Emerging Markets Outlook By Peter Urbani 25 November 2011
Why Emerging Markets ? “ A significant transformation of the global economy is well under way. Growth market economies wil...
Why Emerging Markets ? Source: IMF - WEO Forecasts Sep 2011
Why Emerging Markets ? Source: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective p262, IMF - WEO Forecasts Sep 2...
Why Emerging Markets ?
BRIC and Emerging – High Growth
Deflationary forces still in place
EM do not share the Debt problems
Developed Markets Outlook
Emerging Markets Outlook Note: GDP and Pop weights grossed up from 90.865% and 70.154% respectively to reflect missing cou...
What are ‘Emerging Markets’ ? Source: MSCI
Why Emerging Markets ? Source: MSCI
Why Emerging Markets ? Source: MSCI
US ‘Strong Dollar Policy’ a major driver Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
US ‘Strong Dollar Policy’ a major driver Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
Developed Markets Performance Source: MSCI
Emerging Markets Performance Source: MSCI
Market Inefficiencies ? Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
Market Inefficiencies ? Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
Market Inefficiencies ? Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
Over the longer term there is clear bias towards Value  And a general aversion to Growth* * This may just represent the la...
Over the shorter term there has been some appetite for more Growth probably reflecting investors hunt for yield Large Cap ...
Conclusions <ul><li>Short term weakness for Emerging Markets likely to persist as USD continues to rally into mid 2010 </l...
Peter (‘Pietro’) Urbani <ul><li>Chief Investment Officer (CIO)  – Infiniti Capital  </li></ul><ul><li>$3bn Fund of Hedge F...
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Emerging markets outlook ( Oct 2011 )

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Emerging markets outlook ( Oct 2011 )

  1. 1. Emerging Markets Outlook By Peter Urbani 25 November 2011
  2. 2. Why Emerging Markets ? “ A significant transformation of the global economy is well under way. Growth market economies will be the driver of the world economy in the coming decade.”  - Jim O'Neill*, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management *Author of : Building better Economic BRICS
  3. 3. Why Emerging Markets ? Source: IMF - WEO Forecasts Sep 2011
  4. 4. Why Emerging Markets ? Source: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective p262, IMF - WEO Forecasts Sep 2011
  5. 5. Why Emerging Markets ?
  6. 6. BRIC and Emerging – High Growth
  7. 7. Deflationary forces still in place
  8. 8. EM do not share the Debt problems
  9. 9. Developed Markets Outlook
  10. 10. Emerging Markets Outlook Note: GDP and Pop weights grossed up from 90.865% and 70.154% respectively to reflect missing countries. Total World GDP 70,012 Bn
  11. 11. What are ‘Emerging Markets’ ? Source: MSCI
  12. 12. Why Emerging Markets ? Source: MSCI
  13. 13. Why Emerging Markets ? Source: MSCI
  14. 14. US ‘Strong Dollar Policy’ a major driver Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
  15. 15. US ‘Strong Dollar Policy’ a major driver Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
  16. 16. Developed Markets Performance Source: MSCI
  17. 17. Emerging Markets Performance Source: MSCI
  18. 18. Market Inefficiencies ? Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
  19. 19. Market Inefficiencies ? Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
  20. 20. Market Inefficiencies ? Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
  21. 21. Over the longer term there is clear bias towards Value And a general aversion to Growth* * This may just represent the last 10 years poor market conditions USD
  22. 22. Over the shorter term there has been some appetite for more Growth probably reflecting investors hunt for yield Large Cap interest may reflect investor concerns over liquidity USD
  23. 23. Conclusions <ul><li>Short term weakness for Emerging Markets likely to persist as USD continues to rally into mid 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Longer term outlook remains for Emerging Markets to continue grow at a faster, albeit slower than historical, rate relative to developed markets </li></ul><ul><li>Clear Value bias in EM but with recent trends there has been some appetite for Growth and a preference for Large Cap probably reflecting investor appetite for yield and liquidity concerns </li></ul>
  24. 24. Peter (‘Pietro’) Urbani <ul><li>Chief Investment Officer (CIO) – Infiniti Capital </li></ul><ul><li>$3bn Fund of Hedge Funds Group </li></ul><ul><li>Head of Quantitative Research – Infiniti Capital </li></ul><ul><li>CEO – KnowRisk Consulting – Risk and Asset Consulting </li></ul><ul><li>Head of Investment Strategy – Fairheads Asset Managers </li></ul><ul><li>HNW Trust and Investment Boutique </li></ul><ul><li>Head of Research – Fairheads Asset Managers </li></ul><ul><li>Head of Portfolio Management – Nexus Securities </li></ul><ul><li>Senior Portfolio Manager – Commercial Union – Superfund </li></ul><ul><li>Equities Dealer – Junior Portfolio Manager – Mathison & Hollidge Stockbrokers </li></ul>http://nz.linkedin.com/in/peterurbani

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