SAGE44 was a combined black box trading system that began trading in 2009 with an initial $10,000 deposit. [1] It demonstrated 100% annual returns in 2010 and 2011, bringing equity to over $30,000. [2] Performance declined in the first half of 2012. [3] Several new combined black boxes were then designed and tested, with some showing strong profits over the subsequent 8 months. [4] Combined black box building and tuning appears to be an effective strategy for adapting to changing market conditions.

1. Predictive Automated Margin Trading Technology, PAMTT Part 3
Operational Report
2009, July. The new, experimental Combined Black Box SAGE251 of 251 single BB in EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY,
and USDCHF started.
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2009, December, 1 . CBB SAGE44 was combined in 2009, November of single BBs of SAGE251 after 5 month
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trading on the account. SAGE44 run on the FXCM account at December, 1 . The sum of initial deposit was
$10 000. There wasn’t any change in the SAGE44 module since that time till now. The target was at that time and
is now among other to check vitality of the PAMTT system.
Diagram 1 SAGE44, Performance in 2010, 2011..
We can see in the Diagram above that SAGE44 demonstrated 100% approx return on the investment each year
in 2010, 2011. The Equity reached greater than $30 000, PL was $20 000 approx.

2. Diagram 2 SAGE44 Performance for 30 months
The next six months (2012, January – 2012, June, Diagramm 2) performance indeces went down and cumulative
PL increased on $2 000 approx only and oscillated around 24-25K. It was a moment to undertake some tuning
action to support attained performance. Several CBB were buit using CBB Builder (CBBB) at June, 22nd. The
rezults described below.
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Diagram 3 December, 1 , 2009 – March, 12th, 2013, 854 trade days, 3 years, 39 months
SAGE 44
Gross PL/trade =6.8 pips Net PL/trade=3.8 pips Number of trades=6 515 Cumulative Net PL=24 757 pips
PF=1.42 Year ROI=76% after 39 trade months

3. SAGE44 demonstrates breaking-even and profitless trading in general the next 10 months since 2012, July till now
(Diagram 3).
How to examine this rezult? From the point of view of the account owner since 2009, December who converts
$10 000 into $30 000 it is exellent. Account owner in 2012, July - 2013, March has another feelings, but he lost just
time not money. It would be interesting to compare SAGE44 indices with the indices of traders who traded in the
same time span in EURUSD and GBPUSD with the same inensivity (7-9 open/close acts per 1 trade day, 6515 trades
total).
The objective unemotional SAGE44 performance estimation:
At the SAGE44 design time the probability of any traded without loss quoter time span was estimated as p=0.85.
it is easy to see looking at PL curve for 39 months, 13 quoters that there are 2, maximum 3 loss quoters within
considerated period. The fact is p=(1-3/13)=0.77. This rough estimation is enough good as a correlation between
theoretical and empirical indices. The location of 2 loss quoter within last 10 months causes some worry. The first
quoter of 2013 gives a hope to see effective trading again.
It is appropriate mention here that considered time span universally recognized as World Crisis period what
characterized by active interventions of Central Banks in the markets. The fact of existance EUR discussed lot of
times enough seriously. SAGE44 endures Q1, Q2 but Q3 started in 2012, Sep made PL cuve horisontal for several
months.
We suppose that previous estimations of future SAGE44 performance what were published in
http://www.slideshare.net/yurimartemianov/sage-test-accountcomments07152011-8621145 and others are
fitting. These indices estimated using rate data since 2003. There is no reason to talk about super drastic changes
in the markets in terms of SAGE44 predictive ability looking at the design matherials and current performance. The
local (in the 10 year scale) indices decrease has a place. The performance will increase most likely when “forecast
basic” reflect some enough stable kinds of internal regularities.
Besides that, estimation of SAGE vitality represents some academic interest and will be continued.
It is reasonable to consider more productive CBBs of 44 single BB included in SAGE44. It was done at the end of
June, 2012 when some signs of performance decrease appeared. Several CBB more productive and stable
admittedly were designed and archived by means of CBB Builder and manually.
The imitation dummy T&G SAGE44 CBB Tuner was prepared and distributed at that time. Above mentioned CBBs
were included there. There is ability now after near 200 days to estimate it’s performance.
CBB archiver names automatically CBB saving it as BNN_YYYY.MM.DD. BNN_YYYY.MM.DD is design date.
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Diagramm 4 shows the part of saved CBB at 2012, June. 22 . The column NN contains number of single BB
included in CBB. Two protocols were storied for every designed CBB with various lengths - 668 trade days since
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2009, December, 1 and 2250, 9 years approx.
Diagram 4

4. The considered time span length between.2009.12.01 and 2012.22.06 is 668 trade days. The calculation below
dated 2013.03.22 in 862 trade days after 2009.12.01. Post design check time span is 862-668=194 trade days.
Performance of CBBs archived at 2012.06.22 and matched at 2013.03.22
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June, 22 , 2012 – March, 22th, 2013, 194, trade days, 3 years, 8 months
B00_2012.6.22 EURUSD
Gross PL/trade =15.7 pips Net PL/trade=12.7 pips Number of trades=21 Cumulative Net PL=267 pips PF=2..7
B06_2012.6.22 EURUSD
Gross PL/trade =9.6 pips Net PL/trade=6.6 pips Number of trades=592 Cumulative Net PL=3 907 pips PF=1.53

5. B08_2012.6.22 EURUSD
Gross PL/trade =13.0 pips Net PL/trade=10.0 pips Number of trades=476 Cumulative Net PL=4760 pips PF=1.72
B10_2012.6.22 EURUSD
PL/trade =34.2 pips Net PL/trade=31.2 pips Number of trades=35 Cumulative Net PL=1092 pips PF=3.24
B12_2012.6.22 EURUSD
PL/trade =47.3 pips Net PL/trade=44.3 pips Number of trades=39 Cumulative Net PL=1728 pips PF=2.65

6. B14_2012.6.22 EURUSD
PL/trade =14.1 pips Net PL/trade=11.1 pips Number of trades=37 Cumulative Net PL=411 pips PF=1.54
B16_2012.6.22 EURUSD
PL/trade =-1.4 pips Net PL/trade=-4.4 pips Number of trades=21 Cumulative Net PL=-92 pips PF=0.93
B18_2012.6.22 EURUSD

7. PL/trade =30.7 pips Net PL/trade=27.7 pips Number of trades=218 Cumulative Net PL=6039 pips PF=2.85
B20_2012.6.22 GBPUSD
PL/trade =5.6 pips Net PL/trade=2.6 pips Number of trades=42 Cumulative Net PL=109 pips PF=1.17
Total for 8 months:
B00_2012.6.22 EURUSD Net PL= $267 PF=2..7 1 BB
B06_2012.6.22 EURUSD Net PL=$3 907 PF=1.53 17 BB
B08_2012.6.22 EURUSD Net PL=$4760 PF=1.72 14 BB
B10_2012.6.22 EURUSD Net PL=$1092 PF=3.24 1 BB
B12_2012.6.22 EURUSD Net PL=$1728 PF=2.65 1 BB
B14_2012.6.22 EURUSD Net PL= $411 PF=1.54 1 BB
B16_2012.6.22 EURUSD Net PL= -$92 PF=0.93 1BB
B18_2012.6.22 EURUSD Net PL=$6039 PF=2.85 7 BB
B20_2012.6.22 GBPUSD Net PL= $109 PF=1.17 2 BB
It is obvious that Combined Black Box Builder (CBBB) is enough effective tool for CBB design and CBB tuning is the
productive method in the unstabe market situation.
In Part 4: About PAMTT business application.