1. INTERMARKET ANALYSIS
A Global Roadmap including Bitcoin

2. WHAT INTERMARKET ANALYSIS DOES
• Combines All Markets into a Unified and
Coherent whole.
• Bridges Gap Between Fundamental, Economic,
and Technical Analysis.
• Examines the Correlations between Four
Major Asset Classes: Stocks, Bonds,
Commodities, and Currencies.
• No Market Moves in Isolation, the World is
Connected.

3. Traditional Intermarket Relationships
• The U.S. Dollar trends in the opposite direction of commodities.
• A Falling Dollar is bullish for commodities; a rising dollar is bearish.
• Commodities trend in the opposite direction of bond prices.
• Therefore commodities trend in the same direction as interest rates.
• Rising commodities coincide with rising interest rates and falling bond prices.
• Falling commodities coincide with falling interest rates and rising bond prices.
• Bond prices normally trend in the same direction as stock prices.

4. Traditional Intermarket Relationships
• Rising bond prices are normally good for stocks, falling bond
prices are bad.
• Therefore, falling interest rates are normally good for stocks;
rising interest rates are bad.
• The bond market, however, normally changes direction ahead
of stocks.
• A rising dollar is good for U.S. stocks and bonds, a falling dollar
can be bad.

5. Where are we now? King Dollar rules. Why?
• Abenomics is in full swing.
• Eurozone in the process of massive QE.
• China also easing.
• A global easing cycle is underway sans US
• Fed Hawks want to raise US interest rates sooner
rather than later and the market perceives this.
• Still THE flight to safety.
• Greece and EU uncertainty is dollar positive

6. Who/what is a rising dollar bad for?
• A rising dollar results in lower foreign
currencies and stock markets.
• Investment funds tend to flow toward
countries with stronger currencies.
• Stronger currencies are the result of higher or
perceived higher interest rates due to stronger
economic conditions in a particular country.
• Bad for commodities as well.

7. Inflationary Relationships
• A positive relationship between bonds and
stocks
• Bonds usually change direction ahead of
stocks
• An inverse relationship between bonds and
commodities
• An inverse relationship between USD and
commodities
• Stocks react positively to falling interest rates.

8. Deflationary Relationships
• Largely the same relationship except for one.
• Stocks and bonds become inversely
correlated.

19. Currencies

41. Commodities

56. Emerging Markets

70. Europe & Japan & Australia

73. This is what QE does!

88. Global Interest Rates
What the hell is going on?

98. Bitcoin

99. Correlation does not imply
causation

102. Bitcoin trades like a commodity
• Not like a currency, but it is affected by both.
• Massively volatile still, even though trading
has been rangebound for a few months.
• Trades mainly on sentiment and technicals.
• Still hard to trade in size without moving the
market.

103. From a correlation standpoint
• Still a very young asset, so hard to make
definitive correlations.
• Doesn’t correlate with anything for long
periods of time.
• However, there are four factors that appear to
be affecting the price.

104. 4 factors affecting Bitcoin Price
• The Shanghai
• The USD
• Interest rates
• Off exchange activity, low liquidity on
exchange

110. Local Bitcoin Volume

111. Bitfinex Volume vs Price

113. Bitcoin Conclusions
• The 200 day EMA has been massive resistance,
still is.
• Price has broken above the 50 & 100 day EMA’s
and is consolidating before a biiger upmove
• Bear markets can end in time or price. If Price
were to stay in this range, bear market could end
in mid-late July.
• Price action has been really constructive

115. Conclusions
• Shanghai remains in major uptrend look for this to continue, all Chinese Speculation is going
there despite this correction. If it changes will it go back into bitcoin.
• USD is also in a major uptrend, but has been consolidating in recent months, look for uptrend
to continue.
• Europe looks to be bottoming, do the markets know something?
• Interest rates have been repricing from really depressed levels and due to the liquidity
paradox. Is it a reset from the depths of hell? Or is more economic growth coming in the 2nd
half of 2015? Where is the inflation?
• Commodities have gotten a bounce from recent dollar weakness and interest rates ticking up,
but downtrend still intact.

116. Contact me
• Email: george.samman@gmail.com
• Twitter: @sammantic