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Natural Gas – a fuel for the future
Jan Rune Schøpp, Vice President – Strategy and Analysis Natural Gas, Statoil
Press brief ONS, Stavanger 25 August 2010
2




Statoil – building growth from a firm strategy

        A firm strategy                                       Growth areas


        Build                              Maximise
        new
       energy
                                           the NCS    Harsh environments
                                            values



                                                      Deep water

                                                      Heavy oil
                Deliver international growth



                                                      Gas value chains
3



   Gas increasingly important in Statoil’s
   production on the Norwegian Continental Shelf

                Ambition to maintain                                                                             New added production
       NCS production level towards 2020 (mmboed)                                                                capacity towards 2018
                                                                                              Tommeliten Alpha




                                                                        Start-up 2014-2018
                                                                                              Astero
                                                                                              Lavrans
1200
                                                                                              Peon
1000                                                                                          Alfa Sentral
                                                                                              Hild
800
                                                                                              Luva
600                                                                                           Valemon
                                                                                              15/5-2
400
                                                                        Start-up 2012-2016    Dagny/Ermintrude

200                                                                                           Marulk (Sanctioned)
                                                                                              Pan Pandora
  0                                                                                           Ormen Lange Compression
  1990       1993       1996       1999       2002        2005   2008
                                                                                              Gudrun (Sanctioned)
             Gas production*                Oil production*                                   Grane C&M
                                                                                              Goliat (Sanctioned)


  * Production: Statoil’s equity production 1990 – 2009                                      Note: Bold indicates operatorship / joint operatorship
4




 A unique European gas position

                                                     Access to an integrated
A leading marketer of gas (bcm)                     and flexible infrastructure                       Proximity to markets



                                                                                                      Pipeline
                                                                                                      LNG
   165
                                                                    Åsgard transport
                                                                    Ormen Lange                         Norway
                                                                                        Nyhamna

                                                                Tampen LinkTroll

                                                                                     Kollsnes                           Russia
                                                                   Vesterled
                                                                                     Kårstø
                                                                     Sleipner Draupner
                71                                  St Fergus
                                                                                      Europipe II
                                                                       Ekofisk
                                                                                   Europipe I
                           55          55
                                                                                   Norpipe
                                                                      Langeled

                                                        Easington                            Emden/
                                                                                Zeepipe      Dornum
                                                                     Franpipe
                                                                             Zeebrugge
                                                                      Dunkerque
                                                                                                            Algeria
 Gazprom     Statoil*   Sonatrach GasTerra




* Statoil entitlement gas and NCS gas marketed on
behalf of SDFI sold in Europe
Source other companies Cedigaz 2008
5



 Majority of Statoil’s gas sold under long-term
 gas sales contracts

                                                                   Strong customer portfolio* –
                 Strong growth in sales (bcm)                       geographically diversified


                                                          87
                                            78

                             61


               39




             2001          2004           2007           2009


 2001 and 2004: Statoil’s and Hydro’s annual reports, incl. SDFI
 2007 - 2009: Statoil and SDFI, including third party volumes



* List not exhaustive
6




Developing new gas value chains

                                                          Shah Deniz –
 Marcellus – US   Algeria – North Africa   NCS – Norway    Azerbaijan
7



 A new supply corridor to Europe with Shah
 Deniz in Azerbaijan

         Shah Deniz – one of Statoil’s                       Shah Deniz phase 2 –
     most important international gas fields    possible new gas corridor to the European market
                                                                                  Nabucco
                                                                                 Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP)
                                                                                 Italy Greece interconnector (IGI)
                                                                                 South Caucasus pipeline (SCP)
                                                                                 Transit pipelines




- Statoil’s ownership share 25.5 per cent       - Potential exports phase 2 exceeding 16 bcm/yr
- 8 bcm/yr gas export from Shah Deniz phase 1   - MoU between Turkey and Azerbaijan represents
- Gas sales to Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan     a major step forward for the Shah Deniz project
8




Gas prices are not low in a historical context

         Main drivers in the gas market (bcm)                                  Gas prices (øre/Sm3)

                                      565
                                      565
                                                    300
                                             531
                                             531

    Gas demand (EU27)
                                     2008
                                      2008   2009
                                             2009
                                                    200
                                             268
                                             268


                                      232
                                      232

    LNG supply capacity                             100
                                      2008
                                     2008    2009
                                             2009                                                                                Market’s
                                                                                                                                expectation
                                             88
                                             268
                                      63
                                                     0
                                      232
                                                          2000
                                                                 2001
                                                                        2002
                                                                               2003
                                                                                      2005
                                                                                             2006
                                                                                                    2007
                                                                                                           2008
                                                                                                                  2010
                                                                                                                         2011
                                                                                                                                 2012
                                                                                                                                        2013
                                                                                                                                                   2015
    US shale gas production
                                      2008
                                     2008    2009
                                             2009
                                                      NBP               HH            German border                      Japan Average

Sources: BMWi, Heren, Platts, CERA
9




Robust long term growth in gas demand

                     US (bcm)                            Europe (bcm)                             Asia (bcm)



 1000                                           1000                            1000


  800                                           800                              800


  600                                           600                              600


  400                                           400                              400


  200                                           200                              200


      0                                           0                                0
      2010                 2020          2030     2010        2020      2030       2010           2020         2030




                                  Domestic supplies          Imports           Upside potential


Source: Statoil internal
Conclude new
                                                                                                                                10
                                                                                                                               sales




Natural gas – a fuel for the future

 Reduce CO2 emissions by 70%                                  Most cost                     Available now when old
compared to old coal-fired plants                           competitive fuel              capacity need to be replaced




                                                                                                         New capacity
                                                  $15/MMbtu
              New coal
                plant                                                                                      0 – 10 yrs
             reductions                           $11/MMbtu
                                                  $10/MMbtu                                               11 – 20 yrs
  Old coal
                             Gas
   plant
                            switch
 emissions                                                                                                 21 – 30 yrs
                          reduction


                                        New                                                                31 – 40 yrs
                                       CCGT
                                      emissions                                                         Older than 40 yrs

                                                                                                            Europe




Source: Deutsche Bank                             Source: IEA world energy outlook 2009      Source: CERA and Platts
11



The shale gas revolution has increased global
gas resources

                                               Global gas resources 2008 (TCM)




           OECD                           Russia / FSU               Middle East              Rest of the world
              210
                                                200                                                   200
                                                                         170




                                        Conventional gas resources     Unconventional gas resources


Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
12




Summary




− Statoil has a unique gas business
− Natural gas is a fuel for the future: low carbon footprint, cost competitive and
  abundant resources
− Statoil has a positive market view going forward
− Window of opportunity to increase the role of gas in the fuel mix for power
  generation

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Pressbrief : Natural Gas

  • 1. Natural Gas – a fuel for the future Jan Rune Schøpp, Vice President – Strategy and Analysis Natural Gas, Statoil Press brief ONS, Stavanger 25 August 2010
  • 2. 2 Statoil – building growth from a firm strategy A firm strategy Growth areas Build Maximise new energy the NCS Harsh environments values Deep water Heavy oil Deliver international growth Gas value chains
  • 3. 3 Gas increasingly important in Statoil’s production on the Norwegian Continental Shelf Ambition to maintain New added production NCS production level towards 2020 (mmboed) capacity towards 2018 Tommeliten Alpha Start-up 2014-2018 Astero Lavrans 1200 Peon 1000 Alfa Sentral Hild 800 Luva 600 Valemon 15/5-2 400 Start-up 2012-2016 Dagny/Ermintrude 200 Marulk (Sanctioned) Pan Pandora 0 Ormen Lange Compression 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Gudrun (Sanctioned) Gas production* Oil production* Grane C&M Goliat (Sanctioned) * Production: Statoil’s equity production 1990 – 2009 Note: Bold indicates operatorship / joint operatorship
  • 4. 4 A unique European gas position Access to an integrated A leading marketer of gas (bcm) and flexible infrastructure Proximity to markets Pipeline LNG 165 Åsgard transport Ormen Lange Norway Nyhamna Tampen LinkTroll Kollsnes Russia Vesterled Kårstø Sleipner Draupner 71 St Fergus Europipe II Ekofisk Europipe I 55 55 Norpipe Langeled Easington Emden/ Zeepipe Dornum Franpipe Zeebrugge Dunkerque Algeria Gazprom Statoil* Sonatrach GasTerra * Statoil entitlement gas and NCS gas marketed on behalf of SDFI sold in Europe Source other companies Cedigaz 2008
  • 5. 5 Majority of Statoil’s gas sold under long-term gas sales contracts Strong customer portfolio* – Strong growth in sales (bcm) geographically diversified 87 78 61 39 2001 2004 2007 2009 2001 and 2004: Statoil’s and Hydro’s annual reports, incl. SDFI 2007 - 2009: Statoil and SDFI, including third party volumes * List not exhaustive
  • 6. 6 Developing new gas value chains Shah Deniz – Marcellus – US Algeria – North Africa NCS – Norway Azerbaijan
  • 7. 7 A new supply corridor to Europe with Shah Deniz in Azerbaijan Shah Deniz – one of Statoil’s Shah Deniz phase 2 – most important international gas fields possible new gas corridor to the European market Nabucco Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) Italy Greece interconnector (IGI) South Caucasus pipeline (SCP) Transit pipelines - Statoil’s ownership share 25.5 per cent - Potential exports phase 2 exceeding 16 bcm/yr - 8 bcm/yr gas export from Shah Deniz phase 1 - MoU between Turkey and Azerbaijan represents - Gas sales to Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan a major step forward for the Shah Deniz project
  • 8. 8 Gas prices are not low in a historical context Main drivers in the gas market (bcm) Gas prices (øre/Sm3) 565 565 300 531 531 Gas demand (EU27) 2008 2008 2009 2009 200 268 268 232 232 LNG supply capacity 100 2008 2008 2009 2009 Market’s expectation 88 268 63 0 232 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 US shale gas production 2008 2008 2009 2009 NBP HH German border Japan Average Sources: BMWi, Heren, Platts, CERA
  • 9. 9 Robust long term growth in gas demand US (bcm) Europe (bcm) Asia (bcm) 1000 1000 1000 800 800 800 600 600 600 400 400 400 200 200 200 0 0 0 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 Domestic supplies Imports Upside potential Source: Statoil internal
  • 10. Conclude new 10 sales Natural gas – a fuel for the future Reduce CO2 emissions by 70% Most cost Available now when old compared to old coal-fired plants competitive fuel capacity need to be replaced New capacity $15/MMbtu New coal plant 0 – 10 yrs reductions $11/MMbtu $10/MMbtu 11 – 20 yrs Old coal Gas plant switch emissions 21 – 30 yrs reduction New 31 – 40 yrs CCGT emissions Older than 40 yrs Europe Source: Deutsche Bank Source: IEA world energy outlook 2009 Source: CERA and Platts
  • 11. 11 The shale gas revolution has increased global gas resources Global gas resources 2008 (TCM) OECD Russia / FSU Middle East Rest of the world 210 200 200 170 Conventional gas resources Unconventional gas resources Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
  • 12. 12 Summary − Statoil has a unique gas business − Natural gas is a fuel for the future: low carbon footprint, cost competitive and abundant resources − Statoil has a positive market view going forward − Window of opportunity to increase the role of gas in the fuel mix for power generation