How to focus the production resources on the products with the highest potential. Our client considered purchasing a new production line – an improved capacity one, able to produce different types of new products to be added to the current portfolio.

1. Future Products Portfolio
case study
How to focus the production resources on the products with the highest
potential.

2. The Challenge
Our client considered purchasing a new production line – an improved capacity one, able to
produce different types of new products to be added to the current portfolio.
In order to focus its production resources on the products with the highest potential, the company
wanted to find out which are the most promising products in the future portfolio.
As long as the company was already well established in its category and markets, the possible
cannibalization was also a topic of extreme interest and importance.
In short, the key question behind this tough business challenge was: “What combination of product
types in our portfolio would generate the highest possible purchase interest among the widest
possible audience at lowest possible production cost?”

3. The Approach
We designed and ran a quantitative survey, product test in central locations.
Six different new product types (which could be produced by the new production line) were tested.
We ran TURF analysis to answer the specific question.

4. The Outcome
Our research revealed that the optimal “additional” portfolio consists of 3 product types only.
Adding a fourth product type would not increase neither the appeal, nor the reach of the portfolio
enough to justify the increased production cost.
As long as there were two possible sets of an optimal additional 3-product-types-portfolio, we
complemented the research with Source of Volume analysis, which revealed significantly lower
levels of cannibalization for one of the combinations – and thus resolved our client’s issue
completely.

5. How does TURF Analysis Work: THE ANALYSIS
How many items maximize the appeal?
5
WE ASK A PURCHASE INTENT QUESTION FOR EACH ITEM AND COUNT THE “DEFINITELY WOULD BUY” ANSWER ONLY:
20%
ITEM 1
37%
ITEM 2 65%ITEM 3
THEN WE LOOK AT THE TOTAL UNDUPLICATED PURCHASE INTEREST (AGAIN “DEFINITELY WOULD BUY” ANSWERS ONLY):
TOTAL UNDUPLICATED SCORE IF 2 ITEMS: 87% = (65% + 37%) - 15%
ITEM 3 UNDUPLICATED SCORE
65% 37%
ITEM 2 UNDUPLICATED SCORE
ITEMS 2 & 3 DUPLICATED SCORE
TOTAL UNDUPLICATED SCORE IF 3 ITEMS: 90% = (65% + 37% + 20%) - 32%
ITEM 3 UNDUPLICATED SCORE
65% 37%
ITEM 2 UNDUPLICATED SCORE
ITEMS 1, 2 & 3 DUPLICATED SCORE
20%
ITEM 1 UNDUPLICATED SCORE
15%
32%

6. 48%
64%
73%
79%
83% 84%
One Product Portfolio Two Products Portfolio Three Products Portfolio Four Products Portfolio Five Products Portfolio Six Products Portfolio
TURF Analysis Output: HOW MANY PRODUCT TO INCLUDE?
Share of target group consumers, who are interested in the new portfolio
Point of saturation, after which the increased new portfolio reach
cannot justify the increased production costs:

7. TURF Analysis Output – WHICH EXACTLY PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE?
Top Combinations of Three Products
Product E Product C
Product E Product F
Product E Product F
Product E Product C
Product E Product B
Product E Product F
Product E Product D
Product E Product F
Product B Product F
Product E Product D 65%
66%
66%
68%
70%
71%
71%
71%
73%
73%
Reach % of Total Sample
34%
35%
16%
34%
25%
28%
31%
30%
30%
30%
50%
35%
53%
51%
47%
43%
45%
44%
44%
46%
16%
31%
31%
16%
28%
29%
24%
26%
26%
24%
Shapley Value (Contribution) Top 10 Combinations
Product A
Product A
Product B
Product B
Product A
Product C
Product A
Product D
Product A
Product B

8. TURF Analysis Output – MARKET SIMULTION
Volume Potential & Source of Volume
33%
11%
11%
3%
2%
2%
12%
5%
8%
5%
1%
6%
4%
3%
2%
4%
5%
2%
14%
Current Market Volume Shares Future Market Volume Shares, % change
+
NEW PRODUCTS
Sources of Volume
Combination 1: Product A + Product E + Product C
42%
15%
13%
7%
6%
1%
7%
3%
5%
6%
2%
4%
6%
4%
5%
2%
3%
2%
10%
NET Client
Brand 1
Brand 2
Brand 3
Brand 4
Brand 5
Brand 6
Brand 7
Brand 8
Brand 9
Brand 10
Brand 11
Brand 14
Brand 15
Brand 16
Brand 17
Brand 18
Brand 21
Other brand
NET NEW PORTFOLIO
17%
-3%
-3%
-1%
-1%
0%
-3%
-1%
-2%
-1%
0%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-4%
26%

9. LOGO Market Research and Consulting Ltd.
http://www.logo-mrc.com/
info@logo-mrc.com
Thank you!
36, Dragan Tzankov Blvd.
WTC Interpred, office А-801
Sofia, Bulgaria