Beyond Optimism/Beyond Pessimism: Plotting the Future

1. Facing the Fold
Jay Ogilvy
Writing the Future
WDC March 20, 2010

2. Overview
• The eclipse of utopia
• Four stances toward historical 6me and
futurity
• Facing the fold
• Construc6ng scenarios
• Communica6ng scenarios
• The scenaric stance

3. Stances toward 6me and futurity
• Tradi6onal, cyclical, 6me as “the moving
image of eternity”
• Modernity, progressive, op6mis6c
• Postmodernism, pessimis6c, decline
• A fourth turning, facing the fold, a scenaric
stance

4. Model of Aggression in Dogs
Growling
C
Attacking
B
Behavior
Surface Avoiding
Retreating
A
Behavior
Control C RAG
E
Surface
Bifurcation
Set
A B

5. Facing the Fold
Improvement
C
Utopia
B
Behavior
Surface
Decline
Disaster A
Behavior
Control C
Optim
ism
Surface
Bifurcation
Set
A B

7. “There is no
reason for any
individual to have
a computer in
their home.”
—Ken Olsen,
president of DEC, 1977

8. “Internal sales
forecast for PCs for
the 1980s: 295,000.
Actual sales for PCs
in the 1980s: over
25,000,000.”
—IBM, 1979

9. “Anyone who thinks
the ANC is going to
run South Africa is
living in cloud
cuckoo land.”
—Margaret Thatcher, 1987

10. Who would have guessed that . . .
• Apartheid would end in South Africa
• Oil prices would drop in 1986
• The Cold War would end
• Iraq would raid Kuwait

11. What Are Scenarios?
• Scenarios are devices for ordering one’s
percep6ons about alterna6ve environments in
which one’s decisions might be played out.
Their power comes from being focused.
• Effec6ve scenarios are always “customized to
context.”

12. Developing Scenarios
 Focal issue
 Key factors
 Environmental  Early indicators
forces
 Scenario
logics
 Implica5ons
 Cri5cal and op5ons
uncertain5es
 Scenarios

13. Step Four: Rank Cri6cal Uncertain6es
• Each team member has 25 virtual poker chips
to spend
• Individually allocate chips according to:
X
importance X X
uncertainty

14. Scenarios for healthcare reform

15. Step Six: Tell the Stories
An ancient art form whose relevance and power
is being rediscovered today...
When a manager comes to me, I don’t ask him “What’s the
problem?” I say, “Tell me a story.” That way I find out what
the problem really is. —Avram Goldberg
• An ancient and enduring way of making and communicating meaning
• Underpins many professions—lawyers, historians, politicians…
• Key in business context too—increasingly recognized by, e.g. 3M
• High cognitive and emotional impact, and memorable
• Simplifies complexity
• Blends the familiar with the novel to create fresh perspectives

16. Some Familiar Plots
o Winners and losers
o Crisis and response
o Good news and bad news
o Evolu6onary change
o Revolu6onary change
o Cycles

17. Elements of a Good Story
o Beginning, middle, and end
o Timeless adventure
o Quest
o Coming of age
– Hero departs, experiences
difficulty, performs a deed
or experiences a revela6on,
and is changed somehow
– Denouement, resolu6on

18. The Power of Stories
Preliminary Preliminary
Appetite
Name Species Hair/Fur Age Size Porridge Mattress
Level
Assessment Assessment
Goldi-locks Human Blonde 8 Moderate Petite N/A N/A
Papa Bear Brown 12 High Big Too Hot Too Hard
Mama Bear Tawny 11 Moderate Medium Too Cold Too Soft
Red-
Baby Bear 3 Low Small Just Right Just Right
Brown

19. The Power of Stories
Once upon a time, there was a
little girl named Goldilocks. She
went for a walk in the forest.
Pretty soon, she came upon a
house. She knocked and, when
no one answered, she walked right
in. At the table in the kitchen, there
were three bowls of porridge.
Goldilocks was hungry. She
tasted the porridge from the first
bowl.
“This porridge is too hot!” she
exclaimed…

20. Virtues and advantages of the scenaric stance
• An acute sense of freedom
• Intellectual honesty
• Deliberate intent with a sense of the
stakes
• Emo6onal depth
• A subtle frame of mind

21. Thank you
Jay Ogilvy
j.a.ogilvy@gmail.com