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(PRAA)
October 2011 Update
Key Stats
                  2008 2009         2010    2011E      2012
Revenue           263m 281m         373m    472m       574m
                                                                      Current Price:                      $66.66
Y/Y %Chg           19%  7%           33%     27%        22%
Amortization                                                          Market Cap:                        $1.16BN
   Rate      36.8% 41.4%            41.5%   40.9%     40.9%
Oper. Mar. 32.2% 28.7%              34.8%   39.1%     41.4%           6M Price Target:                    $85.00
Net Income 45m 44m                   74m    105m      139m            (14x FY2011 EPS)
 Y/Y %Chg   -6%   -2%                67%     42%       33%
    EPS    $2.96 $2.87              $4.34   $6.03     $7.96           Upside                              27.5%
  Debt
Purchases        279m 289m          362m    390m      371m                          $2.83/Share through Q2
   Figure 1: Stock Price & Volume                             Figure 2: Market Profile
     $100.00                                        2.5mm   Current Price                      $66.66
      $95.00                                                Shares Outstanding (mm)              17.2
      $90.00                                        2.0mm   Market Capitalization (mm)       $1,162.1
      $85.00                                                Beta                                 1.45
      $80.00                                        1.5mm   52 Week Price Range          56.76 - 90.95
      $75.00                                                Avg. Volume - 3 mo (mm)             0.14
      $70.00                                        1.0mm   Float                             16.75M
      $65.00
                                                            Institutional Holding           108.20%
      $60.00                                        0.5mm
                                                            Insider Holding                    2.60%
      $55.00
                                                            Short Interest                     18.8%
      $50.00                                        0.0mm
                                                            Tangible Book Value/Share          $27.15
               Apr-11
               Apr-10
               Feb-10




               Sep-10




               Feb-11
                Jun-10
                 Jul-10
               Mar-10




               Mar-11
               Dec-10
               Oct-10
               Oct-10
               Aug-10
                Jan-10




                Jan-11
               Nov-10
               May-10




                                                            Return on Equity                  17.58%
                                                            P/E (diluted)                      13.03x
   Source: Yahoo Finance                                    Source: Yahoo Finance
Relative Performance
Stock Performance - LT
 $100.00
     23.92
     24.56
  $90.00
     24.37
     25.71
  $80.00
     26.67
     28.88
  $70.00
     30.88
     29.21
  $60.00
     28.78
     27.45
  $50.00
     24.06
     23.82
  $40.00

  $30.00

  $20.00

  $10.00

     $-
   1mm
   1mm
   1mm
    mm
    mm
    mm
Non-Farm Payrolls (m/m % chg)




   (USMMMNCH)
Personal Income (Y/Y)




      (PITLYOY) Growing at a healthy clip again
Total Consumer Credit Outstanding




         (CCOSTOT) Positive trend for debt buyers
Household Debt Growth




     (DEGRHHLD) Good for near term payment, but a
     concern for longer term growth. I have thus revised
     my growth estimates down over the long-term.
Company Summary
Business Lines
• Core Business (87%)                                                  • Collections
   – Non-Bankruptcy                                                        –   Call Center (37%)
   – Bankruptcy                                                            –   Purchased Bankruptcy (39%)
• Non-Core Business (13%)                                                  –   Internal Legal (9%)
   – Collateral Location                                                   –   External Legal (15%)
   – Government Service
   – Class Action Claims Recovery

    250,000
                                                       Collections Mix

    200,000


    150,000


    100,000


     50,000


         0



              Call Center Collections   Purchased Bankruptcy Collections   Internal Legal Collections   External Legal Collections
Debt Purchases
                    Total Debt Purchases
   $450,000

   $400,000

   $350,000

   $300,000

   $250,000

   $200,000

   $150,000

   $100,000

    $50,000

        $0




              Non Bankruptcy Purchases   Bankruptcy Purchases
Cash Collections
  $500,000
             Non-Bankruptcy Collections vs. Purchases
  $450,000
  $400,000
  $350,000
  $300,000
  $250,000
  $200,000
  $150,000
  $100,000
   $50,000
        $0


                 Non-Bankruptcy Collections    Non Bankruptcy Purchases


  $300,000
              Bankruptcy Collections vs. Purchases
  $250,000

  $200,000

  $150,000

  $100,000

   $50,000

       $0


                     Bankruptcy Collections   Bankruptcy Purchases
Differentiated From Competitors

  •   Integrated Business – collect own accounts
       – Better control over entire process, compliance
       – Capture profits that would otherwise go to outsource provider
       – Better integration of collection results & underwriting models
       – Growing in-house Legal Collections Department
  •   Low Cost Operations, Conservative Balance Sheet
       – Actively seek out low cost labor and real estate markets
       – Very disciplined purchase of debt and use of line of credit
       – Pricing confidence from 14 tears and over 1,850 pools of data
       – Track record of conservative pricing bias
  •   Accounts are not re-sold
       – Many competitors try to quickly squeeze some value out of accounts before
          re-selling them. PRAA works accounts over a MUCH longer time span.
Call Centers
  •   US Locations
       – Hutchinson, Kansas (Premier Location)
       – Jackson, Tennessee (91%)
       – Norfolk, Virginia (88%)
       – Hampton, Virginia (87%)
       – Birmingham, Alabama (81%)
  •   International Locations
       – Philippines (47%)
       – Panama City (Newly Opened)
  •   Productivity up at ALL centers
  •   Continued Investment in Operational Efficiency & Automation
       – Made 38% more calls in Q4 2010 vs. 2009
       – Able to profitably work accounts with lower balances and lower scores
       – Accounts are re-scored EVERY night
Key Stats
Historical P/E
Valuation
                2010E         2011E         2012E        2011 Upside 2012 Upside
                $4.34         $6.03         $7.96
     P/E        15.4          11.1           8.4
      20    $     86.82   $    120.61   $       159.17     80.9%       138.8%
     19.5   $     84.65   $    117.60   $       155.19     76.4%       132.8%
      19    $     82.48   $    114.58   $       151.21     71.9%       126.8%
     18.5   $     80.31   $    111.57   $       147.23     67.4%       120.9%
      18    $     78.14   $    108.55   $       143.25     62.8%       114.9%
     17.5   $     75.97   $    105.54   $       139.28     58.3%       108.9%
      17    $     73.80   $    102.52   $       135.30     53.8%       103.0%
     16.5   $     71.63   $     99.50   $       131.32     49.3%       97.0%
      16    $     69.46   $     96.49   $       127.34     44.7%       91.0%
     15.5   $     67.29   $     93.47   $       123.36     40.2%       85.1%
      15    $     65.12   $     90.46   $       119.38     35.7%       79.1%
     14.5   $     62.94   $     87.44   $       115.40     31.2%       73.1%
      14    $     60.77   $     84.43   $       111.42     26.7%       67.1%
     13.5   $     58.60   $     81.41   $       107.44     22.1%       61.2%
      13    $     56.43   $     78.40   $       103.46     17.6%       55.2%
     12.5   $     54.26   $     75.38   $        99.48     13.1%       49.2%
      12    $     52.09   $     72.37   $        95.50      8.6%       43.3%
     11.5   $     49.92   $     69.35   $        91.52      4.0%       37.3%
      11    $     47.75   $     66.34   $        87.54     -0.5%       31.3%
Valuation
                           FY 2011          FY 2012              FY 2013               FY 2014         FY 2015        Terminal Value
EBIT                   $       184,569 $       237,838     $            273,514    $       300,865 $       315,909

Less Taxes                      (68,798)        (88,214)               (105,987)          (116,585)       (122,415)

Plus Depr.                      301,707         368,448                 375,817            368,300         360,934

Less CapEx                    (390,179)       (370,670)                (363,257)          (355,992)       (348,872)
Less Change in WC

Free Cash Flow                   27,299         147,402                 180,087            196,589         205,556


NPV                    $         24,598 $      119,678     $            131,749    $       129,592 $       122,098 $     1,575,948


                                                           DCF                     $      2,103,663

Terminal Growth Rate             3.00%                     Less Debt                      (463,153)

WACC                            10.98%                     Plus Cash                        25,481

Risk Free Rate                   2.15%                     Equity Value            $      1,665,991

Risk Premium                     9.01%                     Diluted Shares                   17,225

Beta                                 1.16                  Price/Share             $          96.72
                                                           Upside to Current                 45.09%
Risk Factors
  •   Double Dip Recession
        – Looking less likely all the time, but important to monitor
  •   Massive influx of competitors / Material Rise in Debt Pricing
        – Company has shown strong discipline in the past by reducing purchasing when
          prices rise beyond acceptable levels, but this would impact revenues over the
          next few years
  •   Long Term Reduction in Consumer Debt Levels
       • My greatest concern over the next 5 years. Should not impact company over
          the next 2 years, but this will likely hurt long-run profitability.
  •   Major Changes to US Debt Collection and/or Bankruptcy Law
        – Unlikely to occur near term given current political environment. PRAA has
          also always been a leader within the industry in terms of regulatory
          compliance
  •   Major Changes to Credit Facility
        – Just expanded credit facility from $365mm to $407.5mm in Q4 @ LIBOR +275,
          maturing in December 2014. Currently using $300mm.

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Portfolio Recover Assoc (PRAA) Pitch (Oct 2011)

  • 2. Key Stats 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012 Revenue 263m 281m 373m 472m 574m Current Price: $66.66 Y/Y %Chg 19% 7% 33% 27% 22% Amortization Market Cap: $1.16BN Rate 36.8% 41.4% 41.5% 40.9% 40.9% Oper. Mar. 32.2% 28.7% 34.8% 39.1% 41.4% 6M Price Target: $85.00 Net Income 45m 44m 74m 105m 139m (14x FY2011 EPS) Y/Y %Chg -6% -2% 67% 42% 33% EPS $2.96 $2.87 $4.34 $6.03 $7.96 Upside 27.5% Debt Purchases 279m 289m 362m 390m 371m $2.83/Share through Q2 Figure 1: Stock Price & Volume Figure 2: Market Profile $100.00 2.5mm Current Price $66.66 $95.00 Shares Outstanding (mm) 17.2 $90.00 2.0mm Market Capitalization (mm) $1,162.1 $85.00 Beta 1.45 $80.00 1.5mm 52 Week Price Range 56.76 - 90.95 $75.00 Avg. Volume - 3 mo (mm) 0.14 $70.00 1.0mm Float 16.75M $65.00 Institutional Holding 108.20% $60.00 0.5mm Insider Holding 2.60% $55.00 Short Interest 18.8% $50.00 0.0mm Tangible Book Value/Share $27.15 Apr-11 Apr-10 Feb-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jun-10 Jul-10 Mar-10 Mar-11 Dec-10 Oct-10 Oct-10 Aug-10 Jan-10 Jan-11 Nov-10 May-10 Return on Equity 17.58% P/E (diluted) 13.03x Source: Yahoo Finance Source: Yahoo Finance
  • 4. Stock Performance - LT $100.00 23.92 24.56 $90.00 24.37 25.71 $80.00 26.67 28.88 $70.00 30.88 29.21 $60.00 28.78 27.45 $50.00 24.06 23.82 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $- 1mm 1mm 1mm mm mm mm
  • 5. Non-Farm Payrolls (m/m % chg) (USMMMNCH)
  • 6. Personal Income (Y/Y) (PITLYOY) Growing at a healthy clip again
  • 7. Total Consumer Credit Outstanding (CCOSTOT) Positive trend for debt buyers
  • 8. Household Debt Growth (DEGRHHLD) Good for near term payment, but a concern for longer term growth. I have thus revised my growth estimates down over the long-term.
  • 10. Business Lines • Core Business (87%) • Collections – Non-Bankruptcy – Call Center (37%) – Bankruptcy – Purchased Bankruptcy (39%) • Non-Core Business (13%) – Internal Legal (9%) – Collateral Location – External Legal (15%) – Government Service – Class Action Claims Recovery 250,000 Collections Mix 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Call Center Collections Purchased Bankruptcy Collections Internal Legal Collections External Legal Collections
  • 11. Debt Purchases Total Debt Purchases $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Non Bankruptcy Purchases Bankruptcy Purchases
  • 12. Cash Collections $500,000 Non-Bankruptcy Collections vs. Purchases $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Non-Bankruptcy Collections Non Bankruptcy Purchases $300,000 Bankruptcy Collections vs. Purchases $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Bankruptcy Collections Bankruptcy Purchases
  • 13. Differentiated From Competitors • Integrated Business – collect own accounts – Better control over entire process, compliance – Capture profits that would otherwise go to outsource provider – Better integration of collection results & underwriting models – Growing in-house Legal Collections Department • Low Cost Operations, Conservative Balance Sheet – Actively seek out low cost labor and real estate markets – Very disciplined purchase of debt and use of line of credit – Pricing confidence from 14 tears and over 1,850 pools of data – Track record of conservative pricing bias • Accounts are not re-sold – Many competitors try to quickly squeeze some value out of accounts before re-selling them. PRAA works accounts over a MUCH longer time span.
  • 14. Call Centers • US Locations – Hutchinson, Kansas (Premier Location) – Jackson, Tennessee (91%) – Norfolk, Virginia (88%) – Hampton, Virginia (87%) – Birmingham, Alabama (81%) • International Locations – Philippines (47%) – Panama City (Newly Opened) • Productivity up at ALL centers • Continued Investment in Operational Efficiency & Automation – Made 38% more calls in Q4 2010 vs. 2009 – Able to profitably work accounts with lower balances and lower scores – Accounts are re-scored EVERY night
  • 17. Valuation 2010E 2011E 2012E 2011 Upside 2012 Upside $4.34 $6.03 $7.96 P/E 15.4 11.1 8.4 20 $ 86.82 $ 120.61 $ 159.17 80.9% 138.8% 19.5 $ 84.65 $ 117.60 $ 155.19 76.4% 132.8% 19 $ 82.48 $ 114.58 $ 151.21 71.9% 126.8% 18.5 $ 80.31 $ 111.57 $ 147.23 67.4% 120.9% 18 $ 78.14 $ 108.55 $ 143.25 62.8% 114.9% 17.5 $ 75.97 $ 105.54 $ 139.28 58.3% 108.9% 17 $ 73.80 $ 102.52 $ 135.30 53.8% 103.0% 16.5 $ 71.63 $ 99.50 $ 131.32 49.3% 97.0% 16 $ 69.46 $ 96.49 $ 127.34 44.7% 91.0% 15.5 $ 67.29 $ 93.47 $ 123.36 40.2% 85.1% 15 $ 65.12 $ 90.46 $ 119.38 35.7% 79.1% 14.5 $ 62.94 $ 87.44 $ 115.40 31.2% 73.1% 14 $ 60.77 $ 84.43 $ 111.42 26.7% 67.1% 13.5 $ 58.60 $ 81.41 $ 107.44 22.1% 61.2% 13 $ 56.43 $ 78.40 $ 103.46 17.6% 55.2% 12.5 $ 54.26 $ 75.38 $ 99.48 13.1% 49.2% 12 $ 52.09 $ 72.37 $ 95.50 8.6% 43.3% 11.5 $ 49.92 $ 69.35 $ 91.52 4.0% 37.3% 11 $ 47.75 $ 66.34 $ 87.54 -0.5% 31.3%
  • 18. Valuation FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Terminal Value EBIT $ 184,569 $ 237,838 $ 273,514 $ 300,865 $ 315,909 Less Taxes (68,798) (88,214) (105,987) (116,585) (122,415) Plus Depr. 301,707 368,448 375,817 368,300 360,934 Less CapEx (390,179) (370,670) (363,257) (355,992) (348,872) Less Change in WC Free Cash Flow 27,299 147,402 180,087 196,589 205,556 NPV $ 24,598 $ 119,678 $ 131,749 $ 129,592 $ 122,098 $ 1,575,948 DCF $ 2,103,663 Terminal Growth Rate 3.00% Less Debt (463,153) WACC 10.98% Plus Cash 25,481 Risk Free Rate 2.15% Equity Value $ 1,665,991 Risk Premium 9.01% Diluted Shares 17,225 Beta 1.16 Price/Share $ 96.72 Upside to Current 45.09%
  • 19. Risk Factors • Double Dip Recession – Looking less likely all the time, but important to monitor • Massive influx of competitors / Material Rise in Debt Pricing – Company has shown strong discipline in the past by reducing purchasing when prices rise beyond acceptable levels, but this would impact revenues over the next few years • Long Term Reduction in Consumer Debt Levels • My greatest concern over the next 5 years. Should not impact company over the next 2 years, but this will likely hurt long-run profitability. • Major Changes to US Debt Collection and/or Bankruptcy Law – Unlikely to occur near term given current political environment. PRAA has also always been a leader within the industry in terms of regulatory compliance • Major Changes to Credit Facility – Just expanded credit facility from $365mm to $407.5mm in Q4 @ LIBOR +275, maturing in December 2014. Currently using $300mm.