Assignment Option 2 Fragile State AnalysisFor your portfolio proj.docx
Senior Thesis Project
1. American Public Support for Foreign Aid in Comparative Perspective
by
Thomas Ashe
December 17, 2015
2. 1
Introduction
Foreign aid has been a hotly debated issue over many decades. People question how
much money should be allocated as well as the effectiveness of foreign aid. Additionally, they
are often misinformed about foreign aid and where it specifically goes around the world.
Recent studies conducted by WorldPublicOpinion show most people believe the percentage of
the American total budget allocated for foreign aid is around 20%, with the median estimate
around 25% (World Public Opinion 2010, online). The actual percentage spent on foreign aid
is less than one (USAID 2015, online). The difference between public assumption and actual
facts is so great it seems necessary to clearly and concretely write a thesis on this topic. The
more people know about what the government spends and why they spend it on programs
abroad can help ease various misperceptions and create a more positive dialogue for foreign
policy. Two central questions that need to be researched and answered are: (1) Why US public
opinion on foreign aid changes among groups of people, and (2) why it differs from public
opinion in other wealthy and developed countries? To help answer these questions, I will
provide a comparative perspective in regards to foreign aid, specifically focusing on Japan and
Sweden. I will be using a quantitative research design and a plethora of data sources to support
my argument, including data from World Values Survey, USAID and other government
sources, and published studies written by scholars in the international relations field.
The purpose of this research paper is to assist policy makers when deciding how much
aid to allocate from the United States. If policy makers, such as members of Congress, have a
better understanding of why and how American public opinion changes and potentially how to
address it going forward, that can help them make more informed and better decisions.
Furthermore, the additional background information policy makers have can help address the
3. 2
perception problem surrounding foreign aid. A potential result that I hope arises from this
study is that the public in the United States becomes more familiar with US foreign aid, why
the US government provides aid, and why other governments do as well. A more informed
citizenry is always beneficial and should be the goal of any government. This research paper
will try to determine why citizens in other countries, such as Japan and Sweden, view aid so
differently than from the United States. For example, aid in Japan was still supported by
government officials and the public at large when that country was going through a recession
(Henry Helmich 1996, 98). This is in contrast to the United States, where support for aid was
not universal and funding was questioned. Congresswoman Nita Lowey (D-NY), then-
Chairwoman of the House Appropriations State and Foreign Operations subcommittee in
2010, stated, “We're going to be as strong an advocate as we can be, but with 10 percent
unemployment, urgent needs at home, a trillion-dollar budget deficit, and focus on creating
jobs, there is no doubt that these factors make it a difficult political environment for expanding
our foreign assistance and development budgets” (Smith 2010, online).
This research paper uses existing data about foreign aid and combines it in an
unconventional way. It takes data and information from US public opinion and incorporates
the opinions from other countries outside the United States, as outlined above. This
combination will not only help policy makers better understand public opinion in the United
States and also those views of the international community, but also help citizens better
appreciate why citizens in other countries feel the ways they do. After compiling research and
conducting statistical testing, a person’s opinion in the United States regarding foreign aid
varies due to three socio-economic factors: their education, religiosity, and political identity.
When comparing the United States to Japan and Sweden, education and political identity were
4. 3
also relevant in Sweden while the other determinants for support for foreign aid among
Japanese citizens were completely different. Furthermore, the United States government must
implement new policies that educate the American public about foreign aid. This argument
was found through using correlation tests for all variables stated above, and others, which
include: gender, age, and income.
For all the tests, the dependent variable was represented by the public opinion in the
United States, Japan, or Sweden. The independent variables were represented by the various
variables such as education, political identity, and religiosity. Education was measured by how
much schooling one completed, such as high school, some college, or more than a bachelors
degree. Regarding religion, it was measured by the importance of religion to them. Some
scholars believe the more important religion is to a person, the more likely it is to see an
increase in support for aid (Paxton and Knack 2008, 3). These variables, as well as others,
affect how people view foreign aid. After incorporating the results from Japan and Sweden,
this provide scholars with a much more comprehensive perspective when analyzing opinion
towards aid. This comprehensive and comparative analysis not only is unprecedented, but it
will provide scholars and policy makers with another tool when conducting further research
and crafting new policy.
Literature Review and Historical Background
Helen Milner and Dustin Tingley (2013) approached foreign aid research first by
asking themselves what do the members of the public know about aid in general terms, not
necessarily numerical terms. They asked each person if they were at all familiar with five
major foreign policy organizations. These organizations included: World Bank, International
Monetary Fund, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), North
5. 4
American Treaty Organization, and World Trade Organization. At first glance, it is impressive
that almost 70% of those polled had heard of the World Bank. Conversely, only 29% of the
American public was familiar with the chief U.S. federal agency for allocating foreign aid –
USAID. Milner and Tingley then broke down their research into two separate groups, with one
group made up of those who held a 4-year college degree and the other without a degree.
Interestingly, the organization that represented the biggest increase in familiarity among
Americans with 4-year college degrees was USAID, a jump to more than 51%. One argument
can be made that the more educated the American public is the more knowledgeable they are
in regards to foreign policy. However, that assumption cannot be supported until further
research is conducted.
Grant Smith, a scholar from the Institute for Research: Middle Eastern Policy,
conducted a study in 2014 about U.S. foreign aid to Israel. Referencing a prior poll taken in
1989 by the Washington Post, he wrote about the noticeable difference in opinions held by
Americans who were knowledgeable about actual foreign aid data (Smith 2014, online). Two
groups were asked the same question, “Whether aid to Israel should be increased, decreased,
or remain the same” (Smith 2014, online). However, one group was presented with factual
numerical data related to aid and the other group was not. There was a noticeable difference.
For the group that was not given the data, six percent favored an increase, 26% favored a
decrease and 66% favored aid remaining about the same. However, for those who were given
the data, 4% favored an increase, 43% favored a decrease and 51% believed it should remain
the same. Mr. Smith compared this poll with a poll he conducted. Generally, 6 in 10
Americans felt aid allocated to Israel was excessive. This points to an increase in opposition to
aid when compared to the poll given in 1989. Mr. Smith also broke down his results by wealth
6. 5
and age. He determined that younger Americans strongly believe that too much aid is given to
Israel, when compared to other age demographics. The trend stays the same across other age
demographics, however 18-24 year olds hold a stronger opinion than 65+ Americans, for
example. In regards to wealth, only Americans earning more than $150,000 felt aid to Israel is
about right, while those making $100,000-149,999 strongly felt aid was too much (Smith
2014, online).
Pamela Paxton and Stephen Knack, in a policy paper for the World Bank, offered an
insightful explanation for why and how public opinion and countrywide opinion changes
towards foreign aid. They utilized two different data sets, one from the World Values Survey
and the other from Gallup. They concluded that a person’s religiosity, party affiliation, income
and other factors can influence their opinion’s towards foreign aid (Paxton and Knack 2008, 3-
6). The data set they used from the World Values Survey was conducted in 1995. In an attempt
to use the most up to date information as possible, I will be using the data set conducted by the
World Values Survey from 2005-2009 for all three countries: United States, Japan, and
Sweden. Regarding religiosity, they found “individuals attendance at religious services and the
importance of religion to them – is likely to increase support for aid” (Paxton and Knack 2008
3). They made this claim based on religious teachings, where Christian teachings on social
justice insist that their followers support the poor and those in need. Humanitarian and moral
beliefs could be tied to this as well, as they point out.
Paxton and Knack also acknowledge that a person’s position on the political spectrum
could predict their opinion towards foreign aid, as well as income (2008, 4). They claimed,
“Those with higher incomes have the flexibility to take risks and this is likely to encourage
trusting and altruistic behaviors of all kinds.” This would support Grant Smith’s research
7. 6
where American’s who earned more than $150,000 felt that aid to Israel was about right, and
income below that saw a decrease in support. Regarding gender, Paxton and Knack tested
whether there was a statistical correlation between a person’s gender and their opinion on
foreign aid. It is without doubt women and men differ on policies. For example, many scholars
believe that women tend to be less militaristic and opposed to war when compared to men
(Conover and Shapiro 1993). In their study, Paxton and Knack concluded that women favor
foreign aid more than men, although the significance level was just above 0.05, and one could
argue that represented a somewhat weak correlation.
Minako Morimoto (2003) offered a fascinating insight into public opinion held in
Japan, which is one of The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) countries. Japan has been the world’s largest donor of bilateral official development
assistance (ODA) since 1993, with over $13.5 million given in 2000, or 25.1% of the total
ODA of the Development Assistance Communities in that year (Morimoto 2003, 143). While
it is important to note that Japan did reduce its ODA by 10% in 1997 when it was facing an
economic recession, looking at its current standing in the world, the level of support for
international development in Japanese public opinion remains very high. In 2001, 80% polled
in Japan felt that it is necessary to “actively continue international co-operation in favour of
developing countries” (Morimoto 2003, 143). That is a remarkable number, not only because it
is 80% but also because Japan was enduring a recession during that time.
In the same published study, Ida Mc Donnell (2003) addressed public opinion held in
Sweden, another country that is a member of OECD. Sweden also is a leader among the
world’s most generous aid donors. This is measured by its gross national income devoted to
official development assistance (0.76 percent). While this number represents a decline,
8. 7
government leaders there do not blame the decrease in weak public support for aid, but rather
to fiscal reforms and cuts. Political support remains high for development in Sweden. Notably,
the support for the current ODA budget rose to 68% from 52% in 1996. Additionally, 71% of
Swedes expressed “positive attitudes towards development co-operation” (Mc Donnell 2003,
201). Sweden is also one of the largest DAC per capita spenders on development education.
SIDA, Sweden’s international development agency, gives high priority to educating the public
about international aid and spending. It is focused on becoming accountable and evaluating its
activities and projects. Japan and Sweden offer a unique narrative when comparing their
beliefs or opinions to that of the United States. Support is higher there and educating the public
is higher there, which may explain the low support for aid in the United States. In my research,
I will attempt to compare the findings above collected by various scholars with my own, using
data from the World Values Survey.
Historical Background
Steve Kull (2011) in his policy brief centered on the history of foreign aid, outlines a
communications approach for countering attacks on foreign aid. He first looks at historical
trends and attacks on aid and then addresses concerns about aid effectiveness. It is important to
understand historical drifts and perspectives when examining foreign aid, such that one forms
a collective context when discussing aid. In the 1990s, attacks on aid began to come to fruition
under the then-Senator Jesse Helms, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee in the U.S.
Senate. Many people at that time felt that tax dollars should be spent on domestic projects, not
ones outside the United States. Misinformation was given out regarding the amount of aid
given and the effectiveness of it. For example, Senator Helms claimed that the U.S. had spent
more than $2 trillion on foreign aid, which is misleading (Masland 1994, online). That number
9. 8
represented what the United States had given to foreign countries from 1942 up until the
1990s. Senator Helms failed to include that in his statement. This kind of misinformation
would explain polls where respondents felt that money should be spent in the United States –
not abroad, as Helms suggested. In regards to the ineffectiveness of aid, as Kull points out,
little evidence was offered to show that aid was not working. The only claim offered was that
there were still large numbers of poor people in the world. This perception can be connected to
the fallacy surrounding the inaccurate amount of aid Americans believed the U.S. was
spending. If the amount of money spent had been correlated to public opinion, the results
would have been clearly different. Kull carefully examines historical evidence to show that
American opinion towards aid has changed and that it is important to understand why and how
it has changed.
United States Public Opinion for Foreign Aid and Analysis
As mentioned above, the data I will be using is from a survey conducted by the World
Values Survey (WVS) from 2005-2009. In addition, a bivariate analysis will be presented to
establish whether a correlation is found or not between public opinion and the various
independent variables. Out of 1249 respondents, 308 of them answered the question: “How
much more do you think this country should contribute?” The question is labeled in the data
as, “How much more foreign aid this country should contribute.” While there is a difference
between the two questions presented, for the purposes of this research I will assume that the
interviewer asked respondents the question with the words ‘foreign aid’ included. Possible
answers for this question were:
About one and half times as much
About twice as much
About three times as much
About four times as much
10. 9
More than four times as much
Not applicable
No answer
Regarding education level, respondents chose from the following choices:
Complete primary school
Incomplete secondary school: technical/vocational type
Complete secondary school: technical/vocational type
Incomplete secondary school: university-preparatory type
Some university-level education, without degree
University-level education, with degree
Table 1. US Education and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (significance level)
Education .167
(.003)
___________________________________________________________________________________________
As shown above, a positive statistical correlation was established for education level and an
increase in public opinion for foreign aid in the United States. As one’s education level
increases so does their knowledge of information, which explains this correlation. Many
colleges require their students to enroll in classes that they may not be majoring in, and due to
that, they are subjected to information they might not have encountered if they were not in
college. In addition, they could develop an interest to stay knowledgeable about current events
and international news. Just as support for aid rises as education level rises, it would be
expected that support would decrease as education level attained decreases as well.
Furthermore, this supports Milner’s and Tingley’s (2013) research as this confirms their
findings.
In the WVS, income was represented by several different variables. I chose to use the
variable that measured income by asking respondents what category they felt their household
11. 10
fell into. It is important to note that this variable is subjective given the fact that it is biased,
since the respondents self-reported. Ten categories were used for respondents to classify
themselves as a member of. As one rises in ‘step’ or category, so would their household
income. Below are the ten possible options respondents chose from:
Lower step
Second step
Third step
Fourth step
Fifth step
Sixth step
Seventh step
Eighth step
Ninth step
Upper step
Table 2. US Income and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Income .094
(.106)
____________________________________________________________________________
Most respondents fell in the fifth and sixth step, which would be equivalent to the middle
class. Table two represents the correlation test conducted between income and public opinion.
A correlation was found not to exist between these two variables since the significance level
was above the 0.05. Interestingly to note, this finding contradicts what Pamela Paxton and
Stephen Knack concluded in their research, which would indicate this variable may be
inconclusive and more research needs to be done to determine whether a correlation exists for
income and public opinion towards foreign aid.
12. 11
Following Paxton’s and Knack’s determination that religiosity was a variable that
could influence public opinion, I decided to test that argument as well. Similar to income,
religiosity was measured in several different ways. Accordingly, the variable used asked:
“Independently of whether you attend religious services or not, would you say you are …”
Possible answers included:
A religious person
Not a religious person
A convinced atheist
Table 3. US Religiosity and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Religiosity .173
(.002)
___________________________________________________________________________________________
The overwhelming majority, almost 70%, considered themselves a religious person. 23.4% of
respondents who answered the question felt they were not a religious person. Atheists made up
about 4% of respondents. Since the significance level found was 0.002, there is a positive
statistical correlation between a religious person and their support for foreign aid. This
correlation, like above, makes sense. Religious people tend to be more generous and willing to
give to those who are in need. Foreign aid can very much represent the poor because many
countries that receive aid are developing and poor countries, or those who are request medical
assistance. Jewish, Christian, and Muslim teachings, for example, do ask their followers to
give to their temple/church/mosque and help those who need it. This can be associated to their
support for foreign aid as well, as they see that the United States should provide poorer nations
with resources that they do not have. This once again supports Paxton’s and Knack’s findings
in their research.
13. 12
For this research project, gender was also considered and tested for correlation.
Respondents were asked whether they are male or female. Males and females were almost
equally represented, with the breakdown being 51% female and 49% male. It is interesting to
note that for those who responded, more than 400 for both males and females combined felt
that this question was “not applicable.” Why this occurred is unknown, however, this was
disregarded and the data that was available was used. In almost every category, more females
felt the need to increase the amount of money spent on foreign aid. Table four below shows
there is a negative statistical correlation between gender and support for an increase in foreign
aid. The significance level found was 0.027 and the Pearson Correlation test was found to be -
0.126. Since the Pearson Correlation resulted in a negative number, men are less like to
support foreign aid when compared to women, which support Paxton’s and Knack’s argument.
Table 4. US Gender and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Gender -.126
(.027)
One of the most important factors/variables driving or reducing foreign aid opinions is
political identity. The WVS measured this by asking respondents to self-position themselves
on the political scale. Respondents were asked to rate themselves on a scale of 1-10 according
to how politically left or right they felt, with 1 falling all the way to the left and 10 being fully
to the right. More than 50% of the respondents self-identified as moderates, identifying as a 5
or 6 on the political scale. As table 5 below shows, a negative statistical correlation was
established, with a significance level at 0.000144. As the total number of individuals who self-
identity as “right” on the political scale increases, the number of individuals who support an
14. 13
increase in foreign aid decreases. This makes sense because conservatives, or those who those
on the right side of the political aisle, tend to not favor spending more taxpayer money on
foreign aid, just as then-Senator Jesse Helms did not. Many on the “right” typically want their
money to be spent on domestic programs.
Table 5. US Political Identity and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Political Identity .217
(.000144)
The last variable tested for the United States was age. Age was measured by asking
respondents what their age was. Ages varied from 18-91, with the most represented being 40-
50 year olds. As table six below demonstrates, no relationship or correlation was found
between age and an increase in support for foreign aid. Since the Pearson Correlation was
almost at zero and also negative, which indicated a very week relationship between the
variables. The older a person was the less support there was for an increase in foreign aid. This
contrasted to what Grant Smith concluded in his findings, where younger Americans were the
highest demographic to oppose increases in foreign aid.
Table 6. US Age and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Age -.052
(.365)
___________________________________________________________________________________________
15. 14
Japan Public Opinion for Foreign Aid and Analysis
According to OECD reports, education in Japan is one of the most respected in the
world, with literacy rates and enrollment in school staying very high (Miyamoto & Ikesako
2014, 7). Without conducting the correlation test for education and support for foreign aid, one
would expect a correlation exists due to Japan’s respected education system and what Minako
Morimoto found in his research. However, after collecting the data, a correlation was not
found between education and support for an increase in foreign aid in Japan, as seen in Table
seven. According to the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), public opinion towards
aid has dwindled. In the Ministry’s annual report in 2003, public opinion collected by the
government revealed many doubts about the Official Development Assistance (ODA) in recent
years (Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2003, online). As Morimoto indicated in his research, there
was stagnation in the Japanese economy, however, the MOFA did not find an increase in
public support for foreign aid.
Table 7. Japanese Education and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Education .090
(.281)
According to the OECD, household net-adjusted disposable income per capita in Japan
is slightly higher than in the United States, standing at USD 26,111 (OECD 2015, online).
Before the correlation test was conducted, one would believe that after including that data and
the correlation not found in the United States for income, the same conclusion would follow
with Japan. However, as demonstrated below in Table eight, a correlation was established
between income in Japan and support for an increase in foreign aid. As one’s household
16. 15
possessed more income, more support was generated for an increase in foreign aid. It is
important to note that in the WVS, the top three categories for income was composed of the
lowest three classifications. This would lead one to conclude that not only is the wealthy class
generous in supporting more foreign aid, so is the least affluent, something not evident in the
United States. Still, more testing incorporating more people in Japan across income classes is
needed to determine if a strong correlation exists.
Table 8. Japanese Income and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Income .183
(.036)
Arguably a very important factor for measuring support for foreign aid in any country,
religion actually does not play a major role in every day society in Japan. Over 30% of citizens
in Japan consider themselves “convinced atheists” (Fisher and Dewey 2013, online). In the
WVS data, almost 55% of those polled considered themselves not a religious person and 12%
considered themselves a convinced atheist. As Table nine indicates, no correlation was
established. The vast difference in the amount of atheists in the United States and Japan would
explain why the two countries differ in correlation for religion and public support for foreign
aid.
Table 9. Japanese Religiosity and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Religiosity -.006
(.944)
17. 16
Unlike the data for the United States, the breakdown for men and women who
participated in the survey in Japan was not equal. Men made up about 44% of respondents and
women made up almost 56% of respondents. Due to that, results from the correlation test may
be skewed towards a certain gender. Table 10 below illustrates no correlation exists between
gender and public opinion for foreign aid. Moreover, this result may have been different if the
respondents in Japan were more equal in terms of gender, like it was the United States. Further
testing is needed in regards to this variable since this data is likely not valuable and virtually
no previous research has been done to determine if a correlation exists between the two.
Table 10. Japanese Gender and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Gender -.032
(.706)
____________________________________________________________________________
The two major political parties of Japan – the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP)
and the Democratic Party of Japan (DJP) – both strongly support foreign aid and the ODA,
Japan’s agency that regulates and allocates foreign aid. The 2005 DPJ Manifesto for The 2005
House of Representatives Election specifically outlined their platform for foreign aid stating:
“We will reposition ODA as a diplomatic tool for achieving desirable
outcomes from the perspectives of the environment, human rights, conflict
prevention, peace building, human development, humanitarian aid to
African nations, collaboration with non-governmental organisations
(NGOs), countermeasures against infectious diseases, fine-tuned small
loans (microcredit) to the poor, human security, and so forth” (Democratic
Party of Japan 2005, 25).
In June of 2015, Kenya Akiba, Director of the Foreign Affairs Division for Japan,
stated in an interview, “That is why we must see ODA as an "investment into the future," use it
wisely, and ensure that there is, ultimately, a large payoff for Japan as well” (Liberal
18. 17
Democratic Party of Japan 2015, online). Clearly both parties support foreign aid, even though
the DJP is the socially liberal party and the LDP is the conservative party (Soble 2012, online).
This background information is important to take into account because as outlined in Table 11
below, no correlation exists between political identity and support for an increase in foreign
aid. Most respondents in the survey who answered the question to identity themselves on the
political spectrum fell in the middle. This makes sense due to the fact that the two major
political parties in Japan are both supportive of foreign aid.
Table 11. Japanese Political Identity and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Political Identity .048
(.604)
____________________________________________________________________________
For the data regarding age in Japan, ages varied from 18 to 79, with no predominant
age demographic polled. As Table 12 demonstrates below, a correlation exists between a
person’s age in Japan and their support for an increase in foreign aid. Not only did this finding
contrast with the United States, the Pearson Test result in Japan was more than double than the
United States score. This indicates a stronger relationship where the younger a person was,
support for an increase in foreign aid decreased. Although Grant Smith conducted his research
on American public support for foreign aid, it is interesting to note this finding coincides with
his theory. Specifically in this case, younger Japanese citizens do not support an increase in
foreign aid.
19. 18
Table 12. Japanese Age and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Age .168
(.043)
Sweden Public Opinion for Foreign Aid and Analysis
As stated above, Sweden was the only country in this study to have any similarities
with the United States concerning correlations between the six independent variables and an
increase in support among public opinion in foreign aid. Education served as the first example.
Education in Sweden is also very respected like in Japan. In 2013, Sweden spent USD 12,426
per student from primary to post-secondary education, more than the OECD average of USD
9,487 (Ranchin 2014, online). Therefore, it is no surprise that a positive correlation was found
between education level attained in Sweden and an increase in support for foreign aid, as
shown in Table 13.
Table 13. Swedish Education and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Education .155
(.001)
In Sweden, the average household net-adjusted disposable income per capita is
USD 29,185 a year, more than the OECD average of USD 25,908 a year (OECD 2015,
online). However, there is a significant gap between the wealthiest and poorest, which
supports and explains the frequencies found within the data from the WVS. In the data, the top
20. 19
two steps/categories respondents self-identified with were the fourth and upper categories. 132
respondents fell in the fourth category while 176 fell in the upper category, which represents
the lower and highest classifications. This may explain why income does not correlate in
Sweden, since there is such income disparity among households. Table 14 below outlines this
finding.
Table 14. Swedish Income and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Income .020
(.685)
____________________________________________________________________________
Religion, like Japan, does not play an active role in Sweden. According to a study that
was conducted in 2014 and reported in 2015, “Almost eight out of ten Swedes are either "not
religious" or "convinced atheists” (The Local 2015, online). The data provided by WVS
validates this study, since those who self-identified as “not a religious person” and “a
convinced atheist” collectively made up over 65% of respondents. With this information, one
would expect that religiosity does not correlate with increased support for foreign aid, and
Table 15 below substantiates that theory. While religion is not a factor that drives support for
foreign aid, a robust education system and well-informed citizenry does.
Table 15. Swedish Religiosity and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Religiosity .049
(.301)
____________________________________________________________________________
21. 20
The gender of respondents in Sweden for the WVS survey was evenly balanced,
similar to that in the United States survey. About 500 men and 500 women made up the
respondents for the survey. Due to gender being equally represented, one can analyze the
results without expecting any distortion based on imbalance. Like in the United States, there
was a week negative relationship, where men would be less likely to support an increase in
foreign aid. This finding supports a survey that was conducted in 1993, entitled, “Opinions of
Men and Women on Seven Foreign Security Policy Issues.” In that study, men and women
were asked if Sweden should reduce foreign aid. Ulf Bjereld, a scholar in Sweden who
incorporated the survey in his article, found that on a scale of 1-100, more women found it to
be a bad idea when compared to men (Bjereld 1993, 307). (Women had a score of -15 and men
had a score of -5).
Table 14. Swedish Gender and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Gender -.021
(.665)
____________________________________________________________________________
Politics, like in the United States, plays a major role in Sweden for both the citizenry
and policy makers when discussing foreign aid. The largest party by membership and by those
serving in parliament is the Swedish Social Democratic Party (The Local 2015, online).
Charlotte Petri Gornitzka, current Director-General for Sweden’s international development
agency, stated in 2014 in a speech to USAID personnel, “This global resilient partnership
offers us a platform to work with these issues in a forward looking manner that integrates –
and this is important – we need to integrate so much more the work we do” (USAID 2014,
22. 21
online). Although appointed by a member of the moderate party in 2010 to her position,
Director-General Gornitzka has continued to serve in this position even though her current
boss, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, is a member of the Social Democratic Party (Nordberg
2015, online). As displayed by Table 15 below, political identity strongly correlates with
increased public support for foreign aid. Additionally, as one would expect, the further right
one falls on the political scale the more support for foreign aid decreases, and vice versa.
Table 15. Swedish Political Identity and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Political Identity -.133
(.006)
Regarding age, Sweden also did not have a predominant age demographic polled in the
survey conducted by WVS. It was equally scattered. Ages varied from 18 to 85 and as
demonstrated below in Table 16, age did not correlate with an increase for public support for
foreign aid in Sweden. This finding contradicted a previous survey conducted in 1999 that
found age did correlate, with “younger people [being more] included to be more positive
towards development co-operation” (Mc Donnell 2003, 204). More research and correlation
tests must be conducted to determine if age does influence one’s opinion towards foreign aid,
as it is currently inconclusive due to conflicting findings.
Table 16. Swedish Age and Public Opinion Correlation
Variable Coefficient (with significance level)
Age -.055
(.247)
23. 22
Policy Recommendations
The United States, Japan, and Sweden are all countries that allocate a remarkable
amount of foreign aid to countries all around the world. The purpose of this paper is not to
debate whether these countries are providing enough aid, or whether the aid is successful, the
purpose is to find ways in which the American public can be more informed in regards to
foreign aid and foreign policy. As stated above, many Americans believe foreign aid makes up
a very high percentage of the federal budget, which is not accurate. This can be due to the
factors researched above, and also other external factors, such as the news media. However,
the United States government must be innovative going forward to ensure most Americans are
not misinformed on this topic.
Unlike Japan and Sweden, the United States government itself does not conduct polling
and surveys on this topic, or any other topic. The United States government relies on NGOs
and other private sector firms for polling data. This strategy is clearly not working and
something different must be done. USAID by itself, or in a joint effort with other government
agencies and/or private firms should conduct these polls. It would eliminate the burden private
firms face when acquiring the data through Freedom of Information Act requests and
ultimately remove the middleman in the process. The Swedish government, for example,
supports the implementation of regular opinion polls in Georgia through the National
Democratic Institute (NDI). The NDI is working in Georgia with the support of Sweden’s
international development agency to “promote women politicians in all parties and increase
women's political participation” (SIDA 2015, online). Partnerships like this can be
implemented in the United States and both the executive branch and legislative branch will
24. 23
benefit greatly. In addition, an increased engagement between state actors and non-state actors
will help the government work more efficiently.
As found above, education level attained correlated with an increase in support for
foreign aid. What does this mean for the United States government? The U.S. Department of
Education must provide more funding to public high schools across the country and offer more
affordable loans and grants to students who wish to earn college degrees. According to the
OECD, the direct costs of higher education in the United States are the highest among all
OECD countries (Bolognini and Makowiecki 2014, online). In addition, data available from
2008-2011 shows the United States was “one of six countries to cut, in real terms, public
expenditure on educational institutions” (Bolognini and Makowiecki 2014, online). Important
to note, Japan and Sweden were not one of those six countries. This is exactly what the United
States government should not be doing. Not only has the government reduced funding for
educational institutions, costs for attending schools of higher education remain the highest,
which places a tremendous burden on students. If students cannot afford to attend college and
their secondary high schools lose funding, one would only expect test scores to decrease and
their knowledge of international affairs to be very low or inaccurate. One initiative that the US
Department of Education should consider implementing again and/or modifying on an annual
basis is the Race to the Top program. As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act, this initiative allocated billions of dollars to states and school districts if rigorous
standards and better student and teacher assessments were developed, among other reforms
(The White House 2015, online). Through programs like this, the United States can achieve
tangible results and successes and ultimately, a more educated and engaged citizenry will be
attained.
25. 24
Just as education influences public opinion, so does political identify, as the research
above demonstrates. While policy makers and citizens will always hold dear core political
beliefs, what the US government can do, specifically the executive branch, is inform members
of the legislative branch and citizens that substantial success is being made across the globe,
like reductions in poverty rates and improving child mortality rates. Many initiatives and
programs at USAID provide people with new lives they could never have dreamed of. In
addition, USAID ensures they have a sustainable future so that their new lives are not
something that only lasts for a short period of time. If USAID and the Department of State can
partner with the firms they already work with, like Catholic Relief Services, and publish
newsletters documenting success stories, public opinion may be able to be altered for the
better. Newsletters are only one part of the equation; however, a new marketing strategy can
be composed of a modern social media campaign that reaches all socio-economic
demographics. In addition to that, leaders of the executive branch and the private firms they
partner with can speak at schools of higher education, informing them of the accomplishments
made and potential employment opportunities for students interested in the international
relations field.
These recommendations are just some ways for the United States government to
convince the American public that foreign aid is something they should support and want to
invest in. Because ultimately, this money is not the government’s, it is the taxpayer’s and as
with any government program, it is the government’s responsibility to show that the program
is worth funding and it will be spent efficiently and wisely. These goals are achievable; the
question remains does the United States government consider this a priority? With budget cuts
26. 25
seemingly dominating the political and news cycle, one would assume that the government
would soon consider this a high priority.
27. 26
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