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IRI
Weekly News update
Your window on the latest trends
in Packaged Groceries
Stephen Hall
Friday 11th November
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
• Strong year for Lincolnshire Co-op, boosted by sales of local food
• Morrisons launches Christmas Ad campaign; fake John Lewis advert fools thousands
• Big 4 reduce new store expansion by two thirds
• Marks and Spencer to close 60 stores and focus on food
• Retail sector sees strongest growth since January
• Consumer appetite for Black Friday overestimated
• Sainsbury's bullish about HRG opportunity despite H1 profits fall
• Poundland trials Pep & Co product in stores
• Aldi takes on upmarket retailers with new luxury Christmas hampers
• Amazon starts offering one-hour delivery from local shops in London
• Weaker pound and more promotions impacts profits at Halfords
• Dairy Crest reports strong rise in half year profits
• Online retail sales growth running ahead of expectations
• Coty reports drop in sales
• John Lewis 2016 Christmas advert arrives
• Nisa signs supply agreement with McColl’s
• Henkel sales reach new high of €4.7bn with solid beauty growth
• Amazon UK has said it is gearing up for its biggest Black Friday deals event ever.
Weekly News Summary – 7th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
Strong Year For Lincolnshire Co-op, Boosted By Sales Of Local
Food
The Lincolnshire Co-op has broken the £300m sales mark for the first time in its 155-year history, thanks to a strong
performance in its food retail business.
In the year to 3 September 2016, the society saw its total sales rise by £9m to £301m and operating profit increase from
£15.7m to £18.7m.
Its 80-plus Food stores throughout Lincolnshire, Newark and the surrounding area, saw sales rise by 6.9%. The society
said that local goods continued to prove popular with its own bakers Gadsby’s, increasing sales by 7% and sales of the
‘Love Local’ range, featuring local meat and goods from small producers, increasing by 9%
In its pharmacies, 5.5m prescriptions were dispensed and income rose by 3.4%.
Chief Executive Lincolnshire Co-op Ursula Lidbetter said: “We’re a local business and we’ve had a fantastic year thanks to
the support of our 260,000 members, who live, work and shop in this area.
“We’re successful and able to reach milestones such as £300m of sales or recruiting almost 25,000 new members because
customers know we offer something different as a co-operative.
“People choose Lincolnshire Co-op because of our great people and range of services, but also because they know every
penny spent with us makes a difference.”
Source: NamNews 7th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
Morrisons Launches Christmas Ad Campaign; Fake John Lewis
Advert Fools Thousands
With less than 50 days till Christmas, Morrisons has become the first of the big four supermarkets to launch its festive ad campaign.
The first of two ads (see below), which airs on TV today, represents a continuation of the slogan ‘Morrisons Makes It’, which was
introduced earlier this year. Aimed at giving the brand a clear point of difference over its rivals, it features real-life staff including
butchers and bakers who prepare traditional Christmas turkey and mince pies in-store.
Morrisons Marketing Director Andy Atkinson said: “Christmas is a special time of the year where families and friends gather together.
Our adverts show our staff, the real heroes of our business, working hard to prepare festive food, offering great service and advice,
and helping customers to create their own special moments at home with their family and loved ones.”
Meanwhile, the customary annual excitement about the John Lewis Christmas ad had a false start this weekend after a fake ad
launched online had thousands fooled into thinking it was the real thing.
The 75-second video (see below) was released on YouTube under the title ‘John Lewis Christmas Advert 2016 – The Snowglobe’ and
has now received almost half a million views. However, the advert, which has many of the traits of past John Lewis Christmas
compaigns, was in fact produced by Nick Jablonka, an A-level media student, who produced the video earlier in the year to go with
an essay on how successful John Lewis’ marketing campaigns had become.
In a note under the video, Jablonka says: “I uploaded this video with no intention of it becoming so popular.
“This definetly isn’t the official John Lewis advert. I wasn’t going to upload it at all, the title and the video are as it was submitted so
I really didn’t mean for the confusion. Although I really appreciate the overwhelming comments, I do believe this piece could do with
a lot of work as it was done in around 2 weeks from start to finish.”
He added: “To clarify, I do not affiliate myself with John Lewis or any of their production company’s, this video is nothing more than
a showcase of my last years media work.”
However, a number of commenters praised the quality of video saying they were surprised when they realised it wasn’t the real
thing.
The official John Lewis ad is expected to launch on Thursday and reportedly cost around £7m to produce.
Source: NamNews 7th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
Big 4 reduce new store expansion by two thirds
The Big 4 have halted store expansion by cancelling two thirds of plans to build new stores since 2014.
According to the figures compiled for The Telegraph, Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Morrisons have only filed for one supermarket
planning application each this year, compared with 20 two years ago.
Tesco and Sainsbury’s have instead opted to focus on their convenience store properties with 19 out of 20 planning
applications opting for smaller stores.
“These latest figures confirm that the large supermarkets are well and truly out of the 'space race’ and that the strategy
for them is now to focus on price competition and customer offer rather than increasing footprint," Barbour ABI chief
economist Michael Dall, who conducted the research, told The Telegraph.
As footfall continues to decline retailers are attempting to attract shoppers with concessions, seen in the recent
acquisition of Argos which will see over 200 collection points be added to Sainsbury’s stores before Christmas.
Source: Retail Gazette 7th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
Marks and Spencer to close 60 stores and focus on food
Marks and Spencer has announced the planned closure of 60 stores at it announced financial results for the six months ending 1 October
2016.
The retailer announced a further drop to its profits and confirmed that 30 of its UK stores will close. The business also announced plans to
withdraw from ten countries.
These are tough decision, but vital to building a future M&S that is simpler, more relevant, multi-channel and focused on
delivering sustainable returns.”
Additionally, 100 UK stores will be revamped in line with the business’ plan to refocus its efforts on food as its fashion business continues to
struggle. The plans will see 200 Simply Food stores open across the UK.
53 loss-making stores across the world will also close in the next year, in a bid to cut losses of £45m. However, Marks and Spencer said
that it would continue to serve consumers in these regions via franchise agreements.
International stores to survive the cut include Ireland, Hong Kong and the Czech Republic.
Steve Rowe, CEO at Marks and Spencer, said: “Our aim is to build a sustainable business which will delight our customers, provide a robust
foundation for future growth and deliver value for our shareholders in the long term.”
Despite the announcement, the retailer said that its fashion business was showing “early signs” of recovery. However, sales were still down
5.3%.
Marks and Spencer is aiming to operate from fewer, but better, clothing and home stores with more Simply Food outlets in a bid to better
reflect changing shopping patterns.
Rowe added: “These are tough decision, but vital to building a future M&S that is simpler, more relevant, multi-channel and focused on
delivering sustainable returns.”
Earlier this year, Marks and Spencer announced that it was cutting 525 head office jobs in a bid to cut costs. More than half of these job
losses were said to impact contractors.
In July, Marks and Spencer reported its biggest drop in clothing sales since 2008 as like-for-like purchases dropped almost 9%. At the time,
Rowe said: “These are not the numbers I wanted to see – not by any stretch.”
M&S is withdrawing from Belgium, Estonia, Hungary, Lithunia, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and will also close ten stores in
China and seven in France
Source: Cosmetics Business 8th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
Retail Sector Sees Strongest Growth Since January
Latest figures from the BRC and KPMG show that total retail sales rose 2.4% in October, the strongest growth since
January and clearly ahead of the 3-month and 12-month averages, both at 1.1%. Overall like-for-like sales increased by
1.7%
Over the three-months to October, food sales increased 0.1% on a like-for-like basis and 1.5% on a total basis, well
ahead of the 12-month total average growth of 0.6%.
Meanwhile, non-food retail sales rose 0.6% on a like-for-like basis and 0.8% on a total basis. This represents a pick-up
versus September but remains below the 12-month total average growth of 1.4%.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, commented: “It is clear from today’s figures, that
despite the inflationary pressure that’s gradually building in the supply chain, retailers are currently effectively managing
the additional cost burdens and continue to entice their customers with great choice and value.”
Paul Martin, UK Head Of Retail at KPMG, added: “It’s been a spooktacular month for retailers this October, with total sales
up 2.4% in the month – continuing the on-going theme of UK shoppers being undeterred by the prospect of Brexit.
“With retailers already a third of the way through the golden quarter, and Black Friday weekend and Christmas looming
they will be hoping to maintain momentum by capturing the attention of shoppers in the noisiest time of year.”
Meanwhile, commenting on food & drink sector performance, Joanne Denney-Finch, Chief Cxecutive at IGD, said:
“Although there’s been widespread discussion about the possible return of food inflation after such a long run of falling
prices, the tide has yet to turn, so the fourth consecutive month of sales growth is particularly encouraging for the
grocery sector.
“After a strong spike in the run-up to Halloween, food retailers will also feel optimistic about Christmas. However, concern
about inflation is definitely heightening, with 75% of shoppers expecting food prices to rise in the year ahead, up from
62% who felt this in September.”
Source: NamNews 8th November 2016
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Consumer Appetite For Black Friday Overestimated
A study by research consultancy Retail Economics suggests the novelty of Black Friday could be wearing off with just 21%
of consumers saying they will take advantage of promotions this year, down on last year’s 25%. What’s more, there is a
mismatch between consumers’ and retailers’ perceptions of Black Friday with 40% of retailers expecting higher demand
than last year compared with just 14% of consumers who said they intend to spend more this year.
Richard Lim, Chief Executive, Retail Economics said: “Despite the retail frenzy brought about by Black Friday over the last
couple of years, new research from Retail Economics shows that UK consumers may be growing tired of the event.”
He added: “It also appears that crashing retailer websites and poor online availability last year may drive consumers back
into stores in the fear of missing out on the best deals. Only one in five consumers said that they planned to do more
Black Friday shopping online this year compared with 70% of retailers surveyed who thought online demand will be
higher.
“Younger shoppers and parents are expected to drive Black Friday demand with 41% of 18-24 year olds and 36% of 35-
44 year olds indicating they will be hunting for bargains. Electricals and clothing and footwear were the areas generating
the most excitement for consumers.
“Fading demand for Black Friday is not necessarily a bad thing for retailers who would rather see incremental spend
spread across the whole of the Christmas season than discounted sales pulled forward at the expense of future demand.
It also eases pressure on capacity constraints for retailers who have previously struggled with crowded stores, failing
websites and poor customer experiences.”
Source: NamNews 8th November 2016
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Sainsbury's: Bullish about HRG opportunity despite H1 profits fall
Sainsbury's has reported lower first half profits and reduced its expectations for the second half as retail operating margin has declined. The half however was also a
landmark period for Sainsbury's as it completed its acquisition of Home Retail Group, providing it with a powerful platform for multi-channel growth.
Headline results: profits impacted by tough environment
• Underlying profit before tax fell by 10.1% to £308m
• Underlying group sales grew by 2.1% to £13.6bn; LFL sales at Sainsbury's fell by 1.0%
• On track to deliver £500m three year cost saving programme by March 2017. A new three year £500m cost saving programme will follow it
• Second half underlying profits (excluding Argos) are forecast to be lower than H1 due to further price investment and a step up in cost inflation.
• Argos is expected to deliver an underlying profit contribution to the group of £55m-£75m
• Promotional participation is down to 24% from 37% two years ago as Sainsbury's has invested in lower base prices.
Confidence about the potential of HRG
Sainsbury's is bullish about the potential of Home Retail Group to future proof itself, accelerating its strategy to be a multi-product, multi-channel retailer. It sees Argos's
ability to offer delivery within four hours or offer fast track delivery collect-in-store options on over 20,000 products to 90% of UK mainland households as a powerful
proposition that will give Sainsbury's unique advantages over its main grocery rivals. It aims to have an Argos presence installed in 30 stores before Christmas and is
encouraged by the double digit LFL growth seen at Argos's 10 existing digital stores at Sainsbury's stores that have been trading for more than a year. Around 60% of Argos
digital customers now shop in the main store, generating a halo effect on sales of 1-2%. The 30 Argos collection points form part of a rollout of 200 new digital collection
points where customers can collect Tu clothing, eBay and DPD parcels. Sainsbury's also plans to open 7 Habitat stores over the coming months.
Good progress in updating supermarkets
The HRG acquisition shows how Sainsbury's is delivering against its pledge made two years ago, to find new ways to make better use of underutilised space in 25% of its
stores. This thinking is best showcased at Sainsbury's new Nine Elms flagship - see our store visit report - where Argos, Habitat, Lloyds Pharmacy, Sushi Gourmet,
Starbucks and an Explore Learning Centre take up a third of space and provide compelling reasons for local shoppers to choose the store over competitors. Further store
openings will follow at Whitechapel and Ilford where replacement stores will be part of broader mixed use residential and office developments.
Investing in online
Online grocery sales grew by 8% during the half taking annualised sales to around £1.3bn. Going forward, Sainsbury's has invested in new capacity and new delivery
options to create a faster and more flexible offer. In September Sainsbury's opened its first online fulfilment centre in Bromley-by-Bow, creating capacity for an extra
25,000 orders per week in London, while its new Chop Chop cycle one hour delivery service in Pimlico and Wandsworth is a UK first for a food retailer.
Further growth in convenience
Convenience sales grew by over 6% taking annualised sales to around £2.4bn. During the period Sainsbury's opened 16 new convenience stores and began trialling six
Sainsbury's Locals as franchises in partnership with Blackburn-based forecourt operator, Euro Garages.
Strategic investments in quality food
Though LFL food sales declined during the half Sainsbury's continued to grow volume, increase customer transactions and invest in food quality. It is on track to complete
its programme of improvements to 3,000 popular lines by the end of the calendar year. During the half it launched new on-the-go breakfast, lunch and snacking lines and
expanded the Deliciously Freefrom range to meet growing demand in these segments.
Opportunities in clothing and general merchandise
Sales in clothing and general merchandise grew by almost 5%, driven by a strong performance in seasonal events over the summer. Clothing sales grew by almost 1%
against a declining market, enabling Sainsbury's to retain its position as the UK's sixth largest clothing retailer by volume. A new Admiral Performance range for men and Tu
Premium womenswear range should drive growth in H2.
Source: IGD 9th November 2016
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Poundland trials Pep & Co product in stores
Poundland is trialling Pep & Co product in stores as it looks to up its fashion offer, Retail Week can reveal.
The value retailer, which was acquired by South African conglomerate Steinhoff in September, has unveiled five Pep & Co
branded bays of fashion in its new Nottingham store at Chillwell Retail Park and its Enfield shop.
The offer includes womens, mens and kids clothes.
Speculation that Steinhoff would introduce elements of Pep & Co – the value fashion retailer it launched last year – has
been mounting since the Christo Wiese-backed business struck a £610m deal to acquire Poundland.
A Steinhoff spokesman told Retail Week the trial in Poundland has been running for “a few weeks”.
Analysts PeelHunt have even suggested some Poundland stores will be converted to Pep & Co outlets.
The fashion chain, aimed at mothers on a budget, launched in July last year in a blaze of publicity. The 54th store opened
in Pontypridd last week, while four more are due to open before Christmas.
It comes as it emerged this week that Poundland boss Kevin O’Byrne is quitting after just four months in the role to join
Sainsbury’s.
Andy Bond, the former Asda boss who is overseeing Steinhoff’s European operations, has taken on the day-to-day
running of Poundland.
Steinhoff also has discount variety chain – Guess How Much! – whose operations could also be combined with Poundland.
Source: Retail Week 9th November 2016
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Aldi Takes On Upmarket Retailers With New Luxury Christmas
Hampers
Aldi is hoping to steal business from high-end retailers this Christmas with the launch of its own luxury hampers.
The new ‘Specially Selected’ hamper range will be available to pre-order online from 14 November. Shoppers will be able
to choose from five different hampers ranging in price from £20 to just over £98. Each will contain a range of ‘specially
selected’ products sourced from specialist producers and British artisan suppliers by Aldi’s team of buyers.
The most expensive is the ‘Exquisite’ hamper, which includes luxury wine, pudding, truffles, champagne, biscuits and
chocolate. At £98.37, Aldi said that it is more than £150 cheaper than Fortnum & Mason’s equivalent hamper.
Tony Baines, joint MD of corporate buying for Aldi, said: “With Christmas being a magical time of indulging loved ones
with the finest foods, wines and gifts, amazing quality needn’t cost a fortune.”
Source: NamNews 9th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12
Amazon Starts Offering One-hour Delivery From Local Shops In
London
Amazon is extending its Prime Now service by offering one-hour delivery of more than 7,000 products from a select
number local shops in addition to the 15,000 items offered on its website.
Its Prime customers in selected London postcodes are now able to purchase health, wellbeing and beauty products from
the likes of John Bell & Croyden – pharmacists to Her Majesty The Queen – and fine wines and spirits from Spirited Wines.
Within the Amazon Prime Now app, customers can browse or search selection by store – John Bell & Croyden or Spirited
Wines – and create a separate shopping basket. Prime members can choose delivery within one hour of ordering for
£6.99, or delivery within a choice of two-hour, same-day delivery slots at no extra charge between 8am and 10pm.
“By working with local shops, we are increasing selection for Prime customers, from luxury skincare brands at John Bell &
Croyden to speciality wines from Spirited Wines, with delivery right to their door in 60 minutes or less,” said Mariangela
Marseglia, Director for Prime Now EU. “Local store delivery through Prime Now will expand to more shops and more
customers in the future.”
Cormac Tobin, Celesio UK Managing Director, parent company of John Bell & Croyden, commented: “The needs and
expectations of consumers are constantly changing and with technological advances we are evolving to meet them. With
Prime Now, our breadth of luxury health, wellbeing and beauty products can now be purchased at the click of a button by
more Londoners.”
Source: NamNews 9th November 2016
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Weaker Pound And More Promotions Impacts Profits At Halfords
Halfords has reported fall in its first half profit, impacted by the weaker pound, more promotional activity and increased
investment in training for its staff as part of its turnaround plan.
During the 26 weeks to 30 September, the group’s underlying pre-tax profit fell 12.1% to £40.8m on revenues up 2.2%
to £567.3m.
Like-for-like sales in its retail division rose 2.4%, boosted by sales of car maintenance and travel-related products.
Meanwhile, cycling like-for-like sales rose 4.6%, benefitting from warmer weather and the success of Team GB at the Rio
Olympics.
Jill McDonald, Chief Executive, commented: “The first half sales performance was strong, improving through the period,
with growth across all areas of our business. Our service-led offer is a key point of difference for Halfords and continued
investment in this area has led to good progress in service-related sales.
“I’m pleased with the momentum that is building as we implement our strategy. There is demonstrable progress across
the plan, with more to come in the year ahead, and the benefits for colleagues and customers are starting to come
through.”
He added: “The depreciation of Sterling brings cost headwinds. However, we have developed a number of initiatives to
mitigate the profit impact and remain confident in the underlying performance of the Group.”
Source: NamNews 10th November 2016
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Dairy Crest Reports Strong Rise In Half Year Profits
Dairy Crest has reported a 19% rise in half year profits, boosted by volume growth of its key brands.
In the six months ended 30 September, the group recorded a pre-tax profit (before exceptional items) of £19.1m,
although revenue fell 7% to £190m, impacted by price deflation in the market.
Its Clover (+7%), Country Life (+8%) and Frylight (+16%) brands all showed strong volume growth. Volumes of its
Cathedral City brand, which has recently undergone a revamp, slipped 5%. The group said that in order to maintain the
brand’s premium positioning within the cheese category, it chose not to discount too aggressively in a highly competitive
market.
Meanwhile, the group warned that a sharp increase in input costs is expected to impact the volumes and profitability of its
butter business in the second half of the financial year.
The company sold its struggling dairies business to Müller in December last year to allow it to focus on growing its key
brands. “We are pleased to have delivered a strong set of interim results in our first full trading period since the sale of
dairies,” said Dairy Crest chief executive Mark Allen.
“Our four key brands are continuing to perform well in a challenging marketplace, with strong volume growth for Clover,
Country Life and Frylight and a successful launch of new branding and packaging for Cathedral City.
“We are also seeing the benefits of Dairy Crest’s transformation into a leaner and more focused organisation, with strong
profit growth and significantly improved cash generation during the first half. Our expectations for the full year remain
unchanged.”
He added: “Looking further ahead, the significant investment at Davidstow has opened up attractive opportunities in high-
margin, global infant formula markets as well as the potential to develop new functional ingredients. Combined with our
continued focus on innovation within our key brands, this will underpin future growth and help us to maintain our strong
track record of rewarding shareholders with higher dividends.”
Source: NamNews 10th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15
Online Retail Sales Growth Running Ahead Of Expectations
In spite of the economic uncertainty facing the UK following the Brexit vote in June, online retail sales have been far stronger than
anticipated so far in 2016, according to data from IMRG and Capgemini.
Growth for online retail sales is currently running at +15.1% year-to-date (Jan-Sep) against the same period in 2015, 37.3% ahead of the
original start-of-year forecast of 11%.
With only three months of data still to come this year, the IMRG-Capgemini annual forecast for 2016 has now been revised to +15%. This
would be a reversal of a general decline in annual growth over recent years.
IMRG and Capgemini said they expect the strong growth to continue into the final quarter of this year, as shoppers look to make purchases
before 2017 starts amid recent warnings that many retailers will raise prices in the new year due to the fall in the value of sterling.
In addition, Black Friday in 2015 was notable for being largely characterised as an online event – with shops in many regions receiving
lower-than-expected levels of footfall on the day as people made their purchases digitally – and this shift of purchasing behaviour to online
may have extended into 2016. In fact, since November 2015 (which featured the Black Friday period) online sales growth has remained
consistently double-digit – although some of this was building on lower growth rates in 2015 generally, when six months of the year only
recorded single-digit growth.
The Brexit vote also appears to have had little negative impact on online sales growth – with Q3 2016 (Jul-Sep) recording growth of +17%
– which was the highest quarterly growth since Q1 2014.
Justin Opie, MD at IMRG, commented: “The last time we recorded a declining trend in annual growth rates was between 2010 and 2012,
but the emergence of tablet devices reversed that – extending the times and locations in which people could browse retail sites and making
9pm a new daily peak as people used them on the sofa in front of the TV. It may be that smartphones are now helping to provide a similar
boost – sales growth for these devices has been very strong over the past year or so, up 82.8% year-to-date (Jan-Sep) while for tablets it
is just 5.5%.”
Bhavesh Unadkat, Management Consultant in Retail Customer Engagement Design at Capgemini, added: “There is an uncertainty that
surrounds Brexit in terms of its impact, however what is pretty clear is that any impact won’t be seen in its fullest for months to come.
With this in mind it has been another stupendous year for e-retail so far, with performance up 15% on the year, proving consumer
confidence remains strong.
“The end of the year will be boosted further by Black Friday and peak season. Indeed, when considering the amount of planning and
preparation retailers have made this year compared with last year, both without a doubt will be record breaking. The cherry on top could
be the weakness of the pound as those looking for summer sun may decide to stay at home and reinvest that spend into the UK.”
Source: NamNews 10th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16
Coty reports drop in sales
Coty has shared financial results for the first quarter of 2017, ending 30 September 2016, revealing a 3% decline in net revenue.
The cosmetics giant reported a 43% drop in reported operating income from $81.7m to $46.4m in the same same period last year.
Sales of fragrances dropped 9% This was largely driven by a decline in sales of celebrity scents, although Calvin Klein also saw
revenues drop.
It certainly will be a journey to realise the ambitions we have set for the company, and while there may be challenges
as we integrate and rebuild the businesses, we are firmly committed to realising the ambitions we have and delivering
value for all our shareholders.”
Cosmetics struggle
Colour cosmetics declined 7%. Coty said this was partially caused by lower revenue at Sally Hansen which suffered from a “double
digit decline in the US retail nail market”.
Overall, skin and body care fell 5% led by a decline in Coty’s Adidas and Playboy products.
Chairman of the board, Bart Becht, said that the company’s recent acquisition of P&G beauty business was a “distraction” to its
management, in this was to blame for the loss of revenue. Becht said: "As expected, the extensive work over the last 15 months on
closing the transaction and merging the two businesses has come at a cost."
However, he added: “We are committed not only to real improvement in the trend in the second half, excluding divestitures, but also
to achieving further improvement for the combined company in the following fiscal years.”
The Chairman also said that Coty was still committed to achieving its goal earnings per share of $1.53 by 2020.
Savings on P&G merger
The results do not include the business’ newly acquired brands from P&G, the purchase of which completed on 1 October 2016. Coty
reported a $1bn saving on the previously announced acquisition cost of $11.6bn with $1.9bn in debt cost.
Becht added: “I believe the future of the new Coty under our new CEO Camillo Pane, is an exciting one. It certainly will be a journey
to realise the ambitions we have set for the company, and while there may be challenges as we integrate and rebuild the businesses,
we are firmly committed to realising the ambitions we have and delivering value for all our shareholders.”
Source: Cosmetics Business 10th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17
John Lewis 2016 Christmas advert arrives
The highly-anticipated John Lewis Christmas advertisement has been released, marking a departure from the heartfelt offerings of
the last few years.
Considered as a marker for the start of the Christmas season in UK retail, John Lewis' latest festive advert features a range of CGI
animals bouncing on a trampoline recently assembled last minute by a father for his daughter's Christmas surprise.
As a badger, hedgehog, fox and squirrel test the trampoline overnight, they are watched by an angry boxer dog, Buster, who is
locked in doors.
On Christmas morning Buster gets his chance test out his present.
Toys are now available to buy of both Buster the boxer and each wild animal featured in the advert, and proceeds from the soft toys
will go to this year’s chosen charity the Wildlife Trust.
"2016 has certainly been quite a year, so we hope our advert will make people smile," John Lewis customer director Craig Inglis said.
"It really embraces a sense of fun and magic, reminding everyone what it feels like to give the perfect gift at Christmas.
"Each year we work with a charity which fits our ad, and we hope this year's campaign will encourage more children to discover a
love of British wildlife and encourage support of The Wildlife Trusts.“
The retailer has not disclosed how much was spent on the advert, saying only that it was close to previous years which totaled
around £7 million, including production and television slots.
It will be screened at 9.15 pm tonight on ITV1 but will be available to watch online from 8am this morning.
Earlier this week, a media studies student’s work was mistaken for the John Lewis advert, which subsequently went viral.
Despite going live in June and reportedly being “rushed”, the piece gained almost one million views and had viewers fooled.
Nick Jablonka studied John Lewis Christmas adverts for his A-Levels and sought to replicate one for coursework.
A John Lewis spokesman said: "Nick is clearly very talented, we'd love to invite him to spend some time with us."
Source: Retail Gazette 10th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18
Nisa signs supply agreement with McColl’s
Nisa has agreed a deal with convenience store and newsagent operator McColl’s, which will see Nisa supply the 298 convenience
stores recently acquired by McColl’s from the Co-op.
The two companies said Nisa will begin supplying the first of the new stores in January 2017, subject to regulatory approval, with all
of the new store portfolio expected to be transitioned by June 2017.
Nisa Retail Limited chief executive Nick Read said: “This is clear progress against our strategy to be the partner of choice for both
retailers and wholesalers, as we seek to build greater scale for the benefit of all our stakeholders.
“The McColl’s contract win closely follows our appointment to supply Bourne Leisure – demonstrating Nisa’s unique ability to provide
a strong, varied and comprehensive offer to a diverse range of retail formats.
“We have supported McColl’s convenience store portfolio since 2013, and now we are looking forward to supplying their expanded
estate too.”
McColl’s chief executive Jonathan Miller added: “Nisa’s quality fresh and chilled food supply strongly complements our ongoing
expansion in the convenience sector, and will enable us to provide our new customers with a full range of high quality products at
competitive prices.”
Source: Talking Retail 10th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19
Henkel sales reach new high of €4.7bn with solid beauty growth
Sales of Henkel-owned brands reached a new high in Q3 2016, growing 3.4% to reach €4.7bn.
All of the German company’s business divisions contributed to its success, with Beauty Care posting an organic sales rise
of 2.6%. Henkel owns a number of beauty brands with top-sellers including hair care brand Schwarzkopf and deodorant
brand Right Guard.
Henkel CEO Hans Van Bylen said: “Henkel continued to deliver strong business performance in the third quarter.
Sales, adjusted EBIT and adjusted earnings per preferred share reached new highs. The successful development and the
high quality of earnings was driven by all three business units and the strong commitment of our global team.”
For this fiscal year, organic sales growth is still expected to reach the current outlook of 2-4%, while Henkel predicts
adjusted EBIT margin to rise to more than 16.5%. Adjusted earnings per preferred share are anticipated to grow between
8-11%.
Van Bylen added: “We expect the overall challenging and uncertain market environment to persist in 2016. We will
continue to focus on leveraging our successful brands, leading market positions and strong innovation capabilities to
achieve our ambitious targets.”
Source: Cosmetics Business 10th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20
Amazon UK has said it is gearing up for its biggest Black Friday
deals event ever with the launch of 12 days of special offers
Christmas shopping.
The Black Friday Sale will have deals available from day one of the sale with new deals becoming available as often as every five
minutes. More than a thousand Amazon Marketplace sellers will also participate in The Black Friday Sale, offering double the number
of deals compared to last year.
The Black Friday Sale on Amazon.co.uk will run from Monday 14 November until Friday 25 November. The company said there will
also be thousands of ‘Lightning Deals’ introduced throughout the sale - products available at a discount, in limited quantities, for a
short period of time. Amazon Prime members will have an exclusive 30-minute early access period to all Lightning Deals.
“In response to positive customer feedback for Black Friday deals, we are introducing The Black Friday Sale – 12 days of fantastic
deals on must-have gifts and products, saving our customers millions of pounds,” said Doug Gurr, UK country manager at Amazon.
“We’re also thrilled to have over a thousand small businesses featuring in our Black Friday Sale, broadening the selection for our
customers and enabling those businesses to boost their sales in the run up to Christmas.”
The most popular deals in 2015 included the 7” Fire Tablet, Fire TV Stick, Fire Kids Edition Tablet, Sony Playstation 4 and Xbox One
console bundles, Le Creuset cookware, Paco Rabanne fragrances and Star Wars toys.
Source: Retail Bulletin 11th November 2016
Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21
Quarterly LFLs over time
Source: Retailers (Waitrose and Co-op do not release quarterly data). M&S is food business only
%
Note: Trading periods vary in their length and dates.
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Q1
2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2015
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2016
Q2 Q3 Q4
Asda M&S Morrisons Sainsbury's Tesco
IRI
Weekly News update
Your window on the latest trends
in Packaged Groceries
Stephen Hall
Friday 11th November

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Iri weekly news update 7th november 2016

  • 1. IRI Weekly News update Your window on the latest trends in Packaged Groceries Stephen Hall Friday 11th November
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2 • Strong year for Lincolnshire Co-op, boosted by sales of local food • Morrisons launches Christmas Ad campaign; fake John Lewis advert fools thousands • Big 4 reduce new store expansion by two thirds • Marks and Spencer to close 60 stores and focus on food • Retail sector sees strongest growth since January • Consumer appetite for Black Friday overestimated • Sainsbury's bullish about HRG opportunity despite H1 profits fall • Poundland trials Pep & Co product in stores • Aldi takes on upmarket retailers with new luxury Christmas hampers • Amazon starts offering one-hour delivery from local shops in London • Weaker pound and more promotions impacts profits at Halfords • Dairy Crest reports strong rise in half year profits • Online retail sales growth running ahead of expectations • Coty reports drop in sales • John Lewis 2016 Christmas advert arrives • Nisa signs supply agreement with McColl’s • Henkel sales reach new high of €4.7bn with solid beauty growth • Amazon UK has said it is gearing up for its biggest Black Friday deals event ever. Weekly News Summary – 7th November 2016
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3 Strong Year For Lincolnshire Co-op, Boosted By Sales Of Local Food The Lincolnshire Co-op has broken the £300m sales mark for the first time in its 155-year history, thanks to a strong performance in its food retail business. In the year to 3 September 2016, the society saw its total sales rise by £9m to £301m and operating profit increase from £15.7m to £18.7m. Its 80-plus Food stores throughout Lincolnshire, Newark and the surrounding area, saw sales rise by 6.9%. The society said that local goods continued to prove popular with its own bakers Gadsby’s, increasing sales by 7% and sales of the ‘Love Local’ range, featuring local meat and goods from small producers, increasing by 9% In its pharmacies, 5.5m prescriptions were dispensed and income rose by 3.4%. Chief Executive Lincolnshire Co-op Ursula Lidbetter said: “We’re a local business and we’ve had a fantastic year thanks to the support of our 260,000 members, who live, work and shop in this area. “We’re successful and able to reach milestones such as £300m of sales or recruiting almost 25,000 new members because customers know we offer something different as a co-operative. “People choose Lincolnshire Co-op because of our great people and range of services, but also because they know every penny spent with us makes a difference.” Source: NamNews 7th November 2016
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4 Morrisons Launches Christmas Ad Campaign; Fake John Lewis Advert Fools Thousands With less than 50 days till Christmas, Morrisons has become the first of the big four supermarkets to launch its festive ad campaign. The first of two ads (see below), which airs on TV today, represents a continuation of the slogan ‘Morrisons Makes It’, which was introduced earlier this year. Aimed at giving the brand a clear point of difference over its rivals, it features real-life staff including butchers and bakers who prepare traditional Christmas turkey and mince pies in-store. Morrisons Marketing Director Andy Atkinson said: “Christmas is a special time of the year where families and friends gather together. Our adverts show our staff, the real heroes of our business, working hard to prepare festive food, offering great service and advice, and helping customers to create their own special moments at home with their family and loved ones.” Meanwhile, the customary annual excitement about the John Lewis Christmas ad had a false start this weekend after a fake ad launched online had thousands fooled into thinking it was the real thing. The 75-second video (see below) was released on YouTube under the title ‘John Lewis Christmas Advert 2016 – The Snowglobe’ and has now received almost half a million views. However, the advert, which has many of the traits of past John Lewis Christmas compaigns, was in fact produced by Nick Jablonka, an A-level media student, who produced the video earlier in the year to go with an essay on how successful John Lewis’ marketing campaigns had become. In a note under the video, Jablonka says: “I uploaded this video with no intention of it becoming so popular. “This definetly isn’t the official John Lewis advert. I wasn’t going to upload it at all, the title and the video are as it was submitted so I really didn’t mean for the confusion. Although I really appreciate the overwhelming comments, I do believe this piece could do with a lot of work as it was done in around 2 weeks from start to finish.” He added: “To clarify, I do not affiliate myself with John Lewis or any of their production company’s, this video is nothing more than a showcase of my last years media work.” However, a number of commenters praised the quality of video saying they were surprised when they realised it wasn’t the real thing. The official John Lewis ad is expected to launch on Thursday and reportedly cost around £7m to produce. Source: NamNews 7th November 2016
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5 Big 4 reduce new store expansion by two thirds The Big 4 have halted store expansion by cancelling two thirds of plans to build new stores since 2014. According to the figures compiled for The Telegraph, Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Morrisons have only filed for one supermarket planning application each this year, compared with 20 two years ago. Tesco and Sainsbury’s have instead opted to focus on their convenience store properties with 19 out of 20 planning applications opting for smaller stores. “These latest figures confirm that the large supermarkets are well and truly out of the 'space race’ and that the strategy for them is now to focus on price competition and customer offer rather than increasing footprint," Barbour ABI chief economist Michael Dall, who conducted the research, told The Telegraph. As footfall continues to decline retailers are attempting to attract shoppers with concessions, seen in the recent acquisition of Argos which will see over 200 collection points be added to Sainsbury’s stores before Christmas. Source: Retail Gazette 7th November 2016
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6 Marks and Spencer to close 60 stores and focus on food Marks and Spencer has announced the planned closure of 60 stores at it announced financial results for the six months ending 1 October 2016. The retailer announced a further drop to its profits and confirmed that 30 of its UK stores will close. The business also announced plans to withdraw from ten countries. These are tough decision, but vital to building a future M&S that is simpler, more relevant, multi-channel and focused on delivering sustainable returns.” Additionally, 100 UK stores will be revamped in line with the business’ plan to refocus its efforts on food as its fashion business continues to struggle. The plans will see 200 Simply Food stores open across the UK. 53 loss-making stores across the world will also close in the next year, in a bid to cut losses of £45m. However, Marks and Spencer said that it would continue to serve consumers in these regions via franchise agreements. International stores to survive the cut include Ireland, Hong Kong and the Czech Republic. Steve Rowe, CEO at Marks and Spencer, said: “Our aim is to build a sustainable business which will delight our customers, provide a robust foundation for future growth and deliver value for our shareholders in the long term.” Despite the announcement, the retailer said that its fashion business was showing “early signs” of recovery. However, sales were still down 5.3%. Marks and Spencer is aiming to operate from fewer, but better, clothing and home stores with more Simply Food outlets in a bid to better reflect changing shopping patterns. Rowe added: “These are tough decision, but vital to building a future M&S that is simpler, more relevant, multi-channel and focused on delivering sustainable returns.” Earlier this year, Marks and Spencer announced that it was cutting 525 head office jobs in a bid to cut costs. More than half of these job losses were said to impact contractors. In July, Marks and Spencer reported its biggest drop in clothing sales since 2008 as like-for-like purchases dropped almost 9%. At the time, Rowe said: “These are not the numbers I wanted to see – not by any stretch.” M&S is withdrawing from Belgium, Estonia, Hungary, Lithunia, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and will also close ten stores in China and seven in France Source: Cosmetics Business 8th November 2016
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7 Retail Sector Sees Strongest Growth Since January Latest figures from the BRC and KPMG show that total retail sales rose 2.4% in October, the strongest growth since January and clearly ahead of the 3-month and 12-month averages, both at 1.1%. Overall like-for-like sales increased by 1.7% Over the three-months to October, food sales increased 0.1% on a like-for-like basis and 1.5% on a total basis, well ahead of the 12-month total average growth of 0.6%. Meanwhile, non-food retail sales rose 0.6% on a like-for-like basis and 0.8% on a total basis. This represents a pick-up versus September but remains below the 12-month total average growth of 1.4%. Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, commented: “It is clear from today’s figures, that despite the inflationary pressure that’s gradually building in the supply chain, retailers are currently effectively managing the additional cost burdens and continue to entice their customers with great choice and value.” Paul Martin, UK Head Of Retail at KPMG, added: “It’s been a spooktacular month for retailers this October, with total sales up 2.4% in the month – continuing the on-going theme of UK shoppers being undeterred by the prospect of Brexit. “With retailers already a third of the way through the golden quarter, and Black Friday weekend and Christmas looming they will be hoping to maintain momentum by capturing the attention of shoppers in the noisiest time of year.” Meanwhile, commenting on food & drink sector performance, Joanne Denney-Finch, Chief Cxecutive at IGD, said: “Although there’s been widespread discussion about the possible return of food inflation after such a long run of falling prices, the tide has yet to turn, so the fourth consecutive month of sales growth is particularly encouraging for the grocery sector. “After a strong spike in the run-up to Halloween, food retailers will also feel optimistic about Christmas. However, concern about inflation is definitely heightening, with 75% of shoppers expecting food prices to rise in the year ahead, up from 62% who felt this in September.” Source: NamNews 8th November 2016
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8 Consumer Appetite For Black Friday Overestimated A study by research consultancy Retail Economics suggests the novelty of Black Friday could be wearing off with just 21% of consumers saying they will take advantage of promotions this year, down on last year’s 25%. What’s more, there is a mismatch between consumers’ and retailers’ perceptions of Black Friday with 40% of retailers expecting higher demand than last year compared with just 14% of consumers who said they intend to spend more this year. Richard Lim, Chief Executive, Retail Economics said: “Despite the retail frenzy brought about by Black Friday over the last couple of years, new research from Retail Economics shows that UK consumers may be growing tired of the event.” He added: “It also appears that crashing retailer websites and poor online availability last year may drive consumers back into stores in the fear of missing out on the best deals. Only one in five consumers said that they planned to do more Black Friday shopping online this year compared with 70% of retailers surveyed who thought online demand will be higher. “Younger shoppers and parents are expected to drive Black Friday demand with 41% of 18-24 year olds and 36% of 35- 44 year olds indicating they will be hunting for bargains. Electricals and clothing and footwear were the areas generating the most excitement for consumers. “Fading demand for Black Friday is not necessarily a bad thing for retailers who would rather see incremental spend spread across the whole of the Christmas season than discounted sales pulled forward at the expense of future demand. It also eases pressure on capacity constraints for retailers who have previously struggled with crowded stores, failing websites and poor customer experiences.” Source: NamNews 8th November 2016
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9 Sainsbury's: Bullish about HRG opportunity despite H1 profits fall Sainsbury's has reported lower first half profits and reduced its expectations for the second half as retail operating margin has declined. The half however was also a landmark period for Sainsbury's as it completed its acquisition of Home Retail Group, providing it with a powerful platform for multi-channel growth. Headline results: profits impacted by tough environment • Underlying profit before tax fell by 10.1% to £308m • Underlying group sales grew by 2.1% to £13.6bn; LFL sales at Sainsbury's fell by 1.0% • On track to deliver £500m three year cost saving programme by March 2017. A new three year £500m cost saving programme will follow it • Second half underlying profits (excluding Argos) are forecast to be lower than H1 due to further price investment and a step up in cost inflation. • Argos is expected to deliver an underlying profit contribution to the group of £55m-£75m • Promotional participation is down to 24% from 37% two years ago as Sainsbury's has invested in lower base prices. Confidence about the potential of HRG Sainsbury's is bullish about the potential of Home Retail Group to future proof itself, accelerating its strategy to be a multi-product, multi-channel retailer. It sees Argos's ability to offer delivery within four hours or offer fast track delivery collect-in-store options on over 20,000 products to 90% of UK mainland households as a powerful proposition that will give Sainsbury's unique advantages over its main grocery rivals. It aims to have an Argos presence installed in 30 stores before Christmas and is encouraged by the double digit LFL growth seen at Argos's 10 existing digital stores at Sainsbury's stores that have been trading for more than a year. Around 60% of Argos digital customers now shop in the main store, generating a halo effect on sales of 1-2%. The 30 Argos collection points form part of a rollout of 200 new digital collection points where customers can collect Tu clothing, eBay and DPD parcels. Sainsbury's also plans to open 7 Habitat stores over the coming months. Good progress in updating supermarkets The HRG acquisition shows how Sainsbury's is delivering against its pledge made two years ago, to find new ways to make better use of underutilised space in 25% of its stores. This thinking is best showcased at Sainsbury's new Nine Elms flagship - see our store visit report - where Argos, Habitat, Lloyds Pharmacy, Sushi Gourmet, Starbucks and an Explore Learning Centre take up a third of space and provide compelling reasons for local shoppers to choose the store over competitors. Further store openings will follow at Whitechapel and Ilford where replacement stores will be part of broader mixed use residential and office developments. Investing in online Online grocery sales grew by 8% during the half taking annualised sales to around £1.3bn. Going forward, Sainsbury's has invested in new capacity and new delivery options to create a faster and more flexible offer. In September Sainsbury's opened its first online fulfilment centre in Bromley-by-Bow, creating capacity for an extra 25,000 orders per week in London, while its new Chop Chop cycle one hour delivery service in Pimlico and Wandsworth is a UK first for a food retailer. Further growth in convenience Convenience sales grew by over 6% taking annualised sales to around £2.4bn. During the period Sainsbury's opened 16 new convenience stores and began trialling six Sainsbury's Locals as franchises in partnership with Blackburn-based forecourt operator, Euro Garages. Strategic investments in quality food Though LFL food sales declined during the half Sainsbury's continued to grow volume, increase customer transactions and invest in food quality. It is on track to complete its programme of improvements to 3,000 popular lines by the end of the calendar year. During the half it launched new on-the-go breakfast, lunch and snacking lines and expanded the Deliciously Freefrom range to meet growing demand in these segments. Opportunities in clothing and general merchandise Sales in clothing and general merchandise grew by almost 5%, driven by a strong performance in seasonal events over the summer. Clothing sales grew by almost 1% against a declining market, enabling Sainsbury's to retain its position as the UK's sixth largest clothing retailer by volume. A new Admiral Performance range for men and Tu Premium womenswear range should drive growth in H2. Source: IGD 9th November 2016
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10 Poundland trials Pep & Co product in stores Poundland is trialling Pep & Co product in stores as it looks to up its fashion offer, Retail Week can reveal. The value retailer, which was acquired by South African conglomerate Steinhoff in September, has unveiled five Pep & Co branded bays of fashion in its new Nottingham store at Chillwell Retail Park and its Enfield shop. The offer includes womens, mens and kids clothes. Speculation that Steinhoff would introduce elements of Pep & Co – the value fashion retailer it launched last year – has been mounting since the Christo Wiese-backed business struck a £610m deal to acquire Poundland. A Steinhoff spokesman told Retail Week the trial in Poundland has been running for “a few weeks”. Analysts PeelHunt have even suggested some Poundland stores will be converted to Pep & Co outlets. The fashion chain, aimed at mothers on a budget, launched in July last year in a blaze of publicity. The 54th store opened in Pontypridd last week, while four more are due to open before Christmas. It comes as it emerged this week that Poundland boss Kevin O’Byrne is quitting after just four months in the role to join Sainsbury’s. Andy Bond, the former Asda boss who is overseeing Steinhoff’s European operations, has taken on the day-to-day running of Poundland. Steinhoff also has discount variety chain – Guess How Much! – whose operations could also be combined with Poundland. Source: Retail Week 9th November 2016
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11 Aldi Takes On Upmarket Retailers With New Luxury Christmas Hampers Aldi is hoping to steal business from high-end retailers this Christmas with the launch of its own luxury hampers. The new ‘Specially Selected’ hamper range will be available to pre-order online from 14 November. Shoppers will be able to choose from five different hampers ranging in price from £20 to just over £98. Each will contain a range of ‘specially selected’ products sourced from specialist producers and British artisan suppliers by Aldi’s team of buyers. The most expensive is the ‘Exquisite’ hamper, which includes luxury wine, pudding, truffles, champagne, biscuits and chocolate. At £98.37, Aldi said that it is more than £150 cheaper than Fortnum & Mason’s equivalent hamper. Tony Baines, joint MD of corporate buying for Aldi, said: “With Christmas being a magical time of indulging loved ones with the finest foods, wines and gifts, amazing quality needn’t cost a fortune.” Source: NamNews 9th November 2016
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12 Amazon Starts Offering One-hour Delivery From Local Shops In London Amazon is extending its Prime Now service by offering one-hour delivery of more than 7,000 products from a select number local shops in addition to the 15,000 items offered on its website. Its Prime customers in selected London postcodes are now able to purchase health, wellbeing and beauty products from the likes of John Bell & Croyden – pharmacists to Her Majesty The Queen – and fine wines and spirits from Spirited Wines. Within the Amazon Prime Now app, customers can browse or search selection by store – John Bell & Croyden or Spirited Wines – and create a separate shopping basket. Prime members can choose delivery within one hour of ordering for £6.99, or delivery within a choice of two-hour, same-day delivery slots at no extra charge between 8am and 10pm. “By working with local shops, we are increasing selection for Prime customers, from luxury skincare brands at John Bell & Croyden to speciality wines from Spirited Wines, with delivery right to their door in 60 minutes or less,” said Mariangela Marseglia, Director for Prime Now EU. “Local store delivery through Prime Now will expand to more shops and more customers in the future.” Cormac Tobin, Celesio UK Managing Director, parent company of John Bell & Croyden, commented: “The needs and expectations of consumers are constantly changing and with technological advances we are evolving to meet them. With Prime Now, our breadth of luxury health, wellbeing and beauty products can now be purchased at the click of a button by more Londoners.” Source: NamNews 9th November 2016
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13 Weaker Pound And More Promotions Impacts Profits At Halfords Halfords has reported fall in its first half profit, impacted by the weaker pound, more promotional activity and increased investment in training for its staff as part of its turnaround plan. During the 26 weeks to 30 September, the group’s underlying pre-tax profit fell 12.1% to £40.8m on revenues up 2.2% to £567.3m. Like-for-like sales in its retail division rose 2.4%, boosted by sales of car maintenance and travel-related products. Meanwhile, cycling like-for-like sales rose 4.6%, benefitting from warmer weather and the success of Team GB at the Rio Olympics. Jill McDonald, Chief Executive, commented: “The first half sales performance was strong, improving through the period, with growth across all areas of our business. Our service-led offer is a key point of difference for Halfords and continued investment in this area has led to good progress in service-related sales. “I’m pleased with the momentum that is building as we implement our strategy. There is demonstrable progress across the plan, with more to come in the year ahead, and the benefits for colleagues and customers are starting to come through.” He added: “The depreciation of Sterling brings cost headwinds. However, we have developed a number of initiatives to mitigate the profit impact and remain confident in the underlying performance of the Group.” Source: NamNews 10th November 2016
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14 Dairy Crest Reports Strong Rise In Half Year Profits Dairy Crest has reported a 19% rise in half year profits, boosted by volume growth of its key brands. In the six months ended 30 September, the group recorded a pre-tax profit (before exceptional items) of £19.1m, although revenue fell 7% to £190m, impacted by price deflation in the market. Its Clover (+7%), Country Life (+8%) and Frylight (+16%) brands all showed strong volume growth. Volumes of its Cathedral City brand, which has recently undergone a revamp, slipped 5%. The group said that in order to maintain the brand’s premium positioning within the cheese category, it chose not to discount too aggressively in a highly competitive market. Meanwhile, the group warned that a sharp increase in input costs is expected to impact the volumes and profitability of its butter business in the second half of the financial year. The company sold its struggling dairies business to Müller in December last year to allow it to focus on growing its key brands. “We are pleased to have delivered a strong set of interim results in our first full trading period since the sale of dairies,” said Dairy Crest chief executive Mark Allen. “Our four key brands are continuing to perform well in a challenging marketplace, with strong volume growth for Clover, Country Life and Frylight and a successful launch of new branding and packaging for Cathedral City. “We are also seeing the benefits of Dairy Crest’s transformation into a leaner and more focused organisation, with strong profit growth and significantly improved cash generation during the first half. Our expectations for the full year remain unchanged.” He added: “Looking further ahead, the significant investment at Davidstow has opened up attractive opportunities in high- margin, global infant formula markets as well as the potential to develop new functional ingredients. Combined with our continued focus on innovation within our key brands, this will underpin future growth and help us to maintain our strong track record of rewarding shareholders with higher dividends.” Source: NamNews 10th November 2016
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15 Online Retail Sales Growth Running Ahead Of Expectations In spite of the economic uncertainty facing the UK following the Brexit vote in June, online retail sales have been far stronger than anticipated so far in 2016, according to data from IMRG and Capgemini. Growth for online retail sales is currently running at +15.1% year-to-date (Jan-Sep) against the same period in 2015, 37.3% ahead of the original start-of-year forecast of 11%. With only three months of data still to come this year, the IMRG-Capgemini annual forecast for 2016 has now been revised to +15%. This would be a reversal of a general decline in annual growth over recent years. IMRG and Capgemini said they expect the strong growth to continue into the final quarter of this year, as shoppers look to make purchases before 2017 starts amid recent warnings that many retailers will raise prices in the new year due to the fall in the value of sterling. In addition, Black Friday in 2015 was notable for being largely characterised as an online event – with shops in many regions receiving lower-than-expected levels of footfall on the day as people made their purchases digitally – and this shift of purchasing behaviour to online may have extended into 2016. In fact, since November 2015 (which featured the Black Friday period) online sales growth has remained consistently double-digit – although some of this was building on lower growth rates in 2015 generally, when six months of the year only recorded single-digit growth. The Brexit vote also appears to have had little negative impact on online sales growth – with Q3 2016 (Jul-Sep) recording growth of +17% – which was the highest quarterly growth since Q1 2014. Justin Opie, MD at IMRG, commented: “The last time we recorded a declining trend in annual growth rates was between 2010 and 2012, but the emergence of tablet devices reversed that – extending the times and locations in which people could browse retail sites and making 9pm a new daily peak as people used them on the sofa in front of the TV. It may be that smartphones are now helping to provide a similar boost – sales growth for these devices has been very strong over the past year or so, up 82.8% year-to-date (Jan-Sep) while for tablets it is just 5.5%.” Bhavesh Unadkat, Management Consultant in Retail Customer Engagement Design at Capgemini, added: “There is an uncertainty that surrounds Brexit in terms of its impact, however what is pretty clear is that any impact won’t be seen in its fullest for months to come. With this in mind it has been another stupendous year for e-retail so far, with performance up 15% on the year, proving consumer confidence remains strong. “The end of the year will be boosted further by Black Friday and peak season. Indeed, when considering the amount of planning and preparation retailers have made this year compared with last year, both without a doubt will be record breaking. The cherry on top could be the weakness of the pound as those looking for summer sun may decide to stay at home and reinvest that spend into the UK.” Source: NamNews 10th November 2016
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16 Coty reports drop in sales Coty has shared financial results for the first quarter of 2017, ending 30 September 2016, revealing a 3% decline in net revenue. The cosmetics giant reported a 43% drop in reported operating income from $81.7m to $46.4m in the same same period last year. Sales of fragrances dropped 9% This was largely driven by a decline in sales of celebrity scents, although Calvin Klein also saw revenues drop. It certainly will be a journey to realise the ambitions we have set for the company, and while there may be challenges as we integrate and rebuild the businesses, we are firmly committed to realising the ambitions we have and delivering value for all our shareholders.” Cosmetics struggle Colour cosmetics declined 7%. Coty said this was partially caused by lower revenue at Sally Hansen which suffered from a “double digit decline in the US retail nail market”. Overall, skin and body care fell 5% led by a decline in Coty’s Adidas and Playboy products. Chairman of the board, Bart Becht, said that the company’s recent acquisition of P&G beauty business was a “distraction” to its management, in this was to blame for the loss of revenue. Becht said: "As expected, the extensive work over the last 15 months on closing the transaction and merging the two businesses has come at a cost." However, he added: “We are committed not only to real improvement in the trend in the second half, excluding divestitures, but also to achieving further improvement for the combined company in the following fiscal years.” The Chairman also said that Coty was still committed to achieving its goal earnings per share of $1.53 by 2020. Savings on P&G merger The results do not include the business’ newly acquired brands from P&G, the purchase of which completed on 1 October 2016. Coty reported a $1bn saving on the previously announced acquisition cost of $11.6bn with $1.9bn in debt cost. Becht added: “I believe the future of the new Coty under our new CEO Camillo Pane, is an exciting one. It certainly will be a journey to realise the ambitions we have set for the company, and while there may be challenges as we integrate and rebuild the businesses, we are firmly committed to realising the ambitions we have and delivering value for all our shareholders.” Source: Cosmetics Business 10th November 2016
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17 John Lewis 2016 Christmas advert arrives The highly-anticipated John Lewis Christmas advertisement has been released, marking a departure from the heartfelt offerings of the last few years. Considered as a marker for the start of the Christmas season in UK retail, John Lewis' latest festive advert features a range of CGI animals bouncing on a trampoline recently assembled last minute by a father for his daughter's Christmas surprise. As a badger, hedgehog, fox and squirrel test the trampoline overnight, they are watched by an angry boxer dog, Buster, who is locked in doors. On Christmas morning Buster gets his chance test out his present. Toys are now available to buy of both Buster the boxer and each wild animal featured in the advert, and proceeds from the soft toys will go to this year’s chosen charity the Wildlife Trust. "2016 has certainly been quite a year, so we hope our advert will make people smile," John Lewis customer director Craig Inglis said. "It really embraces a sense of fun and magic, reminding everyone what it feels like to give the perfect gift at Christmas. "Each year we work with a charity which fits our ad, and we hope this year's campaign will encourage more children to discover a love of British wildlife and encourage support of The Wildlife Trusts.“ The retailer has not disclosed how much was spent on the advert, saying only that it was close to previous years which totaled around £7 million, including production and television slots. It will be screened at 9.15 pm tonight on ITV1 but will be available to watch online from 8am this morning. Earlier this week, a media studies student’s work was mistaken for the John Lewis advert, which subsequently went viral. Despite going live in June and reportedly being “rushed”, the piece gained almost one million views and had viewers fooled. Nick Jablonka studied John Lewis Christmas adverts for his A-Levels and sought to replicate one for coursework. A John Lewis spokesman said: "Nick is clearly very talented, we'd love to invite him to spend some time with us." Source: Retail Gazette 10th November 2016
  • 18. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18 Nisa signs supply agreement with McColl’s Nisa has agreed a deal with convenience store and newsagent operator McColl’s, which will see Nisa supply the 298 convenience stores recently acquired by McColl’s from the Co-op. The two companies said Nisa will begin supplying the first of the new stores in January 2017, subject to regulatory approval, with all of the new store portfolio expected to be transitioned by June 2017. Nisa Retail Limited chief executive Nick Read said: “This is clear progress against our strategy to be the partner of choice for both retailers and wholesalers, as we seek to build greater scale for the benefit of all our stakeholders. “The McColl’s contract win closely follows our appointment to supply Bourne Leisure – demonstrating Nisa’s unique ability to provide a strong, varied and comprehensive offer to a diverse range of retail formats. “We have supported McColl’s convenience store portfolio since 2013, and now we are looking forward to supplying their expanded estate too.” McColl’s chief executive Jonathan Miller added: “Nisa’s quality fresh and chilled food supply strongly complements our ongoing expansion in the convenience sector, and will enable us to provide our new customers with a full range of high quality products at competitive prices.” Source: Talking Retail 10th November 2016
  • 19. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19 Henkel sales reach new high of €4.7bn with solid beauty growth Sales of Henkel-owned brands reached a new high in Q3 2016, growing 3.4% to reach €4.7bn. All of the German company’s business divisions contributed to its success, with Beauty Care posting an organic sales rise of 2.6%. Henkel owns a number of beauty brands with top-sellers including hair care brand Schwarzkopf and deodorant brand Right Guard. Henkel CEO Hans Van Bylen said: “Henkel continued to deliver strong business performance in the third quarter. Sales, adjusted EBIT and adjusted earnings per preferred share reached new highs. The successful development and the high quality of earnings was driven by all three business units and the strong commitment of our global team.” For this fiscal year, organic sales growth is still expected to reach the current outlook of 2-4%, while Henkel predicts adjusted EBIT margin to rise to more than 16.5%. Adjusted earnings per preferred share are anticipated to grow between 8-11%. Van Bylen added: “We expect the overall challenging and uncertain market environment to persist in 2016. We will continue to focus on leveraging our successful brands, leading market positions and strong innovation capabilities to achieve our ambitious targets.” Source: Cosmetics Business 10th November 2016
  • 20. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20 Amazon UK has said it is gearing up for its biggest Black Friday deals event ever with the launch of 12 days of special offers Christmas shopping. The Black Friday Sale will have deals available from day one of the sale with new deals becoming available as often as every five minutes. More than a thousand Amazon Marketplace sellers will also participate in The Black Friday Sale, offering double the number of deals compared to last year. The Black Friday Sale on Amazon.co.uk will run from Monday 14 November until Friday 25 November. The company said there will also be thousands of ‘Lightning Deals’ introduced throughout the sale - products available at a discount, in limited quantities, for a short period of time. Amazon Prime members will have an exclusive 30-minute early access period to all Lightning Deals. “In response to positive customer feedback for Black Friday deals, we are introducing The Black Friday Sale – 12 days of fantastic deals on must-have gifts and products, saving our customers millions of pounds,” said Doug Gurr, UK country manager at Amazon. “We’re also thrilled to have over a thousand small businesses featuring in our Black Friday Sale, broadening the selection for our customers and enabling those businesses to boost their sales in the run up to Christmas.” The most popular deals in 2015 included the 7” Fire Tablet, Fire TV Stick, Fire Kids Edition Tablet, Sony Playstation 4 and Xbox One console bundles, Le Creuset cookware, Paco Rabanne fragrances and Star Wars toys. Source: Retail Bulletin 11th November 2016
  • 21. Copyright © 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21 Quarterly LFLs over time Source: Retailers (Waitrose and Co-op do not release quarterly data). M&S is food business only % Note: Trading periods vary in their length and dates. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 Q1 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 Asda M&S Morrisons Sainsbury's Tesco
  • 22. IRI Weekly News update Your window on the latest trends in Packaged Groceries Stephen Hall Friday 11th November

Editor's Notes

  1. ‘IRI Companion Deck’ and ‘IRI Graphs Master Deck’ PowerPoint Templates About the ‘IRI Companion Deck’ and the ‘IRI Graphs Master Deck’ templates These templates contain two full libraries of IRI slides, including charts, to be used by all IRI employees when presenting internally or externally using PowerPoint. In the ‘IRI Companion Deck’ you will find slides for management and general information content and a selection of our most popular graphics. In the ‘IRI Graphs Master Deck’ you will find a more comprehensive library of charts to be used when presenting analysis and data to clients.   How should I use this PowerPoint deck? The key difference between the new companion deck and the former one is the addition of a master slides library that contains all the key slides that we need to use for consistency. The master slides have been designed in accordance with the new IRI corporate graphic guidelines. So when you use this IRI PowerPoint deck, if you want to add slides, you can: A. either copy and paste the slides from the normal presentation – what we have done up until now, but you have to be careful to not alter the style. B. or please proceed as below: Click ‘new slide’ on the top menu bar, then select an empty slide (the 5th one for normal or the 6th one for a slide with diagrams and graphs in ‘IRI Directly Usable Slides’) in the master templates library. Then, go on this new slide and click on ‘Display’ on the top menu bar. Select ‘Master Slides’ (5th option), select the slide template you want to add from the part 2. Select and copy all the content (not the title). Close the ‘Master Slides’ session button on the top right of the menu bar. Go to your empty slide and paste. This process works for master slides from part 2 of the master library, called ‘IRI Companion template library’. To add a new slide from part 1, called ‘IRI Directly Usable Templates’, you just have to go to ‘New Slides’ and select the slide you want to use. Guidelines on fonts, types, sizes and positions Correct fonts, types, sizes and positions are already set up in each master slide. If you cannot find what you need please use the following options only: Fonts: Verdana and dark grey (RGB references: 097/099/101) Sizes: Graphics, Diagrams and Position Axis maximum in 10, but minimum 8. Description in 10, but minimum in 8. Position: please use only the marked content field (4 helplines) for graphics & diagrams.   Content and Position 11 is the standard - maximum 12, minimum 10. The content always has to be set up into the content field.   Source and Position Only 9, normal type (NO Bold, Italic, Underline). Position: graphics have to be set up on the bottom left, like on the master slide ‘Basic slide w/o content field’.   Colours: Standard corporate colours are implemented in each master slide. If this is not the case, please follow the corporate colour palette (also described in point 5 in these guidelines): Normal text: dark grey (RGB references: 097/099/101). Headline: dark blue (RGB references: 000/039/118). Headlines in the content field: dark blue. Diagram description: dark grey. Highlights: orange and light blue (orange RGB references: 212/118/000, light blue RGB references: 000/159/218). Agenda: light blue.   Bulletpoints Bulletpoints have to be in orange and in some graphs in dark grey. The text has to be in dark grey.   The alignment of the different sections inside a chart The correct alignment is already set up in the master slides. If it isn’t please use the following options: Standard alignment of slide fields: Content Field: Size: H 12.09cm x W 24.71cm + Position: H 1.41cm x V 4.34cm. Heading: Size: H 1.76cm x W 24.71cm + Position: H 1.41cm x V 0.97cm. Sub-Heading: H 0.82cm x W 24.71cm + Position: H 1.41cm x V 3.12cm.   How to use graphics colours The correct alignment is already set up in the master slides. If it isn’t please use the following options only. For a chart slide, please follow the colour ranking and references listed below. Please use them in the order starting with 1: RGB references 000/039/118 – dark blue RGB references 210/073/042 - orange RGB references 000/159/218 – light blue RGB references 097/099/101 – dark grey RGB references 224/225/221 – light grey RGB references 255/255/255 – white RGB references 177/203/255 RGB references 238/182/169 RGB references 80/208/255 RGB references 191/191/191 RGB references 246/218/212 RGB references 197/239/255 RGB references 98/150/255 RGB references 202/204/197.   RGB codes should be standard in your colour palette. If you have any problems contact your ITO department or EU.marketing@IRIworldwide.com.   FAQs Q: I have chosen a master slide but I am not able to work with it. Why is this? A: You must choose OR select one of the slides from one of the library sections. You have to use them as described in point 2 above. Q: I don’t have the correct colours and the arrangement doesn’t match the master slides. What should I do? A: Please contact your local PowerPoint Supervisor or EU.Marketing@IRIworldwide.com. CONTACT If you have any further questions or problems please email EU.Marketing@IRIworldwide.com.  
  2. If we consider the state of the economy, its clear that the position is now a lot less positive than when the Chancellor and Bank Of Eng gave their last official assessment back in the autumn Much of this probably due to the deteriorating international position with the severe slowdown in China having a knock on impact on the UK economy This is one of the factors contributing to the plunge in oil prices which has benefits for consumers through much lower petrol and energy prices Commodities (fuel and food) remain plentiful - storage bunkers are so full sudden price increases are unlikely in the foreseeable future Low global commodity price changes feeding the savage price deflation we are seeing, which should mean a continuation of deflation through 2016 One key issue is the new NLW, which comes in April 2016 – a new TV campaign for it has just been launched. This is not a one-off change – the NLW will ratchet up in years ahead from £7.20 to £9 in 2020, a move that could create big cost increases for suppliers and retailers – and these may be hard to pass on Last year there was good news for household incomes – they actually rose in 2015 and In real terms, average income is back at the pre-crisis level. However, there is some evidence that wage increases slowed toward the end of 2015 Interest rates remain low – no increase is expected for some time so that should support consumer spending, but also puts downward pressure on the value of the £
  3. ‘IRI Companion Deck’ and ‘IRI Graphs Master Deck’ PowerPoint Templates About the ‘IRI Companion Deck’ and the ‘IRI Graphs Master Deck’ templates These templates contain two full libraries of IRI slides, including charts, to be used by all IRI employees when presenting internally or externally using PowerPoint. In the ‘IRI Companion Deck’ you will find slides for management and general information content and a selection of our most popular graphics. In the ‘IRI Graphs Master Deck’ you will find a more comprehensive library of charts to be used when presenting analysis and data to clients.   How should I use this PowerPoint deck? The key difference between the new companion deck and the former one is the addition of a master slides library that contains all the key slides that we need to use for consistency. The master slides have been designed in accordance with the new IRI corporate graphic guidelines. So when you use this IRI PowerPoint deck, if you want to add slides, you can: A. either copy and paste the slides from the normal presentation – what we have done up until now, but you have to be careful to not alter the style. B. or please proceed as below: Click ‘new slide’ on the top menu bar, then select an empty slide (the 5th one for normal or the 6th one for a slide with diagrams and graphs in ‘IRI Directly Usable Slides’) in the master templates library. Then, go on this new slide and click on ‘Display’ on the top menu bar. Select ‘Master Slides’ (5th option), select the slide template you want to add from the part 2. Select and copy all the content (not the title). Close the ‘Master Slides’ session button on the top right of the menu bar. Go to your empty slide and paste. This process works for master slides from part 2 of the master library, called ‘IRI Companion template library’. To add a new slide from part 1, called ‘IRI Directly Usable Templates’, you just have to go to ‘New Slides’ and select the slide you want to use. Guidelines on fonts, types, sizes and positions Correct fonts, types, sizes and positions are already set up in each master slide. If you cannot find what you need please use the following options only: Fonts: Verdana and dark grey (RGB references: 097/099/101) Sizes: Graphics, Diagrams and Position Axis maximum in 10, but minimum 8. Description in 10, but minimum in 8. Position: please use only the marked content field (4 helplines) for graphics & diagrams.   Content and Position 11 is the standard - maximum 12, minimum 10. The content always has to be set up into the content field.   Source and Position Only 9, normal type (NO Bold, Italic, Underline). Position: graphics have to be set up on the bottom left, like on the master slide ‘Basic slide w/o content field’.   Colours: Standard corporate colours are implemented in each master slide. If this is not the case, please follow the corporate colour palette (also described in point 5 in these guidelines): Normal text: dark grey (RGB references: 097/099/101). Headline: dark blue (RGB references: 000/039/118). Headlines in the content field: dark blue. Diagram description: dark grey. Highlights: orange and light blue (orange RGB references: 212/118/000, light blue RGB references: 000/159/218). Agenda: light blue.   Bulletpoints Bulletpoints have to be in orange and in some graphs in dark grey. The text has to be in dark grey.   The alignment of the different sections inside a chart The correct alignment is already set up in the master slides. If it isn’t please use the following options: Standard alignment of slide fields: Content Field: Size: H 12.09cm x W 24.71cm + Position: H 1.41cm x V 4.34cm. Heading: Size: H 1.76cm x W 24.71cm + Position: H 1.41cm x V 0.97cm. Sub-Heading: H 0.82cm x W 24.71cm + Position: H 1.41cm x V 3.12cm.   How to use graphics colours The correct alignment is already set up in the master slides. If it isn’t please use the following options only. For a chart slide, please follow the colour ranking and references listed below. Please use them in the order starting with 1: RGB references 000/039/118 – dark blue RGB references 210/073/042 - orange RGB references 000/159/218 – light blue RGB references 097/099/101 – dark grey RGB references 224/225/221 – light grey RGB references 255/255/255 – white RGB references 177/203/255 RGB references 238/182/169 RGB references 80/208/255 RGB references 191/191/191 RGB references 246/218/212 RGB references 197/239/255 RGB references 98/150/255 RGB references 202/204/197.   RGB codes should be standard in your colour palette. If you have any problems contact your ITO department or EU.marketing@IRIworldwide.com.   FAQs Q: I have chosen a master slide but I am not able to work with it. Why is this? A: You must choose OR select one of the slides from one of the library sections. You have to use them as described in point 2 above. Q: I don’t have the correct colours and the arrangement doesn’t match the master slides. What should I do? A: Please contact your local PowerPoint Supervisor or EU.Marketing@IRIworldwide.com. CONTACT If you have any further questions or problems please email EU.Marketing@IRIworldwide.com.