Probabilistic Forecasting Uses the expected value of a future project to estimate overall revenues based on contracted, proposed, and projected work Tends to correctly estimate overall revenue and identify upcoming gaps In the example shown, revenues drop off significantly in period 7 – indicating more work is urgently needed to sustain growth

Probabilistic Approach to Forecasting

  • 1.
    Probabilistic Forecasting Usesthe expected value of a future project to estimate overall revenues based on contracted, proposed, and projected work Tends to correctly estimate overall revenue and identify upcoming gaps In the example shown, revenues drop off significantly in period 7 – indicating more work is urgently needed to sustain growth

Editor's Notes

  • #2 Contact Robert Bellman (702-497-0454) for additional information on applying this technique.