GOR, Mannheim, March 6, 2013

1. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging in Germany:
A Time-Series Analysis of the Relationship
between Political Blogs and Mass Media
Florian Buhl, M. A.
General Online Research
Mannheim, March 6, 2013

2. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 2
Weblogs – a (new) public arena for political communication
Scoial
environment!
Issue salience in
political system!
Issue salience in Issue salience in
mass media! political weblogs
Adapted from Rössler (1997)
Florian Buhl, M. A.

3. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 3
Temporal patterns of participation in political debates
...! yester- today! tomorrow! day after ...!
day! tomorrow!
Florian Buhl, M. A.

4. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 4
Potentials for agenda-setting effects between mass media
and political weblogs
Orientation to salient issues
to contribute to public
opinion formation
Issue salience in Issue salience in
mass media! political weblogs
Orientation to emerging
issues and to public
(audience) salience
(Messner & DiStaso, 2008)
Ø Findings in the USA: Bidirectional relationships between political weblogs and
mass media in agenda-setting processes (Wallsten, 2007; Meraz, 2011)
Florian Buhl, M. A.

5. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 5
Research questions
Ø Which temporal patterns of participation in poltical debates through blogging can
be identifed in Germany?
Ø Are there indications for agenda-setting effects between political weblogs and
mass media in Germany?
Florian Buhl, M. A.

6. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 6
Data: Number of news items on four political issues
• Issues:
• Eurozone crisis
• Arab Spring
• International terrorism
• Nuclear energy
• Time frame: April 1st, 2011 – Juni 30th, 2011 (91 days)
Ø Daily number of news items on each political issue in evening TV news shows and
in political weblogs during the 91 days time frame under study
Florian Buhl, M. A.

7. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 7
Data: Sampling and Methods
Evening TV news shows
• Sample: 5 German evening TV news shows (ARD Tagesschau, ARD Tagesthemen,
ZDF heute, ZDF heute-journal, RTL Aktuell)
• N = 8778 news items
• Secondary analysis of content analysis data provided by Media Tenor
Political weblogs
• Sample: 10 political blogs with a main focus on politics sampled from the German
Blogcharts (Netzpolitik, Fefes Blog, Nachdenkseiten, Alles Schall und Rauch, Carta,
Politcally Incorrect, Die Achse des Guten, Internat Law, The Intelligence, Der
Postillon)
• N = 6181 news items
• Original quantitative content analsyis
Florian Buhl, M. A.

8. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 8
Data analysis: Cross-correlational tests between time series
Times series TV news !
Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of
items on items on items on items on items on Time!
issue! issue! issue! issue! issue!
r at r at
lag -2! lag +2!
r at r at
r at
lag -1! lag +1!
lag 0!
Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of
items on items on items on items on items on Time!
issue! issue! issue! issue! issue!
Time series political weblogs!
day before yesterday! today! tomorrow! day after
yesterday! tomorrow!
Ø Both for original frequencies and for white-noise components of time series
identified through ARIMA modeling
Florian Buhl, M. A.

9. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 9
Results: Eurozone crisis
Total number of items Daily mean of items ARIMA modeling
TV news 500 5.49 (1, 0, 0) AR(1) = .57 con = 5.59
Weblogs 310 3.41 (0, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)7 MA(1)7 = .80 con = 0.43
Florian Buhl, M. A.

10. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 10
Results: Eurozone crisis
Blogs precede TV news TV news precede blogs
Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Original frequencies .32* .19 .18 .12 .24* .22* .18 .47* .56* .37* .23* .18 .12 .18 .32*
Prewhitening .19 -.07 .04 -.09 .09 .13 -.10 -.02 .30* .23* .14 .06 -.05 .08 .14
*p < .05
Ø Correspondence between issue salience in politcal weblogs and in TV news
Ø Issue salience in political weblogs is predictable from issue salience in TV news
Florian Buhl, M. A.

11. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 11
Results: Arab Spring
Total number of items Daily mean of items ARIMA modeling
TV news 916 10.07 (0, 1, 1) MA(1) = .65
Weblogs 199 2.19 (0, 0, 0) con = 2.19
Florian Buhl, M. A.

12. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 12
Results: Arab Spring
Blogs precede TV news TV news precede blogs
Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Original frequencies .09 .18 .23* .21 .14 .17 .14 .24* .33* .16 .17 .29* .12 .09 .24*
Prewhitening -.15 .00 .12 .11 -.06 .01 -.09 .00 .23* -.02 -.03 .21 .01 -.04 .23*
*p < .05
Ø Correspondence between issue salience in politcal weblogs and in TV news
Ø Issue salience in political weblogs is predictable from issue salience in TV news
Florian Buhl, M. A.

13. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 13
Results: International terrorism
Total number of items Daily mean of items ARIMA modeling
TV news 390 4.29 (3, 0, 0) AR(1) = .45 AR(3) = .33
Weblogs 328 3.60 (2, 0, 0) AR(1) = .57 AR(2) = .31
Florian Buhl, M. A.

14. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 14
Results: International terrorism
Blogs precede TV news TV news precede blogs
Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Original frequencies .02 .01 .07 .19 .23* .32* .49* .71* .63* .67* .59* .50* .47* .37* .29*
Prewhitening .01 -.08 -.11 .03 -.13 -.02 .12 .61* .09 .17 .08 -.05 .13 .00 -.04
*p < .05
Ø Correspondence between issue salience in politcal weblogs and in TV news
Ø Synchronous relationship between issue salience in political weblogs and in TV news
Florian Buhl, M. A.

15. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 15
Results: Nuclear energy
Total number of items Daily mean of items ARIMA modeling
TV news 523 5.75 (0, 0, 0) con = 5.75
Weblogs 352 3.87 (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 0)7 MA(1) = .81 AR(1)7 = .34
Florian Buhl, M. A.

16. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 16
Results: Nuclear energy
Blogs precede TV news TV news precede blogs
Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Original frequencies .10 .13 .14 .24* .28* .18 .11 .37* .23* .34* .28* .18 .03 .12 .28*
Prewhitening .00 .08 -.04 .06 .06 -.08 -.23* .09 -.03 .11 -.07 -.12 -.20 -.04 .02
*p < .05
Ø Correspondence between issue salience in politcal weblogs and in TV news
Ø Issue salience in political weblogs and in TV news are not (positively) predictable
from each other
Florian Buhl, M. A.

17. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 17
Results: Summary of relationships of issue salience in
political weblogs and in TV news
Original frequencies Prewhitening
Eurozone crisis Weblogs predictable from
Arab Spring TV news
Correspondence
International terrorism Synchronous
Nuclear energy No (positive) relationship
Florian Buhl, M. A.

18. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 18
Discussion
Issue salience in Issue salience in
mass media! political weblogs
Ø Indications of agenda-settings effects of mass media on political weblogs
Ø Lack of indication of agenda-setting-effects of political weblogs on mass media – in
contrast to findings in the USA
• Lack of focal points in the German political blogosphere (Holler, Vollnhals, &
Faas, 2008)
• German journalists‘ reservation towards the use of weblogs (Neuberger &
Nuernbergk, 2010)
• Opinion-focused communication in political weblogs more connective in the
USA
Florian Buhl, M. A.

19. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 19
References
• Holler, S., Vollnhals, S., & Faas, T. (2008). Focal Points und Journalisten – Bedingungen für den
Einfluss der Blogosphäre. In A. Zerfaß, M. Welker & J. Schmidt (Hrsg.), Kommunikation, Partizipation
und Wirkungen im Social Web: Strategien und Anwendungen: Perspektiven für Wirtschaft, Politik und
Publizistik (S. 94-111). Köln: Herbert von Halem Verlag.
• Meraz, S. (2011). Using Time Series Analysis to Measure Intermedia Agenda-Setting Influence in
Traditional Media and Political Blog Networks. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 88(1),
176-194.
• Messner, M., & DiStaso, M. W. (2008). The source cycle: How traditional media and weblogs use each
other as sources. Journalism Studies, 9(3), 447-463.
• Neuberger, C., & Nuernbergk, C. (2010). Competition, complementarity or integration? The
relationship between professional and participatory media. Journalism Practice, 4(3), 319-332.
• Rössler, P. (1997). Die Definitionsmacht für Themen des politischen Diskurses in einer veränderten
Kommunikationswelt: Agenda-Setting und die Individualisierungstendenzen im Online-Zeitalter – ein
Szenario. In H. Schatz, O. Jarren & B. Knaup (Hrsg.), Machtkonzentration in der Mediengesellschaft?
Beiträge zu einer Neubestimmung des Verhältnisses von politischer und medialer Macht (S. 78-97).
Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag.
• Wallsten, K. (2007). Agenda Setting and the Blogosphere: An Analysis of the Relationship between
Mainstream Media and Political Blogs. Review of Policy Research, 24(6), 567-587.
Florian Buhl, M. A.

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Thank you!
Florian Buhl, M. A.
florian.buhl@uni-muenster.de
Florian Buhl, M. A.