An Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Webinar. You’ve spent long days planning a major project and finally see light at the end of the tunnel. But when you present the timeline to management, you’re told to significantly shorten it. A shorter timeline is doable, but the chances of success will be radically diminished. What do you do? One option is to conduct a PERT Analysis. By implementing PERT (Program Evaluation Review Technique), you can determine whether a desired schedule can be achieved and the related consequences when the schedule is adjusted. This webinar will explain how to use this simple, yet powerful, project management method. Whether you’re a full-time project manager or simply someone who manages an occasional project, this webinar will equip you with tools and techniques that will help you clearly explain timetables and the requirements to ensure project success.

1. Welcome!

2. Today’s Agenda
• Welcome and Introduction—Bill
Gibbs, Webinar Coordinator
• Presentation by Dr. Jim Marion
• Questions and Answers
• Upcoming Webinars and Degree
BriefingBill Gibbs
Director, Campus Outreach
Webinar Coordinator

3. What is your interest in Project Management?
Poll #1

4. A few session pointers
• We will answer questions at the conclusion of the presentation.
At any time you can post a question and we will answer as
many as we can
• Slides are available for download at any time
• The recording link will be emailed to you
• A participation certificate is available upon request
• Be sure to complete our survey.

5. What are some of the problems you have
encountered while managing projects?
Poll #2

6. Dr. James Marion, PMP
• Assistant Professor Embry-Riddle Aeronautical
University-Worldwide
• Certified Project Management Professional (PMP)
• Multiple product launches in U.S., Europe and Asia
• Panasonic Senior Executive Development Program
• Chair, M.S. in Engineering Management Program
• Faculty member in M.S. Project Management
• Ph.D. in Organization and Management
• Three Master’s degrees

7. Project Management
Solutions to Help You
Stay on Schedule and
on Budget
Dr. Jim Marion, PMP
Program Chair and Assistant Professor
MS in Project Management
Depart of Management Sciences
College of Business

8. Basic assumptions
• Staying on schedule and on budget requires
that you have an achievable schedule to
begin with
• Sponsoring executives often don’t have
visibility of the risks associated with their
schedule requests.
• YOU can help them! Looks ok
to me!

9. A typical scenario…..
Say…I need you to take
charge of our office
relocation project…..that
would be great….

10. What do you do?
• An office relocation is:
– Temporary (has a beginning and ending)
– Unique
– Complex
– Uses resources
– Therefore…it’s a project!

11. What’s next? Getting Started
• Formal authorization…the charter
• Identify who is involved, who is interested in the
outcome, who might be willing to help …..the
stakeholders
• Determine exactly WHAT needs to be done….the
SCOPE
• First boil it down…the scope statement
• Then, expand….the WBS

12. The charter…
Say…I am going to need
you to sign off on this
formal authorization for
this project...that would
be great….

13. The scope statement
We will assess our current needs as
well as growth needs for the next
three years. We will identify, select,
lease, and create an office layout in a
new building and move our company.
We will seek to use as much existing
infrastructure as possible. Modifying
our existing building will NOT be
considered as an option.

14. The stakeholders
• Who is involved in the project?
• Who is affected by it?
• Who has an interest in it?
• Who should we think about in the larger
community?

15. A High-Level WBS for the Office
Relocation
…a hierarchical and
categorical structured
outline of the project
deliverables…

16. The Task List (high level)…
1 New location requirements
2 New location search
3 Select location
4 Inventory current location
5 New location layout
6 Select moving company
7 Order utilities
8 Purchase network & servers
9 Negotiate lease
10 Pack furniture
11 Pack computer equipment
12 Transport moved items
13 Unpack
14 Cutover to new network
15 Close existing building
Include only those tasks
required for producing
the deliverables in the
WBS..!

17. 1 New location requirements
2 New location search
3 Select location
4 Inventory current location
5 New location layout
6 Select moving company
7 Order utilities
8 Purchase network & servers
9 Negotiate lease
10 Pack furniture
11 Pack computer equipment
12 Transport moved items
13 Unpack
14 Cutover to new network
15 Close existing building
The initial schedule
estimate...
Summing the red boxes
(“critical path”) = 130
days
Here we put tasks in logical order so we
can see how long the project takes!

18. Another typical scenario…..
Say…I’m going to
need you to reduce
your schedule by
ten days…that
would be
great…thanks….
Oh no!

19. How to respond?
• Ask for a project brainstorming meeting with
sponsoring executives
• Present high level schedule for office relocation
• Ask for consensus of “Best-Case”, “Worst-Case”
and “Optimistic” durations for each element of
schedule.
• Show probability of achieving estimated
schedule, AND
• MOST importantly—show probability of
achieving the requested schedule reduction.

20. Develop High-Level Schedule Based on Executive
Estimates….
2
days
1 day
3
days
Hmmm.
.
…well..uhm.
...

21. 1 New location requirements
2 New location search
3 Select location
4 Inventory current location
5 New location layout
6 Select moving company
7 Order utilities
8 Purchase network & servers
9 Negotiate lease
10 Pack furniture
11 Pack computer equipment
12 Transport moved items
13 Unpack
14 Cutover to new network
15 Close existing building
BC ML WC Result Rounded
7 10 12 9.83 10
25 30 35 30.00 30
25 30 35 30.00 30
7 10 12 9.83 10
15 20 25 20.00 20
8 10 13 10.17 11
3 5 7 5.00 5
3 5 7 5.00 5
3 5 7 5.00 5
3 5 7 5.00 5
131Total
Compile estimates
using weighted
average:
BC+4*ML+WC
6
Compiling the executive
estimates….

22. Now what do I do with
these weighted averages?
1. Add all estimates of the task durations on the critical
path to find the project overall average estimate.
2. Find the project standard deviation.
3. Calculate the probability of achieving the estimated
schedule—and the requested reduced schedule.
4. Show your boss the duration that gives you a 95%
probability of success!
Because you are using averages—you can
use the normal curve in order to calculate
schedule probability!
Now that’s
a nice trick!

23. Why probability? Why use this
normal curve thing?
1. Things we sample in nature tend to follow
the normal curve (height, age, income, etc.)
2. The probability of falling near the middle
(average of mean), is higher than falling far
from the middle (i.e. “outliers”)
3. If we know the mean (“average”) and
standard deviation (“how wide the normal
curve is”), we can calculate probability.

24. 1. +/- 1 SD= 68% of area under curve
2. +/- 2 SD= 95% of area under curve
3. +/- 3 SD= 99% of area under curve
4. The mean is at the 50% area (or probability)
point. (Therefore, starting from 0, +1 SD =
50% + ½ of 68%=84%)
“Ballparking” the
probability..(for those who
don’t carry a “Z Table” in
your wallet)…

25. What is the project standard deviation?
How to find it?
• Find the variance of each task:
– (𝑊𝐶 − 𝐵𝐶)/6))2
• Add the variances of each activity on the
critical path:
– 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒1 + 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒2 + ⋯ .
• Take the square root of the sum of the
variances
– (𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒1 + 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒2 … )

26. So what is the project standard deviation? What
does it mean?
BC ML WC Result Rounded
7 10 12 9.83 10
25 30 35 30.00 30
25 30 35 30.00 30
7 10 12 9.83 10
15 20 25 20.00 20
8 10 13 10.17 11
3 5 7 5.00 5
3 5 7 5.00 5
3 5 7 5.00 5
3 5 7 5.00 5
131Total
Project SD Calculation
BC WC Variance
7 12 0.69
25 35 2.78
25 35 2.78
7 12 0.69
15 25 2.78
8 13 0.69
3 7 0.44
3 7 0.44
3 7 0.44
3 7 0.44
12.19
3.49
Sum of Variances
Square Root
Critical Path Variances
Project Estimated Duration: 131 Days
Project Standard Deviation: 3.49 Days
Hmmm…..
what
now??

27. 1. +/- 1 SD= 68% of area under curve
2. +/- 2 SD= 95% of area under curve
3. +/- 3 SD= 99% of area under curve
4. The mean is at the 50% area (or probability)
point. (Therefore, starting from 0, +1 SD =
50% + ½ of 68%=84%)
Interpreting the numbers:
The 131 days estimate is a sum of
averages. It is a mean of expected
times. Therefore, 131 days is at
the center of the normal curve
and represents a 50% probability
of achievement!
Since the project SD is 3.49, and
your boss wants you to reduce by
10 days, the probability of actually
doing that is calculated like this:
-10/3.49= -2.86 SD
Since +/-2SD is 95% area, then the
probability of achieving this is:
100-(50+(95/2))= <2.5%!
But what is 95%
probability? 131 +
(about 1.5) * 3.49=
about 137 days!

28. What you now get to say….
Hmmmm….
We will certainly
do our best to
reduce the
schedule 10
days…however…
According to your
own estimates, we
have only a 2.5%
chance of
achieving this….
Now don’t you wish
YOU could say this?!

29. 1. PERT can help you get agreement on the schedule you need to
be successful by using the very estimates of the management
team pushing you for a reduced schedule.
2. The probability of achieving a schedule built using weighted
averages of estimates is only 50%!
3. Schedule reductions from the 50% estimate drop the probability
rapidly (how rapidly depends upon the project SD!)
4. What you really need is a 95% probability schedule. This requires
adding at least (ballpark) 1.5 SDs worth of duration to your
project schedule.
5. The statistics are easy, and may be done on a white board—right
in front of those executives!
Lessons learned
Yay!

30. QUESTIONS?

31. Upcoming Webinars:
May 12 Create Communications that Really Make the Point: Writing
Effective Emails, Reports, and Messages
June 9 How to Write a Resume that Gets Results
webinars.erau.edu

32. Before you log out…
1. If in the live session…complete our live session
survey. (stay tuned)
2. If viewing the recording, click the “On Demand”
Survey Link here:

33. Join us for a Degree Briefing!
Thursday, April 21(one week from today)
2 p.m. Eastern (USA) (same time as today)
Covering:
• Bachelor of Science Technical Management --
Project Management Major
• Master of Science in Project Management
• PMP Exam Prep Course (OPE)
webinars.erau.edu

34. Thank You!
This concludes today’s webinar.
Watch for a follow up email that contains:
1. How to get a Participation Certificate
2. Link to the recording
3. Link to the webinar survey (if viewing the recording)
4. Registration info on the Degree Briefing
Bill Gibbs, Webinar Series Coordinator
Bill.Gibbs@erau.edu

35. The next slide is the survey
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