1. GUIDED BY:
PROF. MRS. ARCHANA CHOUDHARY

9. A panoramic view of Ravishankar Sagar Reservoir, Chhattisgarh

10. june july august septmbr october november decembe
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Months
InflowinMm3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1946
y = 94*z5 - 1.7e+002*z4 - 1.6e+002*z3 + 3.9e+002*z2 - 1.2e+002*z - 25
where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow (1,1:12)
Best fitted curve

11. JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTM OCTBR NOVMB DECMB
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Months
InflowinMm3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1947
y = - 3.7e+002*z7
+ 1.1e+002*z6
+ 1.6e+003*z5
- 5.5e+002*z4
- 1.8e+003*z3
+
7.2e+002*z2
+ 3.3e+002*z - 64
where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
INFLOW(1,1:12)
BEST FITTED CURVE

12. june july august septmbr octobr novmbr decmb
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Months
InflowinMm3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1948
y = - 1.8e+002*z7 - 2.1*z6 + 8.6e+002*z5 - 1.7e+002*z4 - 1.1e+003*z3 + 4.4e+002*z2 + 1.7e+002*z - 33
where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow(1,1:12)
Best fitted curve

13. june july august september october november decemb
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Months
InflowinMm3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1949
y = - 1.9*z7 + 93*z6 - 35*z5 - 3.9e+002*z4 + 2.1e+002*z3 + 4e+002*z2 - 2.9e+002*z + 24
where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow (1,1:12)
Best fitted curve

14. june july august septmbr octobr novem decmbr
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Months
InflowinMm3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1950
y = - 27*z7 - 69*z6 + 2.5e+002*z5 + 97*z4 - 4.7e+002*z3 +
1.6e+002*z2 + 62*z - 13
where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow (1,1:12)
Best fitted curve

15. june july august septmbr octobr novmbr decmbr
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Months
InflowinMm3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1951
y = 3.5e+002*z10 + 68*z9 - 2e+003*z8 - 1.5e+002*z7 + 3.9e+003*z6 -
82*z5 - 3e+003*z4 + 1.9e+002*z3 + 8.9e+002*z2 - 1.6e+002*z - 16
where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
inflow(1,1:12)
Best fitted curve

16. JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTMBR OCTOBR NOVEMBR DECMB
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Months
InflowinMm3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR 1952
y = - 2e+002*z4 + 1.6e+002*z3 + 4.8e+002*z2 - 4e+002*z + 8.5
where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow(1,1:12)
Best fitted curve

17. june july august septmbr octobr novem decmbr
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Months
InflowinMm3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1953
y = - 4.2e+002*z7 + 1.3e+002*z6 + 1.8e+003*z5 - 6.6e+002*z4 - 2e+003*z3 + 8.7e+002*z2 + 3.2e+002*z - 61
where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow(1,1:12)
Best fitted curve

18. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Months
InflowinMm3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1954
y = - 22*z5 - 1.4e+002*z4 + 2e+002*z3 + 2.9e+002*z2 - 3.5e+002*z + 28
where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow (1,1:12)
Best fitted curve

19. june july august septembr october november decmb
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Months
InflowinMm3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1955
y = - 19*z5 - 1.3e+002*z4 + 2e+002*z3 + 2.9e+002*z2 - 3.8e+002*z + 56
where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow(1,1:12)
Best fitted curve

20. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Year
inflowinMm3
Comparison Between Actual inflow and Forecasted inflow for the month of July
Actual Inflow
Forecasted Inflow

21. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Comparison between actual inflow and forecasted inflow for the month of August
Year
Inflowinmm3
Actual inflow
Forecasted Inflow

22. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Comparison between actual inflow and forecasted inflow for the month of September
Year
inflowinmm3
Actual inflow
Forecasted inflow

23. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Comparison between actual inflow and forecasted inflow for month ofoctober
Year
inflowinMm3
Actual inflow
Forecasted inflow

24. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
forecasting using radial basis for the month of july
year
InflowinMm3
actual inflow
forecasted inflow

25. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
forecasting using radial basis function for the month of august
years
inflowinMm3
actual inflow
forecasted inflow

26. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 199
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
forecasting using radial basis for the month of september
year
inflowinMm3
actual inflow
forecasted inflow

27. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 199
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
forecasting using radial basis for the month of october
year
inflowinMm3
actual inflow
forecasted inflow

28. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Year
InflowinMm3
Forecasting curve for June
y = - 18*z10
+ 11*z9
+ 1.3e+002*z8
- 70*z7
- 3.2e+002*z6
+ 1.4e+002*z5
+ 3.2e+002*z4
- 1e+002*z3
- 1e+002*z2
+
15*z + 39
where z = (x - 26)/15
Inflow(1:50,1)
Best fitted curve

29. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Year
InflowinMm3
Forecasted curve for July
y = - 18*z10 + 11*z9 + 1.3e+002*z8 - 70*z7 - 3.2e+002*z6 + 1.4e+002*z5 + 3.2e+002*z4 - 1e+002*z3 - 1e+002*z2 +
15*z + 39
where z = (x - 26)/15
Inflow(1:50,1)
Best Fitted Curve

30. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Year
Inflowinmm3
Forecasted curve for August
y = - 4.4*z10 + 4.2*z9 - 38*z8 - 99*z7 + 3.9e+002*z6 + 3.5e+002*z5 - 9.3e+002*z4 - 3.4e+002*z3 + 6.8e+002*z2 + 24*z +
3.3e+002
where z = (x - 26)/15
Inflow
Best fitted curve

31. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Year
InflowinMm3
Forecasted curve for September
y = 45*z10 - 14*z9 - 3.4e+002*z8 + 53*z7 + 9.5e+002*z6 + 19*z5 - 1.3e+003*z4 - 1.8e+002*z3 + 7.9e+002*z2 + 56*z +
1.3e+002
where z = (x - 26)/15
Inflow
Best Fitted curve

32. 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Year
InflowinMm3
Forecasting curve for October
y = - 23*z10 + 88*z9 + 1.9e+002*z8 - 5.4e+002*z7 - 5.7e+002*z6 + 1.1e+003*z5 + 7.1e+002*z4 - 7.2e+002*z3 -
3e+002*z2 + 92*z + 1.1e+002
where z = (x - 26)/15
Inflow
Best Fitted curve

33.  Looking precisely to the above discussion we can conclude that the water is
an important natural resource inflow in the being the accumulation of water
into the reservoir and an important part of hydrologic cycle should be
considered by any irrigation project and its of prime important which should
be done accurately .
 The various techniques involved in the estimations of inflow suggested that
the ANN is the best mostly amongst all the others for calculating inflow .
 This concept has already been used for the rain fall –run off process .