The document discusses the stock market crash of 2008 in India when the SENSEX fell from over 20,000 to under 17,000 in a month, and how investors since then have played the waiting game by selling on rises and moving money out of equity and into debt and gold. It argues the next bull market is coming as the economic cycle bottoms out, but many investors still wait for the perfect time to invest rather than starting now and that success depends more on mindset than trying to time the market perfectly.

1. A presentation by

2. January 12, 2008…
The BSE installed this statue outside their building.
SENSEX on January 12, 2008: 20827.45
SENSEX on January 22, 2008: 16729.94
THE SENSEX CRASHED

3. What went wrong in 2008?
• Investors overpaid – SENSEX P/E was 28.57
• Select sectors were very overvalued –
Power, Infrastructure, Capital goods.
• Overcrowding of investments make the
markets even more expensive.
• Herd mentality was everywhere. Nobody sold
equity.

4. 2008-2012: What have investors done?
• Investors played the waiting game.
• With every rise, they sold equity.
• No new investments have been made.
• Money moved from equity to debt.
• Equity exposure is dropping.

5. What are investors doing now?
• Money is moving from equity to other
overvalued assets such as gold and real estate.
• Nobody is buying equity and everybody is
buying gold and real estate

6. The next Bull Run…?
• Bull runs happen when economic cycles move from the
bottom to the top.
• The move to the top has already begun.
• 5 factors hold the key – exchange rate, inflation, interest
rates, liquidity and commodity prices.
• When each of these factors turn in favour, investment
inflows will keep increasing.
• Continuous investment inflows will lead to a Bull Market.
• The point investors need to accept – India’s economic cycle
has bottomed out.
• Will there be another Bull Run? Most certainly.

7. Playing it right – The next Bull market
• Investors waste too much time trying to know
when to begin
• Start somewhere – you need to begin now
• Take stock – Yesterday’s stars may be
tomorrow’s laggards
• Get your strategy in place – knowhow is
everything
• Get your act going – Buy tomorrow’s winners.

8. The Mind Factor
• What stops investors from doing the right thing?
• The wait for the perfect moment.
• The best time to begin is when fear is all around
• As fear keeps receding, keep investing
• Don’t wait for the return of maximum fear.
• Maximum fear is not an annual event
• Investment success is always won or lost in one’s
own mind.

9. to the way