8. Household Debt Growth
(DEGRHHLD) Good for near term payment, but a
concern for longer term growth. I have thus revised
my growth estimates down over the long-term.
13. Differentiated From Competitors
• Integrated Business – collect own accounts
– Better control over entire process, compliance
– Capture profits that would otherwise go to outsource provider
– Better integration of collection results & underwriting models
– Growing in-house Legal Collections Department
• Low Cost Operations, Conservative Balance Sheet
– Actively seek out low cost labor and real estate markets
– Very disciplined purchase of debt and use of line of credit
– Pricing confidence from 14 tears and over 1,850 pools of data
– Track record of conservative pricing bias
• Accounts are not re-sold
– Many competitors try to quickly squeeze some value out of accounts before
re-selling them. PRAA works accounts over a MUCH longer time span.
14. Call Centers
• US Locations
– Hutchinson, Kansas (Premier Location)
– Jackson, Tennessee (91%)
– Norfolk, Virginia (88%)
– Hampton, Virginia (87%)
– Birmingham, Alabama (81%)
• International Locations
– Philippines (47%)
– Panama City (Newly Opened)
• Productivity up at ALL centers
• Continued Investment in Operational Efficiency & Automation
– Made 38% more calls in Q4 2010 vs. 2009
– Able to profitably work accounts with lower balances and lower scores
– Accounts are re-scored EVERY night
18. Valuation
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Terminal Value
EBIT $ 184,569 $ 237,838 $ 273,514 $ 300,865 $ 315,909
Less Taxes (68,798) (88,214) (105,987) (116,585) (122,415)
Plus Depr. 301,707 368,448 375,817 368,300 360,934
Less CapEx (390,179) (370,670) (363,257) (355,992) (348,872)
Less Change in WC
Free Cash Flow 27,299 147,402 180,087 196,589 205,556
NPV $ 24,598 $ 119,678 $ 131,749 $ 129,592 $ 122,098 $ 1,575,948
DCF $ 2,103,663
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00% Less Debt (463,153)
WACC 10.98% Plus Cash 25,481
Risk Free Rate 2.15% Equity Value $ 1,665,991
Risk Premium 9.01% Diluted Shares 17,225
Beta 1.16 Price/Share $ 96.72
Upside to Current 45.09%
19. Risk Factors
• Double Dip Recession
– Looking less likely all the time, but important to monitor
• Massive influx of competitors / Material Rise in Debt Pricing
– Company has shown strong discipline in the past by reducing purchasing when
prices rise beyond acceptable levels, but this would impact revenues over the
next few years
• Long Term Reduction in Consumer Debt Levels
• My greatest concern over the next 5 years. Should not impact company over
the next 2 years, but this will likely hurt long-run profitability.
• Major Changes to US Debt Collection and/or Bankruptcy Law
– Unlikely to occur near term given current political environment. PRAA has
also always been a leader within the industry in terms of regulatory
compliance
• Major Changes to Credit Facility
– Just expanded credit facility from $365mm to $407.5mm in Q4 @ LIBOR +275,
maturing in December 2014. Currently using $300mm.