 (8.6) 10 (9.4) 14 (8.1) .72
Cancer 17 (6.1) 8 (7.5) 9 (5.2) .44
Hypertension 50 (17.9) 13 (12.2) 37 (21.4) .05
Neurologic 28 (10.0) 8 (7.5) 20 (11.6) .27
HIV 9 (3.2) 1 (1) 8 (4.6) .09
Thyroid 23 (8.2) 7 (6.6) 16 (9.3) .42
BMIa
30.0 (7.8) 29.8 (7.2) 30.1 (8.2) .81
Severity .46
Severe 75 (26.8) 26 (24.3) 49 (28.3) .12
Non-severe 205 (73.2) 81 (75.7) 124 (71.7) .55
HRb
86.0 (75.0, 97.0) 87.0 (73.5, 95.5) 85.5 (75.3, 98.0) .65
MAP (mm Hg)b
93 (82.2, 103.0) 91 (81.5, 104) 94 (83, 103) .66
MAP < 70 mm Hg 13/260 (5.0%) 6/89 (6.7%) 7/171 (4.1%) .35
Hydroxychloroquine 260 (92.9%) 104 (97.2) 156 (90.2) .03
Hydroxychloroquine
plus azithromycin
241 (86.1%) 98 (91.6) 143 (82.7) .04
Peripheral white
cell count (X 109
/L)b
7.3 (5.6, 10.2)
(n=277)
7.0 (5.7, 8.9)
(n=106)
7.6 (5.5, 11.1)
(n=171)
.41
Lymphocyte count
(X 109
/L)b
1.15 (0.78, 1.56)
(n=260)
1.14 (.84, 1.49)
(n=102)
1.20 (.77, 1.67)
(n=158)
.62
a
mean (+ SD)
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b
median (interquartile range)
c
Asian, Native American, Pacific Islander, or not identified
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Table 2: Univariate Clinical Outcomes by Treatment Group
Abbreviations: IQR – interquartile range.
Number/total number (%)
Total (n=280) Control (n=107) Ivermectin (n=173) OR (CI) P value
Mortality
Total 53 (18.9) 27 (25.2) 26 (15.0) 0.52 (0.29 to
0.96)
.03
Severe 40/75 (53.3) 21/26 (80.7) 19/49 (38.8) 0.15 (0.05 to
0.47)
.001
Non-severe 13/205 (6.3) 6/81 (7.4) 7/124 (5.6) 0.75 (0.24 to 2.3) .61
Successful
extubation
17/62 (27.4) 4/26 (15.4) 13/36 (36.1) 3.11 (0.88 to
11.00)
.07
Length of stay
(median, IQR)
7.0 (4.0, 12.5) 7.0 (4.0, 10.0) 7.0 (4.0, 13.3) .34
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Table 3a: Univariate analysis of factors associated with mortality (continuous variables)
Nonsurvivors Survivors Difference (CI) P
value
Age, yearsa
70.7 (15.1) 57.0 (17.6) 13.6 (8.5 to 18.8) <.001
Number of
comorbiditiesa
1.81 (1.49) 1.63 (1.31) 0.18 (-0.22 to 0.59) .37
BMIa
28.3 (6.7) 30.3 (8.0) -2.0 (-4.4 to -0.33) .09
Peripheral white
cell count (X 109
/L)b
9.8 (6.1, 13.2) 7.2 (5.5, 9.25) 2.1 (0.8 to 3.6) .001
Lymphocyte count
(X 109
/L)b
0.77 (0.47, 1.15) 1.29 (0.90,
1.68)
-0.46 (-0.63 to -
0.30)
<.001
a
mean (+ SD)
b
median (interquartile range)
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Table 3b: Univariate analysis of factors associated with mortality (categorical variables)
Mortality
Number/total
(percent)
OR (CI) P value
Sex
Female 24/127 (18.8) 1.00 (0.55 to 1.83) .99
Male 29/153 (19.0) Reference
Smoking
Current or former 18/46 (39.1) 2.75 (0.14 to 0.55) <.001
Nonsmoker 28/209 (13.9) Reference
Race .04
White 22/76 (28.9) Reference
Black 26/153 (17.0) 0.50 (0.26 to 0.96) .04
Hispanic 3/33 (9.1) 0.24 (0.07 to 0.89) .02
Othera
2/18 (11.1) 0.31 (0.07 to 1.45) .12
Comorbidities
Diabetes 19/90 (21.1) 1.23 (0.66 to 2.30) .52
Cardiac 15/43 (34.9) 2.81 (1.37 to 5.75) .004
Pulmonary 5/28 (17.9) 0.92 (0.33 to 2.55) .88
Obesity 20/114 (17.5) 0.86 (0.46 to 1.59) .62
Renal 6/24 (25.0) 1.48 (0.56 to 3.94) .43
Cancer 5/17 (29.4) 1.87 (0.63 to 5.55) .25
Hypertension 9/50 (18.0) 0.93 (0.42 to 2.05) .85
Neurologic 7/28 (25.0) 1.49 (0.60 to 3.72) .39
Thyroid 5/23 (21.7) 1.21 (0.43 to 3.42) .72
Presentation
severity
Severe 40/75 (53.3) 16.88 (8.20 to 34.75) <.001
Non-severe 13/192 (6.8)
MAP < 70 8/13 (38.5) 9.08 (2.82, 29.28) <.001
Hydroxychloroquine 50/260 (19.2) 1.35 (0.38 to 4.78) .64
Hydroxychoroquine
plus azithromycin
47/241 (19.5) 1.33 (0.53 to 3.37) .54
a
Asian, Native American, Pacific Islander, or not identified
.CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
Table 4: Multivariate analysis of factors associated with mortality
OR (CI) P value
Treatment group:
Ivermectin 0.27 (0.09, 0.85) .03
Control Reference
Age 1.05 (1.02, 1.09) .005
Female sex 0.69 (0.25, 1.91) .48
Current or former
smoker
3.43 (0.94, 12.48) .06
Race .165
Black 0.66 (0.22, 1.99) .464
Hispanic 0.14 (0.02, 1.10) .061
Other 0.77 (0.06, 9.88) .843
Comorbidities
Diabetes 1.13 (0.38, 3.36) .83
Cardiac 1.62 (0.45, 5.83) .46
Pulmonary 0.15 (0.17, 1.24) .08
Hypertension 1.00 (0.22 to 4.56) .99
BMI 0.99 (0.90, 1.08) .77
Severe
presentation
26.88 (8.11, 89.05) <.001
MAP < 70 mm Hg 2.10 (0.26, 7.04) .73
Peripheral white
cell count
1.09 (.958, 1.24) .19
Lymphocyte count 4.04 (1.35, 12.09) .01
.CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint

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Sobre COVID 19 - Dr. Freddy Flores Malpartida

  • 1. ICON (Ivermectin in COvid Nineteen) study: Use of Ivermectin is Associated with Lower Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID19 Juliana Cepelowicz Rajter, M.D. 1 Michael S. Sherman, M.D. 2 Naaz Fatteh, M.D. 1 Fabio Vogel, Pharm. D. , BCPS 1 Jamie Sacks, Pharm. D. 1 Jean-Jacques Rajter, M.D. 1,3 1. Broward Health Medical Center, Fort Lauderdale, FL 2. Emeritus Professor, Drexel University College of Medicine 3. Assistant Professor, Florida International University Corresponding author: Jean-Jacques Rajter, MD covid19@pscflorida.com Manuscript Word count: 2081 .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 2. Abstract Importance: No therapy to date has been shown to improve survival for patients infected with SARS- CoV-2. Ivermectin has been shown to inhibit the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro but clinical response has not been previously evaluated. Objective: To determine whether Ivermectin is associated with lower mortality rate in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Design and Setting: Retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients hospitalized at four Broward Health hospitals in South Florida with confirmed SARS-CoV-2. Enrollment dates were March 15, 2020 through May 11, 2020. Follow up data for all outcomes was May 19, 2020. Participants: 280 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (mean age 59.6 years [standard deviation 17.9], 45.4% female), of whom 173 were treated with ivermectin and 107 were usual care were reviewed. 27 identified patients were not reviewed due to multiple admissions, lack of confirmed COVID results during hospitalization, age less than 18, pregnancy, or incarceration. Exposure: Patients were categorized into two treatment groups based on whether they received at least one dose of ivermectin at any time during the hospitalization. Treatment decisions were at the discretion of the treating physicians. Severe pulmonary involvement at .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 3. study entry was characterized as need for either FiO2 ≥50%, or noninvasive or invasive mechanical ventilation. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included subgroup mortality in patients with severe pulmonary involvement and extubation rates for patients requiring invasive ventilation. Results: Univariate analysis showed lower mortality in the ivermectin group (15.0 % versus 25.2%, OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.96, P=.03). Mortality was also lower among 75 patients with severe pulmonary disease treated with ivermectin (38.8% vs 80.7%, OR 0.15, CI 0.05-0.47, P=.001), but there was no significant difference in successful extubation rates (36.1% vs 15.4%, OR 3.11 (0.88-11.00), p=.07). After adjustment for between-group differences and mortality risks, the mortality difference remained significant for the entire cohort (OR 0.27, CI 0.09-0.85, p=.03; HR 0.37, CI 0.19-0.71, p=.03). Conclusions and Relevance: Ivermectin was associated with lower mortality during treatment of COVID-19, especially in patients who required higher inspired oxygen or ventilatory support. These findings should be further evaluated with randomized controlled trials. .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 4. Introduction As of May 24th, 2020, the CDC recorded nearly 100,000 people having died of Covid-19 with at least 1,639,099 confirmed infections having been reported in the US and its territories. Covid-19 presents an unprecedented challenge to identify effective therapy for prevention and treatment. Currently, there is no evidence from randomized controlled trials of any potential therapy improving survival outcomes in patients with confirmed disease. In the late 1970s Ivermectin was developed as a new class of drug to treat parasitic infections. Initially used in veterinary Medicine, it was soon found to be safe and effective in humans. It has successfully been used to treat onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in millions of people worldwide as part of a global drug donation program. About 3.7 billion doses of Ivermectin have been distributed in mass drug administration campaigns globally over the past 30 years. Presently, Ivermectin is approved for use in humans in several countries to treat onchocerciasis, lymphatic filariasis, strongyloidiasis and scabies. 1 Ivermectin has previously been studied as a therapeutic option for viral infections with in vitro data showing some activity against a broad range of viruses, including HIV, Dengue, Influenza and Zika virus. 2,3 In a recent study, Wagstaff et al, demonstrated that Ivermectin was a potent in-vitro inhibitor of SARS-CoV-2, showing a 99.8% reduction in viral RNA after 48 hours. 4 However, in-vivo efficacy of ivermectin in SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans has not previously been reported. Methods: .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 5. Patients Sequentially consecutive hospitalized patients at four Broward Health associated hospitals in South Florida with laboratory-confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 during their admission were reviewed in this study. The list of confirmed cases was provided by the epidemiology department. Enrollment dates ranged from March 15, 2020 through May 11, 2020. Confirmatory testing was performed by nasopharyngeal swab using an FDA Emergency Use Authorized COVID-19 molecular assay for the detection of SARS- CoV-2 RNA. Patients younger than 18 years old, pregnant, or incarcerated were excluded from the data collection based on IRB requirements. Patients who had at least 2 separate admissions placing them in both groups were also excluded. Trial procedures Records were abstracted by four of the authors and all data was subsequently reviewed and confirmed by the lead author. Baseline data was collected at the time of ivermectin administration for the ivermectin group; for the usual care group baseline was either at the time of administration of hydroxychloroquine or, if not used, at the time of admission. Information collected included COVID-19 testing results, patient demographics, pre-existing comorbid conditions, initial vital signs, chest imaging studies, laboratory results, and the use of hydroxychloroquine with and without azithromycin in order to describe the cohort and to identify potential cofounders between groups. Severity of pulmonary involvement was assessed at the time of initiation of therapy (“onset”) and categorized as severe or non-severe. Patients were considered to have severe pulmonary involvement if they required an FiO2 of 50% or greater, high-flow .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 6. nasal oxygen, noninvasive ventilation, or intubation and mechanical ventilation. The non-severe pulmonary criteria encompassed patients who required no supplemental oxygen, or “low FIO2” (ie: Venturi mask 40% or less, or any amount of low flow nasal cannula), independent of radiographic or laboratory findings. Patients were categorized into two treatment groups based on whether they received ivermectin at any time during the hospitalization. Patients in the Ivermectin group received at least one oral dose of ivermectin at 200 micrograms/kilogram in addition to usual clinical care. The decision to prescribe ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin or other medications was at the discretion of the treating physicians, however hospital guidelines were established for the use of these agents as well as for cardiac and QT monitoring for patients receiving hydroxychloroquine. Oxygen and ventilatory support were applied per the customary care. Outcomes The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Patient was considered a “survivor” if they left the hospital alive, or if their status in the hospital changed from active care to awaiting transfer to a skilled facility. The latter outcome was necessitated by the requirement that two consecutive negative nasopharyngeal swab specimens for SARS-CoV-2, collected equal to or greater than 24 hours apart, were necessary for a patient to be accepted to a skilled nursing facility. Secondary outcomes included subgroup mortality of patients with severe pulmonary involvement, extubation rates for patients requiring mechanical ventilation, and length of hospital stay. .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 7. Statistical analysis Univariate analysis of the primary mortality outcome, and comparisons between treatment groups were determined by Student’s t test or Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables as appropriate, and by Pearson Chi Square test for categorical variables. The method of Hodges-Lehman was used to estimate median differences with 95% confidence intervals. To adjust for confounders and between-group differences, a multivariate analysis was performed using stepwise binary logistic regression. Patient variables included in the analysis were age, sex, comorbidities of diabetes, chronic lung disease, cardiovascular disease, and hypertension, smoking status, severity of pulmonary involvement, BMI, peripheral white blood count, absolute lymphocyte count, and use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin based on bivariate associations within our data, a priori plausibility, and documented associations with mortality from previous studies. Adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals were computed to show level of certainty. Hazard ratios for the primary outcome of mortality with 95% confidence intervals were calculated by means of the Cox regression with the same covariates. Analyses were based on nonmissing data and missing data were not imputed. Missingness of 1% was found for peripheral white blood cell count, 5% for smoking status, and 7% for absolute lymphocyte count. Secondary analyses were thus also performed on the entire cohort. All tests were 2-sided and a p value <.05 was considered statistically significant. All statistical analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS v 24.0 software. .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 8. Oversight The protocol was approved by the institutional review board for the Broward Health hospital system. The authors assume responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the data and analyses, as well as for the fidelity of the trial. Results Characteristics of the patients 307 patients were admitted for COVID-19 during the time period studied. 4 patients were not reviewed due to multiple admissions, 11 had no confirmed COVID testing at the time of the study, and 12 were excluded due to age younger than 18 years old, pregnancy, or incarceration. The remaining cohort of 280 patients was comprised of 173 treated with ivermectin and 107 in the usual care group. Follow up data for all outcomes were available through May 19th, 2020. No patients were lost to follow-up for the primary outcome. At the time of analysis, all patients in the cohort had met the endpoint of death, discharge alive, or awaiting transfer to a skilled facility. Baseline characteristics and between group comparisons are shown in Table 1. Characteristics were similar between groups, however hypertension was more prevalent in the Ivermectin group, whereas the use of hydroxychloroquine and hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin were higher in the usual care group. No other significant between-group differences were found among baseline characteristics or comorbidities, including age, race, cardiac comorbidities, or smoking status. Outcomes .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 9. Unadjusted outcomes for both groups are shown in Table 2. Overall mortality was significantly lower in the ivermectin group than in the usual care group (15.0% vs 25.2%, for ivermectin and usual care respectively, p=.03). Mortality was also lower for ivermectin treated patients in the subgroup of patients with severe disease (38.8% vs. 80.7%, p=.001). Differences in extubation rates between groups were not significant and there was also no difference in length of hospital stay. Univariate analysis found that patients dying with COVID-19 infection were older, had higher white blood cell counts and lower absolute lymphocyte counts (Table 3a) than survivors. Patients who died were also more likely to have been current or former smokers and have comorbid cardiac conditions, and were more likely to have severe pulmonary involvement and hypotension at study entry (Table 3b). In comparison to Caucasians, Blacks and Hispanics had lower odds of mortality in this cohort. In the multivariate analysis, adjusting for demographic factors, between-group differences in mortality risks, and concomitant use of hydroxychloroquine (with or without azithromycin), independent predictors of in-hospital mortality included treatment group, age, severe pulmonary disease category, and reduced lymphocyte count (Table 4). Similarly, the Cox regression showed ivermectin was associated with a significantly lower hazard ratio for mortality of 0.37 (CI 0.19 - 0.70, p=.003). Complete case analysis on the entire cohort without missing data was similar (HR 0.40, 0.22- 0.74), p=.003). Discussion .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 10. In this multihospital retrospective cohort study, we observed a significant association with ivermectin on survival for patients admitted with Covid-19. This association was also seen in the subset of patients with severe pulmonary disease. Similar to other studies, we noted that older age, cardiac disease, current or former smoking, more severe pulmonary involvement at presentation, higher white blood cell counts, and lower lymphocyte counts emerged as risk markers for in-hospital mortality. The overall mortality, and mortality in intubated patients, in our usual care group was similar to what was reported in previous studies. Richardson et al reported an overall mortality of 21% in their New York City cohort, with a mortality of 88% in intubated patients. 5 Fei Zhou et al reported a 28.2% mortality in their cohort of hospitalized patients in Wuhan, China; their intubated patients had a mortality of 96.9%. 6 In contrast to Mehra et al, we did not see a mortality effect for hydroxychloroquine, with or without the addition of azithromycin. 7 This may have been due to the small number of patients who were not treated with these agents; our study was underpowered to detect a difference. We also hypothesize that precautionary measures in the hospitals’ protocol for hydroxychloroquine use could have prevented them from developing fatal arrhythmias. These included baseline EKG and daily QT monitoring by telemetry for any patient receiving hydroxychloroquine or combination therapy, avoidance of azithromycin if patient’s baseline QTc was greater than 460msec, and discontinuation of hydroxychloroquine if there was a concerning elevation in QTc or if the patient’s cardiologist recommended discontinuation. .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 11. We did not confirm an increase risk of mortality in Blacks. This was likely due to difference in age; white patients were significantly older (66.8 vs 59.1 years; mean difference 7.7 years, CI 3.0 - 12.4, p=.001). In the Ivermectin group, thirteen patients received a second dose of Ivermectin (200 mcg/kg) on day 7, since they were still hospitalized. Due to the low numbers, we did not perform any further analysis of the redosing. We also did not observe any significant side-effect from Ivermectin use. We did not observe a significant difference in hospital length of stay between the groups (median 7 days for both groups). Possible explanation could include delay in discharging patients to other facilities (skilled nursing facilities, inpatient rehabs, etc) due to lag in obtaining required repeat COVID testing results. Need for mechanical ventilation was not adopted as outcome of interest, as national guidelines and practice patterns for intubation criteria changed throughout the length of the study. We did not find a lower mortality in the non-severe patients treated with ivermectin; however, our study was not powered to assess these differences as the overall mortality in non-severe patients was low. Similarly, the study was not powered to determine whether extubation rates were higher in the Ivermectin group. These should be investigated further with a larger randomized controlled trial. Our study has several limitations. Due to the retrospective observational nature of the study, despite adjustment for known cofounders, we cannot exclude the possibility of unmeasured confounding factors. Although more of the control group was enrolled .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 12. earlier in the study, suggesting the possibility of timing bias, this may be offset by preferential treatment of more severe patients with ivermectin early in the study due to low initial availability. We also did not find consistently better mortality outcomes with time over the short duration of this study. Most of our patients studied received hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin and we are unable to determine whether these medications had an added benefit, or whether mortality would have been better in both groups without these agents. We have shown that ivermectin administration was significantly associated with lower mortality among patients with COVID-19, particularly in patients with more severe disease. Interpretation of these findings are tempered by the limitations of the retrospective design and the possibility of confounding. Appropriate dosing for this indication is not known; nor are the effects of ivermectin on viral load, or in patients with milder disease. Further studies in appropriately designed randomized trials are recommended before any conclusions can be made. Acknowledgements Dr. Edward Gracely, Ph.D. for his support with the statistical analysis. Conflicts of interest- including relevant financial interests, activities, relationships/affiliations Juliana Cepelowicz Rajter, M.D.: none Michael S. Sherman, M.D.: none Naaz Fatteh, M.D.: none Fabio Vogel, Pharm. D. , BCPS.: none Jaime Sacks, Pharm. D.: none Jean-Jacques Rajter, M.D.: none .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 13. References: 1. Navarro M, Camprubí D, Requena-Méndez A, et al. Safety of high-dose ivermectin: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Antimicrobial Chemother. 2020; 75: 827–834. 2. Boldescu V, Behnam MAM, Vasilakis N, Klein CD. Broad-spectrum agents for flaviviral infections: dengue, Zika and beyond. Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2017; 16:565-586. 3. Wagstaff KM, Sivakumaran H, Heaton SM, Harrich D, Jans DA. Ivermectin Is a Specific Inhibitor of Importin α/β-Mediated Nuclear Import Able to Inhibit Replication of HIV-1 and Dengue Virus. Biochem J. 2012; 443:851-856. 4. Caly L, Druce JD, Catton MG, Jans DA, Wagstaff KM. The FDA-approved drug ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro. Antiviral Research 2020 178:104787. Doi: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2020.104787 (Epub ahead of print). 5. Safiya Richardson, Jamie S. Hirsch, Mangala Narasimha, et al. Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area. JAMA. Published online April 22, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.6775. 6. Fei Zhou, Ting Yu, Ronghui Du , et al. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. The Lancet, Volume 395, Issue 10229, 28 March–3 April 2020, Pages 1054-1062. 7. Mehra MR, Desai SS, Ruschitzka F, Patel AN. Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis. Lancet 2020: DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6 (Epub ahead of print) .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 14. Table 1: Patient Characteristics by Treatment Group Demographic characteristics Total (n=280) Usual Care (n=107) Ivermectin (n=173) P value Age, yearsa 59.6 (17.9) 58.6 (18.5) 60.2 (17.6) .45 Female sex 127 (45.4) 43 (41.2) 84 (48.6) .17 Race ethnicity .36 Black 153 (54.6) 55 (51.4) 98 (56.6) White 76 (27.1) 35 (32.7) 41 (23.7) Hispanic 33 (11.7) 12 (11.2) 21 (12.1) Other or not identifiedc 13 (4.6) 5 (4.7) 13 (7.5) Smoking .40 Current 16/255 (6.3) 7/99 (7.1) 9/156 (5.7) Former 30/255 (11.7) 15/99 (15.2) 15/151 (9.9) Never 209/255 (81.9) 77/99 (77.8) 132/151 (87.4) Number of comorbiditiesa 1.66 (1.34) 1.60 (1.46) 1.70 (1.27) .57 Diabetes 90 (32.1) 31 (29.0) 59 (34.1) .37 Cardiac 43 (15.4) 18 (16.8) 25 (14.5) .59 Pulmonary 28 (10.0) 14 (13.1) 14 (8.9) .18 Obesity 114 (40.7) 42 (39.3) 72 (41.6) .70 Renal 24 (8.6) 10 (9.4) 14 (8.1) .72 Cancer 17 (6.1) 8 (7.5) 9 (5.2) .44 Hypertension 50 (17.9) 13 (12.2) 37 (21.4) .05 Neurologic 28 (10.0) 8 (7.5) 20 (11.6) .27 HIV 9 (3.2) 1 (1) 8 (4.6) .09 Thyroid 23 (8.2) 7 (6.6) 16 (9.3) .42 BMIa 30.0 (7.8) 29.8 (7.2) 30.1 (8.2) .81 Severity .46 Severe 75 (26.8) 26 (24.3) 49 (28.3) .12 Non-severe 205 (73.2) 81 (75.7) 124 (71.7) .55 HRb 86.0 (75.0, 97.0) 87.0 (73.5, 95.5) 85.5 (75.3, 98.0) .65 MAP (mm Hg)b 93 (82.2, 103.0) 91 (81.5, 104) 94 (83, 103) .66 MAP < 70 mm Hg 13/260 (5.0%) 6/89 (6.7%) 7/171 (4.1%) .35 Hydroxychloroquine 260 (92.9%) 104 (97.2) 156 (90.2) .03 Hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin 241 (86.1%) 98 (91.6) 143 (82.7) .04 Peripheral white cell count (X 109 /L)b 7.3 (5.6, 10.2) (n=277) 7.0 (5.7, 8.9) (n=106) 7.6 (5.5, 11.1) (n=171) .41 Lymphocyte count (X 109 /L)b 1.15 (0.78, 1.56) (n=260) 1.14 (.84, 1.49) (n=102) 1.20 (.77, 1.67) (n=158) .62 a mean (+ SD) .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 15. b median (interquartile range) c Asian, Native American, Pacific Islander, or not identified .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 16. Table 2: Univariate Clinical Outcomes by Treatment Group Abbreviations: IQR – interquartile range. Number/total number (%) Total (n=280) Control (n=107) Ivermectin (n=173) OR (CI) P value Mortality Total 53 (18.9) 27 (25.2) 26 (15.0) 0.52 (0.29 to 0.96) .03 Severe 40/75 (53.3) 21/26 (80.7) 19/49 (38.8) 0.15 (0.05 to 0.47) .001 Non-severe 13/205 (6.3) 6/81 (7.4) 7/124 (5.6) 0.75 (0.24 to 2.3) .61 Successful extubation 17/62 (27.4) 4/26 (15.4) 13/36 (36.1) 3.11 (0.88 to 11.00) .07 Length of stay (median, IQR) 7.0 (4.0, 12.5) 7.0 (4.0, 10.0) 7.0 (4.0, 13.3) .34 .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 17. Table 3a: Univariate analysis of factors associated with mortality (continuous variables) Nonsurvivors Survivors Difference (CI) P value Age, yearsa 70.7 (15.1) 57.0 (17.6) 13.6 (8.5 to 18.8) <.001 Number of comorbiditiesa 1.81 (1.49) 1.63 (1.31) 0.18 (-0.22 to 0.59) .37 BMIa 28.3 (6.7) 30.3 (8.0) -2.0 (-4.4 to -0.33) .09 Peripheral white cell count (X 109 /L)b 9.8 (6.1, 13.2) 7.2 (5.5, 9.25) 2.1 (0.8 to 3.6) .001 Lymphocyte count (X 109 /L)b 0.77 (0.47, 1.15) 1.29 (0.90, 1.68) -0.46 (-0.63 to - 0.30) <.001 a mean (+ SD) b median (interquartile range) .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 18. Table 3b: Univariate analysis of factors associated with mortality (categorical variables) Mortality Number/total (percent) OR (CI) P value Sex Female 24/127 (18.8) 1.00 (0.55 to 1.83) .99 Male 29/153 (19.0) Reference Smoking Current or former 18/46 (39.1) 2.75 (0.14 to 0.55) <.001 Nonsmoker 28/209 (13.9) Reference Race .04 White 22/76 (28.9) Reference Black 26/153 (17.0) 0.50 (0.26 to 0.96) .04 Hispanic 3/33 (9.1) 0.24 (0.07 to 0.89) .02 Othera 2/18 (11.1) 0.31 (0.07 to 1.45) .12 Comorbidities Diabetes 19/90 (21.1) 1.23 (0.66 to 2.30) .52 Cardiac 15/43 (34.9) 2.81 (1.37 to 5.75) .004 Pulmonary 5/28 (17.9) 0.92 (0.33 to 2.55) .88 Obesity 20/114 (17.5) 0.86 (0.46 to 1.59) .62 Renal 6/24 (25.0) 1.48 (0.56 to 3.94) .43 Cancer 5/17 (29.4) 1.87 (0.63 to 5.55) .25 Hypertension 9/50 (18.0) 0.93 (0.42 to 2.05) .85 Neurologic 7/28 (25.0) 1.49 (0.60 to 3.72) .39 Thyroid 5/23 (21.7) 1.21 (0.43 to 3.42) .72 Presentation severity Severe 40/75 (53.3) 16.88 (8.20 to 34.75) <.001 Non-severe 13/192 (6.8) MAP < 70 8/13 (38.5) 9.08 (2.82, 29.28) <.001 Hydroxychloroquine 50/260 (19.2) 1.35 (0.38 to 4.78) .64 Hydroxychoroquine plus azithromycin 47/241 (19.5) 1.33 (0.53 to 3.37) .54 a Asian, Native American, Pacific Islander, or not identified .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint
  • 19. Table 4: Multivariate analysis of factors associated with mortality OR (CI) P value Treatment group: Ivermectin 0.27 (0.09, 0.85) .03 Control Reference Age 1.05 (1.02, 1.09) .005 Female sex 0.69 (0.25, 1.91) .48 Current or former smoker 3.43 (0.94, 12.48) .06 Race .165 Black 0.66 (0.22, 1.99) .464 Hispanic 0.14 (0.02, 1.10) .061 Other 0.77 (0.06, 9.88) .843 Comorbidities Diabetes 1.13 (0.38, 3.36) .83 Cardiac 1.62 (0.45, 5.83) .46 Pulmonary 0.15 (0.17, 1.24) .08 Hypertension 1.00 (0.22 to 4.56) .99 BMI 0.99 (0.90, 1.08) .77 Severe presentation 26.88 (8.11, 89.05) <.001 MAP < 70 mm Hg 2.10 (0.26, 7.04) .73 Peripheral white cell count 1.09 (.958, 1.24) .19 Lymphocyte count 4.04 (1.35, 12.09) .01 .CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.(which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted June 10, 2020..https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124461doi:medRxiv preprint