- Miami's tourism economy is forecast to continue expanding through 2018, with total visitors expected to grow from 14.6 million in 2014 to 17.1 million in 2018. - International visitor growth will outpace domestic visitors over this period, with international visitors projected to increase from 7.3 million to 9.1 million. - Total visitor expenditures are anticipated to rise from $23.5 billion in 2014 to $28.4 billion in 2018, increasing the tourism industry's positive economic impact on Miami.

1. Presented by: Bill Anderson
Greater Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau

2. 2
 Miami’s tourism economy will continue to expand over the four-year forecast
horizon.
 After three years of strong recovery through 2012, growth moderated somewhat in
2013 and 2014. We expect a similar pattern of growth in 2015 as the economy
continues its pace of recovery.
 Growth in international visitor volume will outpace that of domestic visitors over
the forecast horizon, and key Latin American markets will contribute to visitation
growth.
 Based on complete visitation data for 2013, slightly more international visitors
arrived in Miami than domestic visitors. Based on visitation through Q3 2014, we
expect domestic visitation to slightly outpace international visitation in 2014.
 The forecast is based on several fundamental assumptions:
◦ The US economy is showing strong fundamentals
◦ Global economic growth is set to accelerate modestly in 2015
◦ The US travel sector has seriously outperformed and volumes are anticipated
to slow

3. 3
 Between 2009 and 2014, visits to
Miami have grown by an average
of 532,000 per year.
 A robust recovery has brought
Miami visitation to an all-time high
of 14.2 million in 2013.
 In 2014, 14.6 million visitors are
expected to arrive in Miami,
representing an expansion of 2.7%
over 2013
 Growth will average 4.0% between
2015 and 2018, when Miami will
host 17.1 million visitors.
 The current forecast for 2015 represents a very slight upgrade in overall visitation
compared to our November 2014 forecast. The upgrade is primarily attributable to
strong US economic fundamentals and moderate global growth in 2015..
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14F 15F 16F 17F 18F
Total Visitorsr to Miami by Market Segment
Millions
Sources: GMCVB, Tourism Economics
17.1
15.115.7 16.4
14.6

5. 5
Recent performance
 Recovery in Miami’s tourism industry has
been steady.
 Since the trough in 2009, overall visitation
has grown 4.5% annually through 2013.
 Visitation reached a new peak of 14.6
million in 2014.
 In 2013, 49% of these visitors came from
domestic markets and 51% from
international markets.
 In 2014, total domestic visitors (7.30
million) exceeded international overnight
visitors (7.29 million)
 Miami’s key domestic markets were New
York, Chicago, and Philadelphia. Key
international markets included Brazil,
Canada, and Germany
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
11
12
13
14
15
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14F
Total volume, mils (L)
% ch (R)
Steady Volume Growth Since 2009
Sources: GMCVB, Tourism Economics

6. 6
Recent performance: the hotel market
 The hotel markets is tightening, driven by both demand growth and relatively
restrained supply. These supply and demand fundamentals are boosting
occupancy and room rates.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Occ %, ppt change (L)
ADR, % ch year ago (R)
...and rising occupancy drives prices
Sources: STR, Tourism Economics
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Room supply
Room demand
Demand growth is outpacing supply...
Sources: STR, Tourism Economics
12-month moving sum, indexed, January 2006=100

8. 8
 Miami’s tourism performance is determined by economic conditions in its key
source markets, investment in its tourism infrastructure, and its ability to
market itself as a destination.
 Factors considered in the forecast were production, income, housing and
labor market conditions in key domestic and international source markets.
 Indicators included in the analysis for source markets were:
◦ Gross domestic product
◦ Personal income growth
◦ Wage and salary income growth
◦ Consumption spending
◦ The level of employment and the unemployment rate

9. 9
Growth in Miami visitors by segment
 International visitation is expected to outpace domestic visitor growth in
2015 and over the forecast horizon.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14F 15F 16F 17F 18F
Total Visitors
Domestic overnight
International
Miami Visitor Forecast by Market Segment
Annual % change
Sources: GMCVB, Tourism Economics

10. 10
International visitor volume to exceed domestic
 In 2013, more than half of all visitors came from international markets, and
this share is forecast to increase to 53%, or 9.1 million visits, by 2018.
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14F 15F 16F 17F 18F
Domestic overnight
International
Miami Visitor by Market Segment
Share of total, %
Sources: GMCVB, Tourism Economics

11. 11
Total visitor expenditures
 Visitor expenditures totaled $21.8 billion in 2012 and will have risen to $22.6
billion in 2013 and $23.5 billion in 2014 once complete data are available. Over
the forecast horizon, visitor expenditures are expected to increase 5.4% in 2015
and 5.1% in 2016. By 2018, total visitor expenditure will amount to an estimated
$28.4 billion.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
08 09 10 11 12 13 14F 15F 16F 17F 18F
Visitor expenditures, $billions (L)
% ch (R)
Vistor Expenditures Forecast
Sources: GMCVB, Tourism Economics

12. 12
Tightening in the hotel market will continue
 Similar to previous forecasts, growth in demand is expected to exceed
supply growth for most of the forecast horizon, and rising occupancy rates
will drive price growth.
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Room supply
Room demand
Demand growth is outpacing supply...
Sources: STR, Tourism Economics
12-month moving sum, indexed, January 2006=100
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Occ %, ppt change (L)
ADR, % ch year ago (R)
...and rising occupancy drives prices
Sources: STR, Tourism Economics

14. 14
 Global growth set to accelerate modestly in 2015
 The US economy: strong fundamentals, but one key risk
is housing activity
 Eurozone: On the mend, but one shock away from…
 Japan: Abe the archer still adjusting his arrows…
 China: Is growth closer to 5-6%? Should we buckle up?
 Brazil: Can post-election “reset” solve structural issues?

15. 15
 Last GDP reading was strong…can this be sustained?
 Employment growing strongly
 Consumers are feeling more cheerful
 Consumer spending to bounce back into 2015
 Key domestic risk is housing activity
 Orders and shipments continue to grow strongly
 Capital expenditures on the mend
 Trade contribution to be neutral in 2015

16. 16
16
2.2% 3.0%
2.3% 2.2%

17. 17
Following a difficult 2014 for Latin America, the economic outlook
for 2015 is one of diminishing expectations and mediocre
prospects.
Growth is weak, below potential, but increasingly diverging.
Inflation is on the rise and policy complacency risks are high.
We expect Mexico, Colombia, and Peru will outperform; Brazil will
be challenged, while Argentina and Venezuela will struggle in
failure.
On the strategy side, we still opportunities in some local markets,
and compelling external debt possibilities across the more
fundamentally sound credits.

18. 18
3.5
1.3
2.1
3.9
1.4 1.5
2.9
2.6
2.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004-13 2014 2015
Latin America EMEA World
Source: Oxford Economics
% year
Regional comparison: GDP growth forecasts We forecast GDP growth of just 1.3%
this year
 This is half of what we expected in
January!
 Who are the culprits?
 Everyone! We have downgraded our
forecasts for all big economies in
Latin America since the start of the
year.
 But outlook will improve (modestly) in
2015!

19. 19
-1.0
0.9
1.2
2.1
3.0
3.4
4.6
4.8
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Venezuela
Brazil
Argentina
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Colombia
Peru
Source: Oxford Economics % year
Latin America: GDP growth forecast for 2015
 Pacific Alliance countries will outperform…
 …while Brazil will continue to drift…
 …and Argentina and Venezuela should
continue to struggle
 (positive growth in Argentina is highly
suspicious as data reporting there is not
very transparent…)

21. 21
Forecast >>>>
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Visitors, millions 12.6 13.4 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.1
Domestic overnight 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.0
International 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.5 9.1
Total Visitor Expenditures, $ billions 18.8 20.7 21.8 22.6 23.5 24.7 26.0 27.1 28.4
Hotel sector metrics
Average daily rate, $ 144.1 153.5 163.7 174.9 184.0 197.0 206.7 210.9 214.5
Occupancy rate, % 70.4 75.6 76.4 77.5 78.4 80.5 80.6 79.9 79.2
Supply, millions of room nights 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.5 19.4 20.2
Demand, millions of room nights 12.0 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.0
RevPar, $ 101.5 116.1 125.1 135.5 144.2 158.5 166.6 168.5 169.9
Miami Visitor Forecast Summary Table

22. 22
Forecast >>>>
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Visitors, % 6.7 3.5 2.2 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.4
Domestic overnight 6.2 1.8 0.2 3.1 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.6
International 7.2 5.2 4.4 2.3 4.4 5.7 6.1 6.0
Total Visitor Expenditures, % 10.1 5.4 3.6 3.8 5.4 5.1 4.4 4.4
Hotel sector metrics
Average daily rate, % 6.6 6.6 6.8 5.2 7.1 4.9 2.0 1.7
Occupancy rate, ppt change 5.2 0.8 1.1 0.9 2.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.7
Supply, % 1.8 1.2 0.6 1.8 0.7 2.5 4.7 4.6
Demand, % 9.2 2.3 2.0 2.9 3.4 2.7 3.7 3.6
RevPar, % 14.4 7.8 8.4 6.4 9.9 5.1 1.1 0.8
Miami Visitor Forecast Summary Table, Change

23. 23
Comparison to Previous Forecast (Levels)
Forecast >>>>
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Visitors, millions - (0.00) (0.10) (0.09) (0.09) (0.07) (0.05)
Domestic overnight - (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.07
International - - (0.10) (0.09) (0.10) (0.11) (0.12)
Total Visitor Expenditures, $ billions - - (0.16) 0.21 0.29 0.15 0.11
Hotel sector metrics
Average daily rate, $ 0.00 0.00 0.15 -1.31 0.40 0.71 -0.04
Occupancy rate, % 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02
Supply, millions of room nights 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.09
Demand, millions of room nights 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.07 -0.10 -0.15 -0.23
RevPar, $ 0.00 0.00 -0.80 -2.76 3.62 3.62 4.01
Miami Visitor Forecast - Comparison to Previous Forecast (Levels)

24. 24
Comparison to Previous Forecast (% Change)
Forecast >>>>
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Visitors, % 0.0 0.0 -0.70% 0.10% 0.01% 0.14% 0.15%
Domestic overnight 0.0 0.00% -0.06% 0.11% 0.09% 0.37% 0.34%
International 0.0 0.00% -1.34% 0.10% -0.05% -0.05% 0.01%
Total Visitor Expenditures, % 0.0 0.00% -0.71% 1.61% 0.30% -0.60% -0.20%
Hotel sector metrics
Average daily rate, % 0.0 0.00% 0.09% -0.80% 0.89% 0.15% -0.36%
Occupancy rate, ppt change 0.0 0.00% -0.65% -0.44% 3.02% -0.27% 0.56%
Supply, % 0.0 0.00% 0.53% -0.53% 0.00% 0.36% 0.10%
Demand, % 0.0 0.00% -0.12% 0.62% -1.21% -0.29% -0.51%
RevPar, % 0.0 0.00% -0.59% -1.30% 4.05% -0.02% 0.22%
Miami Visitor Forecast - Comparison to Previous Forecast (%)

25. 25 ■25
■New Air Service at MIA 2014 (Q1 & 2)
Airline Originating City Start Date
TAM Belem, Brazil February 2, 2014
JetairFly Brussels, Belgium April 4, 2014
InselAir Aruba Oranjestad, Aruba April 11, 2014
BoA Boliviana de
Aviacion
Santa Cruz, Bolivia May 24, 2014
XL Airways Paris, France May 25, 2014
AirEuropa Madrid, Spain May 29, 2014
TAM Fortaleza, Brazil May 31, 2014
Qatar Airways Doha, Qatar June 10, 2014

26. 26 ■26