1. Enrollment as a Lens on Higher Education
Our Opportunity and Our Imperative
Dan Lundquist: founder, Education Consultancy; former college vice president

2. Situation Analysis Today
1) Price tags continue to increase fueling anxiety
1) Price goes up while revenue goes down
2) But there are fewer college-ready students from
families who are able or willing to pay
3) Though they see the value of a college education,
families hedge more (negotiate and borrow) and
will “settle” for a second-choice college if it saves
them money (up front in tuition or longer-term in
loans)

3. Situation Analysis
4) 61 percent of colleges didn’t meet goals by May 1
(up from 60 percent a year ago)
4) 71 percent of private bachelor’s institutions didn’t meet
goals by May 1 (up from 59 percent a year ago).
5) 32 percent of all institutions – in violation of
NACAC’s principles of good practice – reported
recruiting students after May 1 who committed to
other institutions (up from 29 percent last year).
6) SO expenditure/revenue tensions rise…for colleges
and for families

4. The Data

5. 2013-14: Most Colleges Missed Goals

7. PRICE
REVENUE

8. Situation Analysis
• Education (and credentialing) is “evergreen” and can't be
killed.
• Its importance and value are inherent parts of society; and given
structure in the form of highered institutions BUT… the past two
decades of increasing demand and price elasticity have led to
some purposefully inefficient practices most can no longer
afford
• If allowed to continue with what are viewed as outmoded
policies and practices the structure be driven to change by
market forces (consumer choice) and regulation (government
policy)
• Kodak presumably had more business savvy than highered and
look what happened to them.

10. “Supply Chain” by Region

11. Estimated Enrollment Funnel for Higher Profile - No-Need Students: 2009
? ? AFFLUENCE?
? ? PERCEIVED VALUE?
? ? LUXURY?
? ? PRIVILEDGED FEW?
What If…?
The accuracy of the bottom-line number (whether 500 or 996) is not as important as the message the graphic
illustrates: the Supply Chain for tuition-dependent colleges is shrinking. The alert it sends is unequivocal.

12. Today’s Parents
Today’s Price
10%
27%

14. 0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
median income new car private tuition public tuition
Income and Expenses Over 40 Years
1974 numbers in 2015 $ 2015

15. $-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$9,088 $31,698 $50,627 $78,457 $111,919 $134,077 $172,791 $177,571 $238,976 $325,366
Ability and Willingness to Pay for Private College, by AGI,
2013
(4727 cases reviewed)
ability to pay per year willingness to pay per year
$0
AGI

16. “You Say”: NYSFAAA member survey data

17. “You Say”: NYSFAAA member survey data

18. Attributes that will effect affluent families to
consider a college that’s not the first choice
In a Fall, 2012 survey, 1270 Parents and 1200 Students from affluent families
(AGI $100K-$250K+) indicate top two reasons to “downgrade” are cost-related
Source: Cappex July 2012 Survey: N= 1,270 Parents and
1,200 Students; Affluent income: $100k to more than $250k

19. Future Check:
from unwilling to unable to priced-out in a generation
Why should we all care and why should we be sounding the
alarm on campus?
• Across the affluence spectrum, ability and willingness to pay is
decreasing at best.
• As ability to pay increases, willingness to pay decreases:
• more and more students are going to their “second choice”
colleges because of cost.
• If the more-affluent current parents are balking at paying
today’s costs what will the next generation of parents do?
• …the first American generation pundits predict less well off than
their parents….
• The next cohort of less-affluent parents will have an even more
difficult time paying if college prices freeze today.