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Confronting Uncertainty in Florilandia
- 1. Confrontation Manager and Florilandia Rev Ev © War Game Mary Crannell, Idea Sciences Ben Sheppard, Ph.D. Institute for Alternative Futures July 24, 2010
- 2. Agenda 09:00 Afghanistan Narrative 09:30 Introduction to reverse war gaming: Rev Ev 10:00 Florilandia War game: Scenario briefing 10:20 Break (move to breakout rooms) 10:40 War game part A: Mapping human confrontations break out rooms as assigned 11:40 Break – reconvene in plenary room 11:50 War game part B: Comparing groups’ perspectives 12:45 Key Insights 13:00 Close
- 5. Essence of Rev Ev War Gaming CHANGE RISK… AND OPPORTUNITY UNCERTAINTY WAR GAMING creates leads to need for strategy strategic action plan
- 6. War game structure 1-2 day meeting Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Team(s): interaction of people War game outputs Consequences of actions taken in round 1 carry through to rounds 2 & 3 input i nput External environment variables Time period 1 Time period 2 Time period 3 Objective: Create and explore hypothetical but credible scenarios Develop and test strategies, plans, and responses in a “safe” environment Internal environment variables
- 13. Florilandia Simulation Trade Unions Opposition : Pro private sector Government (Legislature) Government (Executive) Private sector President Ramón Robles; President of Petroflor; Minister of Energy and Mines President of Congress; President of the Marxist Party Mayor of Puerto Salinas ; Mayor of Azucena; former Minister of Energy and Mines; former Presidents (Norberto and Garcia) Leader of the hydrocarbons industry Labor Union; Leader of the Federation of Unions (comprised of Transport Union, and the Union of Public Utility Workers) President of Petrolera Internacional USA President of Petróleos Europeos Media Editor of the Puerto (pro-opposition) ; VEA (pro governmen t) Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Map Confrontations and Build Coalitions Leverage Coalitions Implement compliance plan TEAMS TEAMS TEAMS
- 15. Room allocations Room 302: BLUE / AZUL Government (Executive) - Al Elkins Room 305: YELLOW / AMARILLO Government (Legislature) – Mary Crannell – Room 307: ORANGE / NARANJA Opposition parties (pro private sector) – Gustavo Coronel Room 309: RED / ROJO Trade Unions – Ben Sheppard Room 310: GREEN / VERDE Private sector (international oil companies) – Ricardo Castillo
- 17. Contact Details: Mary Crannell, Idea Sciences [email_address] 703 299 3480 Ben Sheppard Institute for Alternative Futures [email_address] 703-684-5880
Editor's Notes
- Reverse Evolution ｩ wargames are constructed to reflect the world as a complex adaptive system, one that is sensitive to and that evolves from sets of initial conditions. In real life, we examine and correlate or find causality by retrospectively assigning a set of initial conditions. Reverse Evolution ｩ games mirror real life in this approach. The initial conditions are arrived at in reverse from a distant future condition, goal or requirement that is both feasible and eminently possible. This differs considerably from traditional games, which tend to be designed on a technology trajectory that, in fact, encumbers those games and their players: traditional games are designed on extrapolations from today ’ s capabilities and they attempt to use those extrapolations to answer a relatively bounded problem in advance of that problem or the interdependencies that might occur that would change the problem significantly. It would be akin to imagining what one ’ s life would be like in five or 10 or even 15 years, and asking friends and family to act as players in a game of how one should proceed from that extrapolation. Strategy is ends, ways and means, and tactics are the 塗 ow to � of getting things done. At the operational level, where wargames focus, the game ’ s orientation should be on moving people, information and material in time and space. Reverse Evolution ｩ war games use these operational constants at center-stage in the design of the game, agnostic to whatever is chosen as the game ’ s scenario or time frame. Thus, a Reverse Evolution ｩ war game begins with a time-distant, hypothetical-yet-credible scenario of only the operational-level constants. Next, moving in reverse from this timeless and enduring scenario scene setter, the Reverse Evolution ｩ war game uses experts to identify the seemingly unpredictable and non-linear changes that have to happen if that scenario is to occur, to a point five years from today. At the point five years from today we can identify the initial conditions that present opportunities for initiating long-term changes in complex systems, thus not subjecting game players to extrapolated technology game design. Players use these initial conditions to begin the war game – and results better are able to show how systemic changes will open opportunities for strategies that respond to system dynamics. The result of playing a Reverse Evolution ｩ game is that players and their organizations can learn how to better extract advantages from every operational move so that resources can be used to set conditions for an organization today to exploit the changes in and across systems far into the future. Operations can then be made more efficient for the short-term and more effective in the long-term.