Oilseed report

® Oilseed Report First year - No 1 / 26 April 2012 - English version

stratégiegrains • EU rapeseed production revised down to 17.6 Mt following winter losses
• Very tight EU rapeseed market for remainder of 2011/12 – 2012/13: rapeseed stocks set to
fall despite 1 Mt decline in crush volume; world export availability expected in decline
• Sunseed production and crush volumes expected very high in EU in 2011/12 and 2012/13 –
balanced situation for both crop years
• Global soybean stock forecast to decline in 2011/12 – further reduction expected for
2012/13 despite sharp growth in production
• Demand for meals in 2011/12 expected down in EU – no growth forecast for 2012/13
• EU vegetable oil supply revised down sharply for 2012/13: EU biodiesel production revised
down to 10.4 Mt

Production 3
Rapeseed 2011/12 2012/13 Oilseed rape 3
July-June as of as of Sunflower and soybean 5
27/03/12 26/04/12
carry-in stock 1.3 1.2 1.3 European Union Rapeseed balances 6
production 19.1 19.1 17.6 Supply and internal demand 6
imports 3.0 3.1 3.1 Prices comparison dated 20/04/2012 9
domestic use 22.1 22.4 21.0 Intra-EU rapeseed trade 9
exports 0.1 0.0 0.0 World rapeseed market 11
carry-out stock 1.3 1.0 1.0 Analysis of ending stocks and conclusion 13
surplus / required stock -0.4 -0.7 -0.6
European Union Sunseed balances 5
1
Supply and internal demand 15
Intra-EU Sunseed trade 17
Sunflower 2011/12 2012/13 World sunseed market 19
August-July as of as of Analysis of ending stocks and conclusion 21
27/03/12 26/04/12
carry-in stock 0.7 0.8 0.7 European Union soybean balances 22
production 8.3 8.1 8.1 Supply and internal demand 22
imports 0.4 0.4 0.4 intra-EU trade 24
domestic use 8.0 7.8 7.9 World soybean market 26
exports 0.6 0.6 0.6 Analysis of ending stock and conclusion 29
carry-out stock 0.7 0.9 0.7
surplus / required stock 0.1 0.3 0.1 EU vegetable oil market 30
Prices comparison 30
Rape oil supply and demand in the EU 30
Sun oil supply and demand in the EU 33
Soybean 2011/12 2012/13 Soy oil supply and demand in the EU 34
October-September as of as of Palm oil supply and demand in the EU 35
27/03/12 26/04/12 Vegetable Oils - global supply and demand 35
carry-in stock 1.4 1.2 1.3 EU vegetable oil market: conclusion 38
production 1.3 1.2 1.2
imports 11.7 11.9 12.0 EU meal market 39
domestic use 13.1 13.5 13.7 Supply of oilmeals in the EU 39
strategie-grains.com exports 0.0 0.0 0.0 EU industrial feed production 40
carry-out stock 1.3 0.8 0.8 Consumption in animal feeds in 2011/12 41
surplus / required stock 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 Consumption in animal feeds 2012/13 43
World soymeal market and conclusion 45

The next issue of Stratégie grains Oilseed Report will be available on 30 May 2012
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graphs and tables
2
Graphs
Graphic 1.1: variation in water balance compared with the norm for period: September 1 2011 through April 19 2012 4
Graphic 1.2: Rapeseed production in the EU27 (Mt) 4
Graphic 1.3: Sunseed production in the EU27 (Mt) 5
Graphic 1.4: Soybean production in the EU27 (Mt) 5
Graphic 2.1: rapeseed crush demand in the EU (Mt) 6
Graphic 2.2: rapeseed crush margins in Hamburg (€/t seeds) 8
Graphic 2.3: comparison between rapeseed and sunseed crush margins in France (€/t seeds) 8
Graphic 2.4: Euronext prices (€/t) 9
Graphic 2.5: world rapeseed prices (US $/t) 11
Graphic 3.1: human/industrial demand for sunseed in the EU27 (Mt) 15
Graphic 3.2 : Sunseed crush margin in France (€/t) 17
Graphic 3.3: world sun seed prices (FOB in US $/t) 19
Graphic 4.1: demand for soybean for crush usage in the EU27 (Mt) 22
Graphic 4.2: world demand for soybean (kt) 27
Graphic 4.3: world soybean prices (CBOT, $/bushel) 28
Graphic 4.4: soybean/maize price ratio in the USA for November/December (CBOT) 28
Graphic 5.1: biodiesel and vegetable oil prices (€/t) 31
Graphic 6.1: changes in cattle numbers in the EU 41
Graphic 6.2: changes in milk collection in the EU compared with quota 41
Graphic 6.3: changes in pig numbers in the EU 41
Graphic 6.4: soy/wheat price ratio in France 42
Graphic 6.5: prices of soymeal, rapemeal and sunmeal in the EU (€/t) 43
Tables
Table 1.1: Oilseed rape planted areas, yields and production 3
Table 1.2: Sunflower planted areas, yields and production 5
Table 1.3: Changes to main arable crop areas (EU27) 4
Table 2.1: breakdown of EU rapeseed imports by country of origin 6
Table 2.2: rapeseed balance sheet July-June 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 7
Table 2.3: rapeseed prices in main EU countries dated 20/04/2012 9
Table 2.4: intra-EU rapeseed trade 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 10
Table 2.5 estimated rapeseed balance sheets for Ukraine, Canada and Australia (July/June) 11
Table 2.6: world rapeseed/canola balance sheet (July/June) 12
Table 2.7: world import requirements and export forecasts (Mt) — July-June 13
Table 3.1: EU sunseed imports by origin (kt) 15
Table 3.2: EU sunseed balance sheet, August-July 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 16
Table 3.3: intra-EU sunseed trade 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 18
Table 3.4: world sunseed supply and demand balance sheet – August-July (Mt) 19
Table 3.5: sunseed balance sheets for Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, and Argentina – August-July 19
Table 3.6: estimated sun seed import requirements and export volumes (Mt) – August–July crop year 20
Table 4.1: EU soybean imports by country of origin (kt) 22
Table 4.2: EU27 soybean balance sheet October-September 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 23
Table 4.3: intra-EU soybean trade 2012/13 and 2011/12 October-September (kt) 25
Table 4.4: world soybean balance sheet October-September (Mt) 26
Table 4.5: FOB prices for main soybean origins dated 19/04/2012 26
Table 4.6: soybean balance sheets for main exporting and importing countries - October-September (Mt) 27
Table 4.7: soybean balance sheets for Ukraine and Russia - October-September (Mt) 27
Table 4.8: monthly soybean imports for China (Mt) 27
Table 5.1: vegetable oil prices in Rotterdam on 20/04/12 ($/t) 30
Table 5.2: supply and demand balance sheet of rape oil in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –July/June 31
Table 5.3: supply and demand balance sheet for biodiesel in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –July/june 31
Table 5.4: supply and demand balance sheet for sun oil in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –August/July 33
Table 5.5: supply and demand balance sheet for soy oil in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –October/September 34
Table 5.6: supply and demand balance sheet for palm oil in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –July/June 35
Table 5.7: world supply and demand for the main oils (Mt) 36
Table 5.8: FOB prices of the main oils ($/t) 37
Table 5.9: EU supply and demand balance sheet for the 4 main vegetable oils * 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) 38
Table 6.1: soymeal imports in the EU27 (Mt) 39
Table 6.2: prices of the main soymeal and sunmeal origins dated 23/04/12 ($/t) 39
Table 6.3: changes in industrial animal feed production in EU countries xxx voir période xxx 40
Table 6.4: demand for soymeal, rapemeal and sunmeal in industrial animal feeds* and on-farm feeds* (October-September) 42
Table 6.5 EU soymeal balance sheets – October-September 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 43
Table 6.6: EU rapemeal balance sheets – July-June 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 44
Table 6.7: EU sunmeal balance sheets – August-July 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 44
Table 6.8: World soymeal balance sheets – October-September 2010/11, 2011/12, 2012/13 (Mt) 45
S t r a t é g i e g r a i n s — O i l s e e d R e p o r t 1 — 26 A p r i l 2012

EU production of rapeseed & sunseed
3

Production
• Winterkill and damage on oilseed rape revised up sharply in Germany, Poland and France since last
month
• Rapeseed yield revised down in main producer countries due to frost and drought in the southeastern
EU countries
• Rapeseed production revised down sharply (-1.5 Mt) to 17.6 Mt in 2012
• Large fall in sunflower area in Spain due to drought, but increase in several countries due to
replanting of lost winter crop fields
• Sunseed production still expected at 8.1 Mt in 2012
• Soybean production expected down slightly compared with 2011/12

Oilseed rape
Rapeseed production now expected sharply down on previous years
Crop year 2012/13 oilseed rape. in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary and
At the start of the crop year, good conditions Meanwhile in the north EU countries, rains prevented plant emergence in some fields.
at planting time in Germany and Denmark A mild autumn in Europe in most countries
at planting time and attractive margins
caused a decline in oilseed rape acreage. allowed the rapeseed plants to develop more
in France, UK and Poland generated an In the southeast EU, a severe autumn drought quickly than normal and raised the possibility
increase in oilseed rape plantings. Farmers restricted oilseed rape plantings. This drought that the plants would exit the rosette stage too
in the central EU countries also planted more continued through the start of the winter early. During this stage of the growth cycle, the
Table 1.1: Oilseed rape planted areas, yields and production
Area (kha) Yield (t/ha) Production (kt)
∆ / prev.
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
month
Germany 1471 1461 1328 1280 4.28 3.90 2.94 3.38 6301 5697 3904 4324 -466
Belgium-Lux 14 16 17 17 4.17 3.83 4.29 4.04 60 61 73 69 0
Denmark 163 167 151 101 3.91 3.48 3.36 3.63 638 580 508 366 0
Spain 22 21 31 32 1.60 1.82 1.98 1.89 35 38 62 61 0
France 1481 1465 1556 1528 3.77 3.29 3.45 3.19 5589 4815 5368 4874 -571
Greece 4 8 7 7 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 6 12 10 10 0
Ireland 6 8 9 10 3.76 3.51 4.10 4.02 24 28 35 38 0
Italy 25 20 19 16 2.04 2.47 2.34 2.45 50 50 44 39 0
The Netherl. 3 3 2 2 4.54 4.38 3.44 4.05 12 12 7 8 0
Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
United Kingd. 570 642 705 761 3.35 3.47 3.91 3.52 1912 2230 2756 2682 121
Austria 57 54 53 53 3.01 3.17 3.35 3.29 171 171 179 173 0
Finland 81 158 91 79 1.73 1.13 1.26 1.38 140 179 115 109 -19
Sweden 98 109 99 106 3.04 2.57 2.70 2.65 298 280 266 281 0
Poland 810 946 827 713 3.08 2.36 2.23 2.38 2497 2229 1847 1700 -404
Hungary 261 259 233 171 2.41 2.05 2.26 2.20 630 531 527 377 -42
Czech Republic 355 369 373 386 3.18 2.83 2.80 2.92 1128 1042 1046 1128 -59
Slovakia 166 164 145 96 2.32 1.97 2.43 2.28 387 322 353 218 -11
Estonia 82 98 89 88 1.66 1.33 1.61 1.70 136 131 144 149 -26
Latvia 93 111 121 119 2.19 2.05 1.81 2.07 205 226 219 246 0
Lithuania 192 252 253 241 2.17 1.65 1.81 1.82 416 417 458 439 0
Slovenia 4 6 5 6 2.23 2.68 2.92 2.58 10 16 14 15 0
Cyprus/Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Romania 442 506 384 54 1.59 1.95 1.73 1.51 702 986 664 81 -5
Bulgaria 108 186 219 95 2.17 2.93 2.37 2.17 235 545 519 207 -55
EU 27 6509 7027 6717 5959 3.32 2.93 2.85 2.95 21580 20597 19119 17593 -1539


4
plants have a high degree of resistance Graphic 1.1: variation in water balance March. There was some rainfall in
to the cold, but once grown out of it, compared with the norm for period: the first half of April, but most EU
they are more vulnerable. The risk September 1 2011 through April 19 2012 countries are currently suffering
of frost damage and winterkill was from a low to record-low water
therefore higher than normal even balance (see graphic 1.1). Rainfall
as soon as winter started. levels in the coming weeks will need
Freezing conditions finally arrived to be closely monitored. In central
at the end of January. With little or Europe, the drought has coincided
no snow in much of east and central with very sharp temperature swings
Europe, there was significant damage between sub-zero temperatures at
to the crops. In Bulgaria and Romania, night and positive temperatures
the depth of the snow blanket varied during the day. This phenomenon
ended in the week of April 16-20 as
sharply from place to place because of
temperatures began to increase. This
extremely high winds. The oilseed rape
kind of weather scenario during the
plants in these countries were already
spring (rains following severe drought)
in a vulnerable condition because of
could cause an increased risk of disease,
the dry conditions at planting time notably rapeseed blackspot disease
and hence were less able to resist the (Alternaria). This situation will need
cold. to be closely monitored.
With the resumption of plant growth With the oilseed rape plants currently
in most rapeseed-growing countries, flowering in most EU producer
since March we have gradually got Source: MARS JRC countries, weather conditions are
more accurate picture of winterkill/ at present not ideal for pollination
crop damage: Graphic 1.2: Rapeseed production in because temperatures are too low. However,
 Romania and Bulgaria – according to the EU27 (Mt) given the rapeseed plants’ good capacity for
current estimates, respectively 80 % and recovery, it is too early to further decrease our
60 % of winter rapeseed acreage has been yield forecasts as a result of this.
impacted since this year’s crop was planted; We currently estimate oilseed rape area
 Slovakia - 40 % of winter rapeseed in the EU at 6 Mha, down 0.8 Mha from
plantings will no longer be harvested, the level of 2011/12 (this will be the lowest
either due to the autumn drought of the 20,6 19,1 acreage since 2006).
17,6
freezing spell; We currently expect EU rapeseed yield at 2.95
 Poland – damage is estimated at 25 % of t/ha (2.85 t/ha in 2011/12). Yield in many
acreage (compared with 9 % in 2011/12); countries has been reduced to take into account
 Czech Republic - damage is estimated at 8 the fields which were impacted by the freezing
% of acreage; conditions but will not be replanted and for
 Austria - 6 % of acreage will be replanted; 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 which yield potential is therefore reduced. We
 Germany – winterkill will force farmers to
currently expect rapeseed production in the
replant 5 % of winter rapeseed acreage; Bourgogne and Champagne-Ardenne (10 EU at 17.6 Mt (19.1 Mt in 2011/12). This will
% replanted in each). be the lowest level since the harvest of 2006.
 France – around 3 % of acreage will need
If the weather continues to be very unfavourable
to be replanted. Damage is mostly centred The weather has been extremely dry across
for oilseed rape development, yield could fall to
on Lorraine (20 % to be replanted), Europe since the end of winter and through
2.81 t/ha, as in 2007/08, with EU production
Table 1.3: Changes to main arable crop areas (EU27) at 16.7 Mt. By contrast, if yields were reasonable
(with good conditions from now until harvest
commercial crop years
areas (kha) time), it might still be possible to obtain a yield
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Total cereals 58 230 55 360 55 570 55 780 of 3 t/ha and a harvest of 18 Mt.
Total oilseeds (included crops grown on set-aside) 11 210 11 670 11 920 11 150 N.B: Subscribers to the Oilseed crop module
Total protein crops 1 190 1 510 1 390 1 250
on our website www. strategie-grains.com may
Silage 5 310 5 530 5 730 6 050
consult our full area, yield and production
EU set-aside & fallow land (non food crops exclud.) 6 050 6 670 5 940 6 190
of which EU 15 set-aside 4 060 4 330 3 990 4 240
estimates with historical database and forecasts
Sugar beet 1 600 1 580 1 630 1 650 by country and crop year.
Total area cultivated + set-aside * 83 590 82 320 82 180 82 070


5
Sunflower and soybean
Sunflower area expected to increase again in 2012/13
Crop year 2012/13
Graphic 1.3: Sunseed production in Graphic 1.4: Soybean production in
Like the other spring crops, sunflower area the EU27 (Mt) the EU27 (Mt)
is expected to increase because farmers will
replant winter crop fields lost or destroyed
because of drought or cold with spring crops.
We currently estimate that sunflower area will
increase from 4.2 Mha in 2011 to 4.3 Mha in
2012, which will be the highest level since the 8,3 8,1 1,3
6,9 1,2 1,2
harvest of 2003.
The countries where sunflower area will
increase most sharply are Romania (+150
kha), Bulgaria (+30 kha), Slovakia (+ 30 kha), 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Czech Republic (+20 kha) and France (+15
kha). In Spain, the current drought is forcing We currently expect sunseed yield in the place in France and Spain and in the southeast
farmers to leave fields unplanted instead of EU at 1.9 t/ha (1.97 t/ha in 2011/12), with EU countries.
sowing sunflower, because expected sunseed production at 8.1 Mt (8.3 Mt in 2011/12). We estimate soybean area in the EU at 430
yields are too low to definitively guarantee a The increase in acreage will not be sufficient kha (down 20 kha compared with 2011/12).
profit. Sunflower area is therefore expected to offset the relative fall in yield compared with With yield estimated at 2.8 t/ha (2.92 t/ha in
sharply down on last year (-170 kha) in Spain, last year’s excellent results. 2011/12), the harvest is expected at 1.2 Mt in
at 680 kha. Sunflower plantings are currently taking 2012/13 (1.3 Mt in 2011/12).

Table 1.2: Sunflower planted areas, yields and production
Area (kha) Yield (t/ha) Production (kt)
∆ / prev.
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
month
Germany 24 25 27 29 2.41 1.89 1.99 2.17 57 47 53 64 12
Spain 851 698 858 682 1.02 1.22 1.21 1.18 870 850 1035 804 -177
France 725 695 741 756 2.37 2.36 2.54 2.47 1720 1641 1885 1867 44
Greece 24 64 66 69 1.20 2.53 1.69 1.62 28 161 112 112 0
Italy 124 101 118 114 2.26 2.12 2.32 2.31 280 213 274 262 9
Portugal 21 14 15 15 0.52 0.54 1.02 0.69 11 8 15 10 0
United Kingd. 1 1 1 1 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2 2 2 2 0
Austria 26 25 26 26 2.74 2.62 2.83 2.72 71 67 74 71 0
Poland 2 2 2 2 1.78 1.52 1.78 1.78 4 3 4 4 0
Hungary 535 502 574 585 2.35 1.93 2.38 2.40 1256 970 1368 1406 0
Czech Republic 26 27 29 51 2.38 2.11 2.48 2.39 61 57 71 123 55
Slovakia 83 83 90 107 2.26 1.81 2.45 2.38 187 150 219 255 32
Romania 766 791 985 1132 1.43 1.60 1.82 1.57 1098 1263 1792 1779 23
Bulgaria 662 648 682 709 1.89 2.19 2.03 1.95 1250 1419 1385 1381 0
oth. Countries 0 0 0 0 1.45 2.34 2.61 1.84 0 0 1 1 0
EU 27 3869 3676 4213 4281 1.78 1.86 1.97 1.90 6896 6851 8290 8140 -2


European Union Rapeseed balances
6

• EU rapeseed production expected sharply down in 2012 to 17.6 Mt
• Crush volume expected down sharply in 2012/13 –rapeseed imports limited by lack of global availability
• EU rapeseed stock expected down to 0.9 Mt and global stock to 4.9 Mt at end-2012/13
• Extremely tight outlook for new crop year

Supply and internal demand
2011/12: crush volume in EU expected at 21.5 Mt – 2012/13: production and
crush activity expected down sharply
Crop year 2011/12 compared with 2010/11. crush volume in the EU is estimated down
Rapeseed imports from Ukraine are currently to 21.5 Mt in 2011/12 (-1 Mt compared with
Production forecast at 960 kt (-50 kt compared with last 2010/11). Since the start of crop year 2011/12,
EU rapeseed production in 2011 remains month and -250 kt compared with 2010/11). the crush margin average in Hamburg is slight-
estimated at 19.1 Mt. It has increased very Rapeseed imports from other Black Sea coun- ly above 20 €/t, which is also the case on the
slightly (+20 kt) since last month due to an in- tries (Russia, Moldova and Kazakhstan) are last quarter of the campaign. There are thus
crease for production in France. expected up at 125 kt (+35 kt compared with around 10 €/t below last year, and about 20 €/t
Most of the reduction compared with 2010 last month; +55 kt compared with 2010/11). below 2009/10.
(-1.5 Mt, see Production) corresponds to small- We forecast a sharp rise in imports from Aus- Likewise, rapeseed crush margins in Rouen are
er harvests in Germany (-1.8 Mt), Poland (-380 tralia to 1.63 Mt (+0.1 Mt compared with currently low, and have on occasion dropped
kt), north EU countries (-150 kt in total) and last month; +0.6 Mt compared with last year). as low as 30 €/t (on crushed seed) and are at
Romania (-320 kt); these falls are partly offset Rapeseed exports recorded from Australia around 40 €/t averaged for the entire crop year,
by increases in France and Britain (+550 kt and are high (around 300 kt per month since De- which is 10 €/t below the averaged value in
+530 kt respectively). cember), and should arrive in 2011/12. This 2010/11. The current margin is around 30 €/t
estimate has an increase potential if shipments spot/near-term.
N.B: Subscribers to the “EU crop – Oilseed” We have increased estimated crush volume
arrive more quickly than expected.
module on our website www.strategie-grains.com in the EU by 50 kt since last month; crush is
Canadian rapeseed exports to the EU are also
may consult our full area, yield and production revised up 180 kt in the Netherlands (to 1.16
forecast up in 2011/12, although on a smaller
estimates with historical database and forecasts scale, to 275 kt (no change since last month, Mt) but this is partly offset by reductions in
by country and crop year. +60 kt vs. 2010/11). Canadian rapeseed can- Germany (-100 kt to 7.3 Mt) and Spain (-20
Imports not be used in all EU countries because it com- kt to 90 kt). These adjustments are made to
Our forecasts now include the latest available prises GM content, which limits its access to reflect the latest statistics for crush demand, oil
the EU market. Portugal and France are the production and/or imports.
customs statistics for crop year 2011/12 (Feb-
main importers of Canadian rapeseed: Por- Industrial rapeseed usage is expected down
ruary 2012 for EU trade with third countries).
tugal had imported 150 kt as of February 29 in most other EU countries compared with
Given recorded imports shown in these sta-
2012 and we expect that the EU will import an 2010/11, most notably France (-465 kt to 4
tistics and current price spreads between EU
additional 95 kt from Canada by the end of the Mt), Germany (-325 kt to 7.3 Mt) and Poland
rapeseed and other main export origins, EU
crop year. However, Canadian statistics do not (-210 kt to 2 Mt). However, it is expected up
rapeseed imports from third countries are
show any exports to the EU since December; in the Netherlands (+150 kt) and the United-
now forecast at 3 Mt in 2011/12, up 0.46 Mt
our estimate therefore has a decrease potential Graphic 2.1: rapeseed crush demand
Table 2.1: breakdown of EU rapeseed in the event that exports do not pick up. in the EU (Mt)
imports by country of origin Since last month, we have increased our fore-
kt 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 cast for EU rapeseed imports (+90 kt), notably 22.5
Ukraine 1371 1209 960 850 for Germany to 350 kt and France to 370 kt
Other CIS 328 69 125 300 21.5
(+30 kt each); there are also smaller increases
Australia 314 1035 1625 1525
(+10/15 kt) for the Netherlands (to 1 Mt) and 20.5
Canada 95 216 275 400
Others 39 46 51 40
Poland (to 280 kt).
Total 2147 2575 3036 3115 Demand for industrial usage
Source: Stratégie grains (based on data 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Due to limited supply and low rape oil pro-
from Eurostats) duction margins (see graphic 2.2), rapeseed

7
Table 2.2: rapeseed balance sheet July-June 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt)
imports grains exports animal consump.

seeds, waste and
overseas usage
July-June

ex-farm sales

requirement
2012/13

from EU 27
production

compound
to non-EU
from non-

free stock
of which:

to EU 27

carry-out
on-farm

demand

surplus/
carry-in

supply

deficit
crush
stock

stock
total

feed
feed
EU
Ger. 319 4324 3508 2786 621 8050 406 6 7000 227 10 217 0 7639 411 -130 538
Bel/L 77 69 904 525 1576 392 1100 10 0 10 0 1502 74 -10 85
Den. 16 366 324 37 743 154 0 501 60 0 60 0 714 29 -10 39
Spn. 22 61 31 0 114 5 0 90 0 0 95 20 10 7
Fra-new. 206 4874 4808 210 548 5839 1629 11 3984 47 60 5731 108 -200 306
Gre. 0 10 2 10 23 0 20 0 0 20 3 0 2
Irl. 4 38 6 2 50 18 29 0 0 47 3 0 2
Ita. 2 39 45 4 90 10 1 75 0 0 86 4 0 6
Neth. 219 8 484 846 1557 517 0 935 23 0 1476 81 10 72
Por. 14 0 5 194 212 1 197 0 0 198 14 0 15
U.K. 143 2682 128 23 2976 715 1 2102 38 0 38 0 2857 119 -40 162
Aust. 28 173 173 206 9 417 62 1 348 5 0 5 0 416 1 -30 27
Fin. 15 109 122 11 257 0 0 250 5 0 5 0 255 2 -20 19
Swed. 7 281 61 2 350 30 0 310 5 0 5 0 345 5 -20 24
Pol. 106 1700 163 216 2185 243 0 1880 17 0 17 0 2141 44 -100 145
Hun. 10 377 204 13 605 412 1 180 0 7 600 5 -10 14
Cz.R. 37 1128 107 3 1275 355 1 900 0 0 1256 20 -50 69
Slk. 22 218 138 7 385 289 95 0 0 384 1 -10 7
Est. 9 149 48 1 208 137 68 0 0 0 0 206 2 0 5
Lat. 3 246 45 22 314 197 110 7 0 7 0 314 1 -10 8
Lit. 9 439 49 20 517 279 235 0 0 514 3 -10 18
Sln. 5 15 8 1 29 24 4 0 0 0 0 28 1 0 0
Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mal. 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rom. 7 81 126 1 215 145 5 60 0 0 210 5 0 5
Bul. 2 207 2 0 211 185 1 19 0 0 205 6 0 1
EU 27 1284 17593 6205 3115 28197 6205 28 20491 444 67 27236 962 -630 1576

imports grains exports animal consump.
seeds, waste and
overseas usage
July-June

ex-farm sales

requirement
2011/12

from EU 27
production

compound
to non-EU
from non-

free stock
of which:

to EU 27

carry-out
on-farm

demand

surplus/
carry-in

supply

deficit
crush
stock

stock
total

feed
feed
EU

Ger. 310 3904 3087 3534 348 8096 232 8 7311 227 10 217 0 7777 319 -240 562
Bel/L 122 73 891 620 1706 384 0 1230 15 0 15 0 1629 77 -20 95
Den. 9 508 192 70 779 169 0 509 85 0 85 0 762 16 -20 39
Spn. 4 62 51 0 116 4 0 90 0 0 94 22 20 7
Fra. 220 5368 5302 352 370 6310 1930 16 4000 97 89 8 60 6103 206 -100 308
Gre. 3 10 2 9 25 0 24 0 0 24 0 0 2
Irl. 11 35 5 3 55 25 25 0 0 50 4 0 2
Ita. 7 44 31 6 88 11 0 75 0 0 86 2 0 6
Neth. 214 7 634 995 1850 451 0 1156 23 0 1631 219 130 89
Por. 14 0 7 237 258 1 243 0 0 244 14 -10 19
U.K. 121 2756 62 2 2941 660 0 2080 58 0 58 0 2798 143 -20 160
Aust. 34 179 179 182 12 408 69 0 305 5 0 5 0 379 28 10 23
Fin. 21 115 116 18 270 0 0 250 5 0 5 0 255 15 0 19
Swed. 27 266 41 2 336 13 0 311 5 0 5 0 329 7 -20 24
Pol. 59 1847 209 280 2396 275 0 1987 27 0 27 0 2290 106 -50 153
Hun. 8 527 371 14 920 698 1 205 0 7 910 10 -10 16
Cz.R. 53 1046 104 2 1204 270 0 897 0 0 1167 37 -30 69
Slk. 17 353 208 12 591 404 165 0 0 569 22 10 13
Est. 5 144 1 1 150 81 60 0 0 0 0 141 9 0 5
Lat. 17 219 51 27 314 204 100 7 0 7 0 311 3 -10 8
Lit. 16 458 46 4 524 263 252 0 0 515 9 -10 19
Sln. 15 14 3 1 33 22 6 0 0 0 0 28 5 0 0
Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mal. 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rom. 20 664 102 0 787 555 30 195 0 0 780 7 -10 15
Bul. 19 519 3 0 541 476 44 19 0 0 539 2 0 1
EU 27 1346 19119 7197 3036 30698 7197 100 21495 554 67 29413 1284 -380 1653

8
Kingdom (+65 kt). other countries, notably Graphic 2.2: rapeseed crush margins in
the Netherlands (-180 kt), Hamburg (€/t seeds)
Other usage Belgium (-95 kt) and Po- 100,0 2009/10 2010/11
No change this month: Rapeseed consump- land (-65 kt, due to lower 2011/12 2012/13
tion for animal feed and other uses remains imports from Ukraine).
forecast at 620 kt in 2011/12. 80,0
These estimates are
provisional and will be
Crop year 2012/13 amended as the year un- 60,0
folds to reflect harvest
Production
volumes and spreads be- 40,0
Rapeseed production in the EU27 is now
tween the prices of EU
expected at 17.6 Mt, sharply down on last
and other world rapeseed
year’s level (-1.53 Mt compared with 2011/12 20,0
origins.
- see Production). Since last month, we have
sharply reduced our harvest forecasts for N.B: Subscribers to our
0,0
France (-570 kt to 4.88 Mt), Poland (-405 kt online “EU trade with
jul sept nov jan march may
to 1.7 Mt) and Germany (-465 kt to 4.32 Mt). third countries” module
These reductions mostly correspond to higher can consult the full trade this month reduced projected crush volumes
than previously expected levels of winterkill/ breakdown for 2011/12 and 2012/13 (for each in Germany (-320 kt), Poland (-300 kt), France
damage. Production is still forecast higher than origin and destination) at our website strategie-
(-250 kt) and Belgium (-200 kt). Crush in Ro-
last year in the UK (+120 kt to 2.68 Mt). Since grains.com”.
mania (-25 kt) and Bulgaria (-20 kt) was again
last month, our estimate for rapeseed pro-
Demand for industrial usage revised down.
duction in 2012 has decreased by 1.54 Mt.
Rapeseed crush volume in the EU is ex-
Compared with 2011, rapeseed production is
pected down sharply in 2012/13 to 20.5 Other usage
expected sharply down in Romania (-585 kt),
Mt (-1 Mt compared with 2011/12). Our Rapeseed consumption for animal feed and
Bulgaria (-345 kt), France (-500 kt), UK (-195
first estimates for crush margins, based on cur- other uses is forecast lower than the level of
kt), Poland (-150 kt), Hungary (-150 kt) and
rently quoted prices (prices on futures markets 2011/12 at 545 kt, with decreases compared
Slovakia (-135 kt). After the unfavourable
and prices for oils and meals delivered in the with last year for France (-50 kt) and Denmark
weather impact of 2011, production is ex-
new crop year) indicate margins potentially at
pected up in Germany (+0.5 Mt to 4.4 Mt); it (-25 kt) due to sharply reduced availabilities.
around 30 €/t in France, 20-25 €/t in the UK,
should also increase slightly in Czech Republic
and in Germany between 15 €/t (in Neuss) Since last month, we have decreased other
(+80 kt) and Latvia (+25 kt).
and 20 €/t (in Hamburg). These levels are rapeseed usages in France (-100 kt) to reflect
Imports around 10 €/t less than averaged values in the lower harvest forecast.
EU rapeseed imports in 2012/13 are expect- 2011/12 and in some places will not be suffi-
ed up slightly compared with 2011/12 (+80 cient to cover fixed produc-
kt) at 3.12 Mt (see table 2.1). Despite high tion costs. Hence these crush Graphic 2.3: comparison between rapeseed and
demand in the EU, this increase is fairly small margins are extremely low. sunseed crush margins in France (€/t seeds)
and stems from reduced supplies elsewhere in The reduction in crush vol-
the world (see below: World market). umes will impact several EU 150
Compared with 2011/12 (Table 2.1), we fore- countries, notably Germany
(-300 kt), Netherlands (-220 130 rape
cast small reductions in imports from Australia
(-100 kt to 1.53 Mt) and Ukraine (-110 kt to kt), Belgium (-130 kt), Po- 110
850 kt). The other Black Sea countries could land (-105 kt) and Romania sun
90
export around 300 kt to the EU (+175 kt no- (-135 kt).
Since last month, we have 70
tably from Belarus, assuming an end to export
restrictions in that country). Canada could also sharply reduced our estimate 50
export slightly more in 2012/13 to the EU for crush volume in the EU
30
(+125 kt to 400 kt). by 1.3 Mt; this reflects the
We forecast higher import volumes in Ger- lower harvest forecast, high- 10
many (+275 kt to 620 kt) and France (+180 kt er prices and the fall in mar- -10
to 545 kt), but lower import volumes in most gins (see above). We have


9

Prices comparison dated 20/04/2012
New increase for rapeseed prices
Table 2.3 shows the main price changes since On most market points
last month. Graphic 2.4: Euronext prices (€/t)
in the EU, the higher
In Germany, the C&F Hamburg price in- world soybean price and 525
creased sharply, rising almost 35 €/t since last the sharp fall in expected Rapeseed price May 12
month to 505 €/t. The delivered Neuss and rapeseed production (€/t)
Aug 12
500
Rostock prices both rose by 18 €/t to 500 €/t pushed prices upward in Nov 12
and 492 €/t respectively. conjunction with a new
Rapeseed prices in France also rose sharply: the 475
decline in the value of the
FOB Moselle price rose 22 €/t to 500 €/t and euro against the dollar (to
the FOB Rouen price by 26 €/t to 488 €/t. In 1.31 $/€, down from 1.32 450
the UK, the rapeseed price also followed this last month).
trend increasing by 25 €/t (+10 £/t with ster- French and UK prices 425
ling up slightly against the euro). The Hungar- evolved in the same
ian price rose slightly in Budapest (almost by 20 manner and hence the 400
€/t). competitive spread be-
Table 2.3: rapeseed prices in main EU tween the two origins is 375
countries dated 20/04/2012 unchanged. Hungarian Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012
Mar. 23 Apr. 20 evolution rapeseed’s competitive-
c&f Hamburg 470.5 505.1 34.6 7,4% ness improved slightly
delivered Neuss/Hamm 482.0 500.0 18.0 3,7% again. (+26.5 €/t), and 474.25 €/t for November
rendu Rostock 474.0 492.0 18.0 3,8% On Euronext on April 20 2012, rapeseed (+21 €/t). Contrary to last month, new crop
Fob Moselle 477.0 500.0 23.0 4,8% closed at 501.25 €/t for May (+20 €/t com- prices rose more sharply than old crop prices
delivered Rouen 462.0 488.0 26.0 5,6%
pared with last month), 484.5 €/t for August and hence the inverse spread has narrowed.
c&f South UK 469.9 493.2 23.3 5,0%

Intra-EU rapeseed trade
Trade volume in 2011/12 still expected at record high — 1 Mt reduction for
2012/13
Crop year 2011/12 are also forecast up in Hungary (+195 kt) and Crop year 2012/13
Our forecasts now include the latest statistics Slovakia (+70 kt), with increased tranship- Based on our current harvest forecasts and esti-
published for crop year 2011/12 (February ment of east-EU rapeseeds to Germany. By mates for industrial demand for rapeseeds (no-
2012 for France and Spain, and January 2012 contrast, rapeseed imports are forecast lower tably for crush), we expect a 1 Mt reduction
for the other countries). The volume of intra- than last year in France (-150 kt), UK (-70 kt), in the volume of intra-EU rapeseed trade
EU rapeseed trade in 2011/12 is now ex- Romania (-105 kt) and Belgium (-75 kt). in 2012/13 to 6.2 Mt. The better harvest in
pected at 7.2 Mt, down 70 kt compared with Rapeseed exports are forecast up sharply Germany and the very sharp falls in produc-
last month. This fall corresponds to a lower from France (+710 kt to 1.9 Mt), from the tion in Romania and Bulgaria will significantly
forecast for Dutch exports (-95 kt to 510 kt), UK (+230 kt to 660 kt) and from Hungary alter the pattern of trade between the east and
and to a smaller extent, UK exports (-10 kt). By (+250 kt). Dutch exports are also forecast up west EU.
contrast, we have increased projected exports (+185 kt), as are Belgian exports (+85 kt); Compared with 2011/12, German imports
from Czech Republic and Bulgaria (+15 kt these increases correspond to transhipments are expected down 720 kt to 2.8 Mt; we also
and +10 kt respectively). from third countries to other EU countries. forecast smaller import requirements for the
On the import side, we have revised down pro- Exports are expected sharply down from Ro- Netherlands (-150 kt), France (-140 kt), Hun-
jected import volumes in Germany (-105 kt) mania (-320 kt) and Poland (-105 kt), due to gary (-165 kt) and Slovakia (-70 kt). Imports
but increased projected imports in Hungary, the smaller harvests in these countries. are expected up compared with last year in
Belgium and Poland (around +10 kt each). These forecasts will be subject to variation over Denmark (+130 kt), UK (+65 kt) and in sev-
Compared with 2010/11, imports are still the coming months to reflect trade statistics eral other countries (Estonia, Austria, Sweden).
forecast sharply up in Germany at 3.53 Mt and changes in price spreads between the dif- German exports are expected up 175 kt com-
(+1.44 Mt compared with 2010/11). Imports ferent origins. pared with 2011/12, mainly to Scandinavia;


10
Table 2.4: intra-EU rapeseed trade 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt)
origins destinations 2012/13
Ger. B/L Den. Spn. Fra. Gre. Irl. Ita.Neth. Por. U.K. Aust. Fin. Swe. Pol. Hun. Cze. Slk. Est. Lat. Lit. Sln. Cyp. Mal. Rom. Bul. EU
Ger. 33 83 0 19 0 0 2 55 0 55 18 50 3 32 2 41 4 0 0 1 7 0 0 1 0 406
B/L 313 0 4 29 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 392
Den. 117 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 4 0 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 154
Spn. 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Fra. 844 405 129 10 0 1 1 192 3 33 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1629
Gre. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Irl. 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18
Ita. 1 1 2 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 10
Neth. 353 121 0 15 9 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 517
Por. 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
U.K. 181 215 19 0 123 0 5 0 109 0 0 7 31 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 715
Aust. 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 62
Fin. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Swed. 1 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
Pol. 224 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 243
Hun. 179 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 127 0 0 8 6 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 412
Cz.R. 265 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 16 8 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 355
Slk. 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 0 0 27 167 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 289
Est. 85 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 7 0 20 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 137
Lat. 75 8 25 1 5 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 15 4 8 0 0 0 2 46 0 0 0 0 0 197
Lit. 73 37 21 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 13 0 40 0 0 0 46 43 0 0 0 0 0 279
Sln. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24
Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rom. 30 34 0 0 12 2 0 4 34 0 2 4 0 0 2 11 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 145
Bul. 4 44 10 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 105 185
EU 2786 904 324 31 210 2 6 45 484 5 128 206 122 61 163 204 107 138 48 45 49 8 0 0 126 2 6205

origins destinations 2011/12
Ger. B/L Den. Spn. Fra. Gre. Irl. Ita.Neth. Por. U.K. Aust. Fin. Swe. Pol. Hun. Cze. Slk. Est. Lat. Lit. Sln. Cyp. Mal. Rom. Bul. EU
Ger. 25 14 0 28 0 0 2 65 0 8 3 14 3 35 0 27 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 232
B/L 318 0 9 21 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 384
Den. 144 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 169
Spn. 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Fra. 1203 466 6 12 0 1 1 189 7 33 0 0 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1930
Gre. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Irl. 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25
Ita. 1 3 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 11
Neth. 374 52 0 2 10 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 451
Por. 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
U.K. 313 18 14 0 127 0 4 0 127 0 0 7 24 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 660
Aust. 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 69
Fin. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Swed. 1 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
Pol. 247 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 275
Hun. 380 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 113 0 0 5 10 162 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 698
Cz.R. 209 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 15 16 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 270
Slk. 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 0 0 31 261 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 404
Est. 22 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 81
Lat. 55 5 49 3 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 26 3 16 0 0 0 1 42 0 0 0 0 0 204
Lit. 49 32 33 0 1 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 18 0 73 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 263
Sln. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rom. 71 236 0 0 39 2 0 5 115 0 0 3 0 0 2 73 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 555
Bul. 85 45 48 23 117 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 79 476
EU 3534 891 192 50 352 2 5 31 634 7 62 182 116 41 209 371 104 208 1 51 46 3 0 0 102 3 7197

11
Czech exports are expected up 85 kt. However, and Romania (-40 kt), partly offset by higher ferent origins. The forecasts will be amended
we envisage a sharp decline for Romanian ex- import forecasts for the UK (+70 kt) and the during the coming months to reflect the latest
ports to just 145 kt (-410 kt), and Bulgarian Netherlands (+55 kt). These changes have a
available data.
exports to just 185 kt (-290 kt), due to the very downward impact compared with last month
small harvests forecasts for 2012 in these coun- on exports form the central EU countries (-170 N.B: Subscribers to our online “Intra-EU
tries. Lastly, French exports are expected down kt) and from Bulgaria (-35 kt). Trade” web module can consult the full break-
300 kt to 1.63 Mt. These forecasts will be subject to very signifi-
down of intra-EU rapeseed trade (including
We have reduced our intra-EU trade forecast cant variations over the coming months to re-
by 115 kt since last month. This results from flect harvest outcomes in the EU and globally, recorded and projected volumes for each country)
lower import forecasts for Germany (-55 kt) and changes in price spreads between the dif- at our website strategie-grains.com.

World rapeseed market
2011/12: fall in demand too low to prevent lower ending stock — 2012/13:
new expected reduction in world stocks
Sharp rise in world rapeseed crude oil also fell slightly to 102 $ a barrel on evolved in the same manner, and competitive
April 19. spreads are therefore almost unchanged.
prices
As of April 20, the C&F Hamburg rapeseed
Since last month, rapeseed prices have risen price was 661 $/t (+38 $/t since last month).
Ending stock 2011/12 expect-
sharply due to the impact from the soybean The price of Canadian canola rose by about 30
ed down despite lower crush
market and the lower rapeseed production US$/t to around 628 US$/t (after an increase
demand
forecasts for the EU in 2012. The price of of 40 $/t last month). The Canadian price re-
mains therefore close to Global rapeseed availabilities down
Graphic 2.5: world rapeseed prices (US $/t) the C&F Hamburg price 2.7 Mt vs. 2010/11
after having spent much Ending stock 2011/12 is currently estimat-
Ukrainian Rapeseed Fob Odessa of the crop year so far be- ed at 5.7 Mt, down 0.5 Mt compared with
$/t Canadian Canola Fob Vancouver low it (see graphic 2.5). end-2010/11. Carry-in stock is estimated 1.5
Rapeseed Europe Cif Hamburg The price of Australian Mt less than at the start of 2010/11, and world
750
rapeseed was relatively flat rapeseed production is set to decline for the
650 this month at around 490 second consecutive year to 59.1 Mt (-1.2 Mt vs.
US$/t (-2 $/t); Australian 2010/11).
550 export availability remains Since last month, we have increased projected
high, at around 1 Mt, see world production by 0.4 Mt, mostly in India
450 below. (+0.3 Mt) where the harvest has turned out
As last month, Ukrainian better than previously expected. As mentioned
350
and Bulgarian rapeseed last month, the largest falls in rapeseed produc-
250
are no longer quoted for tion compared with last year concern the EU
old crop deliveries. (-1.5 Mt), India (-1.1 Mt), China (-0.6 Mt) and
Apart from Australian the USA (-0.4 Mt). By contrast, production is
rapeseed, the prices of the up sharply in Canada (+1.4 Mt) and Australia
other world origins have (+0.6 Mt). Despite a smaller harvest than last
year in Ukraine, the Black Sea countries in-
Table 2.5 estimated rapeseed balance sheets for creased production by 0.3 Mt overall, this in-
Ukraine, Canada and Australia (July/June) crease mainly in Russia.
Ukraine Canada Australia Global rapeseed supply in 2011/12 is esti-
Mt 10/11 11/12 12/13 10/11 11/12 12/13 10/11 11/12 12/13 mated down 2.7 Mt in 2011/12 compared
carry-in stocks 0,0 0,0 0.1 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.5 with 2010/11 to 65.3 Mt (+0.4 Mt compared
production 1,5 1,4 0.9 12.8 14.2 14.9 2.4 2.9 2.9 with last month). There is little change this
imports 0,0 0,0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 month to our crush demand estimate, which is
exports 1,4 1,2 0.9 7.1 8.0 7.6 1.5 2.2 2.1 expected down 2.4 Mt at the global level com-
consumption 0,1 0,1 0.1 6.4 6.8 7.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 pared with last year, with reductions of 1.5 Mt
carry-out st. 0,0 0,1 0.1 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 in India, 1 Mt in the EU, 250 kt in China, 230
source: Stratégie grains (based on various sources) kt in Japan, 125 kt in Turkey, and 175 kt in the

12
USA. These falls are linked to smaller harvests than in 2010/11 in China (+0.7 Mt), the EU Table 2.6: world rapeseed/canola
(China, India, EU, USA), or lower imports (+0.4 Mt), the USA (+0.2 Mt due to smaller balance sheet (July/June)
(Japan, Turkey). Crush demand is expected up harvest) and Pakistan (+0.1 Mt). Several coun- Mt 10/11 11/12 12/13
in Canada (+0.4 Mt compared with 2010/11) tries will import less than in 2010/11, notably carry-in stocks 7.8 6.2 5.4
due to the larger harvest. Rapeseed usage is also Japan (-0.2 Mt), Mexico (-0.1 Mt) and Turkey production 60.3 59.1 60.2
expected up in Russia (+0.2 Mt). (-0.1 Mt). These falls will be offset by increased trade 10.7 11.9 11.2
Compared with last month, we have increased usage of other oilseeds that are currently cheap- consumption 61.8 59.9 60.7
our estimates for crush demand by 0.2 Mt with er, or by a decline in total oilseed usage. of which feed 2.4 2.9 2.6
carry-out st. 6.2 5.4 4.9
India (+0.3 Mt in line with larger harvest),
Japan (+250 kt) and China (+100 kt); these World market set to remain tight stocks-to-use ratio 10% 9% 8%

increases are partly offset by reductions in other We estimate global rapeseed ending stock
at 5.4 Mt, which equals just 9 % of total an- source: Stratégie grains (based on various sources)
countries.
Demand for rapeseed for human/indus- nual demand (compared with 10.1 % at end-
2010/11 and 12.8 % at end-2009/10). The kha in Canada, and +100 kha in Australia) to
trial usages in 2011/12 is estimated at 57 Mt reflect the latest available statistics and/or price
(+0.2 Mt compared with last month); it is set percentage has fallen slightly since last month
(-0.3 %), and this situation should support increases.
to be lower than last year in most parts of the The increase compared with last year mostly
world. prices until the end of the crop year. The out-
look therefore remains tight. The sharp fall in relates to production growth in India (+1.2
Animal feed and other usages are still forecast Mt) and China (+0.8 Mt), due to an improve-
to increase (+0.5 Mt compared with 2010/11) demand will not be severe enough to prevent
a decrease in stock. This is bullish in terms of ment in yields after last year’s disappointing
to 2.9 Mt, mostly due to increased harvest in results. We also forecast harvest increases for
Canada. prices, which will need to keep rising in order
to maintain the squeeze on crush demand. In Canada (+0.7 Mt) and the USA (+0.4 Mt);
World trade revised up addition, rapeseed prices could be subject to due to increased area; meanwhile production
Our trade estimates now include customs sta- further bullish influence from the very tight is expected stable in Australia (acreage higher
tistics for February 2012 for Ukraine, Canada, soybean market, and the markets for crushed than last year but yields lower following the
Australia, USA and EU. World rapeseed trade seed products (oils and meals): if the prices for exceptional results of 2011/12). By contrast,
in 2010/11 is now estimated at 11.8 Mt, up these products increased, the price of seeds will production is set to fall in the EU (see Produc-
more than 1 Mt compared with 2010/11. have to increase similarly in order to keep pres- tion) and the Black Sea (-0.5 Mt), especially in
Since last month we have increased our sure on margins. Rape oil and rape meal prices Ukraine, where the harvest is expected at less
world trade forecast by 0.5 Mt; this increase will also be influenced by the global soybean than 1 Mt.
concerns Canadian exports only. As of Febru- market (see EU Soybean – World Market) and Global opening stock is expected down 0.8 Mt
ary 29, Canada had already exported 6.4 Mt of by the world economic conditions in the com- compared with 2011/12: the projected rise in
rapeseed, including 1 Mt in January and 800 ing months. The price of crude oil price will global rapeseed availabilities is therefore small
kt in February. We forecast that it will ship a remain a key factor, with propensity to change (+0.3 Mt). We estimate global rapeseed sup-
further 1.6 Mt before the end of the crop year, sharply in response to geopolitical considera- ply at 65.6 Mt, down 1.1 Mt compared with
with the pace of exports slowing (to around tions in the Middle East. last month.
400 kt per month). The price of Canadian Demand is expected up 0.8 Mt compared
canola has effectively risen sharply since Febru- Very tight outlook for with 2011/12 (+1.1 Mt for crush and human
ary, which should reduce demand for Cana- consumption and -0.3 Mt in animal feeds): the
2012/13
dian canola. However, given the high volume growth in rapeseed crush mostly concerns In-
of seeds already shipped, we have increased our World production set to increase dia and China (+1.1 Mt and +0.8 Mt respec-
estimate this month. slightly in 2012 tively, due to better harvests). Crush demand
The higher forecast for Canadian exports im- We estimate world rapeseed production in is also expected up in the Black Sea countries
pacts on import volumes for Japan (+280 kt), 2012/13 at 60.2 Mt, up 1.15 Mt compared (+0.1 Mt in Russia) and Canada (+0.2 Mt).
China (+100 kt), Mexico (+70 kt), Pakistan with 2011/12. We have reduced this harvest Demand for rapeseed in animal feeds is expect-
and Bangladesh (+50 kt each). forecast by 1 Mt since last month, reflecting ed to decrease slightly, mainly in the EU (due to
Australian exports are unchanged at 2.2 Mt the smaller expected harvests in the EU (-1.5 lower production).
(1.17 Mt shipped as of February 29). Mt) and Ukraine (-250 kt), where winter Thus for the end of 2012/13, we forecast a
Exports are expected higher than in losses were higher than previously expected, further reduction in global rapeseed stock
2010/11 from Canada (+0.9 Mt), Australia and where spring rape plantings are lower than by around 0.5 Mt to just 4.9 Mt or 8.2% of
(+0.7 Mt), and Russia (+0.2 Mt). By con- previously envisaged due to the late arrival of annual global demand (compared with 5.1 Mt
trast, we forecast lower export volumes than spring this year. These reductions are partly or 8.3 % estimated last month). This is even
in 2010/11 from Ukraine (-0.27 Mt), the EU offset by increased production forecasts for lower than the previous record low level at end-
(-0.1 Mt, due to lower availabilities in Romania Canada (+500 kt) and Australia (+200 kt): 2007/08 (8.4% of annual demand). The out-
and Bulgaria). Imports are expected higher acreage in these countries estimated up (+235 look is therefore extremely tight; this should

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