1) Exchange rates have a short-term impact on trade balances but a weaker link in the medium and long run, as structural factors are more influential.
2) Structural factors like uneven financial development, social safety nets, trade reforms, and demographic changes like rising sex ratios can significantly impact savings rates and trade balances.
3) Trade reforms in labor abundant countries can paradoxically increase trade surpluses through general equilibrium effects, as returns to capital fall and incentivize capital outflows. Exchange rates are not always the best tool to correct trade imbalances.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
The 2018 edition of the OECD Business and Finance Outlook addresses connectivity, both among institutions within the global financial system and among countries. Almost a decade on from the 2008 financial crisis, the Outlook examines new risks to financial stability that will put financial reforms to the test, focusing in particular on the normalisation of monetary policy, debt problems and off-balance sheet activity in China. It also examines how supply-side and demand-side policies can help ensure foreign infrastructure investment is high quality, sustainable and works for all, with particular reference to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Find out more information at https://oe.cd/2lH
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
The 2018 edition of the OECD Business and Finance Outlook addresses connectivity, both among institutions within the global financial system and among countries. Almost a decade on from the 2008 financial crisis, the Outlook examines new risks to financial stability that will put financial reforms to the test, focusing in particular on the normalisation of monetary policy, debt problems and off-balance sheet activity in China. It also examines how supply-side and demand-side policies can help ensure foreign infrastructure investment is high quality, sustainable and works for all, with particular reference to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Find out more information at https://oe.cd/2lH
Raimundo Soto - Catholic University of Chile
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel - Catholic University of Chile
ERF Training on Advanced Panel Data Techniques Applied to Economic Modelling
29 -31 October, 2018
Cairo, Egypt
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel - Catholic University of Chile
Raimundo Soto - Catholic University of Chile
ERF Training on Advanced Panel Data Techniques Applied to Economic Modelling
29 -31 October, 2018
Cairo, Egypt
Premier University[B.B.A]
International Financial Management
Presentation Subject
EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION
Submitted to
Lecturer:Ms.Nilufar Sultana
Department of Finance
Faculty of Business Administration
Premier University, Chittagong.
Semester: 8th Section: “A” Batch :22nd
Group Name: D
The Key factor that has resulted policy issues in equity and debt of international Finance due to the “International finance liberalization”
There are certain factors that could result policy issues in equity and debt of international finances which has furnished below.
Covering the sequence and order of financial liberalisation,
Capital controls,
exchange rate policy
asymmetric information
Essay Technique: Monetary and Supply-Side Policiestutor2u
Slides from a revision webinar looking at an answer to this question: "Monetary policy is as important as supply-side policies in making a country more internationally competitive” With reference to examples, to what extent to you agree? (25)
Upward Social Convergence in the EU: definition and measurement - Massimilia...Massimiliano Mascherini
This presentation was given at the seminar co-organized by Eurofound and the Italian Permanent Representation to the European Union on 6/11/2019
It is based on the report
“Upward Convergence in the EU:
Concepts measurements and Indicators”
Which is available here:
https://goo.gl/ttS8wY
background document of the seminar:
The European Union was defined by the World Bank as the “modern world’s greatest convergence Machine” for its capacity of propelling least performing Member States towards best performing countries in both the economic and social dimension.
The economic crisis halted upward convergence trends especially in employment and living conditions. While since 2013 convergence trends are coming back, the gravity of the crisis heightened the need to address social asymmetries besides the economic ones. The idea that “economic and social convergence should go hand in hand” is now central to the policy debate. The recently proclaimed European Pillar of Social Rights aims at being a compass to upward convergence towards better working and living conditions.
However, what is social convergence? And what is upward convergence? And how do we measure it? While these two concepts are now more and more popular in the European policy debate, scientific literature around them is scarce. According to Scopus, among the 30,000 scientific articles in economy or social science discussing convergence, only 55 discuss social convergence and even fewer upward convergence of which not a real definition exists.
For this reason, the aim of the seminar is to:
• Discuss the definition of upward convergence,
• Measure upward convergence, differences and caveats of the various measurements,
• Assess where Europe is in terms of upward convergence and the latest trends the social dimension of the European Union,
• See how Italy behaved in terms of upward convergence in comparison to other countries.
As one hint of what Eurofound will present on 6 November, our first results show that over the period 2008-2016, while the employment and activity rate as well as social exclusion index and AROPE reveal an upward convergence trends, some other indicators exhibit a pattern of either downward convergence (material deprivation and in-work poverty as well as long-term unemployment rate and average weekly hours worked) or downward divergence (Inequality, NEET rate, unemployment rate, involuntary temporary work and part time) with greater differences at the regional level.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Yes of course, you can easily start mining pi network coin today and sell to legit pi vendors in the United States.
Here the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network #pi coins #legit #passive income
#US
Raimundo Soto - Catholic University of Chile
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel - Catholic University of Chile
ERF Training on Advanced Panel Data Techniques Applied to Economic Modelling
29 -31 October, 2018
Cairo, Egypt
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel - Catholic University of Chile
Raimundo Soto - Catholic University of Chile
ERF Training on Advanced Panel Data Techniques Applied to Economic Modelling
29 -31 October, 2018
Cairo, Egypt
Premier University[B.B.A]
International Financial Management
Presentation Subject
EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION
Submitted to
Lecturer:Ms.Nilufar Sultana
Department of Finance
Faculty of Business Administration
Premier University, Chittagong.
Semester: 8th Section: “A” Batch :22nd
Group Name: D
The Key factor that has resulted policy issues in equity and debt of international Finance due to the “International finance liberalization”
There are certain factors that could result policy issues in equity and debt of international finances which has furnished below.
Covering the sequence and order of financial liberalisation,
Capital controls,
exchange rate policy
asymmetric information
Essay Technique: Monetary and Supply-Side Policiestutor2u
Slides from a revision webinar looking at an answer to this question: "Monetary policy is as important as supply-side policies in making a country more internationally competitive” With reference to examples, to what extent to you agree? (25)
Upward Social Convergence in the EU: definition and measurement - Massimilia...Massimiliano Mascherini
This presentation was given at the seminar co-organized by Eurofound and the Italian Permanent Representation to the European Union on 6/11/2019
It is based on the report
“Upward Convergence in the EU:
Concepts measurements and Indicators”
Which is available here:
https://goo.gl/ttS8wY
background document of the seminar:
The European Union was defined by the World Bank as the “modern world’s greatest convergence Machine” for its capacity of propelling least performing Member States towards best performing countries in both the economic and social dimension.
The economic crisis halted upward convergence trends especially in employment and living conditions. While since 2013 convergence trends are coming back, the gravity of the crisis heightened the need to address social asymmetries besides the economic ones. The idea that “economic and social convergence should go hand in hand” is now central to the policy debate. The recently proclaimed European Pillar of Social Rights aims at being a compass to upward convergence towards better working and living conditions.
However, what is social convergence? And what is upward convergence? And how do we measure it? While these two concepts are now more and more popular in the European policy debate, scientific literature around them is scarce. According to Scopus, among the 30,000 scientific articles in economy or social science discussing convergence, only 55 discuss social convergence and even fewer upward convergence of which not a real definition exists.
For this reason, the aim of the seminar is to:
• Discuss the definition of upward convergence,
• Measure upward convergence, differences and caveats of the various measurements,
• Assess where Europe is in terms of upward convergence and the latest trends the social dimension of the European Union,
• See how Italy behaved in terms of upward convergence in comparison to other countries.
As one hint of what Eurofound will present on 6 November, our first results show that over the period 2008-2016, while the employment and activity rate as well as social exclusion index and AROPE reveal an upward convergence trends, some other indicators exhibit a pattern of either downward convergence (material deprivation and in-work poverty as well as long-term unemployment rate and average weekly hours worked) or downward divergence (Inequality, NEET rate, unemployment rate, involuntary temporary work and part time) with greater differences at the regional level.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Yes of course, you can easily start mining pi network coin today and sell to legit pi vendors in the United States.
Here the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network #pi coins #legit #passive income
#US
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
1. Exchange Rate and Trade Imbalance
Shang-Jin Wei
Columbia University Business School
Chazen Institute of International Business
2. Exchange Rate and Trade
• Separate effect on trade vs effect on trade
balance
• A country’s trade balance is tightly linked to a
country’s current account balance, which, as a
matter of accounting identity, has to be equal
to the difference in the country’s national
savings and national investment, or the
country’s net capital outflows
3. • Since others have discussed
extensively about the effect
of exchange rate on trade, I
will concentrate my remarks
on trade balance
• The intense discussion in
the policy circles on the so-
called current account
imbalances
4. What causes trade (or current
account) imbalance?
Candidate explanations:
Nominal exchange rate policy
Structural factors that affect savings (and
investment)
5. What causes trade (or current
account) imbalance?
Candidate explanations:
Nominal exchange rate policy
Most talked about but perhaps least relevant
structural factors that affect savings (and
investment)
Uneven financial development
Uneven social safety net
A rise in the sex ratio in certain countries
Trade reforms in certain countries
6. The role of nominal exchange rate policy
• Common confusion
– Real exchange rate vs nominal exchange rate
– If nominal exchange rate is fixed, relative inflation rates across
countries could still cause the RER to adjust
• Can one engineer a sustained departure of the real
exchange rate (RER) from its long-run equilibrium?
– Maybe for 2-3 years for an over-valued RER
– Key: goods prices (and nominal wages) are sticky downward
– However, very hard to maintain an under-valued RER for the
same duration because prices can go up more easily than down.
– The literature in empirical international finance suggests that
the RER converges to the equilibrium level relatively quickly.
This is especially true if the required correction is an increase in
the value of the RER
7. Example: In the short run, trade balance responds to
change in exchange rate
8. However, in the medium-run and long-run, the
link is much weaker
• Japanese yen is on a floating exchange rate
regime
• Japan has not intervened in the exchange rate
market since 2004 (until more recently)
• Yet, Japanese trade balance and current
account have been in surplus in most years
9. • This tells us a few things:
– Despite the short-term correlation between
nominal exchange rate and real exchange rate, the
medium-term correlation is close to zero
– There are likely structural factors in the Japanese
economy that cause the country to run a trade
(and current account) surplus
– A flexible exchange rate does not guarantee the
disappearance of a trade surplus (or deficit)
10. The role of nominal exchange rate policy
• What about international evidence on a change
in the nominal exchange rate regime?
• Does a change in the exchange rate regime from
a peg to a floating system speed up the current
account adjustment?
• Menzie Chinn and S.J. Wei, 2012, “A faith-based
initiative meets the evidence: Does a more
flexible exchange rate facilitate current account
adjustment”? Review of Economics and Statistics
11. • No strong and robust support for the notion that a
more flexible exchange rate regime produces a faster
convergence of current account to its long-run
equilibrium
• True for both developing and developed countries
• True after excluding China from the sample
• Reference: Chinn and Wei, 2012, RESTAT
12. Structural factors
underlying trade imbalance
– A rise in the sex ratio
– A wave of major trade reforms
– Uneven financial development across countries
– Uneven social safety net across countries
13. Sex ratio imbalance and current account imbalance
• A rise in the sex ratio for the
pre-marital age cohort in
several countries (e.g.
Singapore, Vietnam, Korea,
China) takes place about the
same time as a rise in these
countries’ trade surplus and
current account surplus
14. • What’s the connection between the
sex ratio and trade balance?
• Why did the rise in the sex ratio in
China start around 2002 (just when
its current account surplus became
more prominent)?
• How strong can the effect be?
15. Percentage of Chinese counties
with Ultrasound B machines
source: Chen, Li, Meng (2010)
• What’s the connection between the
sex ratio and trade balance?
– Competitive savings for the marriage
market
• Why did the rise in the sex ratio in
China start from 2002?
– spread of ultrasound B + family
planning policy
• How strong can the effect be?
– A strong biological urge implies a strong
economic effect (50% of the increase in
Chinese savings since 1990)
Sex ratio and saving rate in China:
1975- 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent
of
Counties
with
Ultrasound
Device
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year
16. More Rigorous Evidence
from households and regions in China
• “The competitive savings motive: evidence from
rising sex ratios and savings rates in China”
– S.J. Wei and X.B. Zhang, Journal of Political
Economy, 2011
– Household-level evidence
• Saving for children a key reason for
savings, especially when having a son
• A combination of having an
unmarried son and living in a region
with a high sex ratio -> high savings
rate
– Cross regional evidence
– Quantitative effect: 50-60% of the rise
in savings
– The rise in the sex ratio also triggers a
rise in the corporate savings rate
– So national savings becomes higher
Sex ratio and saving rate in China:
1975- 2005
17. Trade reforms and trade balance
• Counter-intuitive result
– Or a case of a general equilibrium effect overturns a partial
equilibrium intuition
• Partial equilibrium intuition:
– Example: When China reduces import barriers, its imports
would go up and trade surplus would go down
• General equilibrium result:
– When China reduces import barriers, this puts downward
pressure on domestic return to capital, and hence an
incentive to send part of the domestic savings to foreign
countries. This means it would increase trade surplus.
– This is accomplished by having the exports to expand at a
faster rate than imports
18. Trade reforms and trade balance
• Logic :
– China is a labor abundant country
– It has strong comparative advantage in labor-intensive products
– Trade reforms reduce the domestic price of capital intensive
good
– This tends to reduce the domestic return to capital (“The
Stolper-Samuelson theorem”)
– … and creates an incentive for capital outflows (or a rise in the
current account surplus)
Reference: Ju, Shi, and Wei, 2012, “trade reforms and current
account imbalances: does the general equilibrium effect
overturn the partial equilibrium intuition?”
19. More than a coincidence: China’s WTO accession and
the rise of its current account surplus
20. • Interestingly, the same conceptual framework
indicates that the end of the MFA quotas in
the U.S. per se has a tendency for the U.S. to
increase its trade deficit:
– End of MFA quotas reduces the prices of
garments/textiles (labor intensive products)
– This by itself tends to raise the return to capital in
the U.S. (again, the Stolper-Samuelson theorem)
– … and creates an incentive for the US to import
capital (i.e., to run a current account deficit)
21. Cross country evidence
• Identify trade reform episodes
– A reduction in average tariff rate by 3 pct pts or
more within 2 years
– An increase in imports/GDP by 3 pct pts within 3
years
• Check if k-intensity has increased
• Check if CA/GDP has increased
22. Trade reforms that tend to reduce a country’s capital
intensity tends to generate a current account surplus
23. • Some implications
– Asking a labor abundant country to do more market
access reforms could induce the country to have a
bigger not a smaller trade surplus
– The part of trade balance generated by trade
reforms tend to die out once the reforms are
completed
24. • There are other structural factors that could
also generate a current account imbalance
– Uneven financial development
– Uneven social safety net
– …
25. Policy Lessons
• Exchange rate policy may have played a smaller role in
the patterns of trade (current account) imbalances
than commonly assumed
• Not all trade imbalances need a policy correction
– For example, some trade imbalances may be generated by
efficient trade reforms
• Some trade imbalances are socially inefficient, but
exchange rate is not the appropriate tool for correction
– For example, the part of trade imbalance generated by a
sex ratio imbalance is indeed inefficient, but the exchange
rate correction could make things worse
26. • For references or detailed presentation of the
theories and evidence discussed here, one
might check out
– www.nber.org/~wei