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State of the State Survey
       Winter 2013
          Charles L. Ballard
 Professor, Department of Economics
  Director, State of the State Survey

Institute for Public Policy and Social Research
                ballard@msu.edu
                  517.353.2961
State of the State Survey
       Winter 2013
 Ratings for Obama Improve;
Snyder Stays About the Same;
 Consumer Confidence Mixed
About SOSS Round 64

  1,013 Interviews Completed

January 14, 2013 – March 4, 2013
President Obama’s
  positive ratings
 improved to their
highest level since
   Summer 2009.
Michigan Residents' Ratings of President Obama's
                          Performance, Winter 2013


          35                       31.2
                                                                  29.6
          30
                                                 22.0
          25
                     17.2
          20
Percent




          15

          10

          5

          0
                Excellent       Good           Fair          Poor
Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating President Obama's
                    Performance as "Excellent" or "Good", 2009-2013
          80
                70.7
          70
                       62.6
          60                  53.2
          50                                                            44.5
                                                                                                   48.4
                                     44.2          43.9          44.5                           42.8
Percent




                                                                               40.4 40.6 41.0
          40                                36.9
                                                          32.7
          30

          20

          10

           0
Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating
                                           U.S. President's Performance as
                                          "Excellent" or "Good", 1995-2013
          80

          70                                  66.9

          60                           55.1                                         57.7
          50
                         56.0
                                53.0                                                                      48.4   Clinton
                      49.5                           47.4                              43.1           42.8
                                          40.8           42.3
Percent




          40   44.3
                                                                                              40.6 41.0          Bush
                                                            32.4                    36.9
          30
                                                                   27.5
                                                                      20.5                                       Obama
          20
                                                                             17.3
          10

          0
Governor Snyder’s approval
  ratings were basically
       unchanged.
Michigan Residents' Ratings of Governor Snyder's
                         Performance, Winter 2013

                                                   33.1           33.0
          35

                                   27.4
          30

          25

          20
Percent




          15

          10           6.6

          5

          0
                 Excellent      Good            Fair          Poor
Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating Performance of
                   Governors as "Excellent" or "Good", 1995-2013
          60
               55.0                               57.2
                               52.5
                      50.6
                                      49.5
          50                                             48.7

                        46.7
          40                          43.7 43.6
                                                          35.3                                36.8 35.5
                                                                                                           Engler
                                                                 34.4
Percent




          30                                                                   31.0
                                                                                      31.8
                                                                                             33.0   34.0
                                                                   25.3                                    Granholm

          20                                                            23.0
                                                                                                           Snyder
                                                                               20.7

          10


          0




                                                            Year
Consumer confidence:

Some indicators improve;
     others don’t.

In every case, we remain
  well below 1999, and
    well above 2009.
Assessments of the
 current financial
 situation improved
 from Fall 2012 to
 Winter 2013.
Michigan Residents' Assessments of Their Current
                        Financial Situation, Winter 2013
          50
                             46.3
          45

          40

          35
                                         28.7
          30
Percent




          25

          20

          15
                                                      10.6
          10                                                      8.1
                 6.3
          5

          0
               Excellent    Good       Just Fair   Not So Good    Poor
Percent of Michigan Residents Who Rate Their Current
                 Financial Situation As "Excellent" or "Good", 1995-2013
          70

                          64.1 63.9 62.9
          65
               60.9                        62.2
          60
                 60.2   61.4
                                                  56.4
                                                                                       54.1 54.4
          55
                                                                                                    52.6
                                           54.0     54.9          50.8
Percent




          50
                                                                           47.3 47.3
                                                           49.3                              47.8
          45
                                                                   43.4   44.0
          40

          35

          30
Michigan residents’
 assessment of whether they
 are better off or worse off
 than one year before were
 less favorable in Winter
 2013 than in Fall 2012.
Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Are
               Better Off Than One Year Ago, Winter 2013
          40
                                                        37.5
                     34.9
          35

          30
                                      27.6
          25
Percent




          20

          15

          10

           5

           0
                  Better Off     About the Same      Worse Off
Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Are Better
                Off or Worse Off Than One Year Ago, 1995-2013
          70
                                                                     62.6
                                61.6
                                                            59.6
          60
               52.6 53.2
                             55.8                                           50.6
          50                               48.4
                  50.2                               44.5
                                                              44.6                             41.7
                                             40.2                           45.1
          40                                                                               38.5                Better Off
                                                                                                        37.5
Percent




                                                       35.4                    35.7
                                              31.8         31.7                           34.2          34.9
          30                                                 27.4                                32.6          Worse Off
                                           24.2                                    26.2
               18.5                                            19.8
          20          18.1                                                  23.0

                  17.7
                                    15.2                             14.4
          10             14.3


          0
Michigan residents’ assessment of
 whether they will be better off
 one year from now were also less
 favorable in Winter 2013 than in
 Fall 2012.

However, those who think they will
 be better off still outnumbered
 those who think they will be
 worse off by about 2 to 1.
Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Will
                  Be Better Off One Year From Now, Winter 2013

          60
                      55.2

          50


          40
Percent




          30                                               28.7


          20
                                        16.1

          10


           0
                   Better Off      About the Same       Worse Off
Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They
               Will Be Better Off One Year From Now, 1995-2013
          80
                                     70.5
          70          65.9                         66.2
                              66.6                                                                      61.0              61.0
               57.2                                       59.8 60.1
          60
                      58.6                                                                    54.0
                                        60.0                             51.4
          50                                                                   45.1
                                                                                       48.6
                                                                                    46.4                                   55.2
                                                                50.5                                               48.7
Percent




                                                                                                     48.4
          40                                                                 35.5
                                                                                                                                  Better Off
                                                                                    34.7
                                                                                           33.1
                                                                                                    30.4           29.8
          30                                                                                   28.5                        28.7
                                                                             29.2                                                 Worse Off
                                            19.9      19.1            26.1
          20                                                                                                20.5
                  12.3                                         20.1                                                       19.3

          10                                       14.7
               13.1    11.9
                              9.5 10.7

          0
Attitudes by
Race and Gender
Views of Michigan Residents
     by Race and Sex

                       State of
                                  Women   Men     Whites   Blacks
                       Michigan
Obama
                        48.4%     50.5%   46.2%   42.0%    79.1%
“Excellent” or Good”
Snyder
                        34.0%     32.8%   35.3%   35.2%    23.7%
“Excellent” or Good”
Attitudes by Political Party
Views of Michigan
             Residents
         by Political Party
                       State of
                                  Republican   Independent   Democrat
                       Michigan

Obama
                        48.4%       14.3%        38.0%        85.5%
“Excellent” or Good”

Snyder
                        34.0%      56.9%         36.7%        19.8%
“Excellent” or Good”
Regional Attitudes
Views of Residents from
          Different Regions in Michigan
                                                     Wayne,
                           State of       City of                  SEMCOG      Grand Rapids
                                                     Oakland,
                           Michigan       Detroit                   Regiona       Areab
                                                     Macomb
Obama
                             48.4%        69.3%       55.3%         54.1%           41.4%
“Excellent” or Good”

Snyder
                             34.0%        30.5%       31.5%         33.3%           43.1%
“Excellent” or Good”



a   Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties

b   Allegan, Barry, Ionia, Kent, Montcalm, Muskegon, Newaygo, and Ottawa Counties

c Clinton,   Eaton, and Ingham Counties
How to Learn More about SOSS:

http://ippsr.msu.edu/SOSS/

Charles Ballard:   ballard@msu.edu
                   517.353.2961

Cynthia Kyle:      kylec@msu.edu
                   517.353.1731

Graham Pierce:     glpierce@msu.edu
                   517.884.0364
THANK YOU!

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President post-election bounce. Governor unchanged. Consum…

  • 1. State of the State Survey Winter 2013 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for Public Policy and Social Research ballard@msu.edu 517.353.2961
  • 2. State of the State Survey Winter 2013 Ratings for Obama Improve; Snyder Stays About the Same; Consumer Confidence Mixed
  • 3. About SOSS Round 64 1,013 Interviews Completed January 14, 2013 – March 4, 2013
  • 4. President Obama’s positive ratings improved to their highest level since Summer 2009.
  • 5. Michigan Residents' Ratings of President Obama's Performance, Winter 2013 35 31.2 29.6 30 22.0 25 17.2 20 Percent 15 10 5 0 Excellent Good Fair Poor
  • 6. Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating President Obama's Performance as "Excellent" or "Good", 2009-2013 80 70.7 70 62.6 60 53.2 50 44.5 48.4 44.2 43.9 44.5 42.8 Percent 40.4 40.6 41.0 40 36.9 32.7 30 20 10 0
  • 7. Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating U.S. President's Performance as "Excellent" or "Good", 1995-2013 80 70 66.9 60 55.1 57.7 50 56.0 53.0 48.4 Clinton 49.5 47.4 43.1 42.8 40.8 42.3 Percent 40 44.3 40.6 41.0 Bush 32.4 36.9 30 27.5 20.5 Obama 20 17.3 10 0
  • 8. Governor Snyder’s approval ratings were basically unchanged.
  • 9. Michigan Residents' Ratings of Governor Snyder's Performance, Winter 2013 33.1 33.0 35 27.4 30 25 20 Percent 15 10 6.6 5 0 Excellent Good Fair Poor
  • 10. Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating Performance of Governors as "Excellent" or "Good", 1995-2013 60 55.0 57.2 52.5 50.6 49.5 50 48.7 46.7 40 43.7 43.6 35.3 36.8 35.5 Engler 34.4 Percent 30 31.0 31.8 33.0 34.0 25.3 Granholm 20 23.0 Snyder 20.7 10 0 Year
  • 11. Consumer confidence: Some indicators improve; others don’t. In every case, we remain well below 1999, and well above 2009.
  • 12. Assessments of the current financial situation improved from Fall 2012 to Winter 2013.
  • 13. Michigan Residents' Assessments of Their Current Financial Situation, Winter 2013 50 46.3 45 40 35 28.7 30 Percent 25 20 15 10.6 10 8.1 6.3 5 0 Excellent Good Just Fair Not So Good Poor
  • 14. Percent of Michigan Residents Who Rate Their Current Financial Situation As "Excellent" or "Good", 1995-2013 70 64.1 63.9 62.9 65 60.9 62.2 60 60.2 61.4 56.4 54.1 54.4 55 52.6 54.0 54.9 50.8 Percent 50 47.3 47.3 49.3 47.8 45 43.4 44.0 40 35 30
  • 15. Michigan residents’ assessment of whether they are better off or worse off than one year before were less favorable in Winter 2013 than in Fall 2012.
  • 16. Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Are Better Off Than One Year Ago, Winter 2013 40 37.5 34.9 35 30 27.6 25 Percent 20 15 10 5 0 Better Off About the Same Worse Off
  • 17. Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Are Better Off or Worse Off Than One Year Ago, 1995-2013 70 62.6 61.6 59.6 60 52.6 53.2 55.8 50.6 50 48.4 50.2 44.5 44.6 41.7 40.2 45.1 40 38.5 Better Off 37.5 Percent 35.4 35.7 31.8 31.7 34.2 34.9 30 27.4 32.6 Worse Off 24.2 26.2 18.5 19.8 20 18.1 23.0 17.7 15.2 14.4 10 14.3 0
  • 18. Michigan residents’ assessment of whether they will be better off one year from now were also less favorable in Winter 2013 than in Fall 2012. However, those who think they will be better off still outnumbered those who think they will be worse off by about 2 to 1.
  • 19. Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Will Be Better Off One Year From Now, Winter 2013 60 55.2 50 40 Percent 30 28.7 20 16.1 10 0 Better Off About the Same Worse Off
  • 20. Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Will Be Better Off One Year From Now, 1995-2013 80 70.5 70 65.9 66.2 66.6 61.0 61.0 57.2 59.8 60.1 60 58.6 54.0 60.0 51.4 50 45.1 48.6 46.4 55.2 50.5 48.7 Percent 48.4 40 35.5 Better Off 34.7 33.1 30.4 29.8 30 28.5 28.7 29.2 Worse Off 19.9 19.1 26.1 20 20.5 12.3 20.1 19.3 10 14.7 13.1 11.9 9.5 10.7 0
  • 22. Views of Michigan Residents by Race and Sex State of Women Men Whites Blacks Michigan Obama 48.4% 50.5% 46.2% 42.0% 79.1% “Excellent” or Good” Snyder 34.0% 32.8% 35.3% 35.2% 23.7% “Excellent” or Good”
  • 24. Views of Michigan Residents by Political Party State of Republican Independent Democrat Michigan Obama 48.4% 14.3% 38.0% 85.5% “Excellent” or Good” Snyder 34.0% 56.9% 36.7% 19.8% “Excellent” or Good”
  • 26. Views of Residents from Different Regions in Michigan Wayne, State of City of SEMCOG Grand Rapids Oakland, Michigan Detroit Regiona Areab Macomb Obama 48.4% 69.3% 55.3% 54.1% 41.4% “Excellent” or Good” Snyder 34.0% 30.5% 31.5% 33.3% 43.1% “Excellent” or Good” a Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties b Allegan, Barry, Ionia, Kent, Montcalm, Muskegon, Newaygo, and Ottawa Counties c Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties
  • 27. How to Learn More about SOSS: http://ippsr.msu.edu/SOSS/ Charles Ballard: ballard@msu.edu 517.353.2961 Cynthia Kyle: kylec@msu.edu 517.353.1731 Graham Pierce: glpierce@msu.edu 517.884.0364