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Secondary education – Economy – Regional
Development


 Does the secondary education (with skilled
 labour) serve the needs of Foreign Investors?

 Attila, Debreczeni Senior Consultant




Finpro CSE – March 17, 2009
Topics



                                                              Are the labour
                                                               availability &
                                                             skills the critical
                                                                  factors?



                                            Future outlook
                                Case        & feedbacks
                                studies &
                                feedbacks
             Finnish Foreign Direct
             Investments –
             Developments &
             Presence in Hungary
Foreign Direct
investments –
academic &
Finnish way




                                                                               © Finpro ry
FDI – academic approach & Finnish way in the CSE Region




                       Product life cycle                                    Finnish way
Neoclassical – Int.
                           (Vernon)
   Trade Theory
 (Smith, Ricardo)

                 Industrial
                                            Approach/          Market-      Resource   Efficiency-   Strategy
                organisation
                                                               seeking      -seeking   seeking       assets-
                                            Region
                  (Mason)
                                                                                                     seeking
                                            Scandinavia             X          X                        X
                                            Baltic                  X          X            X           X
                                            Russia                  X          X
                                            Germany                 X                                   X
           Resource-seeking
                                            Western EU              X                                   X
             Market-seeking
                                            Eastern EU              X          X            X
           Efficiency-seeking
                                            China                              X            X
       Strategy assets-seeking
                                            India                              X            X
                                            USA                     X                                   X

                                            Source: Finpro analyses, 2008


                                                                                   © Finpro ry
Development of Finnish FDI

                        • Total stock of Finnish FDI: € 60.2 bn.
                        • Quadrupled in 10 years
                        • Major sectors (2007): Manufacturing (~36%), Financials
                        & insurance (~33%) & other services (~31%),
                        • Manufacturing share decreasing
                        • FDI destinations: majority in Sweden (~23-25%),
                        Netherlands (~20-22%), Belgium (~23-25%),, Germany &
                        USA
Development of Finnish Trade & FDI in CSE

                                    FDI Hot spots
Presence of Finnish FDI and companies in Hungary


 FDI History               350 Exporters
                           Almost 200 companies with Finnish capital
     1990                  Appr. 20 manufacturing companies
                           Finnish-Hungarian trade exceeds 1 bn. euro
                           Total Finnish investments ca. 1,200 -1,300 million euros
                           Finnish companies employ close to 20,000 persons in Hungary


                                                     Sales offices            R&D / Planning
                            Productional
     1999
                         Nokia Mobile Phones                                Nokia R & D
                                                  UPM
                         Elcoteq                                            3C Hungary (CCC)
                                                  M-Real
                         Sanoma Budapest                                    ICM
                                                  Stora Enso
                         Perlos                   Martela
                         Savcor                   Tikkurila
                         M-Real                   Kone
                         Stora Enso Packaging     Kone Cranes
     2008                Kemira GrowHow           Fiskars
                         Rautaruukki              Wärtsilä
                         Scanfil                  Ensto
                         Lindström                Etc.
                         Helkama Forste
                         Clairia
                         Hansa Print
~ € 1.2 – 1.3 bn.        Raflatac
                         Huurre
Does the secondary education (with skilled labour)
             serve the needs of Foreign Investors?


1.   Main findings of some      1.   Future outlooks
     case studies
2.   Feedback from some
     businessmen




                       Suggestions
Case 1

                                  A Finnish software company
Evaluator:                                                                                                      City
                                                                                      Factor weight    sub-weight        score
1. COSTS                                                                                  50 %           100 %
Cost development (#1 criterion)                                                                           70 %            65

Current costs: total cost, personnel costs as key component, travel costs from Oslo
and Hki, investment incentives (#2 criterion)                                                              30 %           70
                                                                                                      weighted score     66,5
2. COMPETENCIES                                                                           30 %            100 %
Skill availability (11 person)                                                                            70 %            80
Availability of English language and technical skills (from universities)                                  30 %           90
                                                                                                      weighted score      83
3. INDUSTRY                                                                               10 %            100 %
Existing industry (SW industry, telecom sector (network vendors, operators, billing
system vendors –both large and SME’s), also examples for acquisition targets/
partner model                                                                                             30 %            80
University co-operaration                                                                                 20 %            75
Outsourcing availability/ culture (less important)                                                        20 %            80
Employee turnover (qualitative estimate), too much competition?                                            30 %           60
                                                                                                      weighted score      73
4. OTHER                                                                                  10 %            100 %
Flight connections/ travel logistics (to Oslo & HKI, EU, CSEE, MENA) (3)                                  40 %            75
Attractiveness to expatriates (2)                                                                         30 %            80
Level of business culture (experiences from working with western companies) and
development trend (3)                                                                                     30 %            80
                                                                                                      weighted score      78
                                                                 TOTAL SCORE/400         100 %                   300,5
                                                          Factor weighted score/100       100                     73
Case 2

                            A Finnish electronics
                                  company
   Costs                                                          30%


  Cost of Labour
Basic structure of labour costs
Statutory minimum wages
Annual development of average gross wages (region & local/blue collar, white collar, management)
Annual development of average net wages (region & local/blue collar, white collar, management)
Employers contributions 2006
Employees contributions 2006
Development of employee contributions 2000-2005
Development of employers contributions 2000-2005
Typical benefits on top of base salary for blue collar workers
Typical benefits on top of base salary for managers
Typical benefits on top of base salary for white collar workers
Market movement 2000-2005 on base pay and total
compensation
Government and EU employment support availability?
Case 3


      A Finnish manufacturing company

                                         Factor weight   sub-weight
 1. SUPPLIER BASE                           20 %
 Within ~400 km radius / 8-9 hours
 truck drive                                                  100 %
 2. RESOURCES                               35 %              100 %
 Management & other white collars                              40 %
 Blue collars                                                  40 %
 Corporate support, `easy access`                              20 %
 3. OPERATIONAL SCALABILITY                 15 %              100 %
 Factory in 6,000 sqm; 10,000 sqm;
 20,000 sqm (in 2011)                                          80 %
 Outside storage space: ~ 20,000 sqm                           20 %
 4. POLITICAL INVESTMENT
 MANAGEMENT                                 10 %              100 %
 Enforceability of local contracts                             50 %
 Possibility for investment incentives                         50 %
 5. COST COMPETITIVENESS                    20 %
 Labour                                                        80 %
 Facility                                                      20 %
                                                              100 %
Table 1: Decisionattractiveness on labour issues
      2: Country factors

                        Feedbacks from Finnish Businessman

       5 Finnish businessmen were interviewed;
       Sectors: ICT & Manufacturing
       Special note: Not representative research

                Decision factors                             Country attractiveness on labour issues
    Factors                 Weights, %                                    Poland Slovakia Hungary Romania Bulgaria
    Country macro-stability                          Skill availability      3      1        2       4       4
                                 10
    Labour costs                 25                   Technical skills       3      1        2       4       3
    Labour skills                10                   Availability of
    Location                     30                  English language         4     3        4       1        2
    Incentive system              5                    Motivation &
    Infrastructure,                                    commitment             3     3        2       3        4
    education system                                 Innovative skills        3     2        2       4        4
                                 20
                                                        Supportive
    Total:                           100 %
                                                    educational system        3     3        3        3       4
                                                            Total            16     13      15       19      21
                                                   Ranking                   III.   I.      II.      IV.     V.

                                                                          1 - the
                                                   Scales:                best
                                                                          7 - the
                                                                          worst
- Main findigns
               Hungary vs. CSE Region




                     New comers




        Labour issues as Critical factors:
        1.   Skills;
        2.   Available quantity in 50-60 km radius;
        3.   Other foreign companies in the neighbourhood - negative
        4.   Near by universities (mainly at ICT);
Future outlook: GDP – forecast for 2009



                               ?




                                                                                           -1,2
USA -09     EU -09                                             ?
 -1,6                                                                                                                                 JPN -09
             -1,8
                                                                           -1,4                                                         -2,4
                                                                                                -4,7
USA 2010   EU 2010
                                                                                                                                      JPN 2010
                                                                                            ~ 10 -
  +1,7      +0.5                                     -1,0                                    -6,9                      +2,0             -0,5
                                                                                            12%
                           -5,0
                                    -2,8
                                                                                           -4,0
                                              -2,0
                                                                                                       n.a.
                                                                                 +2,0
                                           -1,9         -2,3
                                                     -0,9
                                                                    +1,7                                      -4,0
                                                                                                                                          India
                                                                                  +2,7

                                                                                                                                         & China
                                   -1,8                            -1,2
                                                                                  -1,6
                                                                    +0,6
                                                                                                +1,8
                                                      -2,0                +1,0
              -1,6      -2,0
                                                                                   +7,0
                                                                                                   +1,8


                                                                                                                     +1,0
                                                                                         +0,2

                                                                                                                               UAE
                                                                                                                              +1,5%
                                                      +0,7
                                                                                                 +1,1
                                                                                                                               SA
                                                                                                                              +2,5%

Source: EU Commission
                                                                                                                                         © Finpro ry
Future outlook: Unemployment and forecast > or <



                                ?




                                                                                           7,8>
            EU -09                                             ?
             8,7
                                                                           7,9>
                                                                                                8,8>
           EU 2010                                                                                                        10<
                                                                                            ~8-
            +9,5                                     4,5>                                   10,4>
                                                                                            14%
                          9,7>
                                     8,2<
                                                                                           8,8>
                                              4,1>
                                                                                                       n.a.
                                                                             8,4>
                                            8,0>        7,7>
                                                     4,9>
                                                                    5,7>                                      2,2>
                                                                                                                                         India
                                                                                  10,6<

                                                                                                                                        & China
                                    9,8->                          5,1>
                                                                                  8,8>
                                                                    5,2<
                                                                                                7,0<
                                                                           12<
                                                      8,2>
              8,8>      16,1>
                                                                                   20
                                                                                                  6,3>


                                                                                                                     11
                                                                                         9,0>

                                                                                                                                UAE
                                                                                                                                n.a.
                                                      7,4>
                                                                                                 5,1>
                                                                                                                                 SA
                                                                                                                                 n.a.

Source: EU Commission
                                                                                                                                        © Finpro ry
Suggestions




    Updated                         Cooperation        Promotion
 database on         Improve
   available
                      English                           English
                                       With ITD
  resources
                                                       webpage
                  language skills     Hungary &
    -Alumni-                                               &
                    of students     relevant Trade
        &                                            Success stories
                                      promotion
                                       agencies
50-60 km radius




                                                                       © Finpro ry
Introduction of Finrpo CSE & ME

                                                 Matrix organisation
                                  Industries
             Region
                                  Construction
               5
                                  Logistics
              RITs
                                  Machinery
                                  ICT
                                  Energy
                                  Environment
              Black See                           Hqr: Vienna
                                  Forestry
                                                  Prague




                                                                      Regions
            Power Triangle        Life Science
                                                  Budapest
                                                  Bucharest
                                                  Sofia
                                                  Istanbul
                                                  Riyadh
                                                  Dubai




 More information: www.finpro.fi
                                                                © Finpro ry

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R Finnagora Seminar 090317 Ade D

  • 1. Secondary education – Economy – Regional Development Does the secondary education (with skilled labour) serve the needs of Foreign Investors? Attila, Debreczeni Senior Consultant Finpro CSE – March 17, 2009
  • 2. Topics Are the labour availability & skills the critical factors? Future outlook Case & feedbacks studies & feedbacks Finnish Foreign Direct Investments – Developments & Presence in Hungary Foreign Direct investments – academic & Finnish way © Finpro ry
  • 3. FDI – academic approach & Finnish way in the CSE Region Product life cycle Finnish way Neoclassical – Int. (Vernon) Trade Theory (Smith, Ricardo) Industrial Approach/ Market- Resource Efficiency- Strategy organisation seeking -seeking seeking assets- Region (Mason) seeking Scandinavia X X X Baltic X X X X Russia X X Germany X X Resource-seeking Western EU X X Market-seeking Eastern EU X X X Efficiency-seeking China X X Strategy assets-seeking India X X USA X X Source: Finpro analyses, 2008 © Finpro ry
  • 4. Development of Finnish FDI • Total stock of Finnish FDI: € 60.2 bn. • Quadrupled in 10 years • Major sectors (2007): Manufacturing (~36%), Financials & insurance (~33%) & other services (~31%), • Manufacturing share decreasing • FDI destinations: majority in Sweden (~23-25%), Netherlands (~20-22%), Belgium (~23-25%),, Germany & USA
  • 5. Development of Finnish Trade & FDI in CSE FDI Hot spots
  • 6. Presence of Finnish FDI and companies in Hungary FDI History  350 Exporters  Almost 200 companies with Finnish capital 1990  Appr. 20 manufacturing companies  Finnish-Hungarian trade exceeds 1 bn. euro  Total Finnish investments ca. 1,200 -1,300 million euros  Finnish companies employ close to 20,000 persons in Hungary Sales offices R&D / Planning Productional 1999 Nokia Mobile Phones Nokia R & D UPM Elcoteq 3C Hungary (CCC) M-Real Sanoma Budapest ICM Stora Enso Perlos Martela Savcor Tikkurila M-Real Kone Stora Enso Packaging Kone Cranes 2008 Kemira GrowHow Fiskars Rautaruukki Wärtsilä Scanfil Ensto Lindström Etc. Helkama Forste Clairia Hansa Print ~ € 1.2 – 1.3 bn. Raflatac Huurre
  • 7. Does the secondary education (with skilled labour) serve the needs of Foreign Investors? 1. Main findings of some 1. Future outlooks case studies 2. Feedback from some businessmen Suggestions
  • 8. Case 1 A Finnish software company Evaluator: City Factor weight sub-weight score 1. COSTS 50 % 100 % Cost development (#1 criterion) 70 % 65 Current costs: total cost, personnel costs as key component, travel costs from Oslo and Hki, investment incentives (#2 criterion) 30 % 70 weighted score 66,5 2. COMPETENCIES 30 % 100 % Skill availability (11 person) 70 % 80 Availability of English language and technical skills (from universities) 30 % 90 weighted score 83 3. INDUSTRY 10 % 100 % Existing industry (SW industry, telecom sector (network vendors, operators, billing system vendors –both large and SME’s), also examples for acquisition targets/ partner model 30 % 80 University co-operaration 20 % 75 Outsourcing availability/ culture (less important) 20 % 80 Employee turnover (qualitative estimate), too much competition? 30 % 60 weighted score 73 4. OTHER 10 % 100 % Flight connections/ travel logistics (to Oslo & HKI, EU, CSEE, MENA) (3) 40 % 75 Attractiveness to expatriates (2) 30 % 80 Level of business culture (experiences from working with western companies) and development trend (3) 30 % 80 weighted score 78 TOTAL SCORE/400 100 % 300,5 Factor weighted score/100 100 73
  • 9. Case 2 A Finnish electronics company Costs 30% Cost of Labour Basic structure of labour costs Statutory minimum wages Annual development of average gross wages (region & local/blue collar, white collar, management) Annual development of average net wages (region & local/blue collar, white collar, management) Employers contributions 2006 Employees contributions 2006 Development of employee contributions 2000-2005 Development of employers contributions 2000-2005 Typical benefits on top of base salary for blue collar workers Typical benefits on top of base salary for managers Typical benefits on top of base salary for white collar workers Market movement 2000-2005 on base pay and total compensation Government and EU employment support availability?
  • 10. Case 3 A Finnish manufacturing company Factor weight sub-weight 1. SUPPLIER BASE 20 % Within ~400 km radius / 8-9 hours truck drive 100 % 2. RESOURCES 35 % 100 % Management & other white collars 40 % Blue collars 40 % Corporate support, `easy access` 20 % 3. OPERATIONAL SCALABILITY 15 % 100 % Factory in 6,000 sqm; 10,000 sqm; 20,000 sqm (in 2011) 80 % Outside storage space: ~ 20,000 sqm 20 % 4. POLITICAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 10 % 100 % Enforceability of local contracts 50 % Possibility for investment incentives 50 % 5. COST COMPETITIVENESS 20 % Labour 80 % Facility 20 % 100 %
  • 11. Table 1: Decisionattractiveness on labour issues 2: Country factors Feedbacks from Finnish Businessman 5 Finnish businessmen were interviewed; Sectors: ICT & Manufacturing Special note: Not representative research Decision factors Country attractiveness on labour issues Factors Weights, % Poland Slovakia Hungary Romania Bulgaria Country macro-stability Skill availability 3 1 2 4 4 10 Labour costs 25 Technical skills 3 1 2 4 3 Labour skills 10 Availability of Location 30 English language 4 3 4 1 2 Incentive system 5 Motivation & Infrastructure, commitment 3 3 2 3 4 education system Innovative skills 3 2 2 4 4 20 Supportive Total: 100 % educational system 3 3 3 3 4 Total 16 13 15 19 21 Ranking III. I. II. IV. V. 1 - the Scales: best 7 - the worst
  • 12. - Main findigns Hungary vs. CSE Region New comers Labour issues as Critical factors: 1. Skills; 2. Available quantity in 50-60 km radius; 3. Other foreign companies in the neighbourhood - negative 4. Near by universities (mainly at ICT);
  • 13. Future outlook: GDP – forecast for 2009 ? -1,2 USA -09 EU -09 ? -1,6 JPN -09 -1,8 -1,4 -2,4 -4,7 USA 2010 EU 2010 JPN 2010 ~ 10 - +1,7 +0.5 -1,0 -6,9 +2,0 -0,5 12% -5,0 -2,8 -4,0 -2,0 n.a. +2,0 -1,9 -2,3 -0,9 +1,7 -4,0 India +2,7 & China -1,8 -1,2 -1,6 +0,6 +1,8 -2,0 +1,0 -1,6 -2,0 +7,0 +1,8 +1,0 +0,2 UAE +1,5% +0,7 +1,1 SA +2,5% Source: EU Commission © Finpro ry
  • 14. Future outlook: Unemployment and forecast > or < ? 7,8> EU -09 ? 8,7 7,9> 8,8> EU 2010 10< ~8- +9,5 4,5> 10,4> 14% 9,7> 8,2< 8,8> 4,1> n.a. 8,4> 8,0> 7,7> 4,9> 5,7> 2,2> India 10,6< & China 9,8-> 5,1> 8,8> 5,2< 7,0< 12< 8,2> 8,8> 16,1> 20 6,3> 11 9,0> UAE n.a. 7,4> 5,1> SA n.a. Source: EU Commission © Finpro ry
  • 15. Suggestions Updated Cooperation Promotion database on Improve available English English With ITD resources webpage language skills Hungary & -Alumni- & of students relevant Trade & Success stories promotion agencies 50-60 km radius © Finpro ry
  • 16. Introduction of Finrpo CSE & ME Matrix organisation Industries Region Construction 5 Logistics RITs Machinery ICT Energy Environment Black See Hqr: Vienna Forestry Prague Regions Power Triangle Life Science Budapest Bucharest Sofia Istanbul Riyadh Dubai More information: www.finpro.fi © Finpro ry