1. Reconstruction in Lebanon
A Cement deliveries time series perspective
Ghalia Hamamy, PhD.
Once upon a time, the independence delivered a country named Lebanon in 1943. Despite
that Lebanon was a heaven on earth due to its ecological environment; unfortunately, its
geography turned it to be a nightmare. Since these very old times, the history of Lebanon
witnessed several ups and downs due to its neighbors. Therefore, the political unrest shacked
since 1958 it civil peace and launched a fifteen years-war (1975-1990) that destroyed
Lebanon, killed and injured its people, and ravaged its economy.
Believing in the Phoenix Legend, Lebanon was not created to bow to defeat. The
reconstruction started in Fall 1992, when the Late Prime Minister Rafic Hariri came to power.
His administration elaborated the Horizon 2000 Plan to reconstruct the country. With a
Keynesian inspiration of welfare state, this government willed to rebuild the destroyed public
infrastructure as an incentive for future national private and foreign direct investment in
Lebanon. Several administrative errors accompanied the reconstruction plan such the debt
and the budget deficit vertiginous increases. However, seeing only the filled half part of the
glass, the reconstruction revamped the economy and we do now have Lebanon with its
somehow “modern” infrastructure. Several economic sectors benefited of this revamp
namely, the real estate sector relying heavily on cement deliveries.
According to the Central Bank of Lebanon data between January 1993 and December 2014,
84,231,291 tons of cement were delivered. The year 1993 witnessed the delivery of 2,587,470
tons. This quantity increased to reach 5,516,827 tons in 2014. Therefore, the increase was of
113.2%.
But as Lebanon cannot live without troubles due to its geographic surrounding, the
reconstruction period based on tons of cement witnessed ups and downs also like its history.
Hence, let us examine this reconstruction through the times series of cement deliveries (1993-
2014).
The Hariri Administration started the reconstruction in 1993. “Shoghol mashi wel balad
mashi, wala yhemmak”! Everything was OK and therefore, the cement deliveries witnessed
an increase of 53.4% between 1993 and 1995.
1996 was an unpleasant year for Lebanon as it witnessed an Israeli aggression that killed and
displaced Lebanese and destroyed again the recently built infrastructure. Therefore, the
cement deliveries started decreasing starting since 1996. This decrease kept on till 2002 (-
34.4%). This period was characterized by a political unrest and national debts that needed to
be repaid. Paris II conference was the solution to restore the economy and to save Lebanon
from the bottle of the neck in this regard. Otherwise, the heavily indebted little country will
be deficient and will be badly rated by the international financial platforms.

2. The economy revamped again and consequently, the cement deliveries starting 2003 till 2011
(113.3%). This increase in the cement deliveries during this period was even slightly higher
than the 1993-2014 period increase. As a matter of fact, the assassination of Prime Hariri in
2005 was not to mention in the field of cement deliveries as the reconstruction kept on. A
very remarkable year was 2006 which witnessed a massive killing and destruction wave due
to a new Israeli aggression. The period ex-post August 2006 witnessed a huge reconstruction
process as all the destroyed Mohafazats and mainly the Southern suburb of Beirut had to be
rebuilt. Thus, cement deliveries increased significantly. This explains the 113.3% increase.
Starting 2012, the cement deliveries were cyclical as they increased in 2013 compared to
2012 and then decreased in 2014. What were the reasons? Was the Arab Spring the cause of
this cyclical movement? Or was it the non-dynamic real estate sector in Lebanon where
luxurious apartments were very expensive for young Lebanese to buy?
Finally, would the cement deliveries increase especially with groups supporting young
Lebanese to own apartments such as the CR Group?
These are questions that should be answered by specialists in the field of real estate.
Therefore and as we say in French, “A vos plumes” specialists!
References for statistics:
www.bdl.gov.lb