This document provides an overview of advanced MLB tournament strategy, focusing on pitcher selection, hitter selection, and lineup construction. It discusses leveraging key stats, Vegas odds, weather, and ballpark factors to identify pitchers and hitters with high ceilings. It also covers concepts like stacking teams, predicting ownership, using salary distribution effectively, and entering multiple lineups to improve odds of a high finishing percentile. The goal is to build lineups that have the best chance of scoring far above opponents to win tournaments.

1. Course 3: MLB Strategy
Advanced Tournament Strategy
www.rotoql.com
1

2. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Lesson Overview
Desired outcome is to create a lineup with a high ceiling. We can
accomplish this through the following levers:
I. Pitcher selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors
II. Hitter selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors
III. Lineup construction: stacking, multiple lineups, using an optimizer
2

3. I. Pitcher Selection
3

4. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Pitcher Selection: Key Elements
Stat Notes
Vegas Data Team expected runs, win probability
wOBA Against Larger sample size is more indicative
Strikeouts / Opp. K/9, K/9 opposition
Ballpark/Weather Park factors, wind, avoid any chance of rain
Pitch Count Also combined with innings pitched
4

5. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Pitcher Selection: Key Stats
Source: Fantasy Labs
5

6. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Pitcher Selection: Using Vegas
Stat Notes
Team Totals Totals take into account many variables including weather, park factors etc..
Player Props They are not always accurate but can provide a general estimate
First 5 Innings Help eliminate bullpen influence
6

7. II. Hitter Selection
7

8. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Hitter Selection: Key Elements
Stat Notes
Coors Field Largest run and HR rate
Batting Order Top of order tends to be high owned
Home Run Ability High power = high ceiling
Handedness Splits Matchup wOBA by RotoQL
Temperature/Wind Pay less attention to rain-outs
8

9. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Hitter Selection: Using Vegas
Stat Notes
Team Expected Runs Suggest predicted runs scored
Over/Under Best games with high predicted FPTs
Player Props Usually don’t get released until the day of game
9

10. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
DK Fantasy Points vs Batting Order
Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy
10

11. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Average Batting by Split
Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy
11

12. www.rotoql.com
Source: Sports Baseball America
www.rotoql.com
Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors
12

13. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors
13

14. III. Lineup Construction
14

15. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Tournament Lineup Construction: Key Elements
Stat Notes
Salary Distribution FanDuel vs. DraftKings differences
Chalk Players “Obvious” favorites
Predicting Ownership Recent performance, matchup, value among factors
Stacking High predicted ceiling
Multiple Lineups Be aware of the exposure risks
15

16. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Pitcher Selection: Salary Distribution
Source: Daily Roto
16

17. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Chalk Players
What are chalk players?
● “Obvious” favorites that are highly owned and likely to perform well
● If 7 out of 10 lineups in a tournament have Bryce Harper, he would be considered to be
70% owned
How do chalk players affect tournament lineups?
● Want to include chalk in certain situations
Example:
○ Kershaw’s probability to be a top scoring pitcher is 80%
○ His projected ownership is 60%
○ Result: Play him
● Note: May not want to go all chalk if your lineup is a duplicate, as that is a huge loss in
EV
17

18. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Predicting Ownership
Source: DFS Mancave
18

19. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Stacking
Examples:
● Split Stacks - 5 v 3, 4 v 4
● Mini Stacks - 4 v 3, 3 v 3, etc.
● Popular - Coors Stacks, Batting 1-5 spots
● Value Stacks - Less Heralded Offenses
Keep in Mind
● Stack the Maximum
● More Valuable on FanDuel - RBI scoring
● Be Mindful of % Total Salary
DraftKings FanDuel
Allowed Stack Size Up to 5 players Up to 4 players
19

20. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Stack Size vs Outcome [DraftKings]
Source: DraftKings Playbook
20

21. www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
The Case for Multiple Tournament Lineups
Source: Chris Vox & Thomas Fuller via All In Mag
Percentile Finish (FD = blue, DK= red)
Number of
Lineups
21